RADAR Hurricane Mitch2 Hurricane Mitch.pdf · 2007. 2. 28. · RADAR: Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine. AGROMET FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONSAGROMET UNIT

Applying RADAR to Hurricane Mitch in Honduras

Andrea Borgia

SDRN consultantRome, 2002

RADAR: Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine


Applying RADAR to Hurricane Mitch in Honduras

• Theory.• Agricultural environment.• Physical phenomena.• Parcels and data base.• Conceptual model.

• Impact evaluation.


Theory:flow-chart of assessment routine

• Definition of the event.• Definition of the area of impact.• Definition of the intensity.

• Definition of the value.• Definition of the percentage loss.• Calculation of the damage.


Theory: two equationsTheory: two equations

DE =A∫ Vca * Lca( )

Ca∫ dcda

σ y =i∑ rσ xi

σ x jσ xi

σ x j

df x( )dxi

df x( )dx j

j∑

12

Damage.

Error propagation.


Agricultural environment: infrastructure


Agricultural environment: population


Agricultural environment: potential land use


Physical phenomena:track of Hurricane Mitch


Physical phenomena: IR image of Hurricane Mitch


Physical phenomena: Mean annual rainfall


Physical phenomena: Mitch total rainfall


Physical phenomena: flooded areas


Rain + Flood + Land use + Departments = Parcels


Parcels


Data base:actual value for maize production

in each departmentDepartment Tot Prod

(000 MT)

±Error

(000 MT)

Area

Harvested

±Error

(ha)

Price

(Lempira/MT)

Lempira/US $Price

(US $/MT)

Potential

Value

±Error

(US $)

Percent of

Value at risk

Actual Value

(US $)

±Error

(US $)

Atlantida 23.828 0.718 13820.4 1870.3 3531 13.385 263.80 6,285,892 189,516 70 4,400,125 132,661

Colon 27.662 0.834 13504.0 1827.6 3531 13.385 263.80 7,297,312 219,906 70 5,108,118 153,934

Comayagua 25.524 0.767 17657.2 2389.8 3531 13.385 263.80 6,733,302 202,389 70 4,713,311 141,673

Copan 29.312 0.882 19213.4 2600.3 3531 13.385 263.80 7,732,587 232,569 70 5,412,811 162,798

Cortes 28.130 0.844 15385.2 2082.2 3531 13.385 263.80 7,420,772 222,650 70 5,194,540 155,855

Choluteca 18.692 0.562 20237.6 2738.9 3531 13.385 263.80 4,931,001 148,152 70 3,451,701 103,706

Paraiso 46.102 1.386 27912.4 3777.5 3531 13.385 263.8012,161,835 365,525 70 8,513,285 255,868

Francisco Morazan25.124 0.755 24637.4 3334.3 3531 13.385 263.80 6,627,781 199,224 70 4,639,446 139,457

Gracias a Dios 0.850 0.024 494.2 67.0 3531 13.385 263.80 224,232 6,331 70 156,963 4,432

Intibuca 19.906 0.597 16343.2 2211.8 3531 13.385 263.80 5,251,258 157,437 70 3,675,880 110,206

Islas de Bahia 0.034 0.005 24.2 3.4 3531 13.385 263.80 8,969 1,266 70 6,279 886

La Paz 9.982 0.302 10305.4 1394.7 3531 13.385 263.80 2,633,279 79,563 70 1,843,295 55,694

Lempira 23.830 0.716 22507.4 3045.9 3531 13.385 263.80 6,286,420 188,883 70 4,400,494 132,218

Ocotepeque 10.700 0.320 6037.4 817.1 3531 13.385 263.80 2,822,690 84,417 70 1,975,883 59,092

Olancho 80.820 2.428 39827.2 5390.2 3531 13.385 263.8021,320,539 640,513 70 14,924,378 448,359

Santa Barbara 38.458 1.154 25633.2 3469.0 3531 13.385 263.8010,145,327 304,534 70 7,101,729 213,174

Valle 8.268 0.250 9862.0 1334.8 3531 13.385 263.80 2,181,121 66,056 70 1,526,785 46,239

Yoro 56.860 1.708 28242.8 3822.2 3531 13.385 263.8014,999,825 450,575 70 10,499,878 315,403

Total 474.082 4.167 311644.6 11436.8 3531 13.385 263.80125,064,1421,099,311 70 87,544,899 769,518


Tools for generating the conceptual model

Parcel ?

Cultivo

Parcel ?

Pasto

Parcel ?

Bosque

Parcel ?

Agua

Region

Area

Data link

Assess Model Transf

1 Moderate rain

2 High rain

3 Torrential rain

4 Flood

Intensity


Conceptual model

Islas de Bahia

Atlantida Colon

El Paraiso

Olancho

Yoro

Gracias a Dios

F. Morazan

Choluteca

Cortes

Comayagua

La Paz

Valle

Santa Barbara

Intibuca

LempiraOcotepeque

Copan


Conceptual model and data base

Isla s d e Ba h ia

A tla n tida Colon

E l Pa r ai so

Olan c ho

Y or o

G r a cias a D io s

F. M or az an

C holu te ca

C or te s

C omayagua

L a Pa z

V all e

San ta Ba rba r a

Intib u ca

L e m pir aO cot e p e qu e

C opan

ColonColonColonColon PastoPastoPastoPasto FloodFloodFloodFlood

SystemSystemSystemSystem ComponentComponentComponentComponent Value (US$)Value (US$)Value (US$)Value (US$) ±Error±Error±Error±Error MagnitudeMagnitudeMagnitudeMagnitude IntensityIntensityIntensityIntensity Loss %Loss %Loss %Loss % ±Error %±Error %±Error %±Error % DamageDamageDamageDamage ±Error±Error±Error±Error

BasicBasicBasicBasic

Labor IV 10 10 0 0

Aldeas IV 100 10 0 0

Plots 11,755,697 695,442 IV 50 20 5,877,849 2,376,713

ActivitiesActivitiesActivitiesActivities

Livestoks: Cattle 86,137,550 5,624,344 IV 10 5 8,613,755 4,343,446

Dairy 79,176,940 7,401,524 IV 10 5 7,917,694 4,027,443

Activities supportingActivities supportingActivities supportingActivities supporting

Access IV 50 10 0 0

Buildings 12,224,572 3,540,928 IV 100 10 12,224,572 3,746,008

Machinery IV 100 10 0 0

Total damage (US$)Total damage (US$)Total damage (US$)Total damage (US$) 34,633,869 7,400,484

CopanCopanCopanCopan

Hurricane Mitch DisasterHurricane Mitch DisasterHurricane Mitch DisasterHurricane Mitch Disaster

Department ImpactDepartment ImpactDepartment ImpactDepartment Impact US $US $US $US $ ±Error±Error±Error±Error

9,550,4279,550,4279,550,4279,550,427 6,562,1226,562,1226,562,1226,562,122

Parcel typeParcel typeParcel typeParcel type ImpactImpactImpactImpact ±Error±Error±Error±Error

BosqueBosqueBosqueBosque 52,495 280,843

CultivoCultivoCultivoCultivo 1,052,394 217,603

FrutalFrutalFrutalFrutal 8,201,513 4,137,413

PastoPastoPastoPasto 244,025 5,081,046

Total impact (US$)Total impact (US$)Total impact (US$)Total impact (US$) 9,550,427 6,562,122


Value density


Percentage lossActivity TypeActivity TypeActivity TypeActivity Type Event typeEvent typeEvent typeEvent type

System Component Flood ±Error Torrential rain ±Error High rain ±Error Moderate rain ±Error

BosqueBosqueBosqueBosque ActivitiesActivitiesActivitiesActivities

Forestry 10 5 5 3 1 3 0 1


Access 80 10 50 10 10 5 2 2

Machinery 100 10 20 10 5 5 0 1

CultivoCultivoCultivoCultivo BasicBasicBasicBasic

Labor 10 10 5 1 1 1 0 1

Aldeas 100 10 30 10 5 1 1 1

Plots 50 20 10 5 5 1 1 1


Crops: Bananas 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Beans, dry 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Cassava 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Maize 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Melon 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Onions, dry 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Oil palm 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Plantains 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Potatoes 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Rice, Paddy 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Soybeans 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Sugar cane 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Tobacco leaves 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Life supportingLife supportingLife supportingLife supporting

Basic 100 10 30 10 10 5 0 1

Water 50 10 10 5 2 1 0 1

Fertilizers 30 10 10 5 2 1 0 1


Access 50 10 30 10 10 5 1 1

Buildings 100 10 30 10 2 1 0 1

Instruments 50 10 10 5 2 1 0 1

Machinery 100 10 20 10 0 1 0 1

FrutalFrutalFrutalFrutal BasicBasicBasicBasic

Labor 10 10 5 1 1 1 0 1

Aldeas 100 10 30 10 5 1 1 1

Plots 50 20 10 5 5 1 1 1


Crops: Cocoa, beans 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Coffee 100 10 80 20 60 20 40 20

Life supportingLife supportingLife supportingLife supporting

Fertilizers 30 10 10 10 2 1 0 0


Access 50 10 30 10 10 5 1 1

Buildings 100 10 30 10 2 1 0 1

Machinery 100 10 20 10 0 1 0 1

PastoPastoPastoPasto BasicBasicBasicBasic

Labor 10 10 5 1 1 1 0 1

Aldeas 100 10 30 10 5 1 1 1

Plots 50 20 10 5 5 1 1 1


Livestoks: Cattle 10 5 2 1 0 1 0 0

Dairy 10 5 2 1 0 1 0 0


Access 50 10 30 10 10 5 1 1

Buildings 30 10 10 10 2 1 0 1

Machinery 100 10 20 10 0 1 0 1


Percentage loss


Impact density


Hurricane Mitch DisasterHurricane Mitch DisasterHurricane Mitch DisasterHurricane Mitch Disaster

Country ImpactCountry ImpactCountry ImpactCountry Impact US $US $US $US $ ±Error±Error±Error±Error

750,704,518750,704,518750,704,518750,704,518 60,516,52560,516,52560,516,52560,516,525

Department impactDepartment impactDepartment impactDepartment impact

Parcel typeParcel typeParcel typeParcel type

BosqueBosqueBosqueBosque CultivoCultivoCultivoCultivo FrutalFrutalFrutalFrutal PastoPastoPastoPasto total impacttotal impacttotal impacttotal impact

US $US $US $US $ ±Error±Error±Error±Error US $US $US $US $ ±Error±Error±Error±Error US $US $US $US $ ±Error±Error±Error±Error US $US $US $US $ ±Error±Error±Error±Error US $US $US $US $ ±Error±Error±Error±Error

AtlantidaAtlantidaAtlantidaAtlantida 1,769,798 922,005 6,149,991 486,356 1,186,845 1,186,845 2,872,036 922,005 11,978,669 1,840,942

ColonColonColonColon 2,981,771 536,799 21,140,011 1,481,211 276,362 67,828 36,206,719 7,348,228 60,604,863 7,515,531

ComayaguaComayaguaComayaguaComayagua 534,932 1,605,045 7,391,038 1,237,245 23,371,018 7,946,298 1,358,276 1,934,215 32,655,264 8,425,662

CopanCopanCopanCopan 52,495 280,843 5,300,322 1,031,631 24,604,539 8,365,566 775,411 352,351 30,732,767 8,440,970

CortesCortesCortesCortes 712,936 790,280 55,620,003 3,310,556 10,259,434 2,625,719 372,302 531,501 66,964,675 4,331,422

CholutecaCholutecaCholutecaCholuteca 630,852 357,369 9,213,590 694,390 2,625,484 648,206 387,535 185,433 12,857,461 1,031,720

ParaisoParaisoParaisoParaiso 2,411,293 2,067,536 9,067,302 1,239,398 33,461,546 23,975,519 364,467 179,894 45,304,608 24,097,068

Francisco MorazanFrancisco MorazanFrancisco MorazanFrancisco Morazan 2,305,982 2,031,747 7,526,226 1,146,425 7,860,644 1,994,633 726,697 634,108 18,419,549 3,134,157

Gracias a DiosGracias a DiosGracias a DiosGracias a Dios 8,360,817 3,590,134 1,955,206 148,316 61,953 12,907 156,178,290 38,449,828 166,556,266 38,617,360

IntibucaIntibucaIntibucaIntibuca 266,344 799,171 4,181,968 838,526 7,940,412 1,124,739 2,634,262 3,750,008 15,022,986 4,082,817

Islas de BahiaIslas de BahiaIslas de BahiaIslas de Bahia 170,165 103,342 86,831 15,208 0 0 0 122,194 256,996 160,755

La PazLa PazLa PazLa Paz 423,473 548,701 1,628,305 387,595 19,370,309 19,370,309 4,210,364 2,507,377 25,632,451 19,543,468

LempiraLempiraLempiraLempira 488,663 1,466,217 4,020,613 945,457 13,016,028 4,426,137 1,948,435 2,774,029 19,473,739 5,507,232

OcotepequeOcotepequeOcotepequeOcotepeque 36,574 143,111 2,045,414 308,827 10,289,104 3,498,921 924,482 1,201,318 13,295,574 3,715,033

OlanchoOlanchoOlanchoOlancho 6,468,796 6,908,295 17,074,878 2,062,052 20,655,814 7,023,827 45,374,929 11,037,385 89,574,418 14,937,691

Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraSanta BarbaraSanta Barbara 631,501 1,894,792 10,200,522 1,536,589 37,215,753 12,653,733 438,534 625,665 48,486,310 12,901,929

ValleValleValleValle 173,714 105,473 1,330,633 308,931 24,402 6,101 5,853,889 1,898,331 7,382,638 1,926,204

YoroYoroYoroYoro 3,990,659 2,252,585 59,680,209 6,372,526 21,834,418 21,834,418 0 122,194 85,505,286 22,856,946

totaltotaltotaltotal 32,410,766 9,238,942 223,613,060 8,276,500 234,054,066 42,604,675 260,626,627 41,148,381 750,704,518 60,516,525

Negative impact = damage


RADAR: Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine

• By analysing:– Agricultural environment– Physical event

• Then: the area of impact is subdivided into parcels

• By giving:– Values to the components of the milieu– Percentage loss

• Then: the impact is obtained


Conclusions

The Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine:

� It is an efficient procedure for rapid impact assessment� It allows both, risk and impact evaluation� It is an essential tool for strategic planning during:� intervention� monitoring� recovery

Documents

RADAR Hurricane Mitch2 Hurricane Mitch.pdf · 2007. 2. 28. · RADAR: Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine. AGROMET FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS