Regional Growth Patterns and Scenario Planning – Futures 2040

Mid-Region Council of Governments

Regional Growth Patterns and Scenario

Planning – Futures 2040

New Mexico Housing SummitAugust 20, 2014


Who we are

Mid-Region Metropolitan Planning Organization, or MRMPO

MPOs are responsible for transportation planning activities for each metropolitan area of more than 50,000 people

MRMPO is part of the umbrella organization, the Mid-Region Council of Governments (MRCOG)


Who you are Public housing agency, or other

public sector? Developer, realtor, or other private

sector? Involved in transportation planning,

MRCOG or other? None of the above?

Albuquerque Metropolitan Planning Area:

Three counties• Bernalillo County• Valencia County• Sandoval County (part)

Two urbanized areas:• Albuquerque• Los Lunas


Role of MRCOG in Prioritizing Infrastructure Projects

Not an implementation agency

Identify high priority projects

Distribute federal funds

Ensure that projects are consistent with the region’s long-range transportation plan


Metropolitan Transportation Plan

Long-range (20+ years) multi-modal transportation plan for the Albuquerque metro area

Updated every 4 years (current update April 2015)

Projections of growth/development

List of all anticipated transportation projects in the region


MTP Questions

Can our transportation infrastructure handle the projected growth?

What roles should different modes play?

What type of strategies and investments should we pursue?


2035 MTP: Roadway

Enhancements

$3 billion in increased capacity

600 new lane miles

North-south capacity

New network

9 new/reconstructed interchanges

ISLETA PUEBLO

SANTA ANAPUEBLO

ZIA PUEBLO

SAN FELIPEPUEBLO

SANDIAPUEBLO

S A N D O V A L C O U N T YS A N D O V A L C O U N T Y

T O R R A N C E C O U N T YT O R R A N C E C O U N T YV A L E N C I AV A L E N C I AC O U N T YC O U N T Y

B E R N A L I L L O C O U N T YB E R N A L I L L O C O U N T Y

Peralta

Tijeras

Corrales

Los Lunas

Rio Rancho

Bernalillo

Albuquerque

Bosque Farms

Los Ranchos

nde

LOMAS

MENAUL

EU

BA

NK

TR

AM

WA

Y

PASEO DEL NORTE

WY

OM

ING COMANCHE

IRVING

CANDELARIA

JUA

N T

AB

O

CA

RL

ISLE

ACADEMY

GIBSON

NORTHERN BLVD.

MONTGOMERY

GIR

AR

D

N.M

. 45

PA

SE

O D

EL V

OLC

AN

UN

SE

R B

LVD

YA

LE

SOUTHERN BLVD

ALAMEDA BLVD.

N.M. 317

UN

IVE

RS

ITY

JEF

FE

RS

ON

N.M. 263

KIM RD.

DENNIS CHAVEZ RIO BRAVO BLVD.

CONSTITUTION

PASEO DEL VOLCAN

UN

IVE

RS

E B

L VD

.

19TH AVE.

RAYMAC

98TH

ST

RA

INB

OW

BL V

D.

10T

H S

T.

4 0T

H S

T

OSUNA

LOU

ISIA

NA

I-40

COPPER

SA

N M

AT

EO

0 42 Miles

11/10

L

Source: MRCOG.

2008-2035 Change in Lanes

Lane reduction

Add center turn lane

2-3 lane increase

4-5 lane increase

AMPA Boundary

New or RebuiltInterchange


ISLETA PUEBLO

SANTA ANAPUEBLO

ZIA PUEBLO

SAN FELIPEPUEBLO

SANDIAPUEBLO




Peralta

Tijeras

Corrales

Los Lunas

Rio Rancho

Bernalillo

Albuquerque

Bosque Farms

Los Ranchos

Gra

nde

0 42 Miles

10/10

2035 SE Data on 2015 No Build Network

PM Peak HourV/C

Acceptable V/C=0 - 0.89

Approaching Capacity V/C=0.9 - .99

Over Capacity V/C=1.0 - 1.09

Severely Congested 1 V/C=1.1 - 1.49

Severely Congested 2 V/C>1.5

AMPA Boundary

L

Source: MRCOG.

2035 No-BuildFirst step:Consider impacts of growth

on existing infrastructure

See what happens if we don’t build anything!

Second step:Consider impacts of growth

AND infrastructure investments

See what happens after $3 billion in roadway investments


ISLETA PUEBLO

SANTA ANAPUEBLO

ZIA PUEBLO

SAN FELIPEPUEBLO

SANDIAPUEBLO




Peralta

Tijeras

Corrales

Los Lunas

Rio Rancho

Bernalillo

Albuquerque

Bosque Farms

Los Ranchos

Gra

nd

e

0 42 Miles

3/11

2035 SE Data on 2035 Build Network

PM Peak Hour V/C






AMPA Boundary

L

Source: MRCOG.

ISLETA PUEBLO

SANTA ANAPUEBLO

ZIA PUEBLO

SAN FELIPEPUEBLO

SANDIAPUEBLO




Peralta

Tijeras

Corrales

Los Lunas

Rio Rancho

Bernalillo

Albuquerque

Bosque Farms

Los Ranchos

Gra

nde

0 42 Miles

10/10

2035 SE Data on 2015 No Build Network

PM Peak HourV/C






AMPA Boundary

L

Source: MRCOG.

2035 No-Build 2035 Build


Summary Statistics

Miles traveled by car: 16 million to 24 million (+ 50%)

Hours traveled by car: 400,000 to 740,000 (+ 80%)

Average speeds: 40 mph to 33 mph (- 17%)

Trips across the river: 492,000 to 960,000 (+94%)


Key Findings from 2035 MTP

River crossing congestion is a critical issue.

No new bridges have been proposed.

Building our way out of congestion is not realistic.

There is no silver bullet. A variety of strategies will be necessary to tackle congestion.


Scenario Planning


Scenario Planning

How have you used

scenario planning?


Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning

vs.Contingency Planning


Scenario Planning

How we grow is not a forgone conclusion

Allows us to ask: what if?

For example: What if future development takes place differently than it has in the past?


Scenario Planning

Approach that uses growth scenarios to understand costs and benefits of development patterns

Land consumption Transportation conditions Environmental impacts Economic competiveness

Integrate land use and transportation planning to ensure effective long-term policy decisions

Example from Nashville MPO

2040 MTP: Scenario Planning

IdentifyChallenges

Scenario Concepts

Preliminary Scenarios

Scenario Evaluation

Refined Scenarios

LUTI Meetings / Workshops / Focus Groups

Summer 2014Fall 2014

Futures 2040 Recommendations

Spring 2015

June 2013

Spring 2014


Growth Projections


Population Projection


Otero

Lea

CatronSocorro

Eddy

Chaves

Cibola

Grant

Sierra

Lincoln

Union

Mckinley

Rio Arriba

Colfax

Luna

San Juan

Quay

Taos

Hidalgo

San Miguel

Sandoval

Dona Ana

Torrance

Mora

Guadalupe

De Baca

Harding

Curry

Roosevelt

Santa Fe

Bernalillo

Valencia

Los Alamos

Growing Metropolitan Areas


Absolute Growth

30-Year Growth by County

Percentage Growth

Bernalillo Sandoval Torrance Valencia -

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

Bernalillo Sandoval Torrance Valencia0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Employment Projection

396,900

582,300


Key Employment Sectors

Manufacturing

Real Estate, Rental & Leasing

Arts, Entertainment & Recreation

Retail Trade

Food Services

Government

Transportation and Warehousing

Professional, Scientific & Tech. Svs.

Educational Services

Administrative & Waste Mgmt.

Construction

Health Care & Social Assistance

-10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000


Age Distribution2012 2040


Shifting Age Distribution

2010 20400%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Seniors

Working Age

Youth


An Aging Population20

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

2020

2120

2220

2320

2420

2520

2620

2720

2820

2920

3020

3120

3220

3320

3420

35

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

YouthSeniors


Generation Y / Millennials

Born early 1980s to early 2000s

3x more likely to use transit (18% compared with 6%)

63% expected to move within the next 5 years

Preference for smaller homes closer to work


Multi-Family Construction

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%Share of MF permits in Albuquerque


Regional Challenges


Regional Challenges

What are the biggest challenges & opportunities for our region

as we grow?

Regional Challenges

• Challenges Scenarios• Workshops

– Agency staff– Public health advocates– Valencia County

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 1.800

Balanced of Jobs and Housing (Locations)

Prioritizing Challenges for Future GrowthWater Resources

Economic Development

Diverse Housing and Transportation Options (Modes/Types)

Target Growth in Activity Centers

Collaborative and Equitable Process

Historic and Rural Preservation

Composite Score

Water Sustainability /

Environment

• Look at ways to improve water conservation through reuse, delivery and development patterns.

• Better understand the current water resources and future availability and how transportation decisions affect our environment.

Economic Development

• Identify the best ways to achieve economic vitality that take health and quality of life into consideration.

• Develop a sustainable, diversified, attractive, and resilient local economy.

• Work to retain families and the younger generation.

Diverse Housing / Transportation Options

• Improve roadway and trail connectivity and design.

• Create a transportation network that allows safe and convenient options to walk, bicycle, take transit and drive.

• Support a variety of housing options for people of all ages and incomes.

Balance of Jobs and Housing

• Effectively use compact development and infill to balance housing and jobs and decrease travel distances to services and transit stations.

• Reduce pressure on the transportation system by limiting sprawl development.

Target Growth in Activity Centers

• Support public spaces that foster social life with a mix of housing, retail, and workspace.

• Improve existing centers and strategically locate new activity centers.

• Provide a unique variety of great places accessible by transit for entertainment and arts, to gather, or to run errands.

Historic and Rural Preservation

• Preserve cultural heritage, balance rural character with urban growth, and respect and acknowledge the difference between our local neighborhood and regional identities.

• Ensure historic preservation in main streets and original town sites.

• Preserve agricultural land.

Summary of Regional Challenges / Needs

Climate Change / Resiliency• Pursue development patterns that make us

more resilient to climate impacts .• Consider impacts of changing temperature

and precipitation on energy demands, transportation infrastructure, and flood risk.

• Reduce GHG emissions.• Reduce how much water we consume.


Growth Scenarios


1. What are the scenarios?

Allowable Uses

Emerging Lifestyles

Balancing Jobs and Housing


Zoning:AllowableUses


Zoning:EmergingLifestyles


Zoning:Balancing Housing &Jobs


2. How were the Scenarios Created?

UrbanSim Predictive model for Socioeconomic Forecasting Based on Local Data Simulates Market Behavior Compatible with our Travel Demand Model


3. What do the scenarios have in common?

Local data (except zoning!!)

Model structure & equations

Roadway network

Regional population projection

Regional employment projection


Housing by Scenario

Allowable Uses Emerging Lifestyles Balancing Housing & Jobs


Employment by Scenario

Allowable Uses Emerging Lifestyles Balancing Housing & Jobs

Jobs to Housing Balance

West East

2012 0.56 1.34

Allowable Uses 0.52 1.41

Emerging Lifestyles 0.53 1.40

Jobs & Housing 0.71 1.27


Population Share by County

Bernalillo76%

Sandoval14%

SSF1%

Torrance2%

Valencia8%

2012 AU

EL JH

Bernalillo68%

Sandoval18%

SSF1%

Torrance1%

Valencia11%

Bernalillo69%

Sandoval17%

SSF1%

Torrance1%

Valencia11%

Bernalillo69%

Sandoval17%

SSF1%

Torrance1%

Valencia11%


Employment Share by County

Bernalillo86%

Sandoval9%

SSF0%

Torrance1%

Valencia4%

2012 AU

EL JH

Bernalillo85%

Sandoval10%

SSF0%

Torrance1%

Valencia4%

Bernalillo83%

Sandoval12%

SSF0%

Torrance1%

Valencia3%

Bernalillo76%

Sandoval21%

SSF0%

Torrance1%

Valencia3%


Roadway Performance

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

-47%

56%

31%

-37%

49%

36%

-41%

57%

29% Allowable Uses

Emerging Lifestyles

Jobs-Housing

Systemwide Speed Transit RidershipVehicle Miles Traveled


Commuting Measures

Proximity to Em-ployment Sites

River Crossing Trips Average Commute Time (Minutes)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

39%

47%

103%

59%

40%44%42%

38%

63%Allowable Uses

Emerging Lifestyles

Jobs-Housing


Sustainability Measures

Emissions Levels (CO2) New Land Developed (Acres)0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

44%

51%

31%

48%

41%

51%

Allowable Uses

Emerging Lifestyles

Jobs-Housing


Putting it All Together

All scenarios show deteriorating travel conditions.

Zoning does have an impact on roadway performance; can test other strategies.

You can have fewer acres consumed by development and less congestion at the same time.

An increase in jobs west of the river appears to help alleviate the river crossing issue, but not commuting time.

Development patterns carry different benefits and costs to the region.


What’s Next?


Next Steps:

Revised scenarios for comparison

Identify a preferred alternative

Strategies and investments to realize the preferred alternative

Metropolitan Transportation Plan development


Growth Scenarios, v. 2.0 Trend

Roadway: 2040 network Land use: existing plans & policies Transit: minimal changes

Preferred Alternative Roadway: 2040 network Land use: zoning changes and

development incentives Transit: major changes and

investments

Constrained Roadway: 2025 network Land use: zoning changes and

development incentives Transit: 2025 network


Futures 2040 MTP

December 2014 – Draft MTP for public comment

January 2015 – Public meetingsJanuary/February 2015 – Identify projects to

receive federal fundingMarch 2015 – Final draft for public reviewApril 2015 – Plan approval by Metropolitan

Transportation Board


Plan Implementation

Work with member agencies to integrate scenario planning analysis into local plans and policies


Regional Implementation

How might a preferred scenario impact housing in the region?


Regional Implementation

What obstacles might get in the way of implementing a preferred scenario?

What action steps might public agencies need to take to help implement a preferred scenario?

What incentives would be effective for developers to make housing options viable?

What other factors might need to be considered?


Questions?

Documents

Regional Growth Patterns and Scenario Planning – Futures 2040