Protein self sufficiency of livestock: sustainability first · Protein self-sufficiency on PRP : France is a model pupil in the EU Fluctuations are due to : Regulations Nutrition

Protein self sufficiency of livestock: sustainability first

Insectinov 2 - Adebiotech / AgroParisTech

Patricia LE CADRE - CEREOPA

Summary

Self-sufficiency = demand vs resources

Protein self sufficiency : which proteins are

we talking about ?

What are the levers to increase the protein

self sufficiency of monogastrics ?

2 Patricia Le Cadre- Céréopa -Insectinov 2 - Adebiotech / AgroParisTech


Resources Demand

To speak of the protein self

sufficiency of livestock

production, it is necessary to

know not only the supply but

more importantly the

demand (quantity and

quality)


Demand for animal proteins expected to rise but many uncertainties

DEMAND

Food transitions

Purchasing power

(emerging classes)

Démographics (+/- 2 Bn 2050)

Demographics : vast uncertainties

even with quite orthodox scenarios.

Purchasing power : how big are

really the emerging classes ; for

10 years, world GDP growth has

been slowing down ; inequalities

are growing in rich countries.

Food transitions : meat

consumption increase in developing

countries, in developed countries

upper classes tend to reduce their

meat consumption.


Evolution of global demand for animal products

Source : Rabobank, FAO, OECD, FAPRI

X 1,000 tonnes

Poultry and seafood shoulder-to-shoulder in terms of consumption in 2030

(two animal products consuming concentrated proteins)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Seafood Eggs Sheepmeat Poultry Pork Beef

+39%

+35%

+20%

+19%

+17%

Change : 30/10

Seafood : +25%

Eggs : +48%

Poultry : +60%

Pork : +42%

Beef : +25%


Global trade of animal products expected to continue to grow

Increasing exports of livestock and fish products


75% of the population in cities in 2050 and megapoles that will be port cities. What about local supply?

Source : le dessous des cartes. ARTE The world’s largest cities :

more and more port cities


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Milli

ons H

ab

2015 (UN) 2050 (Global City Institute)

A demand for animal proteins that will lead to different production models… not to oppose

Feeding those who are hungry

Several production

models

Feeding those who have the choice

DEMAND

Food transitions

Buying power

(middle, emerging classes)

Demography (+/- 2 Bn

2050)

Segmentation


Climate

Geopolitics

Resources parameters

Finance

Arable lands

Energy

An uneven distribution on earth

An increase of world trade

Water

Techniques and science


What quantity produced and

traded ? And what share of cereals

compared to oilseeds?

What yields ?

How many

acres ? Climate

Geopolitics

Resources subject to volatility

Finance

Volatility

Energy

An uneven distribution on earth

An increase of world trade

Water Arable lands

Techniques and science


Techniques and technologies improuvement

Source : Paysan Breton, 14 décembre 2016 Source : La moisson, representation allégorique du mois

de juillet, manuscrit du 14ème sciècle

In 14th century, one farmer could bearly cultivate

1 hectare and produce 1 tonne of grains on it.

Yield was very connected with drought and

diseases.

In most advanced countries, 1% to 2 % of people

fed the entire population.

The population has been multiplicated by 3.


Energy : a major component of agricultural performance – which price is unpredictable

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07

Base

100

- 1

971

Time

Agricultural energy consumption - France

+ 70%

Maybe we should

stop trying to

predict energy

prices…

Real price

Energy prices depend on the balance

between supply and demand over the very

short term.

Agriculture is a sector depending on energy

mainly for tractors and fertilizer production.

Source : Olivier Rech, Carbone 4, 2011 Source : Ministère du développement durable français, données retraitées par le Céréopa, 2011


Despite uncertainties, world needs in animal and vegetal proteins should increase

World population growth

(high-inertia variable)

Food transitions associated sometimes with more meat

consumption, sometimes not

Yield increase

Crop land availability

Geopolitics

DEMAND (quantity) - DEMAND (quality) - SUPPLY

3 major determinants of the balance between supply and demand

Uncertainties remain

UN 2050 scenarios = +/- 2 Bn people.

This gap makes a great difference in the strategies to adopt

economic growth (emerging classes)

speed of climat change

Geopolitics on energy and food

Climate change

Energy price and availability, biotechnology

Trade (strategic independency, green weapon, currency’s exchange rate)


Protein prospective 2030

World protein demand (Mt) in 4 scenarios

Mill

ion

tons

of

pro

tein

s FOOD ONLY


Rising demand

for animal

proteins in food

Protein prospective 2030

World protein demand trends in 4 scenarios

FOOD AND FEED

Mill

ions

tonnes

of

pro

tein

FOOD ONLY

15

Whatever the

scenario, the multiplier

effects of human

demography and

animal transformation

will lead to increased

needs in vegetable

proteins

Patricia Le Cadre- Céréopa -Insectinov 2 - Adebiotech / AgroParisTech

Rising demand for vegetable

proteins in food and feed

In 2030, a meat

demand limited by high

prices because of a

lack of oilseed meals ?

446

388

At a world scale, negative balance of 15% in oilseed meals by 2030 ?

Demand and supply in oilseed meals

Millio

ns o

f to

nne

s

A pessimistic outlook ?

Agrofuel production increases in China,

Brazil (DDGS)

We maybe will have others sources of

proteins (algae, insect meal, etc. )

Demand

Supply


Summary



we talking about ?




Ruminants…and the others : Very different protein supply and demand


(Source: Alltech 2017) TOP FEED INGREDIENTS*

CEREALS : Corn (76% preference), Wheat (21%), barley (1%), mix corn/barley (1%)

PROTEINS : Soybeanmeal (96% preference), Sunflower (1%), rapeseed/canola (1%)

(*2016 Alletch global feed survey results)

Overall increase in industrial feed production in China and other emerging countries


Proteins of crop origin : demand is connected with the kind of animal production


Commercial

feed

A country’s protein self-sufficiency relies on several factors

Interior demand in animal and vegetal products : quantity et quality (specifications)

Interior supply in cereals and oil-protein rich plants (depending on soil and climate context,

subsidies, regulations)

Forrage availability (meadows, silage)

Share of ruminants vs monogatrics

Expertise level in animal feeding

Comparative prices between raw materials

Agricultural and energy policies,international trade regulations (sanitary rules, tariff barriers)

Etc.


Protein Self sufficiency for the EU in 2015/16

(excluding forages) – Source European Commission

91% 93%

100%

80%

38%

5%

87%

48%

88%91%

61%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

protein self sufficiency by feedstuff 15/16source European Commission


France is a net protein exporter (about 2M tons) but is a net PRP* importer.

+3,5 Mt

-1,5 Mt

+2 Mt

Net protein exporter


0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

MAIZE FORAGE

SORGHO FORAGE

RAY GRASS FORAGE

ALFALFA FORAGE

TREFOIL FORAGE

GRAIN MAIZE

BEET PULP PELLETS

COMMON WHEAT

LENTILS

SUNFLOWER BEANS

DESHYDRATED ALFALFA PELLETS

WHEAT FEED (STARCH)

RAPE SEED

FIELD PEAS

WHEAT BRAN

CGF

BROAD BEANS

DDGS

RAPESEED MEAL

WHEAT FEED (ETHANOL)

LUPINE

SOYBEAN

SUNFLOWER MEAL HP

SOYMEAL

WHEAT GLUTEN

% protéins (dry matter)

>15% = Protein-rich plants

(PRP)

Proteins of crop origin : not only soybean


Protein self-sufficiency on PRP : France is a model pupil in the EU

Fluctuations are due to :

Regulations

Nutrition science

Breeder practices

Gap between France

and EU decreases


Self sufficiency rate is fluctuating…

French protein self-sufficiency on PRP : far above the European average

48%

8% 11%

33%

70%

6% 5%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

forages feedstuffs farmpurchases

on-farm use feed industry

method of supplying livestock

UE 28 2016 (source FEFAC) France 2015 (source CdFrance-Snia)


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

UK France Deutschland Netherlands Spain

Level of soymeal consumption in several EU countries

% soja feed % poultry Cfeed

France : a

diversity of

meals

A real french performance concerning soy consumption

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

UK France Deutschland Netherlands Spain

Oilm

ea

ls u

se

(1

00

0 T

)

Oilmeals use (Farm+compound feed) (source Oil World 2016)

Soybeanmeal rapeseedmeal sunflowermeal

Oilmeals use (Farm + compound feed)

Source : Oilworld, 2016

Level of soymeal consumption in several EU countries

Reasons for low french

soymeal consumption :

High availability in

cereals and

rapeseeds

Price gap between

wheat and soy is

more attractive in

France than in the

rest of the EU.


France : a low

consumption

regarding poultry

feed production

Deutchland and Spain produce

more cattle feed but above all

more pork feed

Pool of available proteins is much wider than PRP

28

blé13% maïs

9%

autres céréales

4%

coproduits

céréales9%

autres

9%

tourteaux soja

29%

tourteaux colza17%

tourteaux tournesol

9%

déshydratés1%

Part des MP dans la couverture de la MAT 2015

Soymeal

29%

FRANCE : contributions of RM at protein supply in industrial feed

2015

Grains and

their by-

products

35%


Summary



we talking about ?




A lot of advantages…

But…

Soymeal remains an inescapable raw material

66% of world supply in oilseeds (vs sunflowerseeds 7% and rapeseeds11%)

An especialy well designed protein (well balanced in amino-acids)

A quality / price balance which remains attractive

A volatility which is not really higher than other meals

Low fertilizer requierments (legume)

The decline in imports is not the guarantee of an improvement in protein autonomy (Black Sea sunflower meal, canola gmo)

Two drawbacks : deforestation (cerrados Brazil) and GMO

Asia and Africa are purchasing more and more soybeans (China market share in

soymeal equivalent has increased from 10% to 39% in 15 years while the share of UE was

falling from 39% to 19%)

An upward trend in the soymeal/wheat ratio

0,6

1,1

1,6

2,1

2,6

3,1

3,6

Ratio soja/blé fourrager (France) Soja price divided by wheat price - France

Soybean made in France (interprofessional project, objective : increase cropland from 140

000 ha to 250 000 hectare in 8 years, remplacing 0,5Mt imports non gmo soyameal, )

Danube soya and Europe soya : OGM free, two standards certified in order to meet half of the demand.

30

25

%

25

%

23

% 24

%

25

% 28

%

26

%

26

%

O R G E B L É M A Ï S M O Y E N N E C É R É A L E S

T T T O U R N E S O L

T T C O L Z A T T S O J A M O Y E N N E 3 T T

VOLATILITÉ* DES PR IX DES M P (€ /T) SUR LE M A R CHÉ F R ANÇAIS SUR LA PÉR IODE 2 0 05-20 15

Several raw material prices volatility – France – 05/15


Rapeseed meal : increase protein rate

Feed industrials are ready to pay for an increase of the protein level (1 point CP = +7/8 $/t)

Make protein level higher leads to savings. Protein self sufficiency increase by 0,45 pourcentage point when CP level grows by 1% - context 15/16

But a production of rapeseed in UE linked to a political demand (biofuels) called into question (clean energy package)

96,50

97,00

97,50

98,00

98,50

99,00

99,50

100,00

100,50

101,00

57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

66%

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46

Evol

utio

n co

ut M

P FA

B ba

se 1

00 à

MAT

33

Auto

nom

ie p

roté

ique

Impact financier et évolution de l'autonomie protéique liés à l'écoulement du volume de tourteaux de colza 15/16 (1,4 Mt constant)

par ajustement du prix

Autonomie protéique Coût MP

Raw material cost for feed industry and protein self

sufficiency depending on rapeseed meal protein rate.

Rapeseed meal price variation depending on its protein

rate


What is the ranking of limiting AA in feed formulation ? Example with broiler feed

Amino acids can reduce CP needs level.

32

Valine is the 4th limiting AA

after Met, Lys and Thr

Arginine and Ile (or Trp) are

colimiting after Val

L-Valine allows a dietary CP

reduction in broiler feeds of

0.6 to 0.9 points of CP

(depending on the cereal

used)

What is the ranking of limiting AA in feed formulation ? Example broiler feed


What is the ranking of limiting AA in feed formulation ? Example with broiler feed

Processed Animal protein for feed : Do insect meals suit monogastrics ?

100

12

6

3

1,4

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

soybean meal

rape meal

sunflowermeal

fish meal

insect* meal

PROTEINS (millions de tonnes)

Global production of protéins (Mt) 2016

2025 Céréopa estimations

* 55% protéins

Advantages

A lot of fundraising for start-ups everywhere in the world

A very interesting digestibility and amino-acid profile

Drawbacks

Meat meals forbidden in the EU since 2000

(but very often used in Brasil and Asia)

Regulatory restrictions for insect meal (sanitary, animal welfare) in the EU

stronger than in the other regions

Authorization since july 2017 for fish breeding

Sustainability that remains to be demonstrated (energy, input)

A very high cost and price level which eliminates farm animal from the market

A very high cost level which require added value opportunities (petfoods,

cosmetics, biodiesel) business model to find

A resource which will remain limited at the world scale.


2,32,8 3,3 3,4

9,9

1,40,72,1 2,6 2,3

0,9

3

L A I T P O U L E T P O R C Œ U FS V I A N D E B O V I N E

V I A N D E B O V I N E

FE E D L O T

I N SE CT E S

G P

RO

TÉ

INE

S V

ÉG

ÉT

ALE

S/G

PR

OT

EIN

ES

AN

IMA

LES

EFF I CI ENCE CONVERSI ON PROTÉI QUE

PV/PA PV consommable par l'homme/PA

Selon Pilorgé pour PV/PA et Wilkinson 2012 PVconsommable homme/PA


A notion of sustainability that evolves

The reasons for continuing to improve our protein independence in the future:

Support local productions and our breeding industries

Improve the sustainability of our livestock productions and their

traceability

Avoid the use of imported soybean and its twofold handicap (GMO

and deforestation), especially in poultry production

Secure our supplies


Thank you for your attention !

Documents

Protein self sufficiency of livestock: sustainability first · Protein self-sufficiency on PRP : France is a model pupil in the EU Fluctuations are due to : Regulations Nutrition