Report on IT Sector

7/30/2019 Report on IT Sector

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PROJECT REPORT ON IT

SECTORFundamental Analysis

PREPARED BY:-JAYEETA GHOSHJUHI SINGHPUNEET GUPTAKARISHMA BAGRIDEVANG KARANI


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TABLE OF CONTENT

1 Executive summary .............................................. ..................................................... ...........3

2 Industry Analysis .................................................. ..................................................... ...........4

2.1 Structure 42.2 Macro Environment 42.3 Critical Success Factors 52.4 Major Players 5

3 Wipro...................................................................................................................................8

3.1 History 83.2 Business Overview 9

3.3 Summary and Investment 93.4 Valuation Summary 123.5 Investment Action 13

3 TCS................................................................................. .................................................... 14

4.1 History 144.2 Business Overview 144.3 Summary and Investment 154.4 Valuation Summary 15

3 Infosys ............................................... ...................................................... .......................... 16

5.1 Business Overview 165.2 Recommendation 18

6 Conclusion .................................................. ...................................................... ................. 19

7 References .................................................. ...................................................... ................. 20


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Information Technology is what constitutes the most important sector in the present day trend of

carrying out business. Keeping this in mind, a comparative analysis of TCS,Wipro and Infosys, the

two most top companies in IT sector, has been done to understand the dynamics of this industry.

The objective of preparing this project is to understand the macro economic factors affecting this

sector. For that, we have done economic industry analysis. Another objective of this report is to

know whether the company share price in the market is undervalued or overvalued. For that we did

individual company analysis and relative valuation to arrive at the value of the firm. Since

discounted cash flow method is the most frequent methodused to calculate free cash flows to the

firm (FCFF), we have also used this method to arrive at FCFF. Moreover we also used relative

valuation to arrive at market price of the share by using industry benchmarks.

This report also elucidates the findings of the valuation figures and presents conclusion and

recommendation accordingly about the industry and the company operating in that sector.

ECONOMY INDUSTRY ANALYSIS


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The Indian Information Technology and Information Technology Enabled Services (IT-ITES)

industry has been contributing its role in the economic development of India since post

liberalization era. The pace growth of this industry is considered as a growth driver for the

economy. India has become as IT Super Power. The performance of IT indus try can be

revealed with the evidence of its contribution to the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the

country ($4.457 trillion estimate 2011), provision of employment opportunities all over the

country, IT services and software revenue to the country.

Structure

The IT industry has emerged as one of the most important industries in the Indian economy

contributing significantly to the growth of the economy. The IT industry of India got a major

boost from the liberalization of the Indian economy. India's software exports have grown at an

annual average rate of more than 50% since 1991. The structure of the IT industry is quite

different from other industries in the Indian economy. The IT industry of India is hugely

dependent on skilled manpower. Primarily a knowledge based industry, the IT industry of India

has reordered significant success due to the huge availability of skilled personnel in India. The

industry structure in the IT sector has four major categories. These are -

IT services

IT enabled services

Software products Hardware

Macro environment analysis

The key factors driving the growth of IT Industry in India are:

Economic Environment:

Global demand for systems, software and services is a key driver of the industrys

growth. This demand has been increasing continuously and along with that the companies

have increased their spending to meet the increase demand.

Cheap skilled labour: The outsourcing of IT jobs in India by foreign countries will help

them to in turn cut the costs while people in India will get employment.

Rapid growth in Infrastructure and transportation facilities that started in mid-nineties.

Yes, we still have to go a long way yet, but we are moving in right direction.


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Social Environment:

The IT industry of India is highly dependent on skilled manpower. With the demand for

vocational courses increasing in the country, the vocational education market in India is

anticipated to grow at a CAGR of around 21% during 2011-2014. The increase in

vocational courses will increase the skilled manpower in India and in turn increase the

growth of IT industry along with other industries.

The Indian culture itself is a huge contributor. For e.g: Parents commitment to childrens

education. The importance of education is ingrained by them on their children at a very

young age. They see good education as the only means to have better standard of living .

As per the source the number of English speaking people in India ranks 2 nd after United

States though English is not the first language of India. This helps in better

communication with the people outsourcing the projects to IT industry in India.

Political Environment:

In late nineties there was partial privatization and growth in Telecommunication, and

later on telecommunication became an integral part of Information technology Industry.

The rapid growth in IT parks in India in last 10 years. Government setup SEZs

(specialized economic zones), where opening of software services companies would get

certain tax subsidies. This attracted lot of companies to setup software shops.

The tax breaks and sops offered by Indian government for upcoming software firms. Thismade India one of the most attractive markets for setting up Software shop.

Critical Success Factors

Cheap skilled labour: The outsourcing of IT jobs in India by foreign countries will help

them to in turn cut the costs while people in India will get employment.

The young and dynamic working population in India where 60% of the Indian population

is below 25yrs of age.

The IT industry of India is hugely dependent on skilled manpower. With the demand for

vocational courses increasing in the country, the vocational education market in India is

anticipated to grow at a CAGR of around 21% during 2011-2014. The increase in

vocational courses will increase the skilled manpower in India and in turn increase the

growth of IT industry along with other industries.


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Rapid growth in Infrastructure and transportation facilities that started in mid nineties.

Yes, we still have to go a long way yet, but we are moving in right direction.

The entrepreneurial spirit and Innovative tilt of Indians has lead to many leaders taking

risky decisions and in turn transform their innovations into success stories. Major stories

in these contexts are Infosys and Wipro.

The time difference between India and the West helps the western countries to get

advantage of having 24hour work cycle.

Major Players

Today India is home to some of the finest software companies in the world. The software

companies in India are reputed across the globe for their efficient IT and business related

solutions. The top 200 IT companies in India posted the highest growth in four years. The

revenues soared by 25 per cent in 2010-11 to take combined turnover to $84 billion (Rs 3,

84,250crore). The top 20 companies have contributed over 64 per cent to the combined revenue,

according to a study by Cyber Medias Dataquest Research. The major players in this industry

in terms of revenue and employment are:

Tata Consultancy Services:TCS or Tata Consultancy Services is one of the operative subsidiaries

of the Tata Group. It is the largest information technology company not only in India but Asia.

Spread across 47 countries in the globe this software company was established way back in

1978. Headquartered in Mumbai, TCS has over 198,500 employees.

Revenue FY11: Rs 29275crore

Revenue FY12: Rs38858crore

Growth FY12: 32%

Infosys Technologies:Infosys Technologies Limited was established on July 2 1981 by seven

people Narayana Murthy, Kris Gopalakrishnan, NandanNilekani, NagavaraRamarao, S. D.

Shibulal, K Dinesh and N. S. Raghavan. It is the second largest IT company in India with

133,560 employees as of March 2011. Infosys is ranked 28th globally in the list of IT services

providing firms. It has offices in 33 countries and development centers in India, China, Australia,

UK, Canada, Brazil and Japan.

Revenue FY11: Rs 25,385crore


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Growth FY12: 23%

Wipro:Wipro is the third largest IT services company in India and employs more than 122,385

people worldwide as of March 2011. Wipro is ranked 31 globally in 2011 in the list of IT service

providers. The company does business in information technology, consumer care, lighting,

engineering and healthcare businesses.



Growth FY12: 20%

Hewlett-Packard India:HP is one of the world's largest information technology companies,

operating in almost every country. HP specializes in developing and manufacturing computing,

data storage and networking hardware, designing software and delivering services. It is

headquartered in Palo Alto, California.

Revenue FY11: Rs 23,227 crore


Growth FY11: 30%

Cognizant Technology Solutions:Cognizant is an American multinational provider of

information technology, consulting and business process outsourcing services. Cognizant

Technology Solutions has beaten Wipro for the first time in the June quarter to become the third

largest software exporter from India. It has been named to the 2010 Fortune 100 fastest-growing

companies for the eighth consecutive year.



Growth FY11: 37%

WIPRO:


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SPIRIT OF WIPRO:Intensity to Win

Act with Sensitivity

Unyielding Integrity

Philosophy: Applying Thought to help clients to Do Business Better.

History:It was incorporated on 29 th December 1945 in Maharashtra as Vegetable Oil manufacturer. In1980 it diversified into information technology and changed its name to Wipro Limited in1982.In 1988 it diversified into heavy duty industrial cylinders and mobile hydraulic cylinders.Next year the company set up joint-venture with GE, USA for the manufacture, sale and serviceof diagnostic and imaging products. Its brand extension in consumer care products came with the

launch of Santoor talcum powder and Wipro Baby Soft. Till this time Wipro had issued bonusshare many times and had used non-convertible debentures to finance themselves. During 1980s,Wipro entered into the product line of computer hardware. It was the first one to launch anindigenous Personal computer. During 1990s it entered into Services. It proved itself there alsoand became pioneers in developing the concept of Global delivery Model (GDM). Today, Wiprois the worlds largest o utsourced R&D service provider. In late 1990s and 2000s, it survived verystrongly against changing business and economic environment with liberalization andglobalization which saw explosion in telecommunication and then Internet boom and bust. Itsdiversification (communication, manufacturing and technology businesses) played a key role tomake its position among top players of economy. Since GDM concept initiation, Wiproconcentrated mainly on software and outsourcing service.

Wipro IT:


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Today IT ser vice and BPO business generate 70% of Wipros IT revenue. For Q1 ending in June2012, IT services is expected to generate 76% of total revenue. Currently this segment employs135920 employees.

Current statistics:

According to March 31 st 2011 data, Wipro employs 120000 employees. The company recordedtotal revenue of 371971 million rupees, a growth of 19.7% year on year and net income of 55986million Rupees, a growth of 15% for year ended March 2012.Verticals, Products and their shares:

Business Risk: Due to companys diversification in product line, it business risk is lesser thanother players. Technology risk of IT is very high due to its sensitivity to time (becomes obsoletesoon) as compared to Hydraulic cylinders and Consumer care& lightning products. Its Debt ratio

for the past 5years has been maintained below 20%.High-tech companies should have less debtratio and accordingly it has maintained that level.It can be reduced further. Talking aboutLeverage then Operating leverage was highest in FY 2010 in past 5years and financial leveragewas highest in FY 2011.Currently both has come down, lower than all the other years. This showthat though they have reduced their risk of EBIT reduction and fall in EPS due to loss inpredicted sales or increase in financial distress their chance to multiply EBIT with lesser saleshas also reduced.


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Market Risk: Equity risk due to overall change in Sensex and Nifty is hovering around thesedays. Currency risk is huge due to its high volatility. Currently Rupee is depreciating so itshaving overall benefit as segment of IT (70% of total revenue) in Wipro is more compared toothers. Wipro has always invested in derivatives to hedge its future cash flows against foreignexchange fluctuations.

Future Forecast: In long term the demand of IT services is expected to rise due to growingdomestic demand, government initiatives and overall increase in IT usage across sectorsglobally. Just its competitors shares are increasing. In year ending March 2012 Wipro haveadded 173 new clients and has received 98.1% of total revenue from its existing client. Thisshows its strong relation with its clients and ability to join in with substantial no. of new clients.Its future seems to be alright with goings as usual with moderate hope of positive news to come.

Price Information:BSE(4-10-2012) Rs.383.05

NSE(4-10-2012) Rs.382.9

P/E Rs 19.25

EPS Rs22.8

Market Cap. 938111.06 Rs Million

52W High at BSE Rs452.10

52W Low at BSE Rs 310.20

Comparative chart of Wipro with Sensex:

(Source :http://www.equitymaster.com/research-it/company-info/compinfo.asp?symbol=wpro&name=WIPRO-Financial-Data )

We can see how price of its share is falling in last 4 months with steep fall in last week of Apriland July. One striking feature is that after the announcement of annual financial statements of FY
http://www.equitymaster.com/research-it/company-info/compinfo.asp?symbol=wpro&name=WIPRO-Financial-Datahttp://www.equitymaster.com/research-it/company-info/compinfo.asp?symbol=wpro&name=WIPRO-Financial-Datahttp://www.equitymaster.com/research-it/company-info/compinfo.asp?symbol=wpro&name=WIPRO-Financial-Datahttp://www.equitymaster.com/research-it/company-info/compinfo.asp?symbol=wpro&name=WIPRO-Financial-Data


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ending March 2012 price of shares are correcting itself to get nearer to fundamentals(Accordingto DCF valuation, share price comes near to Rs333.54.That means it can come down furtherfrom its current price(Rs 383.05,4 th October 2012).

(Source :http://www.rathionline.com/Equity/EquityMain.aspx?Url=CompanyProfile/ChartDisplay.aspx?id=39|FinCode=107685 )

Last 6 month chart(above) also supports the finding of DCF valuation.

Customer reach:

Through superior performance track record, Wipro has built strong relationship with customer. Itis shown from the share of existing customer in revenue generation (98.1% in FY 2012).It has abasket of mixed geographical clients than other companies. Its dependency on America is lesserthan Infosys. Domestic share is also substantial.
http://www.rathionline.com/Equity/EquityMain.aspx?Url=CompanyProfile/ChartDisplay.aspx?id=39|FinCode=107685http://www.rathionline.com/Equity/EquityMain.aspx?Url=CompanyProfile/ChartDisplay.aspx?id=39|FinCode=107685http://www.rathionline.com/Equity/EquityMain.aspx?Url=CompanyProfile/ChartDisplay.aspx?id=39|FinCode=107685http://www.rathionline.com/Equity/EquityMain.aspx?Url=CompanyProfile/ChartDisplay.aspx?id=39|FinCode=107685


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Growth:

Innovation has become Wipros edge. It shows pro -activeness towards evolving technologies.Wipro has already started to focus on newer technologies like Machine-to-Machine (M2M) andNatural User Interface (NUI).newer revenue streams, adapt to new needs of technology &clients.

Summary and Investment: Recommendation: Buy Wipro on decline.Wipro s fundamentals are strong enough to attract investors but current share price isovervalued.Projected Earnings: EPS shows an average growth of 5.99% YoY with negative EPS growth inFY2012 (FY ending March2013).If FY2012 is left then it would show an average growth of 10.3% YoY. In FY2012 P/E ratio would be 19.83 more than FY2011.

Major recent developments: Wipro is going to have M&A worth 1 billion dollar in near future toadd to its Intellectual property and software business. Revenue from Infrastructureengineering Products have increased due to growing demands from Europe and India. It has donesuccessful entry into Brazil and China with setting manufacturing base in China. It hassuccessfully completed a joint venture with Kawasaki. This has increased its capacity formanufacturing engineering products. In consumer care segment, Santoor has earmarked Rs 10billion milestone. It has now relationship with seven customers with size distribution of greaterthan $100 Million. In FY 2010, these relationships were just three. It has grouped Cloud,Analytics and Mobility as next technology trend which will be in hype among its customers.Government and telecom are two segments in which Wipro see challenges coming in.

Valuation Summary: Two-stage Discounted Cash flow is used. Firstly for 7 years financial statements are forecastedand then free cash flow is calculated with transition growth rate and lastly with stable perpetuitygrowth rate. While making assumptions for growth in revenue, tax rate etc views were builtconsidering economic, industry analysis, ratio analysis of the company and statistical measure of companys historical data. Growth rate was found using ROE and retention ratio.Assumptions and notes taken to calculate growth rate are:

The Beta is taken from BSE and NSE for other comparable firm and then companys betais calculated(slight deviation from the Beta value given in NSE & BSE).

Risk free rate is the rate of Indian Government bond rate (T-bill Rate) The market risk premium is taken from damodaran online site for India 2012.

Stock Price as of 04 th October 2012 is taken to compare. No. of Shares taken is as on 04 th October 2012. Midyear adjustment is taken to smoothen the free cash flow in a year.


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BSE NSE

WIPRO

Rf 8

Risk Premium 9

Beta .78 0.8

Required rate of return 15.02 15.2

Intrinsic value of share found out using DCF valuation is Rs 333.54/share.

Investment Action:Wipros market price has corrected itself in these 5months after the announcement of annualfinancials for FY2011.On 31 st March 2012, its share price was Rs439 and now it has droppeddown to 383.05.It will drop further according to the valuation done. Its fundamentals are verystrong and business goings is good. This is the correct time to delve into the pool waiting a bit aslong-term investors. Also its holding period return is more than given by CAPM for 1 yearinvestment horizon. These suggest that its intrinsic value will rise considerably. So myrecommendation would be to BUY ON DECLINE.


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TCS

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is a part of Indias largest and oldest conglomerate, The TataGroup. Established in the year 1968, TCS pioneered the Indian IT industry. Setup with an

objective of offering IT services to other Tata companies; it soon realized immense untapped potential in the global markets. By Early 1970s the company has started exporting IT services.TCS is the largest IT service provider with the annual sales of around Rs 225 Bn and a net profitof Rs 46 Bn.

The company commands a market share of 7% in terms of sales turnover. While it offers a fullmenu of technology and business services, including business process outsourcing (BPO),enterprise systems installation, network management, and systems integration, the companyspecializes in developing and maintaining customized software for businesses. It enjoys a widepresence across 42 locations with the market of North America contributing significantly to itssales revenues. The presence of office in every major centre enables it to serve the customer24/7.

Financial Performance

TCS has crossed the $10bn mark for the year ending 2011-12. The revenue reported for the fiscalyear 2011-12 is $10.17 bn. It has become the first Indian company to cross $10bn. The volumehas grown by 23.05%. The three units of TCS that have crossed $1bn are infrastructure services,enterprise solutions and BPO. The EPS is Rs 54.4 for the year 2011-12.

Comparative chart of TCS with Sensex:

(Source :http://www.equitymaster.com/result.asp?symbol=TCS&name=TCS-Stock-Quote-Chart ) Stock Price of TCS is now moving almost with BSE Sensex. It can be justified by the beta valueof tcs which is .96.
http://www.equitymaster.com/result.asp?symbol=TCS&name=TCS-Stock-Quote-Charthttp://www.equitymaster.com/result.asp?symbol=TCS&name=TCS-Stock-Quote-Charthttp://www.equitymaster.com/result.asp?symbol=TCS&name=TCS-Stock-Quote-Charthttp://www.equitymaster.com/result.asp?symbol=TCS&name=TCS-Stock-Quote-Chart


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Summary and Investment: Recommendation: Buy TCS on decline(long-term perspective). Currently TCS stock is a negativealpha stock so Sell call for short term.TCSs fundamentals are strong enough to attract investors but current share price is overvalued.Also Market price is more than its intrinsic value of the share. Hence it is not the right time tobuy stocks for long term investors.Projected Earnings : EPS shows an average growth of 10.90% YoY with negative EPS inFY2009.Last Year EPS growth is 45%. Valuation Summary:To value the company Discounted Cash flow is used. Firstly for 5 years financial statements areforecasted and then free cash flow is calculated with transition growth rate and lastly with stableperpetuity growth rate. GDP Growth rate of 6% is taken as perpetual growth rate. While makingassumptions for growth in revenue, tax rate etc views were built considering economic, industryanalysis, ratio analysis of the company and statistical measure of companys historical data.Assumptions and notes taken to calculate are:

The Beta is taken from BSE and NSE. Risk free rate is the rate of Indian Government bond rate (T-bill Rate) The market risk premium is taken from Damodoron Online. Stock Price as of 09th october 2012 is taken as present market price.

INFOSYS

Infosys was started in 1981 by seven people with US$ 250. Today, we are a global leader in

consulting, technology and outsourcing with revenues of US$ 7.075 billion (LTM Q1 FY13).

Many of the worlds most successful organizations rely on Infosys to deliver measurable

business value. Infosys provides business consulting, technology, engineering and outsourcing

services to help clients in over 30 countries build tomorrows enterprise.

Vision "We will be a globally respected corporation."
http://www.infosys.com/about/who-we-are/Pages/history.aspxhttp://www.infosys.com/about/who-we-are/Pages/history.aspx


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Mission "Strategic Partnerships for Building Tomorrows Enterprise." Values We believe that the softest pillow is a clear conscience. The values that drive us underscore ourcommitment to:

CLIFE Client Value: To surpass client expectations consistently

Leadership by Example: To set standards in our business and transactions and be an exemplar

for the industry and ourselves

Integrity and Transparency: To be ethical, sincere and open in all our transactions

Fairness: To be objective and transaction-oriented, and thereby earn trust and respect

Excellence: To strive relentlessly, constantly improve ourselves, our teams, our services and

products to become the best

SWOT Analysis

Infosys is one of the largest businesses in India with a turnover in excess of $4 billion in 2008.

Thecompany specializes in Information Technology (IT) and consulting. N.R. Narayana Murthy

and sixothers started the company in 1981, and it is now the largest IT companies in India with

its headquarters in Bangalore (although it was started in Pune). It employs more than 90,000 IT

professionals and wasfamously rated 'Best Employer in India.'It operates in a number of business

sectors from banking to retail, and its services tend to encompassed-to-end IT solutions which

includes a whole bundle of added-value solutions from infrastructure tosoftware engineering.

Thisanalysis is about Infosys.

Strengths Since the company is based in India its competitive advantage is enhanced. The

Indianeconomy, despite weak economic indicators such as relatively high rates of

inflation, has lowlabor costs. The workforce has relatively high skills levels in

Information Technology. Couple these two elementstogether and you have an operational

basis that offers low-cost based,highly skilled competitive advantage. Trained Indian

personnel often speak very good Englishand are sensitive to Western culture,

underpinned by India's colonial past.


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Infosys is in a strong financial position. The business turned over more than $4 billion in

2008.This means that it has the capital to expand, and also the basis to leverage potential

investors.

The company has bases in 44 global development centres, most of which are located in

India, although the company has offices in many developed and developing nations. This

means notonly that Infosys is becoming a global brand but also that it has the capability

to support theglobal operations of multinational clients.

Weaknesses Infosys on occasion struggles in the US markets, and has particular problems in

securingUnited States Federal Government contracts in North America. Since these

contracts arehighly profitable and tend to run for long periods of time, Infosys is missing

out on lucrativebusiness. Added to this is the fact that its competitors do well in terms of

securing the sameFederal business (and one should also take into account that many of its

competitors aredomiciled in the US and there could be political pressure on the US

Government to awardcontracts to domestic organizations).

Despite being a huge IT company in relation to its Indian competitors, Infosys is much

smaller than its global competitors. As discussed above, Infosys generated $4 billion

in 2008, which isrelatively low in comparison with large global competitors such

as Hewlett-Packard ($91billion), IBM ($91 billion), EDS ($21 billion) and Accenture($18 billion).

It is sometimes argued that Infosys is weaker when it comes to high-end

managementconsultancy, since it tends to work at the level of operational value creation.

Competitors suchas IBM and Accenture tend to dominate this space

Opportunities Domestic market set to grow by 20%. Expanding into new geographies Europe, Middle East, etc Infosys is cash rich (Around US $ 1 Billion) - Acquiring companies to increase

expertise in Consultancy, KPO and package implementation capabilities

Opening offices and development centers in cost advantage countries such as those in

Latin America and Eastern Europe

Threats


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The economic environment, pricing pressure and rising wages in India and overseas Intense competition in the market for technology services could affect cost advantages. High dependency on a small number of clients, and the loss of any one of the major

clients could significantly impact business.

Failure to complete fixed-price, fixed-time frame contracts within budget and on time Currency fluctuations Termination of Client contracts can typically be terminated without cause and with

little or no notice or penalty.

RecommendationThe intrinsic value as per DCF technique is coming to 3257.292, whereas the market price is

2506. Hence the shares are undervalued and should be purchased.

CONCLUSION

Indian IT sector has great potential ahead.

All the Three players fundamentals are strong.

Infosys is undervalued currently. Recommendations on these are: BUY/HOLD.

TCS shows immense potential with its financials but has reached its upper limit. So forShort- term traders, its a SELL call and for Long -term: Hold.


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Wipro is currently overvalued but has strong foothold on its business. Recommendation

on it is: BUY ON DECLINE.

.

REFERENCES:

Building a DCF Model, 21st May 2011, [video], by Bwinikate,,US, Available from :http://www.youtube.com/user/bwinikates, [Accessed 4th Oct 2012]

Building an Operating Model, 21st May 2011,[video], by Bwinikates,US, Available

from: http://www.youtube.com/user/bwinikates, [Accessed 4th Oct 2012]


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FINANCIAL TRAINING SOLUTIONS, DCF Modeling Training, Wall Street

Prep,http://www.wallstreetprep.com

NASSCOM, The IT-BPO Sector in India- Strategic Review 2012, Available from:

http://www.nasscom.in/sites/default/files/researchreports/Exec%20Summary_0.pdf[Acce

ssed 6 th Sept 2012]

UNION BUDGET& ECONOMIC SURVEY, India and the Global Economy Chapter 14,

Government of India, Available from: http://indiabudget.nic.in/es2011-12/echap-14.pdf,[Accessed 7th Oct 2012]

Documents

Report on IT Sector