Regional Perspectives on Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting Systems:

(GHA)-Eastern Africa

Christopher OludheDepartment of Meteorology

University of Nairobi

Expert Meeting on National Early Warning System for Agricultural Weather Management

Fairfax, Virginia USA18-20 July, 2011

Introduction• The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications

Centre (ICPAC), formerly known as the Drought Monitoring Centre, Nairobi (DMCN), is a specialized regional centre of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)charged with the responsibility of climate monitoring, prediction, early warning and applications for the reduction of climate related risks including those associated with climate variability and change.

• ICPAC serves 10 countries within the GHA

ICPAC Mission

• To contribute to climate monitoring and provide timely climate information and prediction services for early warning and mitigation of the adverse impacts of extreme climate events on various socio-economic sectors in the region. The early warning products enable users to put mechanisms in place for coping with extreme climate and weather related risksfor sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA).

Operational Activities• Development and archiving of

regional and national quality controlled climate databanks

• Data processing including development of basic climatological statistics

• Timely acquisition of near real-time climate and remotely sensed data

• Monitoring space-time evolutions of weather and climate extremes over the region

• Generation of climate prediction and early warning products

• Delineation of risk zones of the extreme climate related events

• Enhanced networking with the NMHSs, regional and international centers for data and information exchange

• Timely dissemination of early warning products

• Conduct capacity building activities in the generation and application of climate products

• Organization of Climate Outlook Forums (COFs) for the GHA countries

• Enhancement of interactions with users through users workshops and pilot application projects

• Climate change monitoring, detection and attribution including climate change modeling.

ICPAC’s Products

DEKADAL PRODUCTS

• RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION

• DROUGHT SEVERITY

• AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

• GENERAL IMPACTS

• WEATHER OUTLOOK

• CUMULATIVE TIME SERIES GRAPHS

MONTHLY AND SEASONAL PRODUCTS

• CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARIES

• DROUGHT SEVERITY• AGROMETEOROLOGICAL

CONDITIONS • DORMINANT SYNOPTIC

SYSTEMS• CLIMATE OUTLOOK.• GENERAL IMPACTS• PRE - SEASON

CONSENSUS OUTLOOKS• CUMULATIVE GRAPHS• CLIMATE WATCH – Provides an

update regarding the current and projected state of extreme climate events and their potential impacts

Development of quality-controlledregional climate datasets (stations)

Operational Data Operational Data StationsStations

COMPARISON OF THE RAINFALL RECEIVED AND THE COMPARISON OF THE RAINFALL RECEIVED AND THE LONGLONG--TERM TERM MEAN (March MEAN (March -- April 2011) April 2011)

Use of Rainfall Cumulative Graphs

Seasonal Rainfall Forecast and Interpretation of Seasonal Rainfall Forecast and Interpretation of Rainfall Rainfall anomaliesanomalies

Translating prob. into rainfall anomalies

MostMost--likely scenariolikely scenario2009 FORECAST2009 FORECAST

FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK PRODUCTS WITH

FEWS/NET

Sept – Dec 2008 Climate and Food Security Outlook

Use of NDVI in the Identification Use of NDVI in the Identification of Hotspots of Hotspots

Consensus Forecast JJAS-2011, JJAS-LTM and Analogue Year, 1999

Downscaling of monthly forecasts with regional model system

MediaMedia

Generation of tailored products during PRECOF Generation of tailored products during PRECOF Capacity BuildingCapacity Building Training with UsersTraining with Users

Turning El Nino into opportunity

• Kenya Red Cross Distributes seeds worth 30, Million shillings in Ukambani

Reaping dividends• Harvest of those seeds

today valued at 2.5 billion and a bumper harvest in Ukambani.

• Achieving food security contributes to disaster risk reduction and strengthens community resilience to disasters

Role of NMHSs• The role of any National Meteorological and

Hydrological service is to provide meteorological products and services, including early warnings for the safety of life, protection of property and the natural environment.

Requirements For NMHS To Execute These Roles

• Good Observational Network (for Surface and Upper-Air Data Collection);

• Efficient Telecommunications System (for fast exchange of data and products);

• Data Processing Facilities for product generation and data archival;

• Trained Human Resources;• An Effective Dissemination system

Observational Network Stations in East AfricaObservational Network Stations in East Africa

Raingauge Network in Eastern AfricaRaingauge Network in Eastern Africa

Situation in Kenya (KMD)• KMD issues 24-hour, 4-day, 7-day, monthly (30-

day), and seasonal (90-day) forecasts.• To improve the skill of the 24-hour, 4-day and 7-day

forecasts, KMD is now running, on an experimental basis, a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model that is giving forecasts of up to 72 hours (3 days).

• KMD also carries out real time climate monitoring to assess the performance of rainfall within a season

• Normalized Deviation Vegetation Indices (NDVI) images showing the state of vegetation (biomass) are produced every 10 days

Numerical Weather Products

Climate Data from 13 Agromet Stations in Kenya• Air Temperature in Degrees Celsius ( Maximum, Minimum,

Wet bulb, Dry bulb, Dew point)• Soil Temperature in Degrees Celsius at 5, 10, 20, 30, 50,

100 cm depths.• Sunshine duration in Hours• Radiation in Megajoules per Metre Square.• Wind Speed at 2 metres height.• Relative Humidity (%) at 0900 Hrs and 1500 Hrs.• Pan Evaporation in Millimeters per day• Potential Evapotranspiration in Millimeters per Dekad (10 -

day period)• Rainfall in Millimeters per day

Crop Data from Agromet Stations in Kenya

• Variety of the grown crop• Stage of development attained by the crop• General assessment of crop performance• Damage by pests, diseases and adverse weather• State of weeding in the farm• Plant density• Soil moisture

Product Dissemination• Press Releases, • Media personnel/KMD interaction• In collaboration with ICPAC, a number of media

personnel have been trained to comprehend the basics contained in a forecast

• Other avenues include RANET, Amateur Radios• Website • Government Organs/Ministries

CONCLUSIONS• ICPAC has been playing an important role in

providing the IGAD sub-region with weather and climate advisories and more importantly, timely early warnings on extreme climate events including floods and droughts.

• Effective early warning systems if used well can significantly minimise the negative impacts associated with extreme climate events

• Weather and climate forecasts are important for reducing risks and enhancing opportunities associated with the achievement of sustainable economic development.

END

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