MICHAEL S. TEITELBAUMWERTHEIM FELLOW

HARVARD LAW SCHOOL

MST1900@YAHOO.COM

Prospective career landscape for PhDs and

postdocs

OUTLINE

1. Symptoms of improvement? 2. Symptoms of malaise? The Postdoc as

Canary3. How attractive are careers for PhDs?4. Can more Federal research funding solve?5. What is in prospect for PhD/postdoc

careers?

1. Improvements since 2000 COSEPUP report

Remuneration up, primarily due NIH & NSF actions Earlier NIH guidelines had dragged down But still low for age and level of education

NPA, PDOs, PDAs (declare bias)Spread of individual development plansAgreed definition of a “postdoc” (2007)Interest in postdoc scene from NIH DirectorAlso scientific societies (AAMC, FASEB, ACS,

etc.)

Postdoc definition, agreed by NIH and NSF (2007)

An individual who has received a doctoral degree (or equivalent) and is engaged in a temporary and defined period of mentored advanced training to enhance the professional skills and research independence needed to pursue his or her chosen career path.

Source: http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind08/pdf/c03.pdf

2. Symptoms of malaise?

Reliable & up-to-date data – a lot we don’t know

Science press: prospects poor – Correct? Anecdote?

Questions persist from the aspiring

What prospects for real research career?At what age? Compatible with a “life”?Future research $ for junior investigators?Support for high-risk/high-return research?Proposal success rates? Time proposal-

writing?Does tenure include salary? (med schools) Funding gap risks? Gap funding from

institutions?Is PhD/postdoc right for non-academic career?

The Postdoc as Canary

Apparently grew rapidly over past 15 yearsRough estimate (2005): ~90,000

National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators, 2010

Ca. 50% of total in biomedical = ~ 45,000Substantial increases since then, apparently% domestic PhDs taking postdocs down, esp

womenIncreasing % international postdocs

But our canary sensors are weak…

Numbers of postdocs? DK within factor of 2 (2005)

Unsure how much increase over past several years Number postdocs on campus? Improving

Average postdoc career experience? Don’t know Are postdocs in top labs doing well? Views differ Either way, what about non-top labs?Sigma Xi National Postdoc toral Survey (2003-

4) is still sole national survey effort – embarrassing…

Postdocs in Biomedical, Behavioral, Social, Clinical Sciences, by citizenship and visa status

Postdocs in Biomedical, Behavioral, Social, Clinical Sciences:Primary source of support

3. How attractive are careers for PhDs?

New normal for 5-6 year biomedical PhD cohorts NB: Latest data = 2006 (much change since!)

Tenure-track academic career = minority More in non-tenure-track than in tenure-trackMore in extended postdocs than in tenure-trackGovernment careers pretty constant @ ca. 10%Industry: > tenure-track & non-tenure-track

academic But depends on economic trends, esp pharma and biotech Both appear to have been flat-to-declining recently

“Other” = 10%: data esp. weak, mostly anecdote Financial sector; patent law; out-of-workforce?

Biological Sciences: 5-6 Year Cohort(Stephan, 2011)

Biomedical employment by sector 1975-2006

(US PhDs only; includes postdocs)

Postdoc rough estimate: 89,300 in 2005[Source: National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators,

2010]

22,900 U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents in academe (SDR estimate).

26,600 temporary visasholders in academe (GSS)

13,000 U.S.-educated persons in postdoc positions not covered by GSS (SDR estimate).

26,500 temporary visaholders in positions not covered by GSS (assumes proportion of temporary visa postdocs is same as for those covered by GSS).

Ca. 50% in biomedical = ~ 44,500

Rising % Postdocs are Temporary Visaholders, (Biological Sciences, 1980-2007) [Stephan, 2011]

Why rising % int’l students/postdocs?

~60% postdocs now international? If so, why so? US students have options int’l students don’t

Can go directly into workforce (if there are jobs…) Or can borrow for e.g. medical, law, business schools

“Opportunity costs” lower for int’l studentsMost other countries do not finance many postdocsFederal $ ample for int’l students/postdocs as RA’s

Similar $ not available for law, medicine, business, etc.

US univ’s: high prestige for those returning homePhD/postdoc = visa pathway for int’l students

Effects of NIH Doubling 1998-2003?

Caveat: postdoc data are quite incompleteGrowth in biomed postdocs (16K =>19K in 5

yrs) Most growth in temporary visaholders (8K

=> 11K) mostly foreign PhDs (likely, but not certain)

% temporary visas 60%, up from 50% in 5 yrs

Summary, as of 2008

Prospects for new PhDs & postdocs “bleak” (Stephan, 2011)

Likelihood of tenure-track slot low ~15% biomed?; somewhat higher in other science

fields “Buyers market” for PhDs Universities: financially constrained, risk-averse Decline in tenure-track hiring, hiring freezes, etc. Decline in NIH budget (adjusted for inflation)

Industry hiring: Was increasing (has it reversed since?)

After 2008?

Career data mostly lackingUnlikely to have improved given deep

recession Press reports of industry RIFs common But we really need quantitative evidence…

Need more up-to-date data (“flash data”) Pharma/biotech: has net hiring reversed since 2008? Collate from industry associations (PHARMA, BIO)? Collate from industry publications, newsletters,

websites?

4. More research funding as solution?

More Federal research funding desirableBut can’t resolve career problems –

structuralNatural experiment: NIH doubling14-15% budget growth did improve career

prospects But when rapid growth flattened, “crisis” “Crisis” after 100% budget increase in 5 yrsFundamentally structural

Positive feedback loops => instability

More research $ => more PhDs & postdocs with multiyear lag

Effects have been modeled (math PhDs, 2% increase) Funding pulses make career prospects worse

Biomedical fields: “…inherent problems of a system that relies on

young temporary workers to staff labs – and continues to recruit students despite the difficulties recent graduates experience in finding research jobs…” [Stephan, 2012, p. 71]

Most Fed educ support from research $

Only small % of funds for graduate students and postdocs from “education”/”training” funds

NIH: 22% of graduate students and postdocsNSF: 14% of graduate students, 2% of

postdocsOther Federal science funders (DoD, DoE, etc.)

A guess: even lower percentages from education funds

Implication: research budgets are drivers of graduate student and postdoc numbers

2/3 NIH-supported graduate students on RAs

2/3 postdocs supported by NIH research grants

Other positive feedback loops

More research $ => med school expansionRational response to incentives

Expand faculty to capture expected research grant growth Non-tenure-track limits institutional risk Buyers market enables Risk shifted to researchers Even tenured vulnerable due soft money financing

Expand research facilities financed by grant overheads Fed funding rules incentivize debt financing, leverage Risky for institution if research funding flat

Erratic funding trajectories exacerbate

Biomedical: evolved structure requires rapid growth Need +6%/yr NIH budget for system stability

Prescient Science article by D. Korn, et al. in 2002

Less true for other academic research fieldsBoom-bust, stop-start funding increases

instability Lobbying for “doubling” -- NIH, now NSF, NIST, DOE Congressional view: “take the $ when you can get it”

Major risks fall on younger researchers Careers depend on “when” they complete PhD/postdoc

5. What in prospect for PhD/postdoc careers?

Past S&E forecasts: bad karmaNSF (late ‘80s) forecast S&E workforce

“shortfalls” Congress responded quickly with increased NSF budget Early 90s: Congressional investigation of whether misled

PhD supply/demand in S&E: forecasting failure “Interest in predicting demand and supply for doctoral

scientists and engineers began in the 1950s, and since that time there have been repeated efforts to forecast impending shortages or surpluses… This need, however, has not been met by data based forecasting models, and accurate forecasts have not been produced.” [National Research Council, 2000, p. 1.]

Rely on national occupational projections?

BLS: 10-year projections, based on prior 3 yearsBasis of recent reports by Carnevale et al.

Admirable: BLS assesses past projections BLS assessments of its 1996-2006 projections Missed major effects of oil price and housing bubbles Overall, at macro levels, are better than “naïve” forecasts

“On the whole, the BLS 1996–2006 labor force, occupational employment, and industry employment projections outperformed those of naïve models.”

Better for large industries/occupations, less good for smaller “…BLS was more accurate in projecting changes in the employment of large

industries and occupations than changes in the employment of small industries and occupations. [Wyatt, 2010, p. 66.]

For credible 10-year S&E projections…

How overall US economy will fare over next decade Oil prices, Euro, housing markets, financial system stability

Future R&D “offshoring” (China, India, Singapore) Corporate R&D locational subsidized, mandated

Future R&D “in-shoring” into U.S.? E.g. European, Japanese pharmaceutical firms to Boston?

Future Federal R&D budgets (next decade)? NIH budget? -- the 800-pound gorilla in largest science field DoD, DoE, NASA (defense, aerospace, energy industries)

Healthcare policies (for pharma, biotech workforce)

Academe: state $, endowments, Federal research

Humility re: foresight

Real humility required re: foresight abilityProjections are not forecasts/predictions

Need to re-do projections every 2 years – rapid change

10-year projections: useful for only 2-3 years out?

Need more up-to-date labor market data Comb industry-specific reports, data, publications

pharma, biotech, semiconductors, IT, etc. Up-to-date labor market trends in academic science

My speculations…(not predictions!…)

Constrained Federal $ = instability in AcademeIndustry R&D: unlikely to take up slack Increased stability requires structural changes

But unlikely: strong interests support current structure

Gradual declining US interest in research careers? “Buyers market;” career prospects unpredictable/unstable Males: careers relatively unattractive (for citizens/LPRs) Ditto females, plus conflict with “a life” Caveat: Expect much variation by field, and over time

Ample temporary visas amplify drivers of trends

“Treatments” favoring stability (1)

Attenuate positive feedback between research $ and numbers of funded graduate students and postdocs Shift support from research grants to “education”/“training”

Align PhD/postdoc system with career demand Better data, and need to be MUCH more current Provide accurate career info to prospective students,

postdocs Enable Federal support for Professional Staff Scientists Reconsider growing Federal $ for int’l students/postdocs

Raise success rates for new investigators Some successes from NIH interventions

“Treatments” (2)

Avoid rapid acceleration & deceleration in funding Urge instead sustained increases keyed to GDP growth

Buffer erratic year-to-year Federal funding E.g. “stabilization overhead” to support gap funding

Limit % faculty salaries on grants (Alberts, 2010) Adjust incentives in overhead rules Professional Science Master’s for non-academe

www.sciencemasters.com

Could do far better on data front

Create an “Observatory” to monitor science careers

Ongoing analysis of NSF and NIH dataCollect “flash” data

Current, if preliminary, like inflation & unemployment rates

Flash data, online surveys of key knowledge gaps

Current data to univ’s, funders, students, postdocs

Selected sources

Ian D. Wyatt, “Evaluating the 1996–2006 Employment Projections,” Monthly Labor Review, September 2010, pp. 33-68.

Paula Stephan, How Economics Shapes Science (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2012)

National Research Council, Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 2000).

David Korn, Robert R. Rich, Howard H. Garrison, Sidney H. Golub, Mary J.C. Hendrix, Stephen J. Heinig, Bettie Sue Masters, Richard J. Turman, “The NIH budget in the ‘Postdoubling’ Era,” Science 296, 1401-1402 (2002)

Michael S. Teitelbaum, “Structural Disequilibria in Biomedical Research,” Science 321, 1 August 2008, 644-645.

Bruce Alberts, “Overbuilding Research Capacity,” Science 329, 1257.

MICHAEL S. TEITELBAUMMST1900@YAHOO.COM

THANK YOU!(questions/comments

welcome)

NIH success rates equalizing (but low)

But 42+ years on average

Recent trend reversal (Rockey, 2011)

The Cliff (Rockey, 2011)