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1 Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO

Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

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Page 1: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

1

Q4 Report 2008Johan Molin, President & CEO

Page 2: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

2

Financial Highlights Q4 2008

Improved profit in a tough environment– Stable sales in local currencies

– Americas and Entrance systems holds up

– Construction in EMEA and Asia weakening

– Large efficiency gains supports profit

Sales 9,468 MSEK +9%

-4% organic, +4% acquired growth, +9% currency

EBIT* 1,469 MSEK +2%Currency effect +155 MSEK

EPS* 2,45 SEK +7%*Excluding restructuring and one off cost of 1,010 MSEK

Page 3: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

3

ASSA ABLOY in 2008

Weakening demand in all parts of the world

Growth in new product segments– Electromechanical products, access control and automatic

doors

Continued investment in R&D and market presence

Industry consolidation continued– ASSA ABLOY made 18 acquisitions

Page 4: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

4

Financial Highlights Jan-Dec 2008

Stable and consistent performance – Total growth 4% in local currencies

– Profit supported by improved gross margin & efficiency gains

Sales 34,918 MSEK +4%

+0% organic, +4% acquired growth, +0% currency

EBIT* 5,526 MSEK +1%

Currency effect +5 MSEK

EPS* 9.21 SEK +2%

* Excluding restructuring and one off cost of 1,257 MSEK

Page 5: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

5

Group Sales in Local Currencies 2008

2 +13

37 +446 +0

8 +34

5 +0

2 +22

Portion of Group sales 2008 YTD, %Year-to-date vs previous year, %

Page 6: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

6

-4,0

-3,0-2,0

-1,0

0,01,0

2,0

3,04,0

5,0

6,0

7,08,0

9,0

10,011,0

12,0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Gro

wth

%

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

26 000

28 000

30 000

32 000

34 000

36 000

Sa

les M

SE

K

Organic Growth Acquired Growth Sales in Fixed Currencies

Sales Growth 2008 - Currency Adjusted

2008 +4%Organic +0%Acquired +4%

Page 7: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

7

Operating Income* (EBIT) MSEK

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

1 300

1 400

1 500

2005 2006 2007 20083 100

3 300

3 500

3 700

3 900

4 100

4 300

4 500

4 700

4 900

5 100

5 300

5 500

5 700

Quarter Rolling 12-months

Quarter 12-months

*Rolling 12-months excludes restructuring and one off costs 2006 of 1,474 MSEK and 2008 of 1,257 MSEK

All time high Run rate 5,526 MSEK (5,458), +1%

Page 8: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

8

Operating Margin* (EBIT)

11,0

12,0

13,0

14,0

15,0

16,0

17,0

2005 2006 2007 2008

EB

IT %

Quarter Rolling 12-months

Run rate 2008 15.8% (16.3)

*Rolling 12-months excludes restructuring and one off costs 2006 of 1,474 MSEK and 2008 of 1,257 MSEK

Page 9: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

9

Accelerating Manufacturing Footprint

Current footprint program a success

40 new projects with planned closure of 15 sites

Consolidation of support functions and administration

Conversion to assembly in high cost countries

Full cost, 1,180 MSEK taken

Payback 2-3 years, 1,800 people

Page 10: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

10

Acquisitions 2008

Acquisitions on temporary hold

18 acquisitions carried through during 2008– Adds 1 900 MSEK annualized, +6%

Additions during fourth quarter – 4 smaller acquisitions

– Delisting of iRevo

SimonsVoss– Court appeal pending

Page 11: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

11

Margin Highlights Q4 2008

Total growth 9%, with organic -4%

EBIT margin 15.5%* (16.5%)

Gross margin maintained

Manufacturing footprint, 24 sites closed Total reduction of 2,143 employeesQuarterly saving 40 MSEK (run rate 130 MSEK, 87% completed)

Contingency plans released

Raw material flat

* Excluding restructuring and one off cost of 1,010 MSEK

Page 12: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

12

Division - EMEA

General drop of construction throughout EMEA

Severe downturn in UK, Spain and Italy

Positive development in Central Europe

Profit supported by footprint savings

Important reduction of employees

Operating margin (EBIT) - Volume -9%

+ Restructuring savings

- Dilution from acquisitions -0,5%

=Raw material slightly positive

SALESshare of

Group total %

39

EBIT %

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 13: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

13

Division - Americas

Positive development on doors and hardware

South America and Canada in good growth

Residential continued down

Profit reaches all time high

Operating margin (EBIT) = Volume +1%

+ Strong efficiency improvement

= Raw materials

SALESshare of

Group total %

30

EBIT %

16

17

18

19

20

21

2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 14: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

14

Division - Asia Pacific

Slowing construction in the whole region

Negative demand within residential in the Pacific

Production for Europe in sharp decline

iRevo and China doors in good growth

Operating margin (EBIT)- Volume -8%

+ Restructuring savings

= Raw material

SALESshare of

Group total %

9

EBIT %

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 15: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

15

Division - Global Technologies

Slight decline in HID and FargoSecure Issuance, Crescendo, Edge and RFID

ITG continued negative

Sales drop in Hospitality due to large projects

Strong project pipeline in all parts but many delays

Strong profit in HID/Fargo and weak in Hospitality and ITG

Operating margin (EBIT)-= Volume HID/Fargo- Hospitality large projects- Weak development of ITG

SALESshare of

Group total %

13

EBIT %

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 16: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

16

Division - Entrance Systems

Weak sales in retail worldwide

Health care and institutions compensates

Good development of service sales

Solid development of Emerging markets

Savings from China and Czech manufacturing

Operating margin (EBIT) = Volume +3%

+ China & Czech

= Raw material

SALESshare of

Group total %

9

EBIT %

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

2005 2006 2007 2008

Page 17: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

17

Q4 Report 2008Tomas Eliasson, CFO

Page 18: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

18

Financial Highlights Q4 2008

MSEK 2007 2008 Change 2007 2008 ChangeTwelve months 4th Quarter

Sales 33,550 34,918 +4% 8,721 9,468 +9%Whereof Organic growth +0% -4%Acquired growth +4% +4%FX-differences +16 +0% +810 +9%

Operating income (EBIT)* 5,458 5,526 +1% 1,440 1,469 +2%EBIT-margin (%)* 16.3 15.8 16.5 15.5

Operating cash flow 4,808 4,769 -1% 1,740 1,916 +10%

EPS (SEK)* 9.02 9.21 +2% 2.30 2.45 +7%

*Excluding restructuring and one off charges of 1,010 MSEK in Q4 and 1,257 for the full year

Page 19: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

19

P&L – Components as % of SalesQ4 Year-on-Year

Direct material 33.0% 33.4%

Conversion costs 25.9% 25.4%

Gross Margin 41.1% 41.2%

S, G & A 24.6% 25.7%

EBIT 16.5% 15.5%

2007 2008*

* Excluding restructuring and one off cost of 1,010 MSEK

Page 20: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

20

Cost Development

Conversion cost = all fixed and variable production costs excluding material

Conversion Cost Rolling 12 MonthsGroup Year-on-Year Changes in Cost

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

20

07

20

08

Adjusted for currency and acquisitions

Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction

Page 21: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

21

Operating Cash Flow, MSEK

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Qua

rter

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

12-m

onth

s

Quarter Rolling 12-months

Page 22: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

22

Gearing % and Net Debt MSEK

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Net debt Gearing

Net debt Gearing

Debt/Equity 74Debt/Equity 74

Page 23: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

23

Maturity Profile Gross Debt

Gross debt

01 0002 0003 0004 0005 0006 0007 0008 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-

Covered by SEK 11 B back-up facilityif necessary

Page 24: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

24

Earnings per Share and Proposed Dividend, SEK

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

9,00

10,00

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

EPS 2008 9.21 (9.02)EPS 2008 (incl oneoff) 6.55Proposed Dividend 3.60 (3.60)

EPS 2008 9.21 (9.02)EPS 2008 (incl oneoff) 6.55Proposed Dividend 3.60 (3.60)

Page 25: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

25

Q4 Report 2008Johan Molin, President & CEO

Page 26: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

26

Conclusion 2008

4% growth

All time high profit despite economic headwind*

Continued investments in R&D and market presence

18 acquisitions

Record strong operational cash flow

*Excluding restructuring and one off cost of 1257 MSEK

Page 27: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

27

Short Term Actions 2009

Stay close to customers

Continue investments in new products

Cost reductions

Cash and margin focus

Be ready to react fast on market opportunities

Page 28: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

28

ASSA ABLOY and the Economic Slowdown

Significant construction slowdown in all parts of the world

Raw material prices will reduce cost from Q1

Manufacturing footprint in full motion– Going forward 16 site closures and >2 000 people

Contingency plans released in Q4 in all divisions

Page 29: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

29

Outlook

Long Term

Organic sales growth is expected to continue at a good rate

The operating margin (EBIT) and operating cash flow are expected to develop well

Outlook for 2009

Significant construction slowdown in all parts of the world

Negative organic growth is expected

Page 30: Q4 Report 2008 Johan Molin, President & CEO · 2010-02-22 · Q4: -5% reductionQ4: -5% reduction. 21 Operating Cash Flow, MSEK 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 4 5

30

Q&A