Putting the workshop and importance of data in context

Eoin Magennis InterTradeIreland

Introductory remarks…

• Why the All-Island Freight Forum?

• Economic, organisational and regulatory contexts

• The past is a different country…

Sales slow to make a comeback with the second half of 2010 proving hazardous…

Lag in any employment upturn…Weighted data

Pe

rce

nta

ge

po

int

diff

ere

nce

-37

-42

-51

-38

-54

-49

-39

-53

7

5

7

7

2

3

3

2

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20

Don’t know

0%

0%

1%

0%

Weighted data

Base: unweighted /weighted

%

Higher levels of small firms more severely impacted by the downturn…

Positive impactModerate adverse impact

Severe adverse impact

No impact

OverallBase: 1029 / 1029

50 or more employeesBase: 110 / 28

11 to 49 employeesBase: 229 / 96

10 or fewer employeesBase: 690 / 905

Weighted data

Base: unweighted /weighted

%

Which of the following best describes the current position of your business?

OverallBase: 1029 / 1029

50 or moreBase: 110 / 28

11 to 49Base: 229/96

Growing/ expansion

StabilisingReducing/ contraction

Survival atAll costs

Winding down

10 or lessBase: 690 / 905

Don’t know

1%

0%

1%

1%-8

-3

-3

-7

-37

-21

-11

-35

-3

0

-2

41

55

59

43

11

21

27

12

-100 -50 0 50 100

-56

-72

-73

-63

-92

-58

-67

-69

24

12

12

20

5

27

13

16

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Decreased Net differenceIncreased

-53%

-54%

-31%

-87%

-43%

-61%

-60%

-32%

Base: unweighted /weighted

%

The same picture varies greatly by sectors…

OverallBase: 1029/ 1029

AgricultureBase: 55 / 57

ConstructionBase: 110 / 107

Leisure, hotels, cateringBase: 161 / 165

ManufacturingBase: 89 / 77

Business servicesBase: 221 / 230

Retail, distributionBase: 272 / 278

Other servicesBase: 121 / 114

Weighted data

Base: unweighted /weighted

%

Which of the following best describes the current position of your business?

OverallBase: 1029 / 1029

AgricultureBase: 55 / 57

ConstructionBase: 110 / 107

Leisure, hotels, cateringBase: 161 / 165

ManufacturingBase: 89 / 77

Business servicesBase: 221 / 230

Retail, distributionBase: 272 / 278

Other servicesBase: 121 / 114

Growing/ expansion

StabilisingReducing/ contraction

Survival atAll costs

Winding down Don’t know

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

4%

0%

0%

-10

-8

-6

-2

-12

-9

-4

-7

-22

-36

-41

-37

-34

-35

-29

-35

-1

-1

-1

-1

-14

-1

-3

-2

51

41

43

42

34

42

56

43

15

13

8

18

5

13

8

12

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Recovery in external trade in 2010 after several years of decline…

Falling levels of cross-border trade after a decade of growth…

Rise in the share of cross-border trade for construction-related goods and products to 2007…

…and a different story in the years since to 2009…

Challenges to business…

% stating a ‘huge issue’ for their business

2010 2011

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Base 1,009 1,029 1,132 1,029

Cashflow and access to credit 28% 27% 27% 24%

A reduction in demand for good and services 28% 28% 27% 26%

Keeping up with innovation in the industry 12% 10% 10% 10%

Lack of appropriate skills in the workforce 4% 3% 3% 3%

Difficulty in recruiting appropriate skills in the workforce 5% 6% 6% 4%

Rising energy/fuel costs 27% 27% 33% 41%

Rising costs from other overheads 26% 29% 33% 41%

Business and consumer confidence 22% 29% 24% 23%

New competitors in your market 12% 12% 11% 13%

Discounting by competitors 12% 22% 19% 24%

Current exchange rate between sterling and the euro 12% 9% 8% 9%

Late payments from customers 27% 25% 25% 22%

Other challenges for the freight industry…

• Restructuring of the industry

• Costs and pricing

• Regulatory environment – including carbon emissions

• Congestion issues

• Connectivity off the island