PushBot Instruction Manual 1.1

Created by JITxpert – July 2010

PushBot Instruction Manual

Created by JITxpertJuly 2010


Contents

• Summary of the PushBot Spreadsheet• cEV Tabs

– PushBot– CallBot– Resteal Bot

• ICM ($EV) Tabs– PushBot– CallBot– Resteal Bot


Summary

• The spreadsheet is essentially a calculator that performs cEV and $EV calculations

• The results are expressed in a 13x13 card matrix, and the +cEV/+$EV cells are highlighted

• All $EV calculations are estimates using the bubble factor formulas (as described in the book “Kill Everyone”)

• The data table was created using PokerStove• Most cells are locked, so you cannot corrupt the

formulas


cEV PushBot

The basic calculation to see if an open shove has a positive expectation is:

Your stack when you steal the blinds + Your stack w hen win when you double up ≥ Starting Stack

Expressing this equation in terms of independent va riables…[(Starting Stack + pre flop pot) * % of times ever yone folds + % of time someone calls * [(pre

flop pot + 2 * Starting Stack) * equity against vil lain’s range] ≥ Starting Stack

What this calculator does is calculate the expected stack of an open shove (expressed as M) for every possible hand based on the (effective) size of the stack you are shoving, the blinds and antes, the number of players left to act, and their assumed calling range. Every cell in the 13x13 card grid di splays the expected long term M based on the variables listed.

I chose to display long term M instead of cEV becaus e as you get to 1,000,000 chips, it wouldn’t fit in the cell.

Created by JITxpert – July 2010Example…Let’s say you are in the CO with 4850, blinds are 1 50/300/25. Your

M is 7.5, you have 16ish BBs. The table right now i s 8 handed.If you believe villains will only call a shove with the top 11% of

hands, what are the hands that you can profitably p ush?


Using the PushBot tab, enter your stack size (the ef fective stack size), the blinds, antes, and players at the table.


Next, enter the number of players left to act, and their assumedcalling range.


All hands that produce a +cEV shove are colored yell ow or green in the 13x13 matrix, with the long term M of the sh ove the valuein the cell. The percentage of hands that are +cEV i s here.


If you want to filter out marginal shoves or highli ght green those very profitable shoves, you can change the percenta ges in the “ROI Filter”


Inputting 3% in the RED CELLS will highlight only t hose hands that produce a >3% ROI. This drops the % of shove h ands (down to 14.3% from 38.8%). Inputting 15% in the GR EEN CELLS will shade in green only those hands that pro duce a >15% ROI.


cEV CallBot

Calling an all in is a pot odds calculation. So thi s spreadsheetcompares the pot odds being offered to the equity y our hand has against the villains shoving range. If the equi ty of your hand against villain’s range is > the pot odds, it’ s a “pot odds call”.

The CallBot Spreadsheet displays in the 13x13 matrix the % equity that hand has against villain’s shoving range. If t hat equity is greater than the equity needed to make the call, th e cell is shaded yellow or green.

Lets say you are playing a turbo SnG, blinds are 20 0/400/50, and someone with 4850 shoves from the CO. You are in th e BB and have villain covered. What hands can you profitably call?


Enter the pot size, and the amount you have to call the AI, and estimate villain’s shoving range (make sure it is the effective pot, a nd not overstated if villain has you covered).

Green and yellow cells are pot odds calls. The % of calling hands is also displayed.

You can filter out marginal calls or highlight good calls the same way as you did with PushBot.


cEV RestealBot

A Resteal is favorable when the following is true:Your stack when you steal the blinds and villain ra ise + Your stack when you are called and

double up ≥ Hero’s Resteal (starting) Stack

Expressing this equation in terms of independent va riables…[(pre flop pot + villain’s raise + Resteal Stack) * Villain’s Fold %] + [(1 – Villain’s Fold %) * (pre

flop pot + 2 * Resteal Stack) * equity against villa in’s range] ≥ Resteal Stack

Solving this equitation for Villain’s Fold %Villain’s Fold % ≥[Resteal Stack - (pre flop pot + 2 * Resteal Stack) * equity against villain’s range)] / [pre flop pot + villain’s raise - equity against vil lain’s range * (pre flop pot + 2 * Resteal Stack)]

The RestealBot Spreadsheet displays in the 13x13 mat rix the % of time villain has to fold their open raise in order for the Restealto have a positive expectation.


You are in the BB with 7000 chips after posting at the 125/250/25 level. The table is 9 handed and the CO opens to 75 0. You think the CO is opening about top 19% here, but will only call a shovewith top 7.4% (so will fold (19-7.4)/19 or about 60 % of the time). What hands produce a +cEV shove?


First, enter the BB, antes, players at the table.


Enter villain’s raise size, their calling range, ho w much you have behind to resteal with (After posting if you are in the blinds. And again, use effective if you have villain covere d).


Estimate how often villain will fold. To help with this, look at the two columns where you can see what open percentage corr elates to thefold/calling ranges. In our example, if villain is calling a shove with top 7.5% and folds 60%, their assumed open range is 18. 48%.


Cells in green are +cEV resteals. Cells in black are unexploitableresteals (even if villain calls 100% of the time, it is +cEV due to your equity against the calling range and the overlay). The cell value is the % of time villain needs to fold for it to be a neutral cEV play.


If we change one assumption, that villain instead w ould open top30% from the CO, but still calls with only top 7.5% . Now, villain is folding 75% of their open range, making the followi ng hands profitable resteals.


Changing one more assumption, villain opens top 30% from the CO, but calls a little looser, let’s say top 11%. S o villain is folding out 62% of their open range. Now see what can be a +cEV resteal.


cEV Notes

• All the data for each hand’s equity against the pre defined ranges are under the tab “Equity Data for Ranges”. This table was created by me inputting each hand into PokerStove, calculating it against t he range, then copy and pasting the result in the tabl e.


ICM Bots

The ICM Bot tabs are exactly the same as the cEV tabs except:– You need to estimate your bubble factor. The bubble factor is the $

loss in prize pool equity if the play fails divided by the $ gained if the play succeeds. (To learn how estimate Bubble Fa ctors, troll the threads, or read Kill Everyone.)

Things to note– The bubble factor can never be < 1.0 (according to ICM)– Setting the bubble factor = 1 will produce the same results as the

cEV Bots– Calculate your bubble factor before posting blinds and antes. Then

every pot odds decision you make from that point fo rward will get “corrected” by the bubble factor.


ICM Bots

• To do the ICM estimates, I converted all the Equity Data to Odds (expressed as X:1). The data is under the tab “Odds Data for Ranges”– In Kill Everyone, you can compensate for the non-li nearity of chip

value to prize pool equity for any pot odds decisio n by dividing pot odds by the Bubble Factor. Your hand’s equity again st villain’s range has to be greater than the Pot Odds divided b y the Bubble Factor for the play to be +$EV.

Hand equity (expressed as odds) > Pot Odds / Bubble Factor

– Once you know a hand’s equity (expressed as odds) a gainst a range, you can calculate the Pot Odds required to h ave the play be $EV favorable.

Hand Equity * Bubble Factor > Pot Odds being offere d

– The spreadsheet converts the prize pool corrected e quity for each hand back to equity expressed as %, and then perfor ms all of thestandard calculations in the 13x13 matrix.


For Example

• AJs has 0.47078 equity against the Top 11% range in the spreadsheet (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo)

• Converting the equity to odds, AJs has 1.12:1 odds against the range

• If you assume a bubble factor of 1.5, the spreadshe et corrects the odds for AJs against that range, so now the odds are (1.12*1.5):1, or 1.68:1

• Converting the prize pool corrected odds back to % equity gives 1- (1.68/2.68) = 0.37313

• All the ICM Bot Tabs will then use the prize pool corrected equity for AJs against that range when doing the standard calculations


ICM PushBot Example

• Remember the PushBot Example from earlier? Exact sam e assumptions, but this time, you are at the final ta ble. The BTN,SB and BB have you covered, and the UTG and MP play er are both short.

• Prior to posting, you estimate that you have $500 o f prize pool equity. If you shove and bust, the payout is $250. If you shove and double up, your prize pool equity increases to $625.

• Your bubble factor in this spot is (500-250)/(625-5 00) = 1.5

Created by JITxpert – July 2010Enter all the same information as before.Now enter the Bubble Factor. Notice when the bubble factor = 1,

you have the same answer as the cEV PushBot.


Change the bubble factor to 1.5. Notice how many ha nds drop out due to the prize pool equity loss when you get called. You go from profitably shoving 38% of hands to just 8%.This highlights the phenomena of non-linear $ value of chips in a tournament. The value of the chips you would win by getting called is less than the value of the chips you would lose. Th us, you need much better odds for winning for the shove to be profita ble.


ICM RestealBot Example

• Remember the RestealBot Example from earlier? Exact same assumptions, but this time, you are at the final ta ble and the CO has you covered.

• Prior to posting, you estimate that you have $500 o f prize pool equity. If you shove and bust, the payout is $250. If you shove and double up, your equity increases to $625.

• Your bubble factor in this spot is (500-250)/(625-5 00) = 1.5


Enter all the same information as before.Now enter the Bubble Factor. Notice when the bubble factor = 1,

you have the same answer as the cEV RestealBot.


Changing the Bubble Factor to 1.5 changes the numbe r of profitable resteal hands. The number of profitable r esteal hands is greatly reduced. Also the number of unexploitabl e hands changes.


Don’t forget, ICM affects villain as well! So you h ave to consider that he will tighten up his calling range (thus fol ding out morehands). So try this with some new assumptions.

Change calling range to top 5%. Now, to get to his open range toabout the same as before, you need to have villain fold 72% of the time. Now see what makes a profitable resteal.


Closing ICM Thoughts

• The Bubble Factor way of doing ICM is an “easy to d o on the fly” estimate. Straight ICM calcs are always more acc urate than the estimates provided by bubble factors.

• Because the minute you or anyone else puts chips in the pot, everyone’s equity changes, using bubble factors wil l only ever be an estimate and never be as accurate as doing a straight ICM calc.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36/stt-strategy/i cm-101-calling-shoves-1k-post-227022/

• The above link will produce the exact result for ho w to call a shove with ICM considerations, where as using bubbl e factors will get you close (within a percent or two).

• SnG Wiz is more accurate than this spreadsheet. It c an handle overcalls, different calling ranges for villains, a nd perform exact ICM calcs.

Documents

PushBot Instruction Manual 1.1