Quarterly LabourForce Survey (QLFS)

Q1:2021

Risenga Maluleke

Statistician-General

#StatsSA

Restrictions necessary to combat COVID-19 created an obstacle to normal data collection approaches and operations, exactly when there was a massive increase in the demand for information.

Stats SA changed the mode of collection for QLFS data to Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). To facilitate CATI, the sample that was used for QLFS Q1:2020 was also used in all quarters of 2020 and Q1:2021.

Not all dwelling units on the sample had contact numbers resulting in data being collected from part of the sample where contact numbers were available for QLFS Q4:2020.

This introduced bias in the estimates. Details on how the bias adjustment was done is contained in the report.

COVID-19 Impact on Data Collection

15,0 7,22,9

14,1

Other NEA

Dis

co

ura

ged

wo

rk s

ee

ke

rs

M

M

M

Employed Unemployed

M

Dis

co

ura

ged

wo

rk s

ee

ke

rsM

M

M

Employed Unemployed

MQ4:2020

Q1:2021

Not Economically Active (NEA)

15,0 7,2 3,1 14,1

Other NEA

M M M

Dis

co

ura

ged

wo

rk s

ee

ke

rs

Increase of 200 thousand discouraged work seekers

M

15,0 7,2 3,1 14,1

Other NEA

Not Economically Active

Dis

co

ura

ged

wo

rk s

ee

ke

rs

17,2 million

ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed

and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged

job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups.

Cannot be in two groups at the same time.

Labour force

22,2

million

39,5 millionPeople of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 - year olds)

M M M

Employed Unemployed

SA’s official

unemployment rate

stands at

32,6%

M

Increased by 0,1 of a percentage

point between Q4:2020 and Q1:2021

There were about 28 thousand less people employed in

Q1:2021 than Q4:2020

Due to rounding numbers may not add up

5

8,6%

40,6%

15,8%

8,7%

9,2%

17,2%

10,0%

38,8%

15,2%

8,7%

9,2%

18,2%

Other

Student

Home-maker

Illness/disability

Too old/young to work

Discouraged work seekers

Q4 Q1

Quarter-on-quarter changes

Thousand

Student -248

Homemaker -68

Illness/disability 18

Too young/too old to work 13

Discouraged work seekers 201

Other 248

Q4:2020 to Q1:2021

Change in levels

Characteristics of the not economically active, Q4:2020 vs Q1:2021

Other reasons: National lockdown / COVID-19(Up by 1,0% point)

(Remained unchanged)

(Remained unchanged)

(Down by 0,54% points)

(Down by 1,8% points)

(Up by 1,4% points)

The number of Not Economically Active persons increased by 164 000

in Q1:2021 compared to Q4:2020

41,7% 38,0%

55,5%56,4%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

The Labour force participation rate decreased by 0,2 of a percentage point

from 56,6% in Q4:2020 to 56,4% in Q1:2021

Labour force participation and absorption rates Q1:2011-Q1:2021

13,8% Points

difference

Absorption rate is the proportion of

the working-age population that is employed

18,4% Points difference

Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed

South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 0,1 of a percentage

point to 32,6% in Q1:2021 compared to Q4:2020.

Unemployment rate from Q1:2009 to Q1:2021

32,6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

The Expanded definition which includes discouraged work-seekers and those having

other reasons for not searching (e.g. Lockdown) showed 0,6 of a percentage point

increase to 43,2% in Q1:2021 compared to Q4:2020.

32,6%

43,2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Official

Expanded

Expanded Definition includes the following

- Official unemployment (searched and available) 7,2 M

- Available to work but are/or

• Discouraged work-seekers 3,1 M

• Have other reasons for not searching 1,0 M

Q1:2011 Q1:2021

11,4

million

7,2

million

10 year period

9

42,2%

27,9%

49,5%

46,4%

47,2%

43,2%

47,6%

41,6%

43,4%

49,6%

23,4%

23,7%

29,4%

30,5%

32,2%

32,6%

33,5%

34,4%

35,6%

43,8%

NC

WC

LP

KZN

NW

RSA

MP

GP

FS

EC

15,0 % points difference

20,1 % points difference

13,1% points difference

18,8 % points difference

Official Expanded

Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q1:2021

EC recorded the highest official and expanded unemployment rates. LP, NC

and KZN provinces have more than 15,0 percentage points difference between their

expanded and official unemployment rates.

15,8 % points difference

Private Household 1M

FORMAL SECTOR70,5%

16,7%

7,5%

5,3%

Q3:2010 Q3:2020

The formal sector in South Africa accounts for 70,5% of total

employment.

Employment share by sector, Q1:2011 to Q1:2021

Q1: 2011 Q1:2021

2,3M

1,2M Private Household 1,1M

Informal sector employment 2,5M

Formal sector employment 10,6M9,8M

Agriculture 0,8M0,6M

FORMAL SECTOR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Formal sector (non-agricultural)

Informal sector (non-agricultural)

Agriculture Private households

Mill

ion

s

Q4:2020

Q1:2021

Formal sector employment increased by 79 thousand jobs between

Q4:2020 and Q1:2021

Employment changes by sector, ( Quarter-on-quarter increase)p

p by

79 000

q by

-70 000

(10,6 million jobs) (2,5 million jobs) (792 thousand jobs) (1,1 million jobs)

q by

-18 000

q by

-19 000

Employment declined by 28 000 in Q1:2021 compared to Q4:2020.

Employment changes by industry

Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)

Largest decreases were

observed in

Construction, Trade and

Private households.

Percentage

change

9,3%

0,5%

16,0%

3,0%

0,5%

-2,2%

-4,3%

-5,8%

-2,7%

-7,5%-87

-84

-70

-40

-18

7

12

16

16

215

Construction

Trade

Private households

Transport

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Mining

Utilities

Community and social services

Finance

0,8%

2,6%

5,3%

6,0%

7,2%

7,5%

10,0%

16,9%

19,9%

23,8%

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture

Transport

Construction

Private households

Manufacturing

Finance

Trade

Community andsocial services

Share of

Nominal

GDP

(Q4:2020)

24,5%

16,2%

19,8%

13,7%

2,9%

9,2%

1,2%

9,4%

3,1%

Employment shares, Q1:2021

Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment

shares relative to their GDP contribution.

Employment and GDP share per industry

Graduate unemployment is 23,3% points lower than the national

official unemployment rate

Official Unemployment rate Q1:2021

38,3%

34,0%

21,2%

9,3%

Less than matric

Matric

Other tertiary

Graduates

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

SA O

ffic

ial U

nem

plo

ymen

t R

ate

32

.6%

63,3%

41,3%

27,0%

20,0%

13,1%

32,6%

15-24 yrs

25-34 yrs

35-44 yrs

45-54 yrs

55-64 yrs

15-64 yrs

20,6%

69,9%

77,8%

72,7%

42,2%

56,4%

7,6%

41,0%

56,7%

58,2%

36,7%

38,0%

+0,6

+0,7

-0,4

+0,1

+0,1

-0,7

-0,9

+0,7

-0,8

0,0

-0,5

-0,6

+0,7

-1,2

0,0

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate

Change: Percentage points

Q4:2020 to Q1:2021Labour market rates by age group, Q1:2021

Youth aged 15-24 years and 25-34 years recorded the highest

unemployment rates of 63,3% and 41,3% respectively

31,3%

31,9%

29,8%

32,4%

38,4%43,0%

41,8%

43,6%

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

50,0

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

15-24 Years 15-34 Years

NEET rate ages 15-24 & 15-34,

2012-2021

Approximately 3,3 million (32,4%) out of 10,2 million young people

aged 15-24 years were not in employment, education or training

(NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,7 percentage points in Q1:2021

compared to Q1:2020.

14,9%8,1% 25,2% 36,7%32,6%

White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African

SA

Unemployment Rate

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

The unemployment rate among the black African (36,7%) population

group remains higher than the national average and other population

groups. (From 36,5% in Q4:2020)

OFFICIAL unemployment rate by population group, Q1:2021

8,8%

11,8%

25,7%

36,5%

32,5%

8,1%

14,9%

25,2%

36,7%

32,6%

White

Indian/Asian

Coloured

BlackAfrican

Both sexes

Unemployment Rateby Population Group

Q1:2021 Q4:2020

9,4%

8,9%

25,4%

34,9%

31,0%

8,9%

12,4%

24,5%

35,4%

31,4%

Male Unemployment RateBy Population Group

Q1:2021 Q4:2020

Black women are the most vulnerable

with unemployment rate of over 30%.

OFFICIAL unemployment rate by population group and sex

Black African women are the most vulnerable with an

unemployment rate of 38,3% in Q1:2021.

8,1%

17,1%

26,0%

34,3%

7,1%

19,3%

26,0%

34,0%

Female Unemployment RateBy Population Group

Q1:2021 Q4:2020

38,3%

38,5%

11,3%

17,6%

33,5%

47,2%

42,6%

10,1%

19,9%

34,5%

47,9%

43,2%

White

Indian/Asian

Coloured

BlackAfrican

Both sexes

Expanded unemployment rate by population group

Q1:2021 Q4:2020

11,1%

11,7%

32,2%

43,9%

39,4%

10,2%

15,4%

32,6%

44,7%

40,1%

Male expanded unemployment rate by population group

Q1:2021 Q4:2020

Irrespective of gender, the black African and coloured population

groups remain vulnerable in the labour market.

EXPANDED unemployment rate by population group and sex

11,6%

27,7%

35,0%

51,0%

46,3%

10,0%

27,7%

36,7%

51,5%

46,8%

Female expanded unemployment Rate by Population Group

Q1:2021 Q4:2020

Additional analysis on employment in

relation to COVID-19

This section of the presentation focuses on indicators derived from the additional questions that were only asked of those who were employed.

18,7%

81,3% were expected to work

Of the 15,0 million persons who were employed in Q1:2021, at least

8 in every ten (81,3%) were expected to work during the national

lockdown by the companies/organisations they work for.

Work during lockdown

79,1%

84,9%

89,0%

91,1%

92,0%

92,2%

94,3%

95,6%

98,9%

99,3%

20,9%

15,1%

11,0%

8,9%

8,0%

7,8%

5,7%

4,4%

1,1%

0,7%

Professional

Manager

Technician

Elementary

Clerk

Craft and related trade

Sales and services

Skilled agriculture

Plant and machine operator

Domestic worker

Worked at place of workWorked from home

Professionals and Managers were more likely than all

other occupations to be working from home.

Place of work for persons who did any work by occupation, Q1: 2021

Received pay91,3%

Did not receive pay

8,2%

Don't know; 0,5%

91,3% of the employed continued

to receive pay during lockdown

compared to those in Q4:2020

(88,9%)

Q1:2021

Full salary86,0%

Reduced salary14,0%

14,0% of those who received

pay during lockdown were paid

reduced salaries.

81,2% 82,6%

87,8% 90,2%83,4%86,4%

89,1% 91,0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Less than Matric Matric Other Tertiary Graduates

Q4:2020

Q1:2021

Full salary by level of education, Q4: 2020 and Q1: 2020

About 9 in 10 graduates received their full salary in Q1:2021. The share

of those receiving full salary increased irrespective of level of education between Q4:2020

and Q1:2021. 16,6% of those with less than matric received reduced pay in Q1:2021

Recap QLFS Q1:2021

Unemployment rate

(32,6%) increased by 0,1

of a percentage point.

Absorption rate (38,0) and

labour force participation

rate (56,4) decreased by

0,2 of a percentage point

each.

Unemployment

rate

Construction (87 000),

trade (84 000) and

private households

(70 000) recorded the

largest employment

losses.

Employment

losses

Not economically

active

The number of not

economically active

increased by 164 000

in Q1:2021 compared

to Q4:2020.

Ndzi hela kwala!

QLFSQ1:2021