Quote of the day Chance favors the prepared mind Louis Pasteur
1854 Scenario Development Methods 2013 University of Notre Dame.
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Slide 2
Anticipating Change To Make Better Decisions about the Future
2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Slide 3
Assessing Uncertainty Adapted From: Framework Forecasting,
Peter Bishop Limit of Plausibility Past Present Disruption ? ? ?
2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Slide 4
There are known knowns. There are things we know that we know.
There are known unknowns. That is to say there are things that we
now know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There
are things we do not know we don't know. Donald Rumsfeld at NATO
Headquarters, Brussels, Belgium June 6, 2002 Uncertainty &
Ambiguity 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Slide 5
Uncertainty and Ambiguity is when you are not sure what the
variables are Ambiguity Uncertainty is when youve defined the
variable but dont know its value Source: Fast Company, February
2012, p. 66 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights
reserved.
Slide 6
Four Levels of Uncertainty Source: Hugh Courtney, Strategy
Under Uncertainty, HBR, 1997 (ambiguity) 2013 University of Notre
Dame. All rights reserved.
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The Effects of Uncertainty Source: Hugh Courtney, Strategy
Under Uncertainty, HBR, 1997 2013 University of Notre Dame. All
rights reserved.
Slide 8
Scenario Development Double Uncertainty Matrix [Global Business
Network] Alt Futures [Institute For The Future] Aspirational
Futures [Institute for Alternative Futures] Deductive Method
Inductive Methods 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights
reserved.
Slide 9
Scenario Development Double Uncertainty Matrix [Global Business
Network] Alt Futures [Institute For The Future] Aspirational
Futures [Institute for Alternative Futures] Deductive Method
Inductive Methods 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights
reserved.
Slide 10
Creating a Scenario Matrix STEPS 1.Identify top 5 uncertainties
(from a broader list) 2.Prioritize top 2 uncertainties to create a
matrix 3.Define the conditions within each quadrant of the matrix
4.Brand each scenario to bring them to life 5.Identify Signposts
Best when two key uncertainties will drive future outcomes 2013
University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
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Scenario Matrices An Example 2013 University of Notre Dame. All
rights reserved.
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Global Trade Dynamics & Resource Demand Climate Change
Severity Governance of Marine Use in Arctic Ocean Global Oil Prices
Safety of Other Trade Routes (Suez and Panama Canals) Possibility
of a Major Arctic Shipping Disaster Scenario Matrices An Example
Identifying Uncertainties 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights
reserved.
Slide 13
Global Trade Dynamics & Resource Demand Climate Change
Severity Governance of Marine Use in Arctic Ocean Global Oil Prices
Safety of Other Trade Routes (Suez and Panama Canals) Possibility
of a Major Arctic Shipping Disaster Scenario Matrices An Example
Prioritizing Uncertainties 2013 University of Notre Dame. All
rights reserved.
Slide 14
14 Scenario Matrices An Example Source: The Future of Arctic
Marine Navigation in Mid-Century, Global Business Network, May 2008
(posted on Concourse) 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights
reserved.
Slide 15
15 Scenario Matrices An Example Source: The Future of Arctic
Marine Navigation in Mid-Century, Global Business Network, May 2008
(posted on Concourse) 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights
reserved.
Slide 16
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Scenario Development Double Uncertainty Matrix [Global Business
Network] Alt Futures [Institute For The Future] Aspirational
Futures [Institute for Alternative Futures] Deductive Method
Inductive Methods 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights
reserved.
Slide 18
Scenario Development Alt Futures Method GrowthConstraint
Collapse Trans- formation Best when major technological or societal
transitions are likely http://www.prezi.com/ 2013 University of
Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
Slide 19
Scenario Development Double Uncertainty Matrix [Global Business
Network] Alt Futures [Institute For The Future] Aspirational
Futures [Institute for Alternative Futures] Deductive Method
Inductive Methods 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights
reserved.
Slide 20
Scenario Development Aspirational Futures Method Best when
consensus on preferred futures exists (Business As Usual)
(Challenge/ Hard Times) (Visionary) 2013 University of Notre Dame.
All rights reserved.
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http://www.altfutures.org/pubs/vuln2030/Vulnerability_2030.pdf
2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
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Aspirational Futures Scenario Method Source: Vulnerability
2030, Institute for Alternative Futures 2013 University of Notre
Dame. All rights reserved.
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Aspirational Futures Scenario Method Source: Institute for
Alternative Futures Finalizing the Stories 2013 University of Notre
Dame. All rights reserved.
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Steps for Scenario Development 1.Indentify key forces of change
2.Explore disruptions in each force 3.Map these forces /
disruptions into 4 scenarios i.e. create comparative matrix
4.Develop Stories Brand identities Narratives / Highlights 5.Define
Signposts AlphaDelta 1BetaDelta 2 2013 University of Notre Dame.
All rights reserved.
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Creating A Comparative Matrix 2013 University of Notre Dame.
All rights reserved.
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Scenario Highlights Delta (Visionary) Scenario Highlights Delta
(Visionary) Scenario Highlights Beta (Challenge/Hard Times)
Finalizing the Stories Scenario Highlights Source: Institute for
Alternative Futures Scenario Highlights Alpha (Business as Usual)
2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
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What We Learned Today Double Uncertainty Matrix Method Best
when two uncertainties will drive future outcomes Alt Futures
Scenario Method Best when major technological or societal
transitions are likely Aspirational Futures Scenario Method Best
when consensus on preferred futures exists 2013 University of Notre
Dame. All rights reserved.
Slide 28
Team Exercise Get with your team and begin to assess the pros
and cons of each scenario development method for your foresight
project. Complete the Scenario Methods Evaluation Worksheet and
bring to the Scenario Development Workshop in the next class 2013
University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.
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30 Next Class Scanning Round 3 Due Friday by Noon Read:
Learnings From The Long View Monday - Scenario Development Workshop
Meet in Giovanini Commons Plan to work as a team to develop
scenarios for your foresight project Bring Laptops, Notebooks,
Project Materials 30 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights
reserved.