Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Pollsandand

the 2008 Presidential Election

Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D.Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D.Professor and Department ChairDepartment of Public & International AffairsDepartment of Public & International AffairsUniversity of North Carolina Wilmington

lowery@uncw.eduwww.uncw.edu/people/lowery

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Professional Standards

http://www.aapor.org/standardsethicsp p g

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T i l l iTypical pre-electionlli tipolling questions

Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a –think of yourself as a –

R bliA. Republican, B. Democrat,B. Democrat, C. Independent?

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PartyId tifi tiIdentification:

2000-20082000 2008

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P id i l lPresidential approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the y pp ppway George W. Bush is handling his job as president?job as president?

A. ApproveB DisapproveB. Disapprove

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C i l lCongressional approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?way Congress is handling its job?

A. ApproveB DisapproveB. Disapprove

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R ti th U SRating the U.S. economy

H d t th U SHow do you rate the U.S. economy –

A. Excellent/Good

B. Only fair/poor

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Iraq War: Right or Wrong?Iraq War: Right or Wrong?Considering everything do you thinkConsidering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to ar ith Iraq or do o thinkgoing to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?

A Did the right thingA. Did the right thingB. It was a mistakeC. Not sure

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Iraq War: What to do now?Iraq War: What to do now?

Regardless of whether we should have invaded Iraq, what should we do now?q,

A Keep U S troops in Iraq until theA. Keep U.S. troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized

B. Bring U.S. troops home as soon as possiblepossible

C. Not sure

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G l ti f tiGeneral satisfaction

In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?g g

A S ti fi dA. SatisfiedB. DissatisfiedB. Dissatisfied

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Presidential-election vote:

If the presidential election were today,If the presidential election were today, would you vote for:

A. John McCain

B Barack ObamaB. Barack Obama

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Electoral-vote projectionp j(3 November 2008 at www.electoral-vote.com)

Ob 353 M C i 185 Ti d 0Obama 353 McCain 185 Tied 0

21Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA NV NM OH VA = 101

www.electoral-vote.com13 November 200813 November 2008

Projected electoral votes (based on state polls) omitting the “too-close-to-call" & tied states in which neither candidate

has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent.

22Obama 311 McCain 132 Too-close-to call 95 Ties 0

Final Electoral College Map – 2008g(50 states + DC)

23http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Final Electoral College Map – 2008g(3,077 counties, parishes, & boroughs)

24http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2008/

Links to election poll resultsLinks to election-poll results

2008 Presidential electionhttp://www.electoral-vote.com/ Proslavery Origins of Electoral College

2008 U S Senate races2008 U.S. Senate raceshttp://www.pollster.com/polls/2008senate/

2008 U.S. House raceshttp://www.pollster.com/house.php

2008 U.S. Gubernatorial raceshttp://www.pollster.com/polls/2008governor/

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p p p g

Links to other useful polling & elections websites

http://people.uncw.edu/lowery/pls302/index.htm

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