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Quarterly Economic Review December, 2009 Vol. 18, No.4

Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

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Page 1: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

QuarterlyEconomic

Review

December, 2009

Vol. 18, No.4

Page 2: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

The Quarterly Economic Review is a publication of The Central Bank of The Bahamas, prepared by The Research Department for issue in March, June, September and December. It replaces the former Quarterly Review which was last published for March 1992. All correspondence pertaining to the Economic Review should be addressed to:

The ManagerResearch Department

The Central Bank of The BahamasP. O. Box N-4868Nassau, Bahamas

www.centralbankbahamas.comemail address: [email protected]

Page 3: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC REVIEW

Volume 18, No. 4

December, 2009

C O N T E N T S

PAGE

1. REVIEW OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1

FISCAL OPERATIONS 1

REAL SECTOR 3

TOURISM 3

CONSTRUCTION 4

PRICES 4

MONEY, CREDIT & INTEREST RATES 5

CAPITAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENTS 9

INTERNATIONAL TRADE & PAYMENTS 10

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 11

2. STATISTICAL APPENDIX (TABLES 1-16) 13

Page 4: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

REVIEW OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

D O M E S T I C E C O N O M I C DE V E L O P M E N T S

Preliminary data suggests ongoing weakness in do-mestic economic activity during the fourth quarter of 2009, led by a contraction in tourism output, alongside sluggish private sector demand. Consumer price inflation remained relatively benign over the review period, despite a marked increase in international oil prices. The weak-ness in economic activity continued to impact negatively on Government’s revenues; although the boost to non-tax receipts, provided by a one-off asset sale, mitigated any further deterioration in the overall fiscal deficit.

Monetary developments supported a further build-up in bank liquidity, stemming from the receipt of proceeds from Government’s US $300 million bond issue and the slowed pace of private sector credit growth. Amid the relatively high unemployment rate and lacklustre busi-ness sector activity, banks’ asset quality indicators con-tinued to deteriorate, resulting in increased levels of provisions which negatively affected their profitability.

In the external sector, the expansion in the current account deficit was primarily associated with a decline in the services surplus and a rise in net income outflows, linked to higher dividend and interest payments. Similar-ly, the capital and financial account surplus narrowed, owing to a sharp reduction in net inward foreign direct investments, which overshadowed the external borrowing led expansion in other “miscellaneous” investment in-flows.

F I S C A L O P E R A T I O N S

OVERVIEW

Provisional estimates of Government’s operations for the second quarter of FY2009/10 revealed that the overall deficit virtually stabilized at $75.5 million when compared to the same quarter of FY2008/09. The outcome was led by a turnaround in revenue performance, to a 17.6% gain, following a 2.9% contraction a year-earlier; while aggregate expenditure—including net lending to public

corporations—advanced by 14.4%, exceeding the com-parative 4.7% growth.

REVENUE

Reflecting the reduction in domestic activity, tax re-ceipts, which constituted 70.5% of total collections, declined by 8.5% to $254.7 million. International trade & transaction taxes fell by 19.3% to $130.0 million, based on contractions in both import (16.2%) and excise (30.4%) taxes. Although hotel occupancy taxes recov-ered, selective services fees receded by 28.8% to $6.2 million, given the decrease in gaming receipts. Similarly, collections from business and professional licence fees fell by 21.7% to $8.1 million; other “unclassified” taxes, by 14.2% to $11.4 million and departure taxes, by 3.0% to $11.5 million.

Receipts from non-tax sources––at 29.5% of total revenue––expanded strongly by $77.9 million to $106.4 million. The outturn reflected a one-time inflow of proceeds relating to the sale of a significant business entity, which boosted income receipts to $85.4 million. In contrast, collections from fines, forfeits & administrative fees narrowed by $5.4 million to $20.9 million, and proceeds from the sale of Government property fell slightly to $0.05 million.

EXPENDITURE

Total expenditure advanced by 14.4% to $436.6 mil-lion during the quarter, based on a 3.3% increase in current spending to $345.4 million, and a 40.7% rise in capital outlays to $42.9 million. Budgetary assistance to public corporations elevated net lending by $31.5 million to $48.3 million. On a proportional basis, recurrent expenditure accounted for 79.1% of aggregate spending, capital outlays, 9.8%, and net lending to public corpora-tions, 11.1%.

By economic classification, growth in current ex-penditure included a 15.2% boost in purchases of goods & services, and a marginal hike in the dominant personal emolument (1.1%) component. Transfer payments edged up by 0.4% to $133.2 million, led by a 2.6% rise in interest payments on debt, as subsidies and other trans-fers declined by 0.6% to $91.4 million.

1

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Approximately 21.9% of recurrent spending was earmarked for general public services, which expanded by 4.9% to $93.1 million. In addition, outlays for educa-tion, health and other community & social services rose by 3.7%, 6.3% and 62.3%, respectively. Conversely, reduced spending was registered for defense (3.6%); social benefits & services, (5.0%); housing (23.6%) and economic services (3.4%).

Capital outlays increased by 40.7% to $42.9 million, largely explained by a near doubling in capital formation to $39.9 million. Specifically, spending for public works & water supply projects rose more than two-fold to $32.7 million, offsetting a near 50% reduction in educational outlays to $4.9 million.

B$M % B$M %

Property Tax 28.7 9.3 36.4 10.1

Selective Services Tax 8.7 2.8 6.2 1.7

Busines. & Prof Lic. Fees 10.3 3.4 8.1 2.2

Motor Vehicle Tax 4.2 1.4 4.5 1.2

Departure Tax 11.9 3.9 11.5 3.2

Import Duties 100.2 32.6 83.9 23.2

Stamp Tax from Imports 3.6 1.2 3.6 1.0

Excise Tax 55.4 18.0 38.5 10.7

Export Tax 1.9 0.6 3.9 1.1

Stamp Tax from Exports -- -- -- --

Other Stamp Tax 40.7 13.3 47.0 13.0

Other Tax Revenue 13.3 4.3 11.4 3.2

Fines, Forfeits, etc. 26.4 8.6 20.9 5.8

Sales of Govt. Property 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0

Income 1.9 0.6 85.4 23.6

Other Non-Tax Rev. -- -- -- --

Capital Revenue 0.1 -- 0.1 --

Grants -- -- -- --

Less:Refunds 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1

Total 306.9 100.0 361.1 100.0

FY08/09 FY09/10

Government Revenue By Source

(Oct - Dec)

FINANCING AND THE NATIONAL DEBT

Budgetary financing for the quarter was provided solely by external sources, and included a US$300.0 million bond issue and a $4.4 million drawdown on external loans.

-150.0

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0

500.0

550.0

II-08/09 III-08/09 IV 08/09 I-09/10 II-09/10

(B$M)Fiscal Operations

Rev. Exp. Sur./(Def.)

Of the $223.6 million in debt repayment, $195.9 mil-lion went towards reducing internal obligations—including the utilisation of bond proceeds to repay a net of $160.9 million in short-term foreign currency advances from the domestic banking system.

The Direct Charge on Government expanded over the three-month period, by 2.5% ($80.7 million) to $3,320.3 million at end-December, approximately 20.0% higher than the year earlier level. Bahamian dollar de-nominated debt represented 78.8% of the total, and was held by commercial banks (33.9%), private & institutional investors (30.6%), public corporations (27.6%), the Central Bank (7.7%) and other local financial institutions (0.2%). At end-December, Government securities ac-counted for the largest share of local currency debt, at 86.8%, with an average maturity of 13.1 years; followed by Treasury bills (9.3%) and bank loans & advances (3.9%).

2

Page 6: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

The Government’s contingent liabilities also in-creased during the quarter, by 32.5% to $581.0 million, explained mainly by the refinancing activities of the Bahamas Electricity Corporation. As a result of these developments, the National Debt grew by $223.3 million (6.1%) to $3,901.3 million over the review quarter and by $687.7 million (21.4%) vis-à-vis the previous year.

PUBLIC SECTOR FOREIGN CURRENCY DEBT

During the fourth quarter, public sector foreign cur-rency debt rose by $132.7 million (13.3%) to $1,132.4 million, as new drawings of $539.7 million—the bulk of which was due to refinancing activities—surpassed amortization payments of $404.8 million. The Govern-ment’s outstanding liabilities increased by 19.6% to $704.9 million, to account for 62.2% of the total; whereas the public corporations’ debt stock grew by 4.1% to $427.5 million.

In comparison to the same period last year, total debt service payments firmed by $391.3 million to $419.5 million, as amortization payments––inclusive of $396.0 million in refinancing––increased by $393.5 million to $404.7 million. Conversely, interest payments fell by $9.3 million to $14.9 million. When the refinancing activities are abstracted from the analysis, the debt service stabi-lized at approximately $23.5 million, and as a percentage of exports of goods and services, the debt service rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%, while the ratio of Govern-ment debt service to revenue was relatively stable at 4.7%.

By creditor profile, the majority of foreign currency debt was held by private capital markets (53.0%), fol-lowed by commercial banks (31.0%), multilateral institu-tions (11.1%), other entities (3.0%) and bilateral institu-tions (1.9%). Approximately 98.6% of the debt was denominated in United States dollars, with an average maturity of 14.9 years.

R E A L S E C T O R

TOURISM

Weakness in the tourism industry persisted during the fourth quarter, reflected in declines in both averagevisitor spending and occupancy rates, which oversha-dowed the modest recovery in stopover arrivals and further improvements in the cruise sector.

Total visitor arrivals gained 6.4% to 1.2 million, ex-tending the 0.5% increase in the corresponding quarter of2008. Sea passengers––which comprised 76.8% of total visitors––advanced by 8.0% to 0.9 million, following an 8.7% growth last year. After declining by 18.6% in 2008, air traffic recovered by 1.2% to 0.3 million.

On a destination basis, arrivals to New Providence rebounded by 6.8%, in contrast to last year’s 3.4% con-traction, as both air and sea passengers firmed by 2.6% and 8.9%, respectively. Similarly, Grand Bahama expe-rienced a 17.0% gain in visitors, extending last year’s 11.4% upturn, benefitting from a robust 22.7% rise in sea passengers which negated the 2.9% falloff in air traffic. Growth in visitors to the Family Islands was halved to 1.9%, as a 2.5% gain in sea arrivals overshadowed a 3.6% reduction in air passengers.

Preliminary data for the hotel sector showed total revenues down by approximately 7.2% to $81.5 million, due to an estimated 4.9% decline in the average daily room rate, along with a 2.4% falloff in occupancy levels. In terms of the main markets, revenues for Nassau properties contracted by 2.7%, occasioned by a similar fall in the average daily rate, although the average occu-pancy rate was unchanged. Decreased average daily rates, alongside lower levels of occupancy also explained the respective 16.0% and 47.5% declines in revenues for Grand Bahama and the Family Islands.

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QIV-08 QI-09 QII-09 QIII-09 QIV-09

ThousandsVisitor Arrivals

Air Sea Total

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CONSTRUCTION

Partial indicators signaled contracted levels of con-struction output for the fourth quarter, amid weakened foreign investment activity and a ratcheting down of domestic private sector projects. Mortgage disburse-ments for new construction and building repairs—as reported by banks, insurance companies and the Baha-mas Mortgage Corporation—fell by 13.9% to $61.1 million, compared to the same period in 2008.

Mortgage commitments for new construction and re-pairs––a more forward looking indicator––contracted in number by 12.5% to 266 and in value, by 15.2% to $37.4 million. This outturn reflected reductions in residential approvals for both volume and value, by 12.3% and 15.3%, to 257 and $35.2 million, respectively. Similarly, the commercial component declined in number by 18.2% to 9, with a corresponding 13.4% drop in value to $2.1 million.

In terms of mortgage financing, the average cost for residential mortgages fell by 10 basis points to 8.4%. The commercial rate also softened by 20 basis points to 8.9%.

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40

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0

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QIV-08 QI-09 QII-09 QIII-09 QIV-09

Valu

e (B

$M)

Num

ber

Mortgage Commitments:New Construction and Repairs

Num Value

PRICES

Despite the uptick in global fuel prices, domestic in-flation for the fourth quarter remained subdued, although the rate of increase in average prices advanced to 0.4% from 0.2% a year earlier. Average price gains firmed for “other” goods & services and medical care & health, by 1.32 and 0.56 percentage points, to 1.33% and 1.04%, respectively. Similarly, average costs for housing—the largest component of the index—furniture and household operation, as well as transport and communication, which posted respective contractions of 0.7%, 0.15% and 1.1% a year earlier, reversed to increases of 0.22%, 0.07% and 1.23%. Clothing and footwear inflation stabilized at 0.35%; while food and beverage costs moderated by 0.5%, a reversal from a 2.18% increase in 2008. The decline in average prices for recreation and entertainment services slackened further by 0.48%, vis-à-vis 0.99% in 2008.

Items Weight Index % Index %

Food & Beverages 138.3 139.4 6.7 146.1 4.8

Clothing & Footwear 58.9 109.3 1.5 111.4 1.9

Housing 328.2 112.5 3.5 112.4 -0.1

Furn. & Household 88.7 138.4 6.8 142.8 3.2

Med. Care & Health 44.1 149.7 5.0 153.1 2.3

Trans. & Comm. 148.4 116.2 3.0 118.3 1.8

Rec., Enter. & Svcs. 48.7 130.3 2.5 131.3 0.7

Education 53.1 178.3 2.6 183.7 3.0

Other Goods & Svcs. 91.6 147.1 7.5 152.2 3.5

ALL ITEMS 1000 128.0 4.5 130.7 2.1

Average Retail Price Index(Annual % Changes)

2008 2009

December

Domestic fuel prices registered some firming during the review period. The average cost per gallon of gaso-line rose marginally by 0.5% to $4.14, in contrast to a decline of 25.2% to $4.18 per gallon in the comparable period of 2008; and the per gallon cost of diesel ad-vanced by 7.4% to $3.48, following last year’s 30.7%

4

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drop. The Bahamas Electricity Corporation’s fuel sur-charge for energy consumption also increased by 11.0% to 11.38¢ per kilowatt hour (kWh), erasing the 11.0% fall-off to 20.57¢ a year earlier.

MO N E Y, C R E D I T A N D I N T E R E S T RA T E S

OVERVIEW

Monetary developments during the fourth quarter fea-tured a modest increase in overall liquidity, supported by a slowdown in private sector credit growth alongside proceeds from the Government’s external bond issue. The resultant boost to external reserves secured a signif-icant decline in the banking system’s foreign liabilities. However, amid continued worsening in credit quality, which prompted increased provisions, banks profitability weakened.

LIQUIDITY

As banks shifted excess funds into Government se-curities, net free cash reserves contracted by $29.1 million (11.2%) to $229.5 million, compared with last year’s $57.3 million (25.8%) decline to $164.8 million. At end-December, banks’ free cash balances represented 4.0% of Bahamian dollar deposits, up from 2.9% a year earlier. Correspondingly, the broader surplus liquid assets advanced by $30.6 million (6.6%) to $494.1 million, exceeding the statutory minimum by an elevated 53.2% in comparison to 28.3% in 2008.

0 .0

1 0 0 .0

2 0 0 .0

3 0 0 .0

4 0 0 .0

5 0 0 .0

6 0 0 .0

Q IV -0 8 Q I-0 9 Q II-0 9 Q III-0 9 Q IV -0 9

( B $ M )L iq u id i ty

E x c e s s R e s. L i q . A s s e ts

DEPOSITS & MONEY

Overall money (M3) supply contracted marginally during the quarter, compared to a relatively flat position in the previous period. Narrow money (M1) grew by 0.4% ($5.7 million), in contrast to a 3.5% decline in 2008, as a 12.8% seasonal boost in currency in active circulation,eclipsed a 1.6% decrease in demand deposits.

Accretions to broad money (M2) slowed further to 0.2% ($8.7 million) from 0.3% ($14.4 million) a year ago. A falloff in private individual placements moderated the accumulation in fixed deposits, by 1.0 percentage point to 0.4% ($14.6 million); and saving deposits decreased by 1.2% ($11.6 million) vis-à-vis a 1.4% rise in 2008. The contraction in residents’ foreign currency deposits was slightly lower at 5.2%, as a 6.8% decline in private bal-ances outstripped the 26.5% advance in public corpora-tions’ accounts. As a consequence, overall money (M3) fell by 0.1% ($4.0 million) on a quarterly basis, for an end-December stock of $6,032.3 million, compared to $5,924.0 million at end 2008.

Bahamian dollar fixed deposits represented the larg-est component (58.4%) of the money stock, followed by demand (17.8%) and savings (16.5%). Smaller shares were accounted for by residents’ foreign currency depo-sits (3.8%) and currency in active circulation (3.5%).

DOMESTIC CREDIT

Following a $223.6 million (2.9%) build-up last year, domestic credit contracted by $134.7 million (1.6%). As the Government repaid foreign currency advances, the decline in banks’ foreign currency claims was extended to $148.2 million (17.2%) from $10.3 million (1.3%) in 2008. Anemic private sector demand limited accretions to the Bahamian dollar component, to $13.5 million (0.2%), from a public sector led $233.8 million (3.4%) expansion in 2008.

Mirroring movements in net claims on Government, the banking system’s net credit to the public sector decreased by $172.9 million (10.7%), in contrast to a $141.4 million (11.5%) expansion a year ago.

Amid depressed consumer demand and the adoption of more conservative lending practices by banks, private sector credit growth was more than halved to $38.2 million (0.6%) from $82.2 million (1.3%). The outcome was dominated by an almost 75% slowing in growth of

5

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the Bahamian dollar component to $23.9 million (0.4%), whereas foreign currency credit firmed by 3.4% relative to a downturn of 2.9% in 2008. The rise in personal loans—which accounted for the bulk (76.8%) of outstanding claims—slackened to $1.9 million (0.04%) from $108.3 million (2.2%), as accretions to consumer credit narrowed by $13.8 million (0.6%), and residential mortgage gains were lower at $31.1 million (1.2%). Conversely, personal overdraft balances increased by $7.8 million (8.0%), compared to a $1.5 million (1.4%) decline in 2008.

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QIV-08 QI-09 QII-09 QIII-09 QIV-09

(%)

Changes in Credit

Private Govt (net) Rest o f Pub.

A dis-aggregation of consumer loans revealed broad-based reductions for almost all categories. Notable decreases in lending were recorded for private cars ($8.5 million), miscellaneous ($8.3 million) and travel ($3.3 million) loans; and declines of under $3.0 million were posted for the remaining categories. Reflecting consum-ers’ difficulties in servicing existing obligations, debt consolidation loans advanced by $9.8 million; and credit card debt grew by $1.3 million.

The remaining private sector credit categories fea-tured expanded net lending for construction ($36.2 mil-lion), professional & other services ($20.2 million), tour-ism ($17.6 million), manufacturing ($5.4 million), enter-tainment & catering ($8.9 million), agriculture ($1.0 mil-lion) and transport ($2.3 million). Conversely, net repay-

ments were posted for distribution ($6.1 million), miscel-laneous ($43.0 million) and fisheries ($2.9 million).

B$M % B$M %

Agriculture 15.0 0.2 15.6 0.2

Fisheries 9.9 0.1 7.7 0.1

Mining & Quarry 1.5 0.0 0.8 0.0

Manufacturing 41.1 0.6 37.1 0.5

Distribution 178.6 2.6 147.9 2.1

Tourism 212.5 3.0 198.9 2.9

Enter. & Catering 36.4 0.5 44.1 0.6

Transport 28.2 0.4 28.0 0.4

Construction 446.0 6.4 450.6 6.5

Government 145.8 2.1 76.5 1.1

Public Corps. 343.5 4.9 305.9 4.4

Private Financial 20.2 0.3 21.5 0.3

Prof. & Other Ser. 168.0 2.4 160.4 2.3

Personal 4,989.1 71.3 5,044.8 72.6

Miscellaneous 361.5 5.2 411.3 5.9

TOTAL 6,997.3 100.0 6,951.1 100.0

Distribution of Bank Credit By Sector

End-December2008 2009

MORTGAGES

An analysis of mortgage lending, as reported by do-mestic banks, insurance companies and the Bahamas Mortgage Corporation, revealed that total disbursements for new construction and building repairs fell by 13.9% ($9.9 million) to $61.1 million, explained by retrenchments in both residential and commercial components of 10.4% and 37.7%, respectively. Total mortgages outstanding firmed by $37.9 million (1.2%) to $3,184.2 million, below the $44.0 million (1.5%) increase in the comparative period last year. Residential loans—which comprised 93.2% of the total—advanced by $37.7 million (1.3%) to $2,966.7 million, marginally lower than the 1.6% rise in 2008. Further, the commercial segment rose by a modest $0.2 million (0.1%) to $217.5 million, compared to a relatively stable outcome a year earlier.

At end-2009, commercial banks held the majority of outstanding mortgages (89.0%), followed by insurance

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companies (6.1%) and the Bahamas Mortgage Corpora-tion (4.9%).

THE CENTRAL BANK

Following an expansion of $13.5 million (7.3%) in 2008, the Central Bank’s net claim on Government con-tracted by $65.0 million (26.4%); however, net deposit liabilities to the rest of the public sector widened by $5.7 million (1.8%), due to a firming in a public corporation’s deposits. The former was primarily explained by a reduc-tion in the Bank’s holdings of Government paper which were taken up by commercial banks, with a correspond-ing reduction in their balances held at the Central Bank, by $28.5 million (5.5%).

Supported by proceeds from the Government’s US$300 million bond issue and a falloff in domestic demand, external reserves strengthened by $61.0 million (8.1%) to $815.9 million at end-December, a turnaround from an $87.3 million (13.4%) drawdown to $562.9 million in 2008. In particular, the Central Bank’s foreign currency transactions recorded a net purchase of $57.4 million vis-à-vis a net sale of $92.3 million in 2008. The net pur-chase from Government was boosted by $111.6 million to $132.0 million; while transactions with commercial banks were reversed to a net purchase of $8.0 million from a net sale of $10.7 million. In addition, the net sale to public corporations fell to $82.7 million from $102.0 million a year ago.

At end-December, the stock of external reserves was equivalent to approximately 20.8 weeks of non-oil mer-chandise imports, compared to 13.1 weeks for the pre-vious year. When adjusted for the statutory required 50% of the Bank’s Bahamian dollar liabilities, which has to be supported by the external balances, “useable” reserves stood higher at $450.3 million, almost double the end-2008 level.

DOMESTIC BANKS

Developments in the domestic banking sector fea-tured a decline in deposit liabilities to the private sector, of $13.8 million (0.3%), which contrasted with the $38.2 million (0.6%) advance in credit to the private sector. Influenced by the Government’s external foreign currency borrowings and a reduction in short-term advances, the net claim on Government contracted by $116.3 million

(12.1%), reversing the $115.5 million (18.9%) build-up in 2008.

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Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09

(B$M)External Reserves

Net liabilities to public corporations receded by $27.9 million (52.1%), as a 3.0% tapering in deposits offset the 2.0% increase in credit. Claims on the Central Bank weakened by $28.5 million (5.5%), explained by banks’ utilization of deposits to increase Treasury bill holdings. Banks’ accumulation of capital and surplus resources, associated with profits and retained earnings, grew by $54.7 million (2.8%); while their net foreign liabilities declined by $114.9 million (14.4%), amid significant Government debt repayments.

At end-December, the aggregate value of domestic banks’ deposit liabilities—inclusive of public and private sector balances—stood at $5,960.7 million, with the majority (96.0%) denominated in Bahamian dollars. Of the latter, the largest share was held by private individu-als (58.2%), followed by business firms (24.6%), the public sector (10.0%), other depositors (3.8%) and private financial institutions (3.4%). By contractual obligations, nearly two-thirds of the deposits was in the fixed seg-ment, (62.9%), followed by demand (19.7%) and savings (17.4%) balances.

Analysed by range of value and number of accounts, Bahamian dollar deposits with balances of up to $10,000 comprised only 6.5% of the total value, but 90.7% of the

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accounts. Deposits with balances between $10,000 and $50,000 represented 11.6% of aggregate value and 6.2% of total accounts. Meanwhile, individual balances exceed-ing $50,000 constituted 81.9% of total value and 3.1% of the accounts.

CREDIT QUALITY

During the review period, commercial banks contin-ued to experience a steady deterioration in credit quality, amid weak economic conditions and elevated unemploy-ment levels. Compared to the previous quarter, the value of private sector loans with payments 30 days past due rose by $100.9 million (10.2%) to $1,090.1 million, which represented 17.6% of total loans at end-December 2009.

In terms of the major components, the most signifi-cant increase occurred in residential mortgage delin-quencies, which firmed by $67.1 million (14.4%) to $531.5 million, with the corresponding ratio extended to 18.5% from 16.3% in the third quarter and 13.2% a year earlier. Similarly, consumer loan arrears advanced by $29.5 million (10.1%) to $323.0 million, and by 1.3 and 3.9 percentage points over the previous quarter and year to 14.7% of total loans. Commercial arrears expanded modestly by $4.3 million (1.9%) to $235.6 million, to represent a higher arrears rate of 22.8% compared to 15.5% at end-2008.

With regard to average age, the gains in arrears were broad-based, as delinquencies in the 31–90 days seg-ment firmed by $57.7 million (12.7%) to $513.7 million, for a modest 0.9 percentage point increase in the average ratio over the quarter, to 8.41% of total loans. Similarly, non performing loans—arrears in excess of 90 days and on which banks ceased accruing interest—advanced by $43.2 million (8.1%) to $576.4 million. At end-December, the ratio of non-accrual loans to total bank claims rose to 9.4% from 8.8% at end-September and 6.1% a year earlier.

In light of these trends, banks sustained their adop-tion of more conservative lending practices against loan losses, expanding provisions for bad debt by $2.8 million (1.4%) to $213.6 million, which resulted in a marginal uptick in the ratio of provisions, to total loans by 0.03 of a percentage point to 3.44% over the quarter. However, given that the pace of growth in non-performing loans outpaced the expansion in provisions the ratio of provi-

sions to non-performing loans narrowed by 2.47 percen-tage points to 37.05%.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

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0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

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QIV-08 QI-09 QII-09 QIII-09 QIV-09

Non

-Per

form

ing

Loan

s

(% of Total Loans)

Tota

l Arre

ars

Loan Arrears & Non-Performing Balances

Other Residential Consumer NPL

BANK PROFITABILITY

Data for the third quarter of 2009 showed that in comparison to the same period of 2008, net income contracted by $7.5 million (12.8%) to $51.5 million, re-flecting mainly a significant increase in provisions for bad debt. The estimated net interest margin rose modestly by 0.1% to $117.7 million, as the 10.3% reduction in interest expense outweighed the 3.8% falloff in interest income. Lower foreign exchange transaction volumes influenced a 13.9% contraction in commission and foreign exchangefee income and caused the gross earnings margin to narrow by 0.6% to $123.0 million.

Aggregate operating expenses declined by 1.6% to $64.3 million, on account of decreased outlays for “mis-cellaneous” operating and occupancy costs, which offset a modest gain in staff compensation. Banks recorded a loss of $7.2 million on non-core activities, a reversal from the previous period’s $0.6 million profit, owing to a signifi-cant firming in bad debt provisions, by 18.2% to $27.7 million; while earnings from ‘miscellaneous” activities fell by 13.2%.

8

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In line with these trends, profitability ratios relative to average domestic assets softened over the review period. The net interest margin ratio fell by 3 basis points to 5.17%, and for commission and foreign exchange in-come, by 4 basis points at 0.23%, with a resultant falloff in the gross earnings margin by 7 basis points to 5.40% of average assets. Some offset was provided by the narrowing in the operating costs ratio, by 7 basis points to 2.82%, which caused the net earnings ratio to stabilize at 2.58%. However, after netting out depreciation and bad debt expenses, the net income (return on assets) ratio weakened by 35 basis points to 2.26%.

INTEREST RATES

Commercial banks’ fourth quarter average interest rate spread on loans and deposits declined by 21 basis points to 6.78 percentage points over the previous quar-ter. This reflected a 24 basis point narrowing in the weighted average loan rate to 10.45%, which outstripped a 3 basis points reduction in the corresponding deposit rate to 3.67%.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

QIII-08 QIV-08 QI-09 QII-09 QIII-09

(% of Avg. Assets)

Domestic Banks' Profitability

Earnings Marg. Operating Costs ROA

For deposits, the average savings rate rose by 10 basis points to 2.19%; while the interest rate spread on

fixed maturities widened to 3.46%-4.27% vis-à-vis 3.54%- 4.21% in the previous quarter. In addition, the average rate offered on demand deposits fell by 24 basis points to 1.29%.

Broad-based declines were recorded for lending rates. Average interest rates on residential mortgages fell by 5 basis points to 8.21% and for consumer loans, by 7 basis points to 8.65%. Average rates on both consum-er loans and overdrafts also moderated, by 63 basis points each, to 12.46% and 10.80%, respectively.

Among other key rates, the average 90-day Treasury bill rate advanced by 0.7 of a percentage point to 2.56% during the review quarter; however, the Central Bank’s Discount Rate and Commercial Banks’ Prime were unchanged at 5.25% and 5.50%, respectively.

Qtr. IV Qtr. III Qtr. IV

2008 2009 2009Deposit Rates

Demand Deposits 1.53 1.56 1.29

Savings Deposits 2.06 2.09 2.19

Fixed Deposits 3.46

Up to 3 months 3.63 3.54 3.72

Up to 6 months 4.04 3.93 4.02

Up to 12 months 4.35 3.96 4.27

Over 12 months 4.11 4.21 3.67Weighted Avg Deposit Rate 3.86 3.70 3.70

Lending Rates

Residential mortgages 8.25 8.26 8.21

Commercial mortgages 8.64 8.72 8.65

Consumer loans 12.55 13.09 12.46

Other Local Loans 8.22 7.57 8.76

Overdrafts 11.10 11.43 10.80Weighted Avg Loan Rate 10.39 10.69 10.45

Banking Sector Interest RatesPeriod Average (%)

C A P I T A L M A R K E T S DE V E L O P M E N T S

Despite the generally depressed domestic economic conditions, the Bahamas International Securities Ex-change (BISX) All Share Price Index advanced modestly by 4.2% to 1,565.38 points, a turnaround from the 6.8%

9

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decline recorded in the same quarter a year earlier—although, for 2009, the index fell by 8.6%. The total volume of shares traded on the exchange almost doubled to 2.32 million, valued at $12.3 million, compared to 1.03 million, priced at $6.9 million in 2008. Market capitaliza-tion rose by 4.5% to $3.02 billion over the quarter, how-ever, it fell by 8.5% vis-à-vis the previous year.

I N T E R N A T I O N A L T R A D E A N D P A Y M E N T S

Preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter of 2009 showed a $58.0 million (23.9%) widening in the current account deficit, to $300.8 million over the same period a year ago. The outcome reflected a downturn in the services account surplus and a doubling in net income outflows. Similarly, the capital and financial account surplus narrowed by $79.1 million to $221.5 million, owing to a sharp reduction in foreign direct investment inflows, which outweighed the advance in other “miscel-laneous” investments.

The estimated goods account deficit contracted by $8.1 million (1.6%) to $489.8 million, as the $93.0 million (12.6%) decline in payments for imports outpaced the $84.9 million (35.7%) falloff in export receipts. The contraction in imports was mainly attributed to lower fuel purchases, which fell by $61.1 million (10.2%), as the significant reduction in import volumes outstripped the rise in average product costs. In this regard, the price per barrel of propane gas increased by 17.9% to $46.07; motor gas, by 33.9% to $64.19 and jet fuel, by 6.1% to $84.93. Non-oil imports fell by an estimated $9.3 million (2.4%) to $397.5 million.

The services account surplus narrowed by approx-imately $37.2 million (13.6%) to $236.5 million, as the falloff in the high value-added stopover segment of the tourism market reduced net travel receipts, by $39.8 million (9.8%) to $365.5 million. Offshore companies’ local expenses also contracted by almost 50% to $39.7 million. Net payments for Government services grew by $1.9 million (14.0%) to $15.2 million, whereas a decrease in payments for air and sea freight services brought the net outflow for transportation lower by $4.8 million (6.3%) at $71.6 million. In line with the slowdown in domestic activity, the net payment for other “miscellaneous” servic-

es decreased by $19.1 million (24.6%) to $58.5 million and construction-related service fees were reduced by $11.1 million (89.3%) to $1.3 million. More modest declines of $1.2 million and $0.3 million were recorded for net outflows for insurance services and royalty & license fees.

The deficit on the income account more than doubled to $61.8 million, as a three-fold hike in private enterprises’ interest and dividend payments resulted in net investment payments growing by $26.9 million to $43.4 million. In addition, the net outflow for official transactions firmed by $3.2 million (55.2%) to $9.1 million, inclusive of a $2.4 million (44.0%) falloff in the Central Bank’s foreign earn-ings, due to the low global interest rate environment.

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

QIV-08 QI-09 QII-09 QIII-09 QIV-09

(B$M)

Balance of Payments

Invisible Bal. Curr. Acct . Bal. Trade Bal.

Net current transfer inflows expanded by $3.7 million (35.4%) to $14.3 million, owing to a $3.2 million (26.0%) advance in net Government inflows to $15.5 million and a $0.5 million (26.5%) decline in net workers’ remittances to $1.5 million.

The estimated surplus on the capital and financial account was reduced by almost one-third to $221.5

10

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million, following on a $227.2 million contraction in direct investments to $72.6 million. This outturn reflected a slump in inflows from equity and land purchases, by $170.2 million and $57.0 million, to $49.9 million and $22.7 million, respectively. With a slight uptick in equity investments, the net portfolio outflow moved higher to $6.6 million, while debt purchases remained steady. Conversely, net inflows from other “miscellaneous” in-vestment activities advanced more than three-fold to $160.8 million, boosted by proceeds from Government’s $300 million external bond issue, and resulted in a similar gain in net public sector capital inflows. As Government utilized its external borrowings to repay outstanding advances, domestic banks recorded a net repayment of $114.9 million, vis-à-vis a net inflow of $24.2 million in the previous year. Other private—mainly loan financing—investments were reversed, to a net repayment of $7.5 million from a net borrowing of $6.9 million in 2008; while the contraction in the capital account deficit, to $5.3 million from $35.5 million, reflected solely a falloff in migrants’ transfers.

As a result of these developments, and after adjust-ing for net errors and omissions, the overall balance—which corresponds to the change in the Central Bank’s external reserves—registered a surplus of $61.0 million vis-à-vis last year’s deficit of $87.3 million.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

The global recovery gained momentum during the fourth quarter of 2009, bolstered by governments’ fiscal stimulus measures and central banks’ expansionary monetary policies. However, consumer spending re-mained anemic, and unemployment rates stayed at historic highs. Global inflation firmed modestly, as inter-national oil and commodity prices trended upwards. In the currency markets, the US dollar appreciated against most major currencies, buoyed by signs of a sustained recovery in that economy; and major equity indices registered further gains, as the improving economic outlook provided a boost to investors’ confidence.

The recovery in the US economy deepened, with real GDP growth expanding to 5.9% from 2.2% in the pre-vious quarter, owing primarily to an upturn in private

inventory investment, exports and private consumption. However, economic activity in the United Kingdom re-mained tepid, as real output rose marginally by 0.1%, following a 0.2% contraction in the third quarter, reflecting growth in the services and industrial sectors. Conditions were also lackluster in the euro area, where lower output of intermediate and capital goods restrained the im-provement of real GDP to 0.1% from 0.4% in the previous three months. Supported by Government’s economic stimulus measures and an accommodative credit envi-ronment, China’s quarterly real output expanded robustly, to 10.7% from 9.1% in the third quarter. The Japanese economy continued to recover, as GDP increased by 1.1%, owing to a firming in business investments, exports and domestic demand.

Indications are that labor market conditions stabilized during the review quarter. In the United States, the unemployment rate grew marginally by 0.4 of a percen-tage point to 10.0%, owing to a falloff in construction, manufacturing and wholesale trade jobs. The jobless rate in the United Kingdom was unchanged at 7.8% from the previous quarter, while the euro area’s jobless rate rose by a mere 0.2 of a percentage point to 9.9%. Ja-pan’s unemployment rate narrowed by 0.4 of a percen-tage point to 5.0%; however, China’s jobless rate held steady at 4.3%.

The quarterly firming in consumer price inflation was broadly based across all of the major economies, given the upward movement in international energy prices. In the United States, the inflation rate for the twelve months to December strengthened to 2.7% from 0.1% in 2008. Annual inflation in the United Kingdom advanced by 1.8 percentage points to 2.9%, primarily linked to an upward adjustment in value-added tax rates to “pre-crisis” levels. For the euro area, higher prices for alcohol & tobacco, transport and miscellaneous good & services, pushed the rise in annual inflation to 0.9%, following a decline of 0.3% in the same period last year. In China, higher food and housing costs elevated consumer prices by 1.9%, while deflationary pressures in Japan moderated the contraction in consumer prices by 0.5 of a percentage point to 1.7%.

Supported by an improving outlook for the US econ-omy, the dollar strengthened against most of the major currencies. The dollar appreciated against the Yen and

11

Page 15: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

euro, by 3.7% and 2.2%, respectively, and moved margi-nally higher relative to the Swiss Franc by 0.06%. It depreciated against the British pound by 1.2%, but was relatively stable against the Chinese currency.

As the upturn in the global economy gathered pace, the improvement in investor sentiment translated into increased valuations in the major equity markets. In the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index recorded increases of 7.4% to 10,428 and 5.9% to 1,110.7 points, respective-ly. Similarly, in Europe, the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 rose by 5.4% to 5,879.80 points; Germany’s DAX, by 5.0% to 6,851.75 points and France’s CAC 40 index, by 3.7% to 4,869.79 points. China’s market remained volatile, with the major Shanghai SE Composite index appreciating by 17.9% to 4,383.39 points, and a more modest gain of 4.1% to 13,592.47 was posted for Japan’s Nikkei 225 index.

The combination of positive economic developments and severe cold weather in the Northern hemisphere largely explained the 19.3% surge in crude oil prices to $77.85 per barrel in the final quarter of 2009. In terms of other commodities, gold prices increased by 8.9% to $1,096.95 per ounce at end-December, as investors—including central banks—continued to boost holdings of relatively ‘safe’ assets. Silver rose by 1.4% to $16.88 per ounce.

Most of the major central banks maintained their ac-commodative monetary policy stance in the final quarter of 2009, in an effort to support the economic recovery, although several signaled their intention to unwind these policies in the near future. The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate in the range of 0.0% to 0.25%, and announced its decision to allow the liquidity facilities to expire February 1, 2010. In contrast, the Bank of Eng-land extended the asset purchase program by an addi-tional £25.0 billion to £200 billion. Based on the anemic level of economic activity, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key policy rates unchanged, as was also the case in both Japan and China.

In the external sector, trade balances of the major economies reflected the steady pace of global recovery. Consistent with the modest upturn in spending and corresponding increases in imports, the United States’ current account deficit expanded by 13.0% to $115.0

billion. The seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit for the United Kingdom rose to £9.5 billion from £8.1 billion in the third quarter, led by an expansion in the goods deficit. However, the euro zone’s external trade surplus advanced by €5.2 billion to €18.0 billion, as the contraction in imports outweighed the falloff in ex-ports. China’s buoyant recovery in exports resulted in the trade surplus widening further, by 56.4% to 61 trillion Yuan, when compared with the previous three-month period. Supported by a robust recovery in exports, Japan’s surplus on the goods and services balance firmed by 70.0%, on a quarterly basis, to ¥1,556.8 trillion.

12

Page 16: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

(Tables 1-16)

13

Page 17: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 1 Financial Survey

Table 2 Monetary Survey

Table 3 Central Bank Balance Sheet

Table 4 Domestic Banks Balance Sheet

Table 5 Profit and Loss Accounts Of Banks In The Bahamas

Table 6 Money Supply

Table 7 Consumer Installment Credit

Table 8 Selected Average Interest Rates

Table 9 Selected Credit Quality Indicators of Domestic Banks

Table 10 Summary of Bank Liquidity

Table 11 Government Operations and Financing

Table 12 National Debt

Table 13 Public Sector Foreign Currency Debt Operations

Table 14 Balance of Payments Summary

Table 15 External Trade

Table 16 Selected Tourism Statistics

The following symbols and conventions are used throughout this report:

1. n.a. not available

2. -- nil

3. p provisional

4. Due to rounding, the sum of separate items may differ from the total

14

Page 18: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

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15

Page 19: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

En

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16

Page 20: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

(B$

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lio

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17

Page 21: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

(B$

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lio

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18

Page 22: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

(B$

'00

0s)

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19

Page 23: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

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Page 24: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

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vat

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5

So

urce:

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e C

en

tra

l B

an

k o

f T

he B

ah

am

as

* In

clu

des

both

dem

and

an

d a

dd

-on

loan

s

20

09

20

08

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.

TA

BL

E

7

CO

NS

UM

ER

IN

ST

AL

ME

NT

CR

ED

IT*

21

Page 25: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

(%)

Per

iod

20

07

20

08

20

09

Qtr

. I

Qtr

. II

Qtr

. II

IQ

tr.

IVQ

tr.

IQ

tr.

IIQ

tr.

III

Qtr

. IV

Qtr

. I

Qtr

. II

Qtr

. II

IQ

tr.

IV

DO

ME

ST

IC B

AN

KS

D

epo

sit

rate

s

Sav

ings

dep

osi

ts2

.05

2.2

02

.15

2.0

11

.96

2.0

02

.24

2.3

02

.25

2.1

72

.06

2.1

92

.11

2.0

92

.19

Fix

ed d

epo

sits

U

p t

o 3

mo

nth

s3

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3.7

03

.55

3.4

43

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3.5

23

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3.7

43

.71

3.7

13

.63

3.6

43

.57

3.5

43

.46

U

p t

o 6

mo

nth

s3

.89

4.0

83

.94

3.8

83

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3.8

53

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4.1

84

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4.0

04

.04

4.2

33

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3.9

33

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U

p t

o 1

2 m

on

ths

4.2

84

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4.2

64

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4.1

94

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4.4

74

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4.5

74

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4.3

54

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4.3

83

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4.0

2

O

ver

12

mo

nth

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4.4

44

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4.8

44

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4.4

84

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5.0

54

.28

4.3

14

.11

4.6

64

.33

4.2

14

.27

W

eig

hte

d a

ver

age

rate

3.6

93

.92

3.7

93

.66

3.6

33

.68

3.8

04

.02

3.9

13

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3.8

64

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3.7

93

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3.6

7

Len

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g r

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s

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iden

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mo

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8.1

68

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8.2

57

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8.1

38

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8.2

98

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8.5

88

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8.2

58

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8.2

38

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8.2

1

Co

mm

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al m

ort

gag

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8.7

28

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8.5

68

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8.9

39

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8.6

29

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8.3

78

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8.5

88

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8.7

28

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13

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12

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12

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13

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13

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12

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12

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12

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13

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12

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Ov

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1.4

41

1.4

51

1.6

71

1.4

71

2.3

91

1.0

41

0.8

71

1.3

41

1.7

91

1.5

71

1.1

01

2.8

41

1.6

01

1.4

31

0.8

0

W

eig

hte

d a

ver

age

rate

10

.63

10

.95

10

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10

.35

10

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10

.63

10

.72

11

.00

11

.42

11

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10

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10

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10

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10

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10

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ate

s

P

rim

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te5

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5.5

05

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5.5

05

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5.5

05

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5.5

05

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5.5

05

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5.5

05

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5.5

05

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T

reas

ury

bil

l (9

0 d

ays)

2

.66

2.7

32

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2.5

52

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2.6

32

.83

2.6

92

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2.6

92

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2.6

42

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2.4

92

.56

T

reas

ury

bil

l re

-dis

cou

nt

rate

3.1

63

.23

3.1

23

.05

3.1

43

.13

3.3

33

.19

3.3

33

.19

3.2

33

.14

3.2

72

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3.0

6

B

ank

rat

e (d

isco

un

t ra

te)

5.2

55

.25

5.2

55

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5.2

55

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5.2

55

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5.2

55

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5.2

55

.25

5.2

55

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5.2

5

So

urc

e: T

he

Cen

tra

l B

an

k o

f T

he

Ba

ha

ma

s

20

07

20

08

20

09

TA

BL

E 8

SE

LE

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ED

AV

ER

AG

E I

NT

ER

ES

T R

AT

ES

22

Page 26: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

Perio

d2

00

52

00

62

00

7

Qtr

. I

Qtr

. II

Qtr

. II

IQ

tr.

IVQ

tr.

IQ

tr.

IIQ

tr.

III

Qtr

. IV

Loan

Portf

oli

o

Cu

rren

t L

oan

s (a

s a

% o

f to

tal

loan

s)9

2.0

92

.59

0.6

90

.98

9.9

89

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7.5

86

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6.2

83

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2.3

Arr

ears

(%

by l

oan

typ

e)

Co

nsu

mer

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.9

4.2

4.5

4.8

5.2

Mo

rtgag

e3

.63

.14

.64

.44

.54

.75

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.07

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.6

Co

mm

erci

al1

.61

.61

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.52

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.8

Pu

bli

c0

.00

.00

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.10

.10

.10

.10

.10

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To

tal

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ears

8.0

7.5

9.4

9.1

10

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13

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l B

$ L

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00

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00

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3.4

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5.6

61

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1.7

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1.9

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90

- 1

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18

0 d

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3.3

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3.8

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5.0

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8.0

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10

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12

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29

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40

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5.6

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4.4

43

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3.0

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1.4

Oth

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3.1

24

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3.2

19

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1.5

22

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3.9

25

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26

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n A

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tal

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vis

ion

s to

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tal

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2.0

2.3

2.1

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tal

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vis

ion

s to

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n-p

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rmin

g L

oan

s4

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47

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46

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42

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39

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4.5

4.2

4.5

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8.8

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So

urce:

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e C

en

tra

l B

an

k o

f T

he B

ah

am

as

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ure

s m

ay n

ot

sum

to t

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to r

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LE

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KS

20

09

23

Page 27: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

(B$

Mil

lio

ns)

En

d o

f P

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00

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tory

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erves

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uir

ed r

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ves

22

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24

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26

5.0

26

9.3

27

7.4

28

1.9

28

3.3

28

5.2

28

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29

3.7

29

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l C

ash

86

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92

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77

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95

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ance

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h c

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33

2.2

26

5.7

36

3.1

41

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45

3.0

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(p

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19

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25

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2.1

16

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22

9.5

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Ass

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(per

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)

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2.2

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2.5

86

0.0

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3.7

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91

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93

0.3

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.

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95

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01

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21

3.6

12

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16

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13

34

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44

6.8

13

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.61

42

3.7

i)

Bal

ance

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h C

entr

al B

ank

28

4.7

25

1.1

34

1.2

42

0.8

44

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32

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54

9.6

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5.6

ii)

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ins

10

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ills

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4.0

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00

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m c

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24

Page 28: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

(B$

Mil

lio

ns)

Per

iod

2006/0

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2007/0

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2008/0

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310.9

392.1

267.7

361.1

Curr

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1285.7

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44.0

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22.7

1484.2

1430.5

331.5

334.5

358.5

398.2

319.8

345.4

Cap

ital

expen

dit

ure

166.2

176.7

139.8

188.7

208.9

28.5

30.5

28.9

51.9

37.5

42.9

Net

len

din

g69.1

54.1

123.1

62.2

49.3

14.8

16.7

11.7

79.9

11.3

48.3

Over

all

bala

nce

(182.8

)(1

50.8

)(3

61.3

)(1

65.7

)(2

88.6

)(6

0.4

)(7

4.8

)(8

8.2

)(1

37.9

)(1

00.8

)(7

5.5

)

FIN

AN

CIN

G (

I+II

-III

+IV

+V

)182.8

150.8

361.3

165.7

288.6

60.4

74.8

88.2

137.9

100.8

75.5

I. F

ore

ign

cu

rren

cy b

orr

ow

ing

18.1

127.8

267.7

27.9

63.8

3.6

12.6

60.7

190.9

5.8

304.4

Exte

rnal

14.7

106.7

56.6

27.9

63.8

3.6

11.5

10.7

30.9

5.8

304.4

Dom

esti

c3.4

22.3

211.1

--

--

--

1.1

50.0

160.0

--

--

II.

Bah

am

ian

doll

ar

borr

ow

ing

230.3

194.5

246.1

207.2

309.7

100.0

--

121.1

25.0

165.0

--

i)T

reasu

ry b

ills

10.0

28.0

13.8

--

--

--

--

13.8

--

--

--

Bu

dget

G

OV

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NM

EN

T O

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TIO

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AN

D F

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TA

BL

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1

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--

13.8

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--

--

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tral

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k10.0

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13.8

--

--

--

--

13.8

--

--

--

Com

mer

cial

ban

ks

& O

LF

I's

--

--

0.0

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Publi

c co

rpora

tions

--

--

0.0

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

Oth

er--

--

0.0

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

--

ii)

Lon

g-t

erm

sec

uri

ties

195.3

166.5

207.2

--

--

100.0

--

107.2

0.0

150.0

--

Cen

tral

Ban

k70.3

41.5

0.0

--

--

--

--

--

--

15.1

--

Com

mer

cial

ban

ks

& O

LF

I's

34.9

25.2

114.7

--

--

47.0

--

67.7

--

84.0

--

Publi

c co

rpora

tions

49.1

55.8

21.7

--

--

13.7

--

8.0

--

30.0

--

Oth

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44.0

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--

39.3

--

31.6

--

20.9

--

iii)

Loan

s an

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25.0

--

25.0

--

--

--

--

--

25.0

15.0

--

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tral

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--

25.0

--

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--

--

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25.0

--

--

Com

mer

cial

ban

ks

--

--

0.0

--

--

--

--

--

--

15.0

--

III.

Deb

t re

pay

men

t123.0

83.7

108.2

60.1

80.8

15.9

12.9

1.0

78.5

16.0

223.6

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esti

c93.3

78.4

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55.0

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15.0

10.9

0.0

75.9

15.0

195.9

Bah

amia

n d

oll

ars

91.5

56.6

50.0

55.0

75.0

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10.0

--

25.0

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35.0

Inte

rnal

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ign c

urr

ency

1.8

21.8

51.8

--

--

--

0.9

--

50.9

--

160.9

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rnal

29.7

5.3

6.4

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0.9

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27.7

IV.C

ash

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2.5

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0.2

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--

(2

6.5

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)

V.

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.7)

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.1)

Sou

rce:

Tre

asu

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thly

Pri

nto

uts

. D

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ccord

ing t

o t

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Inte

rnati

on

al

Mon

etary

Fu

nd

's G

over

nm

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Fin

an

ce S

tati

stic

s fo

rmat.

25

Page 29: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

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26

Page 30: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

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ilat

eral

In

stit

uti

on

s1

07

.51

12

.31

26

.31

12

.31

21

.01

22

.81

26

.81

26

.3

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ilat

eral

In

stit

uti

on

s7

.21

9.0

21

.41

9.0

11

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1.0

15

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ther

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7.4

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7.4

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6.4

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3.6

P

riv

ate

Cap

ital

Mar

ket

s2

00

.03

00

.06

00

.03

00

.03

00

.03

00

.03

00

.06

00

.0

So

urc

e: T

rea

sury

Acc

ou

nts

, T

rea

sury

Sta

tist

ica

l P

rin

tou

ts a

nd

Qu

art

erly

Rep

ort

s fr

om

Pu

bli

c C

orp

ora

tio

ns,

Cen

tra

l B

an

k o

f T

he

Ba

ha

ma

s.

Note

: *D

ebt

serv

icin

g d

uri

ng t

he

1st

& 2

nd q

uar

ters

of

2009 i

ncl

udes

the

refi

nan

cing o

f $

86 m

illi

on a

nd

$50 m

illi

on i

n P

ubli

c C

orp

ora

tions'

and G

over

nm

ent's

deb

t.

Net

of

thes

e

1 S

ee n

ote

s t

o t

able

Note

: *D

ebt

serv

icin

g d

uri

ng t

he

1st

& 2

nd q

uar

ters

of

2009 i

ncl

udes

the

refi

nan

cing o

f $

86 m

illi

on a

nd

$50 m

illi

on i

n P

ubli

c C

orp

ora

tions'

and G

over

nm

ent's

deb

t.

Net

of

thes

e

tran

sact

ions,

the

res

pec

tive

adju

sted

deb

t se

rvic

e ra

tios

wer

e 2.2

% &

3.7

% a

nd t

he

Gover

nm

ent's

2nd q

uar

ter

serv

ice/

reven

ue

rati

o w

as 4

.0%

.

**D

ebt

serv

icin

g d

uri

ng t

he

4th

quar

ter

of

2009 i

ncl

udes

the

refi

nan

cing o

f $

211 m

illi

on a

nd

$185 m

illi

on i

n P

ubli

c C

orp

ora

tions'

and G

over

nm

ent's

deb

t.

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of

thes

e

tran

sact

ions,

the

Gover

nm

ent's

ser

vic

e/re

ven

ue

rati

o w

as 4

.7%

and t

he

deb

t se

rvic

e ra

tio w

as 3

.6%

.

27

Page 31: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

(B$ M

illi

ons)

2007p

2008p

2009p

Qtr

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p Q

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318.1

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67.9

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9.6

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9.8

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7.5

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97.4

520.2

528.4

394.8

405.3

485.4

482.3

364.2

365.5

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vic

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06.6

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2.6

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Off

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re C

om

pan

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cal

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233.8

179.6

63.5

44.2

54.8

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46.4

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48.0

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ver

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ent

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6.3

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7.0

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3.3

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er S

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55.2

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22.4

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13.1

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plo

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52.1

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6.5

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3.4

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IV

. C

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(N

et)

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56.0

82.3

14.7

17.5

13.3

10.6

19.9

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62.9

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229.8

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306.9

181.3

376.6

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653.6

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ng T

erm

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9.5

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28.3

1.9

276.6

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lic

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tor

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21.9

(4.3

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(4.9

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140.4

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all

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(A

+B

+C

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5.9

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85.6

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146.6

(15.5

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g (

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in S

DR

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0.1

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----

----

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ge

in R

eser

ve

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siti

on

wit

h t

he

IMF

(0.5

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(0.2

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0.1

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0.3

(0.4

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han

ge

in E

xt.

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reig

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crea

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So

urc

e: T

he

Cen

tral

Ban

k o

f th

e B

aham

as

* F

igu

res

may

no

t su

m t

o

tota

l d

ue

to r

ou

nd

ing

2008

2009

T

AB

LE

14

B

AL

AN

CE

OF

PA

YM

EN

TS

SU

MM

AR

Y*

28

Page 32: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

(B$ '0

00)

2007

2008

Qtr

. IV

Qtr

. I

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mm

ari

es

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29

Page 33: Quarterly Economic Review · quarterly economic review volume 18, no. 4 december, 2009 c o n t e n t s page 1. review of economic and financial developments domestic economic developments

TA

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