OPINION POLLS IN A DEMOCRACY - OUPglobal.oup.com/us/companion.websites/fdscontent/uscompanion/us/static... · OPINION POLLS IN A DEMOCRACY (EXERCISE) Public opinion polls are an important

OPINION POLLS IN A DEMOCRACY (EXERCISE)

Public opinion polls are an important form of public input into political decision making. There

is some controversy about the role polls (also called surveys) should play in a democracy. A real

plus is that polling is a more direct way for the public to express policy preferences than is going

through elected representatives whose job is to filter, interpret, bundle, and sometimes ignore

citizens’ views. A negative is that polling bypasses deliberation, bargaining, and other important

features of decision making.

Many polls do not try to uncover how important the views are to the respondents and whether

they are likely to follow through with political action. Because expressing an opinion is easier

than acting on it, decision makers may give more weight to constituents concerned enough to

communicate directly, lobby, and vote.

Because polls both report and shape public opinion, they should be used carefully. Survey results

may be ambiguous and inconsistent; sometimes they are not highly credible and not specific

enough to guide policy making. They also are subject to cherry-picking, when advocates search

for polls that support their political position and their opponents do the same.

Public leaders know that public opinion changes in response to changing circumstances. Media

exposure, the availability of new information, the calming effect of passing time, and other

factors affect the public’s judgments. Perhaps a new crisis pushes an earlier concern off the radar

screen. This is reassuring because it means that many in “the public” are flexible, not dogmatic,

and have the capacity to learn. Because public opinion can and does change, “snapshot” surveys

taken only once are less useful than when the questions are repeated over time and trends are

identified.

2

Then, too, politicians face multiple issues at the same time. Some of these are framed as budget

issues and some not. Public responses to a budget question out of the larger political context may

not give useful guidance to public leaders.

It is important for all users—decision makers, citizens, and the media—to distinguish valid polls

from counterfeit polls. Many polls are legitimate, objective, and scientifically valid. For

example, surveys that sample the population are subject to sampling error, meaning that the

results may be different from what the entire population would say; the size of the sampling error

should be disclosed for each question.

Mainstream media, think tanks, and universities undertake many state and local polls. Other polls

(such as self-selected online polls) are not valid readings of opinions held by the general public.

Some polls are fraudulent public relations devices aimed at convincing the “respondents” of

some viewpoint or that the sender cares what they think. Polls are open to abuse and

manipulation; loaded wording, differences in the format of questions, sampling bias, and careless

or biased analysis of the survey results may distort our understanding of the public’s views.

Take a Close Look at a Survey

Included here is a press release and a survey commissioned by an alliance of state employee

unions. Released when the governor submitted her budget proposal to the legislature early in

2009, it obviously supports a political message: do not cut services or lay off employees but

instead raise taxes. It is designed to counter the governor’s ability to set the agenda and frame the

issues in budgetary politics. The budget battle in 2009 was shaped by (1) a large and rapidly

increasing deficit, sharply falling state revenues, and an economic downturn of historic

proportion; (2) a very popular, fiscally conservative, Republican governor; and (3) a veto-proof

Democratic majority in both houses of the legislature.

3

A professional polling organization designed and administered the telephone survey that was

conducted by professional interviewers in January 2009. Drawn by random selection from the

voter file, 600 adult voters likely to vote in the 2010 general election were surveyed. The data

were weighted by gender, age, union membership, party, race, and county to represent the

population accurately. The margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0 percent.

Source: Reprinted by permission of the Connecticut State Employees Bargaining Agent

Coalition (SEBAC) and Myers Research & Strategic Services. SEBAC, Press Release of January

30 2009; Myers Research & Strategic Services, Memorandum of January 27, 2009 and

attachments.

World Public Opinion, 1999. Expecting More Say, http://www.policyattitudes.org/ems.htm,

accessed Sept. 25, 2007.

http://www.policyattitudes.org/ems.htm

AFT Connecticut

American Associationof University Professors– Connecticut StateUniversity

American Associationof University Professors– UCONN

American Federation ofState, County, &Municipal Employees -Council 4

Congress ofConnecticutCommunity Colleges/SEIU Local 1973

ConnecticutAssociation ofProsecutors

Connecticut EmployeesUnion Independent/SEIU Local 511

ConnecticutFederations of SchoolAdministrators Local 61

Connecticut StatePolice Union

CSEA SEIU Local 2001

InternationalBrotherhood of PoliceOfficers/SEIU Local 731

New EnglandHealthcare EmployeesUnion,District 1199/SEIU

Protective ServicesEmployeesCoalition/IAFF-IUPA

Media Advisory for Friday, Jan. 30, 2009:

Contact: Larry Dorman, (860) 989-9127 (cell) Matt O'Connor (860) 221-5696 (cell)

Eric Bailey, (860) 997-2717 (cell)

Poll Shows Public has No Appetite for Cuts in ServicesProvided by the State

Voters believe cuts to public services will further damage Connecticut's economy

A newly released poll shows that broad majorities of Connecticut voters say thatcutting services like health care, education, and road maintenance during a timeof recession will further damage the economy and that job layoffs, whether inthe public sector or the private sector, will do the same.

"With significant media attention given to state employees and the state budget,we wanted to find out how voters in Connecticut viewed the services providedby state workers, how they felt about the public service workers themselves,and what the voters believe would be the best way to begin to rebuildConnecticut’s damaged economy," said Andrew Myers of Myers Research,Strategic Services, LLC.

Most compelling is that when voters are asked to choose the best option forbalancing Connecticut's budget, a strong majority (54 percent) chose increasingtaxes. Notably, generating new revenue outpaces the other alternatives by verysignificant margins, with just 19 percent favoring cuts to services and just 15percent choosing layoffs of public service workers.

"The findings in this survey are crystal clear in that Connecticut voters inherentlyunderstand just what many Nobel Prize-winning economists have been saying --that is, cutting public services in an economic downturn further damages analready fragile economy" Myers said.

"Every day we hear from people who thank us for our services," says statetrooper Steven Rief, a 20-year veteran of the force and President of theConnecticut State Police Union. "It's a true honor to serve the people of ourstate, and I'm very heartened by the poll results that show that our services areso highly valued."

The poll also provided a roadmap for how Connecticut voters prefer to raisenew revenue to fund critical services. Specifically, topping the list are plans toeliminate corporate tax loopholes, followed by strong majority support forraising taxes on the wealthiest.

The Connecticut State Police Union is one of thirteen unions in the StateEmployee Bargaining Agent Coalition (SEBAC), which serves to uniteapproximately 50,000 Connecticut State Employees to address issues ofcommon concern.

The poll, commissioned by SEBAC, surveyed 600 Connecticut likely 2010 voters. The poll wasdesigned and administered by Myers Research, Strategic Services, LLC. Calling took placebetween January 21 and 23, 2009 and was conducted by professional interviewers. The dataare stratified by the projected geographic contribution to the expected total statewide vote.The margin of error for this survey at a 95 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0 percent. Themargin of error for subgroups is greater and varies.

Attached:• Memorandum

" Voters Value Connecticut Public Service Workers and Services;No Appetite for Layoffs or Cuts"

• SEBAC - Connecticut Statewide ResearchQuestion & Response Slides

# # #

6225 Cardinal Brook Court | Springfield, VA 22152 ph. 703.451.8424 | fax 703.451.8428 | www.myersandpartners.com

Memorandum

Date: January 27, 2009 To: Interested Parties From: Andrew Myers and Lauren Spangler Myers Research | Strategic Services

Voters Value Connecticut Public Service Workers and Services No Appetite for Layoffs or Cuts

With Connecticut - like most other states - facing a massive budget shortfall, the state’s voters show little willingness to make cuts to state services or to lay off public service workers, according to the results of a recent statewide survey1. Of most importance is that voters believe that state public service workers perform vital, necessary services that benefit all residents. Further, broad majorities of voters say that cutting services like health care, education, and road maintenance during a time of recession will further damage the economy and that job layoffs, whether in the public sector or the private sector, will do the same. In addition, these same voters believe that there should be few, if any, cuts to services the state provides. Notably, Connecticut public service workers receive strong ratings across-the-board, earning a 66-degree mean personal feeling thermometer on a 0 to 100 scale,2 based on a favorable-to-unfavorable ratio of 61 to 11 percent. Specific public service workers, such as corrections officers, janitors, public school teachers, and doctors and nurses in state health care facilities earn even stronger reviews individually. And, when it comes to the job that Connecticut public service workers are doing, a broad majority of voters (56 percent) give them excellent or good reviews, while just 33 percent rate their performance as just fair or poor. More compelling, however, when voters are asked to choose between making large, across-the-board cuts to all public services, laying off a large portion of public service

1 These findings are based on a survey of 600 likely November 2010 voters in Connecticut. Calling took place from November

January 21-23, 2009, and interviews were conducted by professional interviewers supervised by Myers Research | Strategic Services staff. The data were stratified to reflect the projected geographical contribution to the total expected vote,. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 in 100 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is greater. 2 Myers Research | Strategic Services uses a mean thermometer scale of zero to one hundred to measure candidate personal

standing. Zero represents a very cool, negative feeling, one hundred represents a very warm, favorable feeling, and 50 means neither warm nor cool. The mean thermometer score is derived among respondents who can rate individual or group.

Connecticut Statewide Survey Findings 2


workers, or increasing taxes on the wealthiest and big corporations, a strong majority (54 percent) choose to increase taxes in order to balance Connecticut’s budget. Notably, raising taxes outpaces the other alternatives by very significant margins, with just 19 percent favoring cuts to services and just 15 percent choosing layoffs of public service workers. Clearly, there is little to no appetite for cuts or layoffs, and the Governor and legislature would be wise to begin by finding new revenue. Importantly, this survey also provides a roadmap for how voters prefer to raise new revenue to fund critical services. Specifically, topping the list are plans to eliminate corporate tax loopholes, followed by strong majority support for raising taxes on the wealthiest – that is families earning more than $150,000 a year, but particularly those earning a million dollars or more each year. Notably, even in Fairfield County we see majority level support for raising taxes on the wealthiest families. Further, though with somewhat less intensity than the latter two, there is broad support for raising cigarette and alcohol taxes, as well as for raising the sales tax by one penny and expanding the services it covers. In fact, the only tax increase that voters’ feel should be off the table is raising the state’s gas tax, which is met with strong majority disapproval. A more detailed analysis of the survey’s central findings follows. State Public Service Workers Earn Solid Ratings Somewhat counter to trends often observed, Connecticut public service workers earn strong personal and professional ratings from the state’s voters. On the whole, Connecticut public service workers receive a warm 66-degree mean personal feeling thermometer, with 61 percent of voters rating them favorably and 11 percent giving them unfavorable reviews, and as displayed below, reviews grow even stronger for specific workers, such as public school teachers, corrections officers, doctors and nurses in state health care facilities, and janitors.



When it comes to the job Connecticut public service workers are doing, a broad majority of voters (56 percent) give them excellent or good ratings, while one third (33 percent) rate their job performance as just fair or poor. Beneath the surface, a majority of all partisan audiences give public service workers positive job reviews, with registered Democrats (62 percent excellent/good – 30 percent fair/poor) and registered Republicans (59 percent excellent/good – 29 percent fair/poor) giving them nearly equal job ratings. Among registered independents, public service workers earn slightly more mixed job reviews, with a bare majority (50 percent) rating the job they are doing as excellent or good and 38 percent giving them just fair or poor reviews. Beyond the strong personal and professional ratings they receive, probing voters about state public service workers provides further evidence that they are valued and widely perceived as providing critical services. Agreement that state public service workers “perform vital and needed services that benefit us all” is nearly universal, with 87 percent of voters overall agreeing with this statement. Further, verbatim responses about public service workers reinforce the notion that they perform essential functions, while often receiving less recognition than they deserve.

“They keep everything working.”

“They’re here to help you in all kinds of weather.”



“They deserve much more than what people give them.”

“They are working for the people.” Voters Broadly Open to Raising Taxes But Oppose Service Cuts and Layoffs When voters are presented with a choice – between making large, across-the-board cuts to all public services, laying off a large portion of public service workers, or increasing taxes on the wealthiest and big corporations, a majority (54 percent) choose to increase taxes in order to balance Connecticut’s budget. In contrast, just 19 percent want services cut and only 15 percent choose to layoff public service workers. Some gaps do emerge beneath the surface, although it is important to note that pluralities of all demographic audiences choose to increase taxes on the wealthiest and big corporations when forced to make the choice. Blue-collar audiences, those without a college degree, overwhelmingly choose raising taxes on big corporations and the wealthiest (60 percent), with 17 percent choosing cuts to services, and only 11 percent wanting to lay off public service workers. In contrast, more upscale college graduates are less willing to raise taxes on big corporations and the wealthy (49 percent) and slightly more willing to choose cuts to services (21 percent) and worker layoffs (20 percent) than their less-educated counterparts. This education gap is driven largely by college-educated men and older college graduates, those over age 50. Additionally, as detailed in the table below, broad majorities of both Democrats and independents choose raising taxes on big corporations and the wealthiest individuals over other options. In comparison, more tax-sensitive Republicans are more willing than other partisans to see service cuts or worker layoffs, though even a plurality of them favor tax increases over other options.

BEST APPROACH TO BALANCING THE BUDGET

Tax Increases Service Cuts Worker Layoffs Total 54 19 15 Self-ID Democrats 63 16 12 Self-ID Independents 55 19 16 Self-ID Republicans 39 24 21

Registered Democrats 60 16 15 Registered Independents 55 18 14 Registered Republicans 43 25 18

When probing voters more deeply about service cuts and laying off public sector employees, broad majorities of voters say that cutting services like health care, education, and road maintenance during a time of recession will further damage the economy and that job layoffs, whether in the public sector or the private sector, will do the same. In fact, there is very little evidence that voters agree with the cuts and layoffs



proposed by the Governor, and she and other government leaders are likely to face significant backlash if they move forward with these proposals.

Further underscoring the notion that Connecticut voters are much more willing to raise taxes than to cut critical services is a split-sample message exercise, with one construct pitting the Governor’s proposal against a plan to make cuts to services and increase some taxes, and another construct with the Governor’s proposal pitted against a plan to close corporate tax loopholes and raise taxes on the wealthiest, without cutting critical services. The exact language of these three approaches to closing the budget deficit is displayed below.



In this exercise, voters respond considerably more strongly to raising taxes on corporations and the wealthiest while keeping critical services than they do to making cuts to services and increasing some taxes.



Closing Corporate Tax Loopholes, Raising Taxes for Wealthiest Seen As Solutions To Ensure Funding of Critical Services Providing even further proof of Connecticut voters’ willingness to tax big corporations, as we see in virtually every state in which we conduct research, broad support exists for eliminating corporate tax loopholes that allow corporations to pay less in taxes than they actually owe. Support for closing these loopholes is both broad and deep, and in fact, a large majority of nearly every bloc of voters in the state strongly favors this proposal. As highlighted below, support for eliminating corporate tax loopholes crosses partisan lines, though Democrats clearly fuel the intensity behind closing these loopholes.

Aside from eliminating corporate tax loopholes, raising taxes on the wealthiest – that is families earning more than $150,000 a year, but particularly those earning a million dollars a year or more – is favored by a broad majority of voters across the state. Notably, even in Fairfield County, highlighted in the graph below as the New York Media Market, we see majority level support for raising taxes on the wealthiest families, with a bare majority there strongly favoring this tax increase on the wealthiest.



Finally, broad support does exist for raising cigarette and alcohol taxes, though the intensity behind these increases is somewhat less than we see for eliminating corporate loopholes and raising taxes on the wealthiest. Voters are somewhat open to raising the sales tax by one penny and expanding the services and goods it covers, though again it lacks intensity among voters across the board. Importantly, it is only a gas tax increase that proves incredibly unpopular here, just as it does in virtually every other state, and in fact, two thirds of Connecticut voters (69 percent) actually oppose raising the gas tax. Clearly, any attempt to raise the state’s gas tax should be off the table.



SEBAC Connecticut Statewide Research

6225 Cardinal Brook Court | Springfield, VA 22152 | Ph. 703.451.8424 | Fx. 703.451.8428 | www.myersandpartners.com

Myers Research | Strategic Services, LLC designed and administered this telephone survey conducted by

professional interviewers. The survey reached 600 adults, 18 years or older, who indicated they are almost

certain or probably will vote in the 2010 election. The survey was conducted January 21-23, 2009. The

margin of error associated with these data at a 95 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0 percent. The margin of

error for subgroups is higher and varies.

State Public Service Workers Well Regarded Across the Board Q9 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero

meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or

organization, please say so.

Slide 2

3

5

7

7

11

60

71

74

80

61

74

74

75

76

66

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Janitors

Doctors and nurses in state health care facilities

Connecticut state police

Public school teachers

Connecticut public service workers

Mean Personal Feeling Thermometer Percent Warm Percent Cool

State Public Service Workers Well Regarded Across the Board Q9 Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero

meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or

organization, please say so.

Slide 3

5

9

5

11

53

70

58

61

71

71

73

66

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Corrections officers

Professors in our state colleges and universities

State park rangers

Connecticut public service workers

Mean Personal Feeling Thermometer Percent Warm Percent Cool

Slide 4

State Employees Perceived to Fill Vital Role

87

10

Q33 State employees perform vital and needed services that

benefit us all

Percent Agree Percent Disagree

Net

Difference

+77

“They are working for the people of

Connecticut”

“They keep everything working”

“…we need them”

Slide 5

Public Has No Appetite for State Employee Layoffs or Deep

Budget Cuts – High Premium on Maintaining ServicesQ.32 Now, I am going to read you several statements and I want you to tell me whether you agree or disagree with each statement.

42

43

46

77

83

84

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

(SPLIT B) Cutting public services, like education and health care, lead to greater costs for the state further

down the road

Job layoffs, whether for public sector or private sector employees, hurt everyone and further weaken the

economy

(SPLIT A) Cutting public services like health care, education and road maintenance during a time of

recession further damages the economy and denies critical services to citizens at the very time they are

needed most

Strongly Agree Total Agree

Slide 6

Voters See New Revenue Creation as Solution to Budget DeficitQ42 I am going to read you several approaches they might be able to take in order to balance the state budget ,and after I read the approaches ,please tell

me which approach would be your top choice for balancing the state's budget.

54

19

15

11 Increase taxes on the wealthiest and big corporations

Make large across the board cuts to all public services

Layoff a large portion of public employees

(Don't know/refused)

Three Competing Approaches to Balancing the Budget

Slide 7

Rell’s Approach: Some leaders, including Governor Rell, say Connecticut must not raise taxes in this

economic climate, and instead we must make deep cuts to state spending and focus government on the

core services it should provide in order to balance the budget and address this shortfall. They say

Connecticut is facing the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and raising taxes now would

hurt businesses and cost us needed jobs, making our economy even worse. They say we have to solve

this budget crisis with spending cuts alone.

(SPLIT A) Shared Sacrifices Approach: Other legislative leaders say that we cannot balance the budget

with spending cuts alone as they will damage the economy further, and we have to consider a

combination of spending cuts and some increases in state taxes. They say there needs to be shared

sacrifices by everyone, and the state should make cuts to a variety of public services, increase income

tax rates for the wealthiest, as well as close corporate tax loopholes so we can protect those state

services that are most vital.

(SPLIT B) Increase Revenue/No Cuts Approach: Other leaders in the state legislature, relying on Nobel

Prize winning economists, say our economy has fallen into recession ,and now is not the time to make

drastic cuts to jobs and services which will only damage our economy further and put us deeper into

recession. Rather, they say this is the time to bring about real structural change and reform to state

government, while working to protect and improve public services like education, worker training and

health care so we can create jobs and strengthen our economy. They propose balancing the budget by

eliminating corporate tax loopholes that allow big corporations to pay less in taxes than middle-class

families do, and increasing taxes on the wealthiest.

Larger Plurality Prefer Increasing Revenue, with No Cuts to

Services, to Governor’s Spending Cuts

Slide 8

46

34

Q45 Split B: Rell’s Approach v Increase Revenue/No Cuts Approach

Agree with Increase Revenue/No Cuts Approach

Agree with Rell's Approach

Net

Difference

+12

42

37

Q44 Split A: Rell’s Approach v Shared Sacrifices Approach

Agree with Shared Sacrifices Approach

Agree with Rell's Approach

Net

Difference

+5

Slide 9

This is Reinforced By Populist Theme

Q.32 Now, I am going to read you several statements and I want you to tell me whether you agree or disagree with each statement.

48

48

78

79

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Our tax code has too many loopholes that allow big corporations to avoid paying their fair share

in state taxes

The rich are getting richer while the rest of us fall further behind

Strongly Agree Total Agree

Slide 10

Near Majority Strongly Favor Raising Taxes on Wealthiest in

Connecticut, Starting at $150,000Q46 (SPLIT A) Raise income taxes on the wealthiest in Connecticut, with the smallest increase for those earning $150,000 a

year, slightly more for those earning $500 ,000 a year and the largest for those earning a million dollars a year or more.

44

50

42

43

43

52

46

81

89

78

76

85

90

83

0 20 40 60 80 100

Hartford/New Haven Market

New York Market

Hartford

Eastern

New Haven

Western

Total

Strongly Favor Total Favor

Slide 11

Similar Results for Incrementally Raising Taxes on Wealthiest in

Connecticut, Starting at $200,000Q47 (SPLIT B) Raise income taxes on the wealthiest in Connecticut, with the smallest increase for those earning $200,000 a

year, slightly more for those earning $500,000 a year and the largest for those earning a million dollars a year or more.

45

52

41

42

47

55

47

76

83

80

69

82

81

78

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Hartford/New Haven Market

New York Market

Eastern

Hartford

New Haven

Western

Total


Slide 12

Broad Majority Strongly Favor

Eliminating Corporate Tax LoopholesQ52 Eliminate corporate tax loopholes, such as the loophole that allows out-of-state corporations to underreport their Connecticut earnings,

and thus pay less in state taxes to Connecticut than they actually owe.

52

51

62

52

57

60

57

83

80

85

81

85

83

83

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Registered Republicans

Registered Indpendents

Registered Democrats

Self-ID Republicans

Self-ID Independents

Self-ID Democrats

Total


Slide 13

Strongest Messages to Support Raising Taxes

on Wealthiest and Big CorporationsQ.67 Now, let me read you a series of reasons people have given to support closing the state budget deficit mostly with tax increases on wealthy individuals and

businesses. For each, please tell me whether this is a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing or not at all convincing.

34

34

35

35

65

66

66

67

0 20 40 60 80Very Convincing Very/Somewhat Convincing

Too many middle-class families are struggling, and for too long the richest

and most powerful corporations haven't paid their fair share. Our economy is

in recession and these corporations are taking advantage of bailouts while

the middle class gets no help. Government needs to focus on the middle

class and rescuing us, not protecting rich CEOs and powerful corporations.

Like the rest of the country, Connecticut faces a deep economic downturn.

Raising taxes is never an appealing option, but drastic cuts to state services

and large-scale layoffs will actually make our economic crisis worse and

undermine any economic stimulus efforts. Raising taxes on the wealthiest

and closing corporate tax loopholes is a better way to eliminate our budget

deficit without damaging our economy further.

If we cut services and state investments in our economy, we will only see more

jobs lost, businesses close and a deeper recession. We need to make big

corporations and the rich pay their fair share to balance our budget so middle-

class families don't fall further behind.

For too long the wealthiest and big corporations have benefited from tax

breaks, while taxes for middle-class families have only gone up. Raising taxes

on big corporations and the wealthiest can balance our budget without hurting

middle class families who are struggling.

Slide 14

Creating New Revenue with Tobacco and Alcohol Taxes Also

an Option, As Is Sales TaxQ46 And still thinking about the six billion dollar state budget deficit, I am going to read you a number of options that state legislators and the

governor could use to address the budget shortfall, and for each please tell me whether you favor or oppose that proposal.

10

23

37

38

29

58

70

68

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Raise the gas tax

Raise the state sales tax by one penny

Raise the state tax on alcohol

Raise the state tax on cigarettes and other tobacco products


Slide 15

K-12 Education, Health Care for Special Populations and Child

Protection all Sacrosanct Budget ItemsQ58 Now, I am going to read you several areas of state spending and for each one please tell me whether to close the state budget shortfall,

legislators and the Governor should reduce funding for that service a lot, a little or not at all.

Budget Area Total Reduce Total Not At All Difference:

Reduce – Not Reduce

Health care services for

chronically ill and elderly19 75 -56

Nursing home care for the

elderly22 71 -49

K through 12 education 23 72 -49

Child protection and

enforcement26 69 -43

Health care services for the

poor and disadvantaged27 68 -41

Community colleges, and

4-year public colleges and

universities

36 58 -22

Public safety, including

prisons and state police45 51 -6

What Do You Think?

1. Surveys both report and shape public opinion. To whom is the press release appealing?

(See the Web site resource, Advocacy Politics ).

2. Is releasing this survey a useful tactic in advocacy politics? Is it effective in helping to set

the agenda and reframe the issues in budgetary politics?

3. Does this poll provide useful guidance to public leaders? How should decision makers

look at the results of this poll? Should decision makers be concerned about how important the

views are to the respondents and whether voters and taxpayers are likely to act on the opinions

they express? What about the snapshot nature of the data?

4. The pollsters’ memorandum (p. 2) says, “Importantly, this survey also provides a

roadmap for how voters prefer to raise new revenue to fund critical services.” Does it?

5. Is this poll legitimate, objective, and scientifically valid, and how do you know? Think

about the methodology.

6. Now consider the possibility that the questions with responses that do not support the

coalition’s political agenda may not be released. After all, who owns the results? If polls are

publicly released, should ownership dictate control? Information on sampling error is provided in

reputable surveys. Should disclosure information be provided as well? Is it important to know

this, and why?

Further Resources

Altman, Drew and Mollyann Brodie, 2002. Opinions on Public Opinion Polling, The admissions

of two serial pollsters. Health Affairs, August,

http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/hlthaff.w2.276v1, accessed April 2, 2010.

American Association for Public Opinion Research, http://www.aapor.org.

http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/

Asher, Herbert, 2001. Polling and the Public, What Every Citizen Should Know. 5th

ed.

Washington, D.C.: CQ Press.

Brodie, Mollyann, Lisa Ferraro Marmelee, April Brackett, and Drew E. Altman, 2001. “The Will

of the People.” Public Perspective, special issue on Polling and Democracy, July/August, pp.

10–24.

Chard, Richard E., 2004. The Mediating Effect of Public Opinion on Public Policy: Exploring

the Realm of Health Care. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press.

Gallup Poll, on most important problem at http://www.gallup.com and video clips at

http://www.gallup.com/tag/Video%20Reports.aspx, accessed April 2, 2010.

Stimson, James A. 2004. Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics.

Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Web site resource, Internet Resources, Public Opinion ().

http://www.gallup.com/

Documents

OPINION POLLS IN A DEMOCRACY - OUPglobal.oup.com/us/companion.websites/fdscontent/uscompanion/us/static... · OPINION POLLS IN A DEMOCRACY (EXERCISE) Public opinion polls are an important