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River Canyon CountryRural Tourism Studio
Community Tourism Visioning Event
David Beurle & Juliet Fox Future iQ Partners
The Future Ahead for tourismin River Canyon Country
Committed groups
Committed groups
What is Scenario
Planning?
A tool best used to embrace an uncertain future
Explores a range of plausible futures
Allows for the consideration of complex and interrelated forces
A tool best used to embrace an uncertain future
Explores a range of plausible futures
Allows for the consideration of complex and interrelated forces
Strategic planning optimistic linear projections
Explore Trends and Implications for tourism
industry
Develop ‘Drivers’ Shaping
River Canyon Country
Develop four
plausible scenarios
Implications for the River
Canyon Country
Preferred Future and
action planning
Importance / Uncertainty matrixRated each driver on a 1 – 5 scale
Driver Importance Uncertainty
Program for the Evening
• Develop detailed narratives for four plausible scenarios for the future of River Canyon Country(based on clusters of key drivers).
• Explore the possible futures before and the consequences for River Canyon Country
Global Drivers of Change
• Global economic• Local economic development • Energy costs• Cost of living• Trained workforce• Population change• Aging• Community collaboration and
engagement• Urbanization• Access to Health Care• Values and lifestyles
• Values and lifestyles• The economic divide• Education• Governance, regulation and
government funding• Climate change & natural
disasters• Depletion of natural resources &
loss of biodiversity• Land use planning• Lodging developments• Transportation infrastructure• Access to information and
communication technology
Global economic volatility
Local Economic development
Energy costs
Cost of living
Trained Workforce
Population change
Aging population
Collaboration and engagement
Urbanization
Access to HealthCare
Values andlifestyles
Economic divide
Education
Government
Impact of climate change & natural disasters
Depletion Natural Resources
Land use Planning
Lodging developments
Transportation and infrastructure
Access to IT
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
Unc
erta
inty
Importance
River Canyon Country Scenario Shaping Clusters of Drivers
Regional scenario shaping clusters of drivers
Ability to leverage human capacityValues and lifestylesCommunity collaboration and engagementLocal economic developmentTrained workforce
Tourism and economic infrastructureTransportation infrastructureLand use planningLodging developmentAccess to information and communication technology
Effective planning.
collaboration and actions that are anchored in
local values, aspirations and
skills.
Tourism and E
coninfrastructure
Fragmented and disjointed
efforts with conflicting priorities.
Ability to Leverage Human Capital
Lack of critical infrastructures to support viable tourism industry
Well resourced local tourism and economic infrastructures
Scenario name and brief description
Characteristics of the local society
Characteristics of the Tourism Economy
Environmental Characteristics
Regional dimensions to
consider
(What would tourism in River Canyon Country be like in 2030?)
• Population makeup/characteristics
• Distribution of population
• Landscape and visual impacts
• ‘Liveability’ and quality of life features
• Skills and educational profiles
• Industry and economic profiles
• Population makeup/characteristics
• Distribution of population
• Landscape and visual impacts
• ‘Liveability’ and quality of life features
• Skills and educational profiles
• Industry and economic profiles
Timeline for scenario formulation
Suggested Scenario Group timeline
6:30 Group meet and scope-out scenario (15m)6:45 Break into 3 groups – develop characteristics (30m)7:15 Small group report back (10m) 7:25 Short scenario name (5m)7:30 Return to main room ready to present
Resilience and vulnerability of scenarios
How would we respond under ‘shocks’?• What would happen to our communities and people?• What would our economy do?• Impacts on the environment?
Shocks?• There is an economic double dip..• Price of oil jumps dramatically
Context Content
Effective planning. collaboration and actions that are anchored in local values, aspirations and skills.
Tourism and E
coninfrastructure
Fragmented and disjointed efforts with conflicting priorities.
Ability to Leverage Human Capital
Lack of critical infrastructures
to support viable tourism
industry
Well resourced local tourism and economic infrastructures
Scenario A –Characteristics of the local society• XxxCharacteristics of the tourism economy• xxxEnvironmental characteristics• xxx
Scenario B –Characteristics of the local society• XxxCharacteristics of the tourism economy• xxxEnvironmental characteristics• xxx
Scenario C –Characteristics of the local society• XxxCharacteristics of the tourism economy• xxxEnvironmental characteristics• xxx
Scenario D –
Characteristics of the local society• XxxCharacteristics of the tourism economy• xxxEnvironmental characteristics• xxx
Tourism and E
coninfrastructure
Ability to Leverage Human Capital
Hijacked
Haiku Lou View
Adventur-mental
Jewel of Economic
Denial
River Canyon Country – Preferred Vision
River Canyon Country – Currently Heading
Tourism and E
coninfrastructure
Ability to Leverage Human Capital
Hijacked
Haiku Lou View
Adventur-mental
Jewel of Economic
Denial
RIVER CANYON COUNTRY – 2030 VISION
River Canyon Country in 2030 is a region that is engaged toward a common future with a clear shared identity. The community has worked hard to build on values of quality
education, health and creating an active lifestyle, and this has paid off in having a dynamic and high caliber workforce and strong social capital. This is reflected in how
our community organizations and volunteers work together in a coordinated and cohesive manner. This cohesion allows us to adapt and capitalize on new and emerging opportunities, while maintaining our strong community base. We value our people and
invest in creating opportunities for them to work, contribute and thrive in the region.
We have beautiful landscapes, parks, and natural vistas, which are now connected by a highly developed network of trails, by-ways and transport systems. We have a strong economic tourism infrastructure focused on leveraging our unique regional assets of
local food, outdoor recreation and cultural diversity and identity. Our thriving economy is built on our locally owned entrepreneurial businesses, and complemented by world-class
destinations. We are known worldwide for our authentic, family friendly and environmentally sustainable practices. We have become a renowned mecca for well
managed outdoor and eco-tourism and cultural experiences that make us the ‘must-do’destination for our many new and return visitors from across the world.
Key Action Areas
• Regional leadership structure• Internal outreach / local communication• Develop regional marketing strategy• Training to increase local knowledge