Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics andDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University

I collaborators:I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, ColumbiaI David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington UniversityI Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&MI Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, HarvardI Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, CaltechI Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics andDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University

I collaborators:I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, ColumbiaI David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington UniversityI Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&MI Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, HarvardI Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, CaltechI Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics andDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University

I collaborators:I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, ColumbiaI David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington UniversityI Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&MI Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, HarvardI Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, CaltechI Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics andDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University

I collaborators:I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, ColumbiaI David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington UniversityI Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&MI Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, HarvardI Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, CaltechI Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics andDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University

I collaborators:I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, ColumbiaI David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington UniversityI Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&MI Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, HarvardI Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, CaltechI Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics andDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University

I collaborators:I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, ColumbiaI David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington UniversityI Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&MI Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, HarvardI Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, CaltechI Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics andDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University

I collaborators:I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, ColumbiaI David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington UniversityI Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&MI Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, HarvardI Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, CaltechI Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics andDepartment of Political Science, Columbia University

I collaborators:I Joseph Bafumi, Dept. of Political Science, ColumbiaI David Park, Dept. of Political Science, Washington UniversityI Noah Kaplan, Dept. of Political Science, Texas A&MI Gary King, Dept. of Political Science, HarvardI Jonathan Katz, Div. of Social Science, CaltechI Aaron Edlin, Dept. of Economics, UC Berkeley

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I How are pre-election polls conducted?I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

I What is the probability that the election is tied?

I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

I When and why is it rational to vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I How are pre-election polls conducted?I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

I What is the probability that the election is tied?

I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

I When and why is it rational to vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I How are pre-election polls conducted?I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

I What is the probability that the election is tied?

I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

I When and why is it rational to vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I How are pre-election polls conducted?I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

I What is the probability that the election is tied?

I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

I When and why is it rational to vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I How are pre-election polls conducted?I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

I What is the probability that the election is tied?

I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

I When and why is it rational to vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I How are pre-election polls conducted?I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

I What is the probability that the election is tied?

I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

I When and why is it rational to vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I How are pre-election polls conducted?I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

I What is the probability that the election is tied?

I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

I When and why is it rational to vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Polls and Presidential elections

I Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I How are pre-election polls conducted?I How are Presidential elections forecasted?

I Does the Electoral College favor one party or another?

I What is the probability that the election is tied?

I What is the probability that your vote makes a difference?

I When and why is it rational to vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

First topic:Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Presidential polls fluctuate wildly

I But the candidates’ vote shares can be accurately forecast(within a few percentage points) months before the election

I If voters are so fickle, how can they be predicted?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

First topic:Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Presidential polls fluctuate wildly

I But the candidates’ vote shares can be accurately forecast(within a few percentage points) months before the election

I If voters are so fickle, how can they be predicted?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

First topic:Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Presidential polls fluctuate wildly

I But the candidates’ vote shares can be accurately forecast(within a few percentage points) months before the election

I If voters are so fickle, how can they be predicted?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

First topic:Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Presidential polls fluctuate wildly

I But the candidates’ vote shares can be accurately forecast(within a few percentage points) months before the election

I If voters are so fickle, how can they be predicted?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Pre-election polls

I ABC, CBS, Gallup, etc.

I Mostly random-digit-dial surveys (but other countries useface-to-face interviews)

I Response rates below 30%

I Over/undersample by sex, ethnicity, age, education, . . .

I Weighting to adjust to Census

I Can estimate state-level opinion from national polls usingBayesian hierarchical modeling

I Also state polls, academic polls, internet polls, . . .

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Pre-election polls

I ABC, CBS, Gallup, etc.

I Mostly random-digit-dial surveys (but other countries useface-to-face interviews)

I Response rates below 30%

I Over/undersample by sex, ethnicity, age, education, . . .

I Weighting to adjust to Census

I Can estimate state-level opinion from national polls usingBayesian hierarchical modeling

I Also state polls, academic polls, internet polls, . . .

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Pre-election polls

I ABC, CBS, Gallup, etc.

I Mostly random-digit-dial surveys (but other countries useface-to-face interviews)

I Response rates below 30%

I Over/undersample by sex, ethnicity, age, education, . . .

I Weighting to adjust to Census

I Can estimate state-level opinion from national polls usingBayesian hierarchical modeling

I Also state polls, academic polls, internet polls, . . .

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Pre-election polls

I ABC, CBS, Gallup, etc.

I Mostly random-digit-dial surveys (but other countries useface-to-face interviews)

I Response rates below 30%

I Over/undersample by sex, ethnicity, age, education, . . .

I Weighting to adjust to Census

I Can estimate state-level opinion from national polls usingBayesian hierarchical modeling

I Also state polls, academic polls, internet polls, . . .

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Pre-election polls

I ABC, CBS, Gallup, etc.

I Mostly random-digit-dial surveys (but other countries useface-to-face interviews)

I Response rates below 30%

I Over/undersample by sex, ethnicity, age, education, . . .

I Weighting to adjust to Census

I Can estimate state-level opinion from national polls usingBayesian hierarchical modeling

I Also state polls, academic polls, internet polls, . . .

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Pre-election polls

I ABC, CBS, Gallup, etc.

I Mostly random-digit-dial surveys (but other countries useface-to-face interviews)

I Response rates below 30%

I Over/undersample by sex, ethnicity, age, education, . . .

I Weighting to adjust to Census

I Can estimate state-level opinion from national polls usingBayesian hierarchical modeling

I Also state polls, academic polls, internet polls, . . .

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Pre-election polls

I ABC, CBS, Gallup, etc.

I Mostly random-digit-dial surveys (but other countries useface-to-face interviews)

I Response rates below 30%

I Over/undersample by sex, ethnicity, age, education, . . .

I Weighting to adjust to Census

I Can estimate state-level opinion from national polls usingBayesian hierarchical modeling

I Also state polls, academic polls, internet polls, . . .

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Why do we trust the polls?

I A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast

I Polls taken just before the election are usually pretty accurate

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Why do we trust the polls?

I A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast

I Polls taken just before the election are usually pretty accurate

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1992

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1988

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1984

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1980

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1976

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1972

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1968

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1964

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1960

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1956

Days before election

Sup

port

for

Rep

ublic

an c

andi

date

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1952

Republican share of two-party preference in pre-election polls

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Presidential election forecasting

I 4 years ahead, 2 years ahead, 1 year, 4 months, 2 months, 2weeks, . . . election night

I 2 months before election: candidates have been chosen, finalcampaign still to go

I Predict election outcome using polls, national economy,incumbency, candidates’ ideologies, state economic andpolitical trends, home states, home regions

I Fit model using elections since 1948, use to predict currentelection

I Errors at state, regional, national levels

I Can also use this model on election night (Bayesian inference,combine with exit poll and vote data)

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Presidential election forecasting

I 4 years ahead, 2 years ahead, 1 year, 4 months, 2 months, 2weeks, . . . election night

I 2 months before election: candidates have been chosen, finalcampaign still to go

I Predict election outcome using polls, national economy,incumbency, candidates’ ideologies, state economic andpolitical trends, home states, home regions

I Fit model using elections since 1948, use to predict currentelection

I Errors at state, regional, national levels

I Can also use this model on election night (Bayesian inference,combine with exit poll and vote data)

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Presidential election forecasting

I 4 years ahead, 2 years ahead, 1 year, 4 months, 2 months, 2weeks, . . . election night

I 2 months before election: candidates have been chosen, finalcampaign still to go

I Predict election outcome using polls, national economy,incumbency, candidates’ ideologies, state economic andpolitical trends, home states, home regions

I Fit model using elections since 1948, use to predict currentelection

I Errors at state, regional, national levels

I Can also use this model on election night (Bayesian inference,combine with exit poll and vote data)

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Presidential election forecasting

I 4 years ahead, 2 years ahead, 1 year, 4 months, 2 months, 2weeks, . . . election night

I 2 months before election: candidates have been chosen, finalcampaign still to go

I Predict election outcome using polls, national economy,incumbency, candidates’ ideologies, state economic andpolitical trends, home states, home regions

I Fit model using elections since 1948, use to predict currentelection

I Errors at state, regional, national levels

I Can also use this model on election night (Bayesian inference,combine with exit poll and vote data)

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Presidential election forecasting

I 4 years ahead, 2 years ahead, 1 year, 4 months, 2 months, 2weeks, . . . election night

I 2 months before election: candidates have been chosen, finalcampaign still to go

I Predict election outcome using polls, national economy,incumbency, candidates’ ideologies, state economic andpolitical trends, home states, home regions

I Fit model using elections since 1948, use to predict currentelection

I Errors at state, regional, national levels

I Can also use this model on election night (Bayesian inference,combine with exit poll and vote data)

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Presidential election forecasting

I 4 years ahead, 2 years ahead, 1 year, 4 months, 2 months, 2weeks, . . . election night

I 2 months before election: candidates have been chosen, finalcampaign still to go

I Predict election outcome using polls, national economy,incumbency, candidates’ ideologies, state economic andpolitical trends, home states, home regions

I Fit model using elections since 1948, use to predict currentelection

I Errors at state, regional, national levels

I Can also use this model on election night (Bayesian inference,combine with exit poll and vote data)

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Forecast for 2004

I National forecast from Wlezien and Erikson based on pollsand economic indicators: 51.7% (±2.5%) for Bush

I Take relative positions of states from 2000, correct forhome-state effects

I (Better state-level forecasting is possible)

I Add forecasting errors at state, regional, and national levelsI Forecast for each state and entire U.S.

I 66% chance Bush wins FloridaI 75% chance Bush wins majority of U.S. popular voteI U.S. electoral vote: 320 for Bush (probably between 280 and

360), 80% chance Bush wins election

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Forecast for 2004

I National forecast from Wlezien and Erikson based on pollsand economic indicators: 51.7% (±2.5%) for Bush

I Take relative positions of states from 2000, correct forhome-state effects

I (Better state-level forecasting is possible)

I Add forecasting errors at state, regional, and national levelsI Forecast for each state and entire U.S.

I 66% chance Bush wins FloridaI 75% chance Bush wins majority of U.S. popular voteI U.S. electoral vote: 320 for Bush (probably between 280 and

360), 80% chance Bush wins election

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Forecast for 2004

I National forecast from Wlezien and Erikson based on pollsand economic indicators: 51.7% (±2.5%) for Bush

I Take relative positions of states from 2000, correct forhome-state effects

I (Better state-level forecasting is possible)

I Add forecasting errors at state, regional, and national levelsI Forecast for each state and entire U.S.

I 66% chance Bush wins FloridaI 75% chance Bush wins majority of U.S. popular voteI U.S. electoral vote: 320 for Bush (probably between 280 and

360), 80% chance Bush wins election

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Forecast for 2004

I National forecast from Wlezien and Erikson based on pollsand economic indicators: 51.7% (±2.5%) for Bush

I Take relative positions of states from 2000, correct forhome-state effects

I (Better state-level forecasting is possible)

I Add forecasting errors at state, regional, and national levelsI Forecast for each state and entire U.S.

I 66% chance Bush wins FloridaI 75% chance Bush wins majority of U.S. popular voteI U.S. electoral vote: 320 for Bush (probably between 280 and

360), 80% chance Bush wins election

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Forecast for 2004

I National forecast from Wlezien and Erikson based on pollsand economic indicators: 51.7% (±2.5%) for Bush

I Take relative positions of states from 2000, correct forhome-state effects

I (Better state-level forecasting is possible)

I Add forecasting errors at state, regional, and national levelsI Forecast for each state and entire U.S.

I 66% chance Bush wins FloridaI 75% chance Bush wins majority of U.S. popular voteI U.S. electoral vote: 320 for Bush (probably between 280 and

360), 80% chance Bush wins election

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Forecast for 2004

I National forecast from Wlezien and Erikson based on pollsand economic indicators: 51.7% (±2.5%) for Bush

I Take relative positions of states from 2000, correct forhome-state effects

I (Better state-level forecasting is possible)

I Add forecasting errors at state, regional, and national levelsI Forecast for each state and entire U.S.

I 66% chance Bush wins FloridaI 75% chance Bush wins majority of U.S. popular voteI U.S. electoral vote: 320 for Bush (probably between 280 and

360), 80% chance Bush wins election

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Forecast for 2004

I National forecast from Wlezien and Erikson based on pollsand economic indicators: 51.7% (±2.5%) for Bush

I Take relative positions of states from 2000, correct forhome-state effects

I (Better state-level forecasting is possible)

I Add forecasting errors at state, regional, and national levelsI Forecast for each state and entire U.S.

I 66% chance Bush wins FloridaI 75% chance Bush wins majority of U.S. popular voteI U.S. electoral vote: 320 for Bush (probably between 280 and

360), 80% chance Bush wins election

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Forecast for 2004

I National forecast from Wlezien and Erikson based on pollsand economic indicators: 51.7% (±2.5%) for Bush

I Take relative positions of states from 2000, correct forhome-state effects

I (Better state-level forecasting is possible)

I Add forecasting errors at state, regional, and national levelsI Forecast for each state and entire U.S.

I 66% chance Bush wins FloridaI 75% chance Bush wins majority of U.S. popular voteI U.S. electoral vote: 320 for Bush (probably between 280 and

360), 80% chance Bush wins election

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Question wording?I Some surveys ask “If the election were held tomorrow. . . ”I Some surveys ask “Which candidate will you definitely vote

for?”I Different nonresponse rates but no effect on % support for

each candidate

I Undecided voters?I No trends during the campaign

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Question wording?I Some surveys ask “If the election were held tomorrow. . . ”I Some surveys ask “Which candidate will you definitely vote

for?”I Different nonresponse rates but no effect on % support for

each candidate

I Undecided voters?I No trends during the campaign

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Question wording?I Some surveys ask “If the election were held tomorrow. . . ”I Some surveys ask “Which candidate will you definitely vote

for?”I Different nonresponse rates but no effect on % support for

each candidate

I Undecided voters?I No trends during the campaign

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Question wording?I Some surveys ask “If the election were held tomorrow. . . ”I Some surveys ask “Which candidate will you definitely vote

for?”I Different nonresponse rates but no effect on % support for

each candidate

I Undecided voters?I No trends during the campaign

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Question wording?I Some surveys ask “If the election were held tomorrow. . . ”I Some surveys ask “Which candidate will you definitely vote

for?”I Different nonresponse rates but no effect on % support for

each candidate

I Undecided voters?I No trends during the campaign

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so muchwhen votes are so predictable?

I Question wording?I Some surveys ask “If the election were held tomorrow. . . ”I Some surveys ask “Which candidate will you definitely vote

for?”I Different nonresponse rates but no effect on % support for

each candidate

I Undecided voters?I No trends during the campaign

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Uniform partisan swing

I Who’s doing the fluctuating?

I All groups move together

I Even during each Democratic and Republican conventions, allgroups move in the same direction (“uniform swing”)

I Consider a voter polled before the Republican convention:I “Now I plan to vote for Kerry, but in a week I plan to switch

to Bush.”I Voters do not (on average) discount for expected future events!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Uniform partisan swing

I Who’s doing the fluctuating?

I All groups move together

I Even during each Democratic and Republican conventions, allgroups move in the same direction (“uniform swing”)

I Consider a voter polled before the Republican convention:I “Now I plan to vote for Kerry, but in a week I plan to switch

to Bush.”I Voters do not (on average) discount for expected future events!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Uniform partisan swing

I Who’s doing the fluctuating?

I All groups move together

I Even during each Democratic and Republican conventions, allgroups move in the same direction (“uniform swing”)

I Consider a voter polled before the Republican convention:I “Now I plan to vote for Kerry, but in a week I plan to switch

to Bush.”I Voters do not (on average) discount for expected future events!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Uniform partisan swing

I Who’s doing the fluctuating?

I All groups move together

I Even during each Democratic and Republican conventions, allgroups move in the same direction (“uniform swing”)

I Consider a voter polled before the Republican convention:I “Now I plan to vote for Kerry, but in a week I plan to switch

to Bush.”I Voters do not (on average) discount for expected future events!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Uniform partisan swing

I Who’s doing the fluctuating?

I All groups move together

I Even during each Democratic and Republican conventions, allgroups move in the same direction (“uniform swing”)

I Consider a voter polled before the Republican convention:I “Now I plan to vote for Kerry, but in a week I plan to switch

to Bush.”I Voters do not (on average) discount for expected future events!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Uniform partisan swing

I Who’s doing the fluctuating?

I All groups move together

I Even during each Democratic and Republican conventions, allgroups move in the same direction (“uniform swing”)

I Consider a voter polled before the Republican convention:I “Now I plan to vote for Kerry, but in a week I plan to switch

to Bush.”I Voters do not (on average) discount for expected future events!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Days before election

Bus

h su

ppor

t

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Party

Rep

Dem

Ind

Days before election

Bus

h su

ppor

t

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Ideology

cons

lib

mod

Days before election

Bus

h su

ppor

t

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Race

white

non-wh

Days before election

Bus

h su

ppor

t

-200 -150 -100 -50 00.

00.

20.

40.

60.

81.

0

Region

EMW

SW

Days before election

Bus

h su

ppor

t

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Sex

MF

Days before election

Bus

h su

ppor

t

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Income

lowmid-lomid-hihigh

Days before election

Bus

h su

ppor

t

-200 -150 -100 -50 0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Education

lowhigh

Presidential Support by Group

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

d

d

d

d

d

dd

d

R

R

RR

R

R

R

R

Republican supportbefore the convention

Rep

ublic

an s

uppo

rtaf

ter

the

conv

entio

n

Changes in Presidential campaign polls duringDemocratic and Republican conventions, 1964-1992

(conventions in 1988 circled)

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Moving toward a predictable outcome

I You can predict a voter’s preference given “demographics”:sex, ethnicity, age, education, political ideology, partyidentification

I This prediction improves as the campaign goes onI Fit model to a series of polls before the 2000 electionI The coefficients for the predictors increaseI The residual error of the model decreases

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Moving toward a predictable outcome

I You can predict a voter’s preference given “demographics”:sex, ethnicity, age, education, political ideology, partyidentification

I This prediction improves as the campaign goes onI Fit model to a series of polls before the 2000 electionI The coefficients for the predictors increaseI The residual error of the model decreases

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Moving toward a predictable outcome

I You can predict a voter’s preference given “demographics”:sex, ethnicity, age, education, political ideology, partyidentification

I This prediction improves as the campaign goes onI Fit model to a series of polls before the 2000 electionI The coefficients for the predictors increaseI The residual error of the model decreases

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Moving toward a predictable outcome

I You can predict a voter’s preference given “demographics”:sex, ethnicity, age, education, political ideology, partyidentification

I This prediction improves as the campaign goes onI Fit model to a series of polls before the 2000 electionI The coefficients for the predictors increaseI The residual error of the model decreases

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Moving toward a predictable outcome

I You can predict a voter’s preference given “demographics”:sex, ethnicity, age, education, political ideology, partyidentification

I This prediction improves as the campaign goes onI Fit model to a series of polls before the 2000 electionI The coefficients for the predictors increaseI The residual error of the model decreases

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Increasing coefficients for fundamental predictors−

4−

20

Black

Days Before Election

Logi

stic

Coe

ffici

ent

200 150 100 50 0

−1.

0−

0.5

0.0

Female

Days Before Election

Logi

stic

Coe

ffici

ent

200 150 100 50 0

−0.

6−

0.2

0.2

0.6

Education

Days Before Election

Logi

stic

Coe

ffici

ent

200 150 100 50 0

−1.

5−

0.5

0.5

Age 30−44

Days Before Election

Logi

stic

Coe

ffici

ent

200 150 100 50 0

−1.

5−

0.5

0.5

1.5

Age 45−64

Days Before Election

Logi

stic

Coe

ffici

ent

200 150 100 50 0

−1.

5−

0.5

0.5

Age 65+

Days Before Election

Logi

stic

Coe

ffici

ent

200 150 100 50 0

−0.

20.

2

Income

Days Before ElectionLo

gist

ic C

oeffi

cien

t

200 150 100 50 0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Party ID

Days Before Election

Logi

stic

Coe

ffici

ent

200 150 100 50 0

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

Ideology

Days Before Election

Logi

stic

Coe

ffici

ent

200 150 100 50 0

−0.

50.

00.

51.

0

South

Days Before Election

Logi

stic

Coe

ffici

ent

200 150 100 50 0

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Decreasing residual error of model of individual vote0.

40.

50.

60.

7

Days Before Election

Dev

ianc

e pe

r O

bser

vatio

n

200 150 100 50 0

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

Increasing predictive power for new data0.

550.

600.

650.

700.

750.

800.

850.

90

Days Before Election

Coe

ffici

ent o

f 199

6 F

unda

men

tals

Pre

dict

ing

2000

Vot

e C

hoic

e

200 150 100 50 0

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

The random-walk and mean-reversion models

I Random-walk model: voters are bounced around by campaignevents, then the election comes

I Mean-reversion model: voters will mostly end up wherepredicted. It just takes them awhile to get there

I Mean-reversion model fits the data better, also explains whypolls vary so much when elections are so predictable

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

The random-walk and mean-reversion models

I Random-walk model: voters are bounced around by campaignevents, then the election comes

I Mean-reversion model: voters will mostly end up wherepredicted. It just takes them awhile to get there

I Mean-reversion model fits the data better, also explains whypolls vary so much when elections are so predictable

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

How are pre-election polls conducted?How are Presidential elections forecasted?Why do Presidential election campaign polls vary so much . . .

The random-walk and mean-reversion models

I Random-walk model: voters are bounced around by campaignevents, then the election comes

I Mean-reversion model: voters will mostly end up wherepredicted. It just takes them awhile to get there

I Mean-reversion model fits the data better, also explains whypolls vary so much when elections are so predictable

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:Does the Electoral College favor one party or the other?

I To find out, use state-by-state forecasts for each election year

I Forecasts are uncertain (probabilistic)

I What is Pr(Democrats win in electoral college), if they receiveX% of the popular vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:Does the Electoral College favor one party or the other?

I To find out, use state-by-state forecasts for each election year

I Forecasts are uncertain (probabilistic)

I What is Pr(Democrats win in electoral college), if they receiveX% of the popular vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:Does the Electoral College favor one party or the other?

I To find out, use state-by-state forecasts for each election year

I Forecasts are uncertain (probabilistic)

I What is Pr(Democrats win in electoral college), if they receiveX% of the popular vote?

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Percentage of the popular vote required for Democrats tohave a given chance of winning the Electoral College

year

Tot

al v

ote

shar

e

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.48

0.50

0.52

5% chance

50% chance

95% chance

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that the Electoral College will be tied?

I Use the state-by-state forecast for 2004I Estimated probability is 0.05 (1 in 200)I Combinatorics is not an issue

I #states is largeI Central Limit Theorem takes over

Electoral votes for Bush

Pro

babi

lity

100 200 300 4000.00

00.

004

0.00

8

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that the Electoral College will be tied?

I Use the state-by-state forecast for 2004I Estimated probability is 0.05 (1 in 200)I Combinatorics is not an issue

I #states is largeI Central Limit Theorem takes over

Electoral votes for Bush

Pro

babi

lity

100 200 300 4000.00

00.

004

0.00

8

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that the Electoral College will be tied?

I Use the state-by-state forecast for 2004I Estimated probability is 0.05 (1 in 200)I Combinatorics is not an issue

I #states is largeI Central Limit Theorem takes over

Electoral votes for Bush

Pro

babi

lity

100 200 300 4000.00

00.

004

0.00

8

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that the Electoral College will be tied?

I Use the state-by-state forecast for 2004I Estimated probability is 0.05 (1 in 200)I Combinatorics is not an issue

I #states is largeI Central Limit Theorem takes over

Electoral votes for Bush

Pro

babi

lity

100 200 300 4000.00

00.

004

0.00

8

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that the Electoral College will be tied?

I Use the state-by-state forecast for 2004I Estimated probability is 0.05 (1 in 200)I Combinatorics is not an issue

I #states is largeI Central Limit Theorem takes over

Electoral votes for Bush

Pro

babi

lity

100 200 300 4000.00

00.

004

0.00

8

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that your vote will be decisive?

I Pr(your state is tied) × Pr(your state’s electoral votes areneeded, given that your state is tied)

I A state with N voters and E electoral votesI approx. Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI approx. Pr(your state’s electoral votes are needed) ∝ EI approx. Pr(your vote is decisive) ∝ E/N

I Higher for small states and states closer to the nationalaverage

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that your vote will be decisive?

I Pr(your state is tied) × Pr(your state’s electoral votes areneeded, given that your state is tied)

I A state with N voters and E electoral votesI approx. Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI approx. Pr(your state’s electoral votes are needed) ∝ EI approx. Pr(your vote is decisive) ∝ E/N

I Higher for small states and states closer to the nationalaverage

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that your vote will be decisive?

I Pr(your state is tied) × Pr(your state’s electoral votes areneeded, given that your state is tied)

I A state with N voters and E electoral votesI approx. Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI approx. Pr(your state’s electoral votes are needed) ∝ EI approx. Pr(your vote is decisive) ∝ E/N

I Higher for small states and states closer to the nationalaverage

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that your vote will be decisive?

I Pr(your state is tied) × Pr(your state’s electoral votes areneeded, given that your state is tied)

I A state with N voters and E electoral votesI approx. Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI approx. Pr(your state’s electoral votes are needed) ∝ EI approx. Pr(your vote is decisive) ∝ E/N

I Higher for small states and states closer to the nationalaverage

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that your vote will be decisive?

I Pr(your state is tied) × Pr(your state’s electoral votes areneeded, given that your state is tied)

I A state with N voters and E electoral votesI approx. Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI approx. Pr(your state’s electoral votes are needed) ∝ EI approx. Pr(your vote is decisive) ∝ E/N

I Higher for small states and states closer to the nationalaverage

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Next topic:What is the chance that your vote will be decisive?

I Pr(your state is tied) × Pr(your state’s electoral votes areneeded, given that your state is tied)

I A state with N voters and E electoral votesI approx. Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI approx. Pr(your state’s electoral votes are needed) ∝ EI approx. Pr(your vote is decisive) ∝ E/N

I Higher for small states and states closer to the nationalaverage

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

What is the chance that your vote will be decisive?

Number of electoral votes for the state

Pr

(indi

vidu

al v

oter

is d

ecis

ive)

0 10 20 30 40 50

04*

10^-

810

^-7

ALAK

AZAR

CA

CO

CT

DC

DE

FL

GAHI

ID

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MIMN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NVNH

NJ

NM

NY

NCND

OH

OK

OR

PA

RI

SC

SD

TN

TXUT

VT

VAWA

WV

WI

WY

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

A mathematical digression

I We said Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI Simple “binomial model” of random votes

I Mean proportion of votes for Democrat is 0.5, sd is 0.5/√

NI Pr(tie) ∝ 1/

√N

I Binomial model implies that elections in large states are muchcloser than in small states

I Binomial model does not fit actual election data!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

A mathematical digression

I We said Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI Simple “binomial model” of random votes

I Mean proportion of votes for Democrat is 0.5, sd is 0.5/√

NI Pr(tie) ∝ 1/

√N

I Binomial model implies that elections in large states are muchcloser than in small states

I Binomial model does not fit actual election data!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

A mathematical digression

I We said Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI Simple “binomial model” of random votes

I Mean proportion of votes for Democrat is 0.5, sd is 0.5/√

NI Pr(tie) ∝ 1/

√N

I Binomial model implies that elections in large states are muchcloser than in small states

I Binomial model does not fit actual election data!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

A mathematical digression

I We said Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI Simple “binomial model” of random votes

I Mean proportion of votes for Democrat is 0.5, sd is 0.5/√

NI Pr(tie) ∝ 1/

√N

I Binomial model implies that elections in large states are muchcloser than in small states

I Binomial model does not fit actual election data!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

A mathematical digression

I We said Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI Simple “binomial model” of random votes

I Mean proportion of votes for Democrat is 0.5, sd is 0.5/√

NI Pr(tie) ∝ 1/

√N

I Binomial model implies that elections in large states are muchcloser than in small states

I Binomial model does not fit actual election data!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

A mathematical digression

I We said Pr(your state is tied) ∝ 1/NI Simple “binomial model” of random votes

I Mean proportion of votes for Democrat is 0.5, sd is 0.5/√

NI Pr(tie) ∝ 1/

√N

I Binomial model implies that elections in large states are muchcloser than in small states

I Binomial model does not fit actual election data!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Historical Pres. elections by state: vote margins vs. N

Total vote for the two leading candidates

Pro

port

iona

l vot

e di

ffere

ntia

l

0 2*10^6 6*10^6 10^7

0.0

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alpha = -0.16lowess fit

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Tie in the electoral voteTie in the popular vote

Other electoral systems: vote margins vs. N

Total vote for the two leading candidates

Pro

port

iona

l vot

e di

ffere

ntia

l

0 20000 60000 100000

0.0

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alpha = 0.06

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Pro

port

iona

l vot

e di

ffere

ntia

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alpha = -0.5

alpha = -0.11lowess fit

U.S. Congressional elections

Total vote for the two leading candidates

Pro

port

iona

l vot

e di

ffere

ntia

l

0 4*10^6 8*10^6 1.2*10^7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

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.

.

alpha = -0.5

alpha = -0.23lowess fit

U.S. Senate elections

Total vote for the two leading candidates

Pro

port

iona

l vot

e di

ffere

ntia

l

0 4*10^6 8*10^6 1.4*10^7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

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. ..

. .

.

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.

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.

.

.

alpha = -0.5

alpha = -0.01

lowess fit

U.S. statewide offices

Total vote for the two leading candidates

Pro

port

iona

l vot

e di

ffere

ntia

l0 10^7 3*10^7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

....

.....

..

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..

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alpha = -0.5

alpha = -0.07

lowess fit

European national elections

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:When and why is it rational to vote?

I The probability of your vote being decisive is about 1 in 10million, so why vote?

I Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − cI ∆U = utility from votingI p = probability that your vote changes the election outcomeI B = your benefit from your preferred candidate winningI c = net cost of voting

I Suppose p = 10−7 and B = $1000. Then pB = 1/100 of acent!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:When and why is it rational to vote?

I The probability of your vote being decisive is about 1 in 10million, so why vote?

I Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − cI ∆U = utility from votingI p = probability that your vote changes the election outcomeI B = your benefit from your preferred candidate winningI c = net cost of voting

I Suppose p = 10−7 and B = $1000. Then pB = 1/100 of acent!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:When and why is it rational to vote?

I The probability of your vote being decisive is about 1 in 10million, so why vote?

I Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − cI ∆U = utility from votingI p = probability that your vote changes the election outcomeI B = your benefit from your preferred candidate winningI c = net cost of voting

I Suppose p = 10−7 and B = $1000. Then pB = 1/100 of acent!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:When and why is it rational to vote?

I The probability of your vote being decisive is about 1 in 10million, so why vote?

I Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − cI ∆U = utility from votingI p = probability that your vote changes the election outcomeI B = your benefit from your preferred candidate winningI c = net cost of voting

I Suppose p = 10−7 and B = $1000. Then pB = 1/100 of acent!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:When and why is it rational to vote?

I The probability of your vote being decisive is about 1 in 10million, so why vote?

I Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − cI ∆U = utility from votingI p = probability that your vote changes the election outcomeI B = your benefit from your preferred candidate winningI c = net cost of voting

I Suppose p = 10−7 and B = $1000. Then pB = 1/100 of acent!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:When and why is it rational to vote?

I The probability of your vote being decisive is about 1 in 10million, so why vote?

I Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − cI ∆U = utility from votingI p = probability that your vote changes the election outcomeI B = your benefit from your preferred candidate winningI c = net cost of voting

I Suppose p = 10−7 and B = $1000. Then pB = 1/100 of acent!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Next topic:When and why is it rational to vote?

I The probability of your vote being decisive is about 1 in 10million, so why vote?

I Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − cI ∆U = utility from votingI p = probability that your vote changes the election outcomeI B = your benefit from your preferred candidate winningI c = net cost of voting

I Suppose p = 10−7 and B = $1000. Then pB = 1/100 of acent!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: typical explanations

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I Maybe p is overestimated

I But even if p = 10−3, the product pB is only $1!

I Maybe the net “cost” c is negativeI Voting is fun!I Or a “civic duty”: you feel bad if you didn’t voteI But then you have no motivation to increase the chance that

your candidate will win!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: typical explanations

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I Maybe p is overestimated

I But even if p = 10−3, the product pB is only $1!

I Maybe the net “cost” c is negativeI Voting is fun!I Or a “civic duty”: you feel bad if you didn’t voteI But then you have no motivation to increase the chance that

your candidate will win!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: typical explanations

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I Maybe p is overestimated

I But even if p = 10−3, the product pB is only $1!

I Maybe the net “cost” c is negativeI Voting is fun!I Or a “civic duty”: you feel bad if you didn’t voteI But then you have no motivation to increase the chance that

your candidate will win!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: typical explanations

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I Maybe p is overestimated

I But even if p = 10−3, the product pB is only $1!

I Maybe the net “cost” c is negativeI Voting is fun!I Or a “civic duty”: you feel bad if you didn’t voteI But then you have no motivation to increase the chance that

your candidate will win!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: typical explanations

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I Maybe p is overestimated

I But even if p = 10−3, the product pB is only $1!

I Maybe the net “cost” c is negativeI Voting is fun!I Or a “civic duty”: you feel bad if you didn’t voteI But then you have no motivation to increase the chance that

your candidate will win!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: typical explanations

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I Maybe p is overestimated

I But even if p = 10−3, the product pB is only $1!

I Maybe the net “cost” c is negativeI Voting is fun!I Or a “civic duty”: you feel bad if you didn’t voteI But then you have no motivation to increase the chance that

your candidate will win!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: typical explanations

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I Maybe p is overestimated

I But even if p = 10−3, the product pB is only $1!

I Maybe the net “cost” c is negativeI Voting is fun!I Or a “civic duty”: you feel bad if you didn’t voteI But then you have no motivation to increase the chance that

your candidate will win!

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: our explanation

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I B = Bself + αNBsoc

I Bself = individual benefit of your candidate winningI Bsoc = your view of the average social benefit of your

candidate winningI α < 1 implying that you care less about other people than

yourselfI α > 0 implying that you are not completely selfish

I Now B is proportional to N, and so it can be rational to actso as to improve your candidate’s chance of winning

I Feedback keeps voter turnout stable: if turnout declines, thenp increases, and it becomes more compelling to vote

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: our explanation

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I B = Bself + αNBsoc

I Bself = individual benefit of your candidate winningI Bsoc = your view of the average social benefit of your

candidate winningI α < 1 implying that you care less about other people than

yourselfI α > 0 implying that you are not completely selfish

I Now B is proportional to N, and so it can be rational to actso as to improve your candidate’s chance of winning

I Feedback keeps voter turnout stable: if turnout declines, thenp increases, and it becomes more compelling to vote

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: our explanation

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I B = Bself + αNBsoc

I Bself = individual benefit of your candidate winningI Bsoc = your view of the average social benefit of your

candidate winningI α < 1 implying that you care less about other people than

yourselfI α > 0 implying that you are not completely selfish

I Now B is proportional to N, and so it can be rational to actso as to improve your candidate’s chance of winning

I Feedback keeps voter turnout stable: if turnout declines, thenp increases, and it becomes more compelling to vote

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: our explanation

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I B = Bself + αNBsoc

I Bself = individual benefit of your candidate winningI Bsoc = your view of the average social benefit of your

candidate winningI α < 1 implying that you care less about other people than

yourselfI α > 0 implying that you are not completely selfish

I Now B is proportional to N, and so it can be rational to actso as to improve your candidate’s chance of winning

I Feedback keeps voter turnout stable: if turnout declines, thenp increases, and it becomes more compelling to vote

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: our explanation

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I B = Bself + αNBsoc

I Bself = individual benefit of your candidate winningI Bsoc = your view of the average social benefit of your

candidate winningI α < 1 implying that you care less about other people than

yourselfI α > 0 implying that you are not completely selfish

I Now B is proportional to N, and so it can be rational to actso as to improve your candidate’s chance of winning

I Feedback keeps voter turnout stable: if turnout declines, thenp increases, and it becomes more compelling to vote

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: our explanation

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I B = Bself + αNBsoc

I Bself = individual benefit of your candidate winningI Bsoc = your view of the average social benefit of your

candidate winningI α < 1 implying that you care less about other people than

yourselfI α > 0 implying that you are not completely selfish

I Now B is proportional to N, and so it can be rational to actso as to improve your candidate’s chance of winning

I Feedback keeps voter turnout stable: if turnout declines, thenp increases, and it becomes more compelling to vote

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Rationality and voting: our explanation

I (Utility calculation: ∆U = pB − c)I B = Bself + αNBsoc

I Bself = individual benefit of your candidate winningI Bsoc = your view of the average social benefit of your

candidate winningI α < 1 implying that you care less about other people than

yourselfI α > 0 implying that you are not completely selfish

I Now B is proportional to N, and so it can be rational to actso as to improve your candidate’s chance of winning

I Feedback keeps voter turnout stable: if turnout declines, thenp increases, and it becomes more compelling to vote

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Summary

I Short-term political tactics aren’t so important—even if thepolls jump around

I Elections are predictable given fundamental variables andcampaign resources

I The Electoral College does not favor either party

I The Electoral College favors voters in small states (so doesthe U.S. Senate!)

I National opinion moves in synch

I Pr(your vote is decisive) ≈ 10−7

I But voting is rational if you think your guy can make thecountry a better place!

I The rational reason for voting is altruistic

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Summary

I Short-term political tactics aren’t so important—even if thepolls jump around

I Elections are predictable given fundamental variables andcampaign resources

I The Electoral College does not favor either party

I The Electoral College favors voters in small states (so doesthe U.S. Senate!)

I National opinion moves in synch

I Pr(your vote is decisive) ≈ 10−7

I But voting is rational if you think your guy can make thecountry a better place!

I The rational reason for voting is altruistic

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Summary

I Short-term political tactics aren’t so important—even if thepolls jump around

I Elections are predictable given fundamental variables andcampaign resources

I The Electoral College does not favor either party

I The Electoral College favors voters in small states (so doesthe U.S. Senate!)

I National opinion moves in synch

I Pr(your vote is decisive) ≈ 10−7

I But voting is rational if you think your guy can make thecountry a better place!

I The rational reason for voting is altruistic

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Summary

I Short-term political tactics aren’t so important—even if thepolls jump around

I Elections are predictable given fundamental variables andcampaign resources

I The Electoral College does not favor either party

I The Electoral College favors voters in small states (so doesthe U.S. Senate!)

I National opinion moves in synch

I Pr(your vote is decisive) ≈ 10−7

I But voting is rational if you think your guy can make thecountry a better place!

I The rational reason for voting is altruistic

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Summary

I Short-term political tactics aren’t so important—even if thepolls jump around

I Elections are predictable given fundamental variables andcampaign resources

I The Electoral College does not favor either party

I The Electoral College favors voters in small states (so doesthe U.S. Senate!)

I National opinion moves in synch

I Pr(your vote is decisive) ≈ 10−7

I But voting is rational if you think your guy can make thecountry a better place!

I The rational reason for voting is altruistic

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Summary

I Short-term political tactics aren’t so important—even if thepolls jump around

I Elections are predictable given fundamental variables andcampaign resources

I The Electoral College does not favor either party

I The Electoral College favors voters in small states (so doesthe U.S. Senate!)

I National opinion moves in synch

I Pr(your vote is decisive) ≈ 10−7

I But voting is rational if you think your guy can make thecountry a better place!

I The rational reason for voting is altruistic

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Summary

I Short-term political tactics aren’t so important—even if thepolls jump around

I Elections are predictable given fundamental variables andcampaign resources

I The Electoral College does not favor either party

I The Electoral College favors voters in small states (so doesthe U.S. Senate!)

I National opinion moves in synch

I Pr(your vote is decisive) ≈ 10−7

I But voting is rational if you think your guy can make thecountry a better place!

I The rational reason for voting is altruistic

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections

Pre-election polls and forecastingPartisan bias in the electoral college?

Probability the election is tiedWhen and why is it rational to vote?

Summary

I Short-term political tactics aren’t so important—even if thepolls jump around

I Elections are predictable given fundamental variables andcampaign resources

I The Electoral College does not favor either party

I The Electoral College favors voters in small states (so doesthe U.S. Senate!)

I National opinion moves in synch

I Pr(your vote is decisive) ≈ 10−7

I But voting is rational if you think your guy can make thecountry a better place!

I The rational reason for voting is altruistic

Andrew Gelman Polls and Presidential Elections