Promotion of Modal Shift from Road -based Transport …gec.jp/gec/en/Activities/fs_newmex/2012/2012_jcmbocmfs12_eMRI... · H24 JCM/BOCM FS Final Report (Summary) ＜3 ... FS Title:

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2012 Feasibility Study on Bilateral Offset Credit Mechanism Final Report (Executive Summary)

Promotion of Modal Shift from Road-based Transport to Mass Rapid

Transit (MRT) System

(implemented by Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.)

FS Partners Marubeni Corporation, Transport Development and Strategy Institute (TDSI) of Vietnam, and Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology Professor Tetsuro Hyodo

Location of Project/Activity

Vietnam , Indonesia

Category of Project/Activity

Transport

Description of Project/Activity

Introduction of a mass rapid transit (MRT) system to the three cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) and Jakarta (Indonesia), which heavily rely on road-based transport systems such as motorcycles, automobiles, and buses, in order to reduce GHG emissions from such existing road transport systems through acceleration of the modal shift

Eligibility Criteria

・ A project intended to introduce a mass passenger transport system (e.g., MRT, BRT) A project using or planning to use non-private foreign capital, in part or in whole, for introducing a transport system

Reference Scenario and Project/Activity Boundary

In the reference scenario, existing transport modes continue to be used without MRT being introduced. CO2 emission factor per person-kilometer and travel distance corresponding to access/egress zone are conservatively set to the lower limit of 95% confidence interval, and existing transport modes are assumed to achieve a 1% fuel consumption improvement annually. The boundary covers (a) MRT zone (MRT station to MRT station) and (b) access/egress zones (departure point to MRT station, MRT station to destination).

Calculation Method Options

Two methods are available for calculation: Option CO2emission factor

(Reference scenario) Access/egress zone

(1) Default Default (2) Questionnaire survey after start of

MRT operations Questionnaire survey after start of MRT operations

(1) A simplified option that requires monitoring of only the number of MRT passengers between stations and electricity consumption. Emission reductions are low, compared to option (2). (2) An option used to calculate emission reductions accurately. Although monitoring burden is high due to the implementation of a questionnaire survey, emission reductions are high.

Default Values set in Methodology

The applied default /project-specific values, and the basis for application are shown in the table below.

Default /project

-specific value Parameters Basis for parameter application

Default CO2 emission factor of fuel j

Based on published figures from IPCC Guideline 2006 and other documents

Default Fuel consumption improvement factor

Fuel consumption is determined by a number of factors. The setting of this factor was focused on technical aspects as improvement proceeds rapidly in vehicle technology.

H24 JCM/BOCM FS Final Report (Summary)

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Default CO2 emission factor of grid power

Based on published figures from MONRE (transmission end)

Default Transmission and distribution loss in grid power

Based on World Bank data

Project -specific value

CO2 emission factor of transport modes that could be used by MRT passengers in the absence of MRT

∑ (Travel distance of respondent i / Fuel consumption of transport mode which respondent i will use in the absence of MRT / Number of accompanying persons for respondent i ×CO2 emission factor of fuel type of the transport mode which respondent i will use) / ∑ (Travel distance of respondent i)


Induced ratio for distance category x

Ratio of induced trips to total trips of residents living along MRT lines who will use MRT (total of shifted trips and induced trips)


CO2 emission factor of transport modes used in access/egress zones

∑ Travel distance in access/egress zone of respondent i / Fuel consumption of the transport mode which respondent i will use in access/egress zone / Number of accompanying persons for respondent i ×CO2 emission factor of fuel type of the transport mode which respondent i will use) / ∑ (Travel distance in access/egress zone of respondent i )


Distance between Station m and Station n ［km］

Line plan for MRT Lines 1 and 2


Correction factor for passenger’s travel distance in access/egress zone connecting to section for distance category x in reference scenario

Ratio of virtual access/egress distance to station-to-station distance in daily trips of residents living along MRT lines before shift to MRT


Correction factor for passenger’s travel distance in access/egress zone connecting to section for distance category x in project scenario

Ratio of access/egress distance to station-to-station distance in daily trips of residents living along MRT lines after shift to MRT

Monitoring Method

The following shows the items, methods, and frequencies of monitoring under calculation option (1):

Items Monitoring method Monitoring frequency Number of passengers between Station m and Station n [person/y]

Data recording IC cards Continuous (Totalization: at least one a year) Estimate based on fare revenues and number of passengers using a station

Continuous (Totalization: at least one a year)

Electricity consumption by MRT [MWh/y]

Electricity purchase slip At every issue of purchase slip (Totalization: at least one a year)

In calculation option (2), a questionnaire survey is conducted once a year, in addition to option (1), on MRT passengers after the start of MRT operation with respect to the following matters:

・Whole travel distance from origin to destination in the reference scenario (in the absence of MRT) ・Fuel consumption of transport modes in the reference scenario (in the absence of

MRT) ・Number of accompanying persons using transport modes in the reference scenario (in

the absence of MRT) ・Whole travel distance from origin to destination when MRT is used ・Travel distance in access/egress zones when MRT is used ・Fuel consumption of transport modes in access/egress zones when MRT is used ・Number of accompanying persons using transport modes in access/egress zones

GHG Emissions and

The following shows estimated emission reductions achieved by Hanoi Lines 1 and 2,


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its Reductions Ho Chi Minh Line 1, and Jakarta North-South Line.（unit：tCO2） Option Line Reference emissions Project emissions Emission

reductions Op.1 Hanoi Line 1 92,466 54,199 38,267

Hanoi Line 2 69,434 27,855 41,579 Ho Chi Minh Line 1

144,669 55,990 88,678

Jakarta North-South Line

88,973 68,565 20,408

Method of Verification

In option 1, the verification items are composed of (a) distance between stations (identification of the technique used to obtain the results), (b) number of passengers between stations (reliability verification of IC cards), and (c) electricity consumption by MRT (verification of whether electricity is consumed wastefully). In option 2, it is required, in addition to option 1, to check entered values against those in the original questionnaire form, for the purpose of registering information obtained from individual passengers in the questionnaire survey. Abnormal values contained in the questionnaire survey results, problems with the questionnaire survey technique, and matters that need more attention would be solved if an appropriate methodology is determined. Then, there is no need to formulate specific techniques for each project.

Environmental Impacts

Despite potential risk in this project of smoke and noise from construction work or vibration or any other nuisance from MRT operation, the project will be effective because it will provide such benefits as air pollutant reductions as the result of reduced use of road-based transport systems, in addition to contribution to sustainable development of the host countries.

Financial Plan About 80 percent of the investments in each of the four MRT lines under this project will be financed by ODA yen loans. Fares, a major source of revenues in railway operation, are currently being addressed by JICA as part of its technical cooperation extended to the three Vietnamese project operators.

Promotion of Japanese Technology

Japan has decided to extend ODA yen loans for the MRT lines covered by this project, subject to Terms for Economic Partnership (STEP), under which at least 30% of the loan must be used to purchase equipment and services from Japan. With this, Japanese products based on its advantageous manufacturing technology and operation know-how are expected to be introduced, including railway vehicles, E&M technologies (e.g. signaling, communication, electrification, especially automatic fare collection units).

Sustainable Development in Host Country

Public transport systems are yet to be developed in the three cities, which mostly rely on automobiles. In addition, populations are growing in the cities. For these reasons, MRT will contribute to sustainable development by reducing air pollution and traffic congestion.


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FS Title: Promotion of Modal Shift from Road-based Transport to Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) System FS Entity: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. 1．FS Implementation scheme Marubeni Corporation: mainly investigates into the spread possibility and economic

efficiency of the project and forms coordination among local parties (government agencies, project operators, local consulting firms).

Transport Development and Strategy Institute of Vietnam (TDSI): carries out local surveys in Hanoi under the control of the Vietnamese Ministry of Transport (MOT).

Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology professor Tetsuro Hyodo: provides advice on local surveys, including modal share studies.

2．Overview of Project/activities (1) Description of Project/Activity Contents:

This project is intended to introduce mass rapid transit (MRT) systems into the three cities of Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Jakarta in the two countries, which currently rely on road-based transport systems, such as motorcycles, automobiles, and buses. GHG emissions are expected to be reduced through a modal shift to MRT.

Japan has decided to extend ODA yen loans for four lines on Special Terms for

Economic Partnership (STEP). In accordance with these terms and conditions, much of Japanese technology is expected to be introduced into these countries. In addition, JICA is affording technical cooperation to Vietnam to set up an O&M firm. MRB, the project operator of Hanoi Line 2, was established in 2012 after changing its previous name of HRB as part of its reorganization. Like VNR and MAUR, MRB will formally start discussing the selection of main operators for the project. (2) Situations of Host Country:

Vietnam is being faced with growing traffic volumes in line with its economic development and over-population in big cities. Today, the transport sector accounts for 30% of Vietnam’s total energy consumption and for 60% of total fuel consumption, registering an annual average increase of 10% for the last 10 years. Specifically, road-based transport represents 68% of fuel consumption of the transport sector. In the transport sector, 90% of fuel consumed is composed of gasoline and diesel. In 2010, GHG emissions amounted to 27.8 MtCO2 (estimate by IEEJ and TDSI).

Under these circumstances, the transport sector is becoming a highly significant part of


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Vietnam's climate change policy. The government is strategically seeking to mitigate impacts of climate change and cut GHG emissions. For the former objective, the government evaluates impacts of climate change on the transport sector and compiles an action plan pursuant to MOT's action plan for climate change mitigation (2011-2015), while carrying out studies for obtaining financial support from international donors. For the latter, the national strategy against climate change (adopted in 2011) obligated the compilation of an appropriate transport plan, the development of a public transport system, and the control of increasing private transport in cities.

The development of MRT covered by this study corresponds to the development of a public transport system as addressed in this national strategy.

Also in Indonesia, due to the fast economic growth in recent years and the population rapidly concentrating in urban areas, road-based traffic is surging to cause a significant increase in GHG emissions from the transport sector. The installation of a public transport system is cited among the government's improvement measures. (3) Complementarity of the CDM:

Under the CDM, there are few transport projects due to uncertainty about emission reductions and low emission reductions realized in a single project relative to heavy monitoring burdens. There are only five methodologies suitable for multiple-policy public transport projects, and only 17 projects have been registered so far.

ACM0016 and AM0031 are the two methodologies best suited for our project although only ACM0016 is applicable to MRT. These methodologies require questionnaire surveys on passengers after the start of MRT operation, which causes monitoring burdens and at the same time makes it difficult to make prior prediction of emission reductions. Simpler methods would be needed to encourage new MRT projects. However, this is impossible to realize under the CDM, which seeks to obtain the consent of as many countries as possible and apply to a wide diversity of projects. For this reason, MRT projects should rather be implemented under the JCM/BOCM, which permit flexible determination of default values and eligibility. 3. Study Contents (1) Issues to be Addressed in FS: (a) Questionnaire surveys should be used to determine whether to include in calculation access/egress traffic (between the origin and an MRT station and between an MRT station and the destination). (b) Two calculation procedures for emission reductions will be determined by including or excluding access/egress traffic. If access/egress traffic is not taken into consideration in calculation, a procedure will be discussed for determining travel distances under the reference scenario. (c) A questionnaire survey on residents living along MRT lines and an interview on bus and taxi operators should be conducted to determine the following parameters to be used in calculation of emission reductions: (i) modal shares in the reference scenario, (ii) average fuel consumption for each transport mode, and (iii) an average number of accompanying persons using each transport mode. (d) Emission reductions in the covered lines should be estimated by using the emission reductions calculation methods and proposed default values obtained from the above consideration and surveys. (e) Discussion on MRV methodology elements, including eligibility criteria, should be continued from the previous fiscal year. (f) Efforts should be reinforced to obtain the understanding and cooperation of local MRT operators and relevant organizations concerning JCM/BOCM.


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(g) The applicability of MRV methodology to Ho Chi Minh City and Jakarta should be studied on the basis of the results of surveys in Hanoi, Vietnam. (2) Process to Solve the Issues in FS:

The following is the study results corresponding to the study issues described in (1) above: (a) From the results of a household survey on residents living along MRT lines, we have decided that access/egress traffic should be taken into account under the assumption that MRT has been introduced because access/egress traffic would have considerable impact. (b) Two calculation options were selected, depending on how we can calculate modal share in the reference scenario and the access/egress transport in the project scenario (see the attached "Methodology"). We also considered travel distance in the reference scenario. (c) From a household survey on 5,000 residents living along MRT lines, a taxi survey on 460 taxi drivers, and a bus survey on 10 bus operators, we calculated 1) modal share, 2) average fuel consumption, and 3) average number of accompanying persons (see the survey results below). And we also calculated default and project-specific values based on these data. (d) Emission reductions were estimated using the calculation methods and the local survey results. (e) JICA has already decided to provide ODA yen loans for the MRT lines covered in our study. Based on discussion with JICA, we made a review mainly on eligibility criteria for additionality. In addition, an overall review was made for other aspects of MRV methodologies. (f) A kick-off seminar was held in Hanoi on August 23. On November 9, Japanese parties participated in a committee meeting of Hanoi and the host country to acquaint local parties with our planned project. In addition, a meeting was held with concerned parties on January 23 to exchange opinions concerning the MRV methodology. (g) MRV methodology and default or project specific values are developed mainly for Hanoi. The applicability of MRV methodology to Ho Chi Minh City and Jakarta are studied based on the results, and some issues are extracted.

For the purpose of this study, a local survey by interview was conducted in Hanoi, Vietnam, on residents along the planned MRT lines 1 and 2, taxis drivers, and bus operators. The table below summarizes the findings of the local survey.

Table: Summary of the findings of local survey

Survey title Household survey Taxi survey Bus survey

Purpose

・ Identify transport modes used before introduction of MRT (modal share)

・ Identify motorcycles, automobile fuel consumption, and average number of passengers

・ Identify access/egress transport modes connecting to MRT

・Identify taxi fuel consumption and average number of passengers

・ Identify bus fuel consumption and average number of passengers

Subject Residents along MRT lines lines 1 and 2 (5,000)

Taxi drivers in wait at taxi pools along MRT lines lines 1 and 2 (460 drivers)

Bus operators operating in Hanoi (10 operators, 79 vehicles)

Findings

・ Modal share : motorcycles 73.9%, buses 14.7% ・Average fuel consumption :

・Average fuel consumption (gasoline): 12.75 km/l

・ Average number of

・ Average fuel consumption (diesel) : 2.87 km/l


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30.84 km/l for motorcycles 11.18 km/l for automobiles ・Average number of passengers: 1.17 for motorcycles 1.51 for automobiles (including drivers)

passengers: 2.30 (excluding drivers)

・Average number of passengers:

40.18 (excluding drivers)

4. Results of JCM/BOCM FS (1) GHG Emission Reduction Effects by the Implementation of Project/Activity: Impact on reduction in GHG emissions

This project aims to introduce a mass rapid transit (MRT) system in the three cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) and Jakarta (Indonesia), which heavily rely on road-based transport systems such as motorcycles, automobiles, and buses, in order to reduce GHG emissions from such existing road-based transport modes through acceleration of a modal shift. MRV methodology

Two options are available for MRV methodology to quantitatively evaluate the impact of this modal shift on GHG emission reductions. Each option is described in "(3) Calculation Method Options " of this report. These methods are based on CDM's ACM0016 (Mass Rapid Transit Projects).

In addition to MRT, these methods apply to other mass transport systems, such as BRT and LRT. Basically, the methods use the same calculation formula.

The following calculation formula is used to determine emission reductions. "Reference

emissions" refer to emissions from existing road-based transport modes without MRT in place and are determined by "traffic volume (pkm) × CO2 emission factor (tCO2/pkm)." However, it is to be noted that in calculation of traffic volume, travel distance for access/egress zones is taken into consideration, as well as distance between MRT stations.

Project emissions are the sum of emissions from MRT operations (electricity consumption (MWh) × emission factor (tCO2/MWh) × (1 - transmission and distribution loss)) and emissions in transport modes in access/egress zones (traffic volume (pkm) × emission factor (tCO2/km)).


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Fig. Calculation method for reference emissions

Fig. Calculation method for project emissions

(2) Eligibility Criteria for MRV Methodology Application: Eligibility Criteria A project intended to introduce a mass passenger transport system (e.g., MRT, BRT) A project using or planning to use non-private foreign capital, in part or in whole, for

introducing a transport system Basis for additional impact on emission reductions


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In any country, any introduction of a mass passenger transport system is generally planned years before its decision to implement it. Whether the transport system is installed depends on the financing capabilities of the country. The system would be introduced without any problems if it is financed solely domestically or by private funds. By contrast, the country relies on non-private foreign capital, and a decision of a loan significantly affects the feasibility of the transport systems. Any potential non-private foreign donor makes such a decision based not only of the financial aspects of the project but also on its social significance. GHG emission reductions are an important factor of social significance in introduction of a mass passenger transport system. As any project to be financed by non-private foreign parties is one incapable of raising capital domestically, such project is automatically recognized as "additional" under the JCM/BOCM. (3) Calculation Method Options:

The following two options should be taken into consideration as calculation methods: Option (1) is the simpler option. This option produces low emission reductions,

compared to option (2), because the former applies conservative default values. By contrast, option (2) results in higher emission reductions although the option produces larger monitoring burden as it requires the implementation of a questionnaire survey on MRT passengers after the start of MRT operation. The project participant will select a calculation method option based on monitoring burden relative to the amount of emission reductions achieved.

Table: Calculation option Option CO2 emission factor

(Reference scenario) Access/egress zone

(1) Default Default (2) Questionnaire survey after the start

of MRT operation Questionnaire survey after the start of MRT operation

Figure: Selection of calculation method option

(4) Necessary Data for Calculation:

The following data are needed for calculation: Table: List of necessary data for calculation

RE/PE*1,2 Data M/S/D*3 Status Remarks RE（A） Number of passengers

between Station m and Station n [person/y]

M (Op.1/2) IC cards can be used for calculation

Introduction of an IC card is yet to be determined. Even if it is introduced, it is necessary to confirm whether the system can process and produce appropriately.

Estimation based on fare Different information may be

※ Y：YES，N：NO


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revenues and the number of passengers using each station

obtained depending on the ticket system.

RE（A） Induced ratio for station-to-station distance category x

S (Op.1) Specifically set in this FS study

It is highly risky to set specific values using the study results that are based on many assumptions concerning MRT still to be realized. For this reason, it is necessary to conduct another study to determine values right before the start of MRT operation.

RE（A） Distance between Station m and Station n [km]

S (Op.1/2) A line plan in place －

RE（B） Correction factor of travel distance in access/egress zone for passengers traveling in station-to-station distance category x (reference) [-]

S(Op.1) Specifically set in this FS study

Conservatively to take the lower limit of 95% confidence interval

RE（A/B） CO2 emission factor in reference scenario [tCO2/pkm]


Conservatively to take the lower limit of 95% confidence interval

PE（B） CO2 emission factor in project scenario [tCO2/pkm]


Conservatively to take the upper limit of 95% confidence interval

RE（A/B） Fuel consumption improvement facto [-]

D(Op.1) Specifically set in this FS study

1% (It is same as ACM0016)

RE（A/B） CO2 emission factor of fuel type of the transport mode used in the absence of MRT [tCO2/specific unit]

D(Op. 2) Specifically set in this FS study

To be updated annually

PE（B） CO2 emission factor of fuel type of the transport mode used in the access/egress zone [tCO2/specific unit]

D(Op. 2) Specifically set in this FS study


RE（A/B） Fuel consumption of the transport mode used in the absence of MRT [km/specific unit]

M(Op.2) A questionnaire survey conducted after start of MRT operation

－

PE（B） Fuel consumption of the transport mode used in access/egress zone [km/specific unit]


－

RE（A/B）

Number of accompanying persons using transport mode in the absence of MRT [person/vehicle]


－

PE（B） Number of accompanying persons using transport mode in access/egress zone [person/vehicle]


－

RE（A/B） Whole travel distance from origin to destination in the absence of MRT [km]


－

RE（B） Travel distance in corresponding to access/egress zone of passengers traveling in


－


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station-to-station distance category x (reference) [km]

PE（B） Travel distance in access/egress zone of passengers traveling in station-to-station distance category x (project) [km]


－

PE（B） Correction factor of travel distance in access/egress zone for passengers traveling in station-to-station distance category x (project) [-]

Ｓ(Op.1) Specifically set in this FS study

Conservatively to take the upper limit of 95% confidence interval

PE(A) Electricity consumption by MRT [MWh/y]

M (Op.1/2) Purchase slips available Electricity consumption only for MRT operation

PE(A) CO2 emission factor of grid power (transmission end) [tCO2/MWh]

D (Op.1/2) Specifically set in this FS study


PE(A) Transmission and distribution loss of grid power

D (Op.1/2) Specifically set in this FS study


*1: RE: reference emissions; PE: project emissions *2: A: MRT zone, B: access/egress transport zone *3: M: monitoring; S: project -specific value; D: default values settings (5) Default Value(s) Set in MRV Methodology:

Default values are selected in such a way as to be commonly applicable to calculation methods for CO2 emission reductions by MRT systems in Vietnam. These default values should be applicable not only to Hanoi but to any other parts of the country.

For the purpose of this study, default values should be set for four items, as shown in the List of necessary data for calculation: “CO2 emission factor of fuel j,” “Fuel consumption improvement factor,” “CO2 emission factor of grid power (transmission end),” and “transmission and distribution loss.”

With respect to these four items, the following table shows the survey approach for default values settings, default values, basis for the setting, and the reason for these default values representing conservative values:

Table: Default values settings RE/PE Item Survey approach Default Basis for

settings Reason for assuming conservative values

RE PE

CO2 emission factor of fuel j

Existing published values are used.

Diesel: 0.00279 tCO2/l Gasoline: 0.00240 tCO2/l (to be updated annually)

Calculated using IPCC Guideline 2006and other published documents

Published average values. No more conservative values are necessary.

RE PE

Fuel consumption improvement factor

Estimated from existing cases of fuel efficiency improvement

1%/year Fuel consumption varies depending on a variety of factors. A value associated with technical improvement is used to reflect rapid development in

Referred from CDM methodology “AM0031” and “ACM0016”.


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vehicle technology.

PE CO2 emission factor of grid power (transmission end)


0.5408 tCO2/MWh (to be updated annually)

Based on published figures from MONRE


PE Transmission and distribution loss


10.1% (to be updated annually)

Based on published figures from World Bank


Project-specific values are those set to develop Hanoi’s MRT Lines 1 and 2. For the

purpose of this study, project-specific values should be set for six items, as shown in the List of Project-specific value settings: “Distance between Station m and Station n,” “CO2 emission factor of transport modes that could be used by MRT passengers in the absence of MRT,”” Induced ratio for distance category x”, “CO2 emission factor of transport modes used in access/egress zones,” ,” Correction factor for passenger’s travel distance in access/egress zone connecting to section for distance category x in reference scenario” and “Correction factor for passenger’s travel distance in access/egress zone connecting to section for distance category x in project scenario.”

With respect to these six items, the following table shows the survey approach for project-specific value settings, project-specific values, basis for the setting, and the reason for these project-specific values representing conservative values:

Table: Project-specific value settings

RE/PE Item Survey approach Project-specific value Basis for settings Reason for assuming

conservative values RE CO2 emission

factor of transport modes that could be used by MRT passengers in the absence of MRT

Existing published figures are used. Also, a questionnaire survey is conducted on residents living along MRT lines who own motorcycles or automobiles, along with an interview with taxi drivers and bus operators.

By station-to-station distance, 4 km or less: 6.41×10－5 tCO2/pkm 4-6 km: 6.88×10－5 tCO2/pkm 6-8 km: 7.02×10－5 tCO2/pkm More than 8 km: 5.79×10 － 5 tCO2/pkm

∑ (Travel distance of respondent i / Fuel consumption of transport mode which respondent i will use in the absence of MRT / Number of accompanying persons for respondent i ×CO2 emission factor of fuel type of the transport mode which respondent i will use) / ∑ (Travel distance of respondent i)

Default values are determined by station-to-station distance by using the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval, and then the minimum CO2 emission factor is produced, taking statistical error into account, in order to obtain conservative values.

RE Induced ratio for distance category x

A questionnaire survey is conducted in residents living along MRT lines.

By distance, Less than 4 km: 17.2％ 4-6 km: 12.9% 6-8 km: 11.6% More than 8 km: 17.7%

Annual passenger-kilometers of induced trips / (Annual passenger-kilometers of induced trips ＋Annual passenger-kilometers of shifted trips)

The current figures collected from the questionnaire survey may be higher than initially estimated because the respondents include those who want to try MRT.

PE CO2 emission factor of transport modes

A questionnaire survey is conducted on residents living

By station-to-station distance,

∑ Travel distance in access/egress zone of respondent i

Default values are determined by station-to-station distance


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used in access/egress zones

along MRT lines who own motorcycles or automobiles, along with an interview with taxi drivers and bus operators. Also existing published figures are used.

4 km or less: 1.39×10－5 tCO2/pkm 4-6km: 1.26×10－5 tCO2/pkm 6-8km: 1.91×10－5 tCO2/pkm More than 8 km: 2.69×10 － 5 tCO2/pkm

/ Fuel consumption of the transport mode which respondent i will use in access/egress zone / Number of accompanying persons for respondent i ×CO2 emission factor of fuel type of the transport mode which respondent i will use) / ∑ (Travel distance in access/egress zone of respondent i )

by using the higher limit of the 95% confidence interval, and then the maximum CO2 emission factor is produced, taking statistical error into account, in order to obtain conservative values.

RE Distance between Station m and Station n [km]

Line plans for MRT Lines 1 and 2 are used.

Station-to-station line length (not specifically

shown because there are too many)

Line plans for MRT Lines 1 and 2

Exact distance can be acquired from measurement. No more conservative values are necessary.

RE Correction factor for passenger’s travel distance in access/egress zone connecting to section for distance category x in reference scenario

Based on a questionnaire survey on residents living along MRT lines, the distance of before MRT-shifted trips in the access/egress zone is determined and compared with the station-to-station distance.

By station-to-station distance, 4 km or less: 0.68 4-6km: 0.23 6-8km: 0.22 More than 8 km: 0.20

Ratio of virtual access/egress zone distance to station-to-station distance in a daily non-MRT trip of residents living along MRT lines

Default values are determined by station-to-station distance by using the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval, and then the minimum correction factor is produced, taking statistical error into account, in order to obtain conservative values.

PE Correction factor for passenger’s travel distance in access/egress zone connecting to section for distance category x in project scenario

Based on a questionnaire survey on residents living along MRT lines, the distance of MRT-shifted trips in the access/egress zone is determined and compared with the station-to-station distance.

By station-to-station distance, 4 km or less: 0.64 4-6km: 0.42 6-8km: 0.39 More than 8 km: 0.36

Ratio of access/egress zone distance to station-to-station distance in a daily non-MRT trip of residents living along MRT lines

Default values are determined by station-to-station distance by using the higher limit of the 95% confidence interval, and then the maximum correction factor is produced, taking statistical error into account, in order to obtain conservative values.

(6) Setting of Reference Scenario and Project/Activity Boundary: Reference scenario

In the reference scenario, MRT is not introduced, and instead existing transport modes continue to be used.

Conservatively, minimum values are applied to CO2 emission factor per person-kilometer and travel distance corresponding to access/egress zone (the lower limit of 95% confidence interval). In addition, fuel consumptions of existing transport modes are assumed to be improved 1% annually.

An estimate was made for CO2 emissions generated from existing trips of people who


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responded in the local survey in Hanoi that they would shift to MRT when it is introduced. This is the current BaU. A change with time was included in this BaU to create the reference scenario. It is very difficult to estimate annual changes, and such estimation requires high cost. In this reference scenario, we assume that fuel consumption improves 1% annually in line with technical improvement (source: ACM0016).

In addition, with respect to (a) CO2 emission factor (tCO2/pkm) and (b) correction factor for access/egress travel distance, the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval was selected as a default, instead of the average obtained from the local survey in Hanoi, in order to maintain the conservativeness of the reference scenario.

In the reference scenario, MRT is assumed to be undeveloped, because the installation of

MRT is by itself additional (see "4.3 eligibility criteria for MRV methodology"), and other transportation modes would not be installed considering necessary capacity of transportation.

Boundary

Within the boundary, CO2 emitting activities are assumed to be conducted in the following three sites:

(A) MRT zone (between MRT stations), (B) Access/egress zone (between origin and MRT station and between MRT station and

destination), and (C) Surrounding road (along MRT lines lines)

Of the three above, this methodology includes (A) MRT zone and (B) access/egress zone within the boundary. The table below shows emission sources and GHG types that included in calculation.

Table: Emission sources and GHG types included in calculation

RE/PE Emission source GHG type A) MRT RE Transport mode replaced by MRT CO2

PE MRT CO2 B) Access/egress RE Transport mode replaced by MRT CO2

PE Transport mode used between origin and MRT station and between MRT station and destination

CO2

*1: RE: Reference emissions, PE: Project emissions


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Figure: Boundary

The following table shows the findings of a CDM case study concerning (B) emission

from access/egress traffic and (C) emission from surrounding road traffic (leakage emissions):

Table: Impact of access/egress and leakage emissions under CDM projects Project

(applied methodology: ACM0016)

MRT /BRT

PDD/MR※

(B) Emissions from access/egress transport (C) Leakage emissions

tCO2/year Emissions tCO2/year

Share in project emissions

BRT Lines 1-5 EDOMEX, Mexico

BRT MR 10,858 46.4% 48

Metro Delhi, India MRT MR 72,658 29.4% 287 BRT Metrobus Insurgentes, Mexico

BRT PDD 51,397 74.6% 0

Mumbai Metro One, India MRT PDD 38,489 56.5% 0 Metro Line 12, Mexico City (not registered)

MRT PDD 125,871 93.4% 0

※MR: Monitoring Report

Based on the above findings and the results of the local survey in Hanoi, this study treats these different types of emissions as follows:

(B) Emission from access/egress traffic: It is within the boundary because there is impact to a certain degree on emission reductions.

(C) Leakage emission: In all cases, there is no leakage emission, or its impact is negligible, and thus leakage emission is excluded from this study.

(7) Monitoring Methods: The following table shows parameters to be monitored, monitoring technique, and

monitoring frequency: Table: Parameters, method, and frequency of monitoring

RE/PE*1,2 Data Op. *3 Monitoring method Monitoring frequency RE(A/B) Number of passengers

between Station m and Station n [person/y]

Op.1/2 Records and data on IC cards

Continuous (totalization: at least once a year)

Estimated based on fare revenues and the number of passengers using each station

Continuous (totalization: at least once a year)


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RE（A/B） Fuel consumption of transport mode used in the absence of MRT [km/specific unit]

Op.2 Questionnaire survey after start of MRT operation

Once a year

PE（B） Fuel consumption of transport mode used in the access/egress zone[km/specific unit]


Once a year

RE（A/B）

Number of accompanying persons using transport mode in the absence of MRT ［persons/a vehicle］


Once a year

PE（B） Number of accompanying persons using transport mode in the access/egress zone ［persons/a vehicle］


Once a year

RE（A/B） Whole travel distance from origin to destination for respondent i who will travel for station-to-station distance category x ［km］


Once a year

RE（B） Travel distance in corresponding to access/egress zone of respondent i who will travel for station-to-station distance category x ［km］


Once a year

PE（B） Travel distance in access/egress zone of respondent i who will travel for station-to-station distance category x［km］


Once a year

PE(A) Power consumption by MRT [MWh/y]

Op.1/2 Power purchase slip Each time a slip is received (Totalization: at least once a year)

*1: RE: reference emissions; PE: project emissions *2: A：MRT zone、B：access/egress zone *3: Op.：Calculation method option

In calculation method option (1), which does not require the implementation of a questionnaire survey, monitoring is required only on data collected by MRT operators as part of their regular railway management (e.g. number of passengers between MRT stations, electricity consumption). For this reason, the enforceability of this monitoring method is extremely high.

On the other hand, in calculation method option (2), which requires the implementation of a questionnaire survey, the enforceability of the monitoring method is low, compared to option (1). This option requires the same level of monitoring and can be employed to obtain more accurate figures of emission reductions.

The monitoring system varies according to the calculation option used. Basically, an MRT operator alone can conduct monitoring, except that questionnaire surveys (option (2))


＜17＞

may have to be conducted on its behalf by external consultants or other service providers. The following system structure may be assumed:

Figure: Monitoring structure

(8) Quantification of GHG Emissions and its Reductions:

Based on data obtained during the course of this study, emission reductions were estimated for Hanoi Lines 1 and 2, Ho Chi Minh City Line 1, and Jakarta North-South Line. As explained previously, the default values were set on the basis of the findings of the questionnaire survey in Hanoi. In this feasibility study, the same default values are applied to estimation of emission reductions in Ho Chi Minh City and Jakarta.

The table below shows the estimated emission reductions in option1.

Table: Estimated emission reductions Option Line Reference emissions Project emissions Emission reductions Op.1 Hanoi Line 1 92,466 54,199 38,267

Hanoi Line 2 69,434 27,855 41,579 Ho Chi Minh Line 1 144,669 55,990 88,678 Jakarta North-South Line

88,973 68,565 20,408

9 MRT lines in Hanoi and 6 lines in Ho Chi Minh City are in the planning stage in

Vietnam. The length of each line is yet to be detailed. If MRT is introduced into all lines and it is assumed that the other lines have the same level of impact as Hanoi Lines 1 and 2 on emission reductions, then emission reductions potential would be about 600,000 [tCO2/year] in option 1.


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(9) Verification of GHG Emission Reductions: Under this project, verification is needed as follows:

• Option 1： Basically, default values are applied to (a) distance between MRT stations, (b) number of passengers between MRT stations, and (c) electricity consumption by MRT. In verification, it is required to identify the technique used to measure item (a). For item (b), it is necessary to first substantiate the reliability of IC cards used to determine the number of passengers (in accordance with international/national standards). It is also important to exclude missing data or other data errors. For item (c), it is important that the values represent electricity consumption solely by MRT. To confirm electricity consumption, purchase slips should be verified.

• Option 2：In addition to option 1, passenger information (e.g. travel distance, transport modes used in the absence of MRT, and fuel consumption of such modes) is input using the questionnaire survey results. To do so, it is necessary to check the input values with the original questionnaire survey by sampling. It is disputable how to exclude abnormal values from the questionnaire survey results or how questionnaire surveys should be organized. Such problems would be solved if an appropriate methodology is determined. Then, there is no need to formulate specific techniques for each project.

Candidates for verification organizations in Vietnam include Vietnam Certification Centre and Bureau Veritas Certification Viet Nam. (10) Ensuring Environmental Integrity:

Environmental impact assessment laws are in place in both Vietnam and Indonesia. Environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been completed on the four covered lines and approved by the national and local governments. The main favorable environmental impact of this project is reduction in air pollutants (NOx, CO, HC, and PM) realized by reduced use of road-based transport systems. Although there are potential adverse impacts from dust and noise generated in construction and vibration and other nuisances associated with MRT operations, this project will be highly effective and beneficial, considering its good environmental impact and contribution to sustainable development of the recipient countries. (11) Comments from Local Stakeholders:

This study aims not to determine the feasibility of the project itself but to discuss how to measure GHG emission reductions realized by the introduction of MRT. In this study, the stakeholders are composed of relevant government agencies and project MRT operators in the recipient countries, in addition to JICA, which provides financial support to them. During the course of this study, a number of meetings were held with relevant government agencies and MRT operators to brief them on the progress of our discussion on MRV methodology. At the January 23 meeting in Hanoi for the final report of this study and opinion hearing from local participants, comments were collected from Vietnam's Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Transport, the Strategy and Policy Institute, Metropolitan Railway Management Board (MRB), Vietnam National Railways (VNR), which manages Hanoi lines 1 and 2, and other concerned organizations. As the project under this study is being discussed as part of the JCM/BOCM, the project is favorably received by the participating organizations. They also hope that the JCM/BOCM will be applied to other lines.

(12) Structure to Implement Project/Activity:

Our project will be implemented under the following scheme:


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As a rule, the MRT project will be implemented by an entity set up by the local government. EPC bids are arranged for three different segments—civil engineering, railway vehicle, and electrical & mechanical (E&M). Local and foreign businesses participate as consortiums in a bid in their specialty segment.

(13) Financial Plan to Implement Project/Activity:

About 80% of the total investment will be financed by ODA yen loans. Applicable railway fares, the source of revenue in railway operation, are being discussed by JICA as part of the technical cooperation currently being provided to three Vietnamese project operators.

(14) How to Promote the Introduction of Japanese Technologies:

In MRT projects, bids are arranged for three different segments: (i) civil engineering, (2) railway vehicle, and (3) electrical & mechanical (E&M) (e.g. signaling, communication, and electrification). Because an ODA yen loan is to be extended for the MRT lines under our project, subject to Japan’s technology utilization requirements of SETP, at least 30% of the loan must be used to purchase equipment and services from Japan. For this reason, Japanese products are expected to be introduced in the railway vehicle and E&M segments, for which Japan can demonstrate its superiority in manufacturing technology and operation know-how.

With respect to the E&M segment, a series of seminars have been organized in Vietnam on the initiative of Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism to


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accelerate the introduction of Japan's automatic fare collection (AFC) system. Involved parties are interested in Type C (Felica) system and its associated technologies. Ho Chi Minh City has already decided to introduce Type C system not only for Line 1 but for all other lines.

(15) Prospects and Challenges Onward:

Both Vietnam and Indonesia are keenly aware of the importance of cutting GHG emissions in the transport sector. In the countries, there are high expectations for the JCM/BOCM to be applied to this sector.

Japan has decided to extend ODA yen loans for the four projects addressed in this study, which are scheduled to start between 2017 and 2020. ODA funds will be released simultaneously with the startup. However, to start the project as scheduled, it is required to solve business-related issues (e.g. expropriation of land, acquisition of necessary financial resources, design risk, selection of a project operator, formation of a network of lines) , as well as issues associated with the application of the JCM/BOCM (e.g. methodology approval by the Joint Committee, extension of the MRV methodology, application to Ho Chi Minh City and Jakarta, an additional study necessary to apply the methodology, designing of a credit system beneficial to the project operator, applicability of an automatic fare collection system to monitoring) .

5. Contribution to Sustainable Development in Host Country

In the three cities covered in this study, public transport systems are undeveloped, and the cities rely heavily on road-based transport. With growing urban populations and unchanged transport systems, the countries would find it impossible to ensure sustainable development. Under these circumstances, it is inevitable to build an MRT system in these cities to make transport significantly efficient. MRT is now an essential part of national policies and urban master plans.

Vietnamese MOT commented that expectations are high in the country for MRT not only to reduce GHG emissions but also to mitigate air pollution.

Documents

Promotion of Modal Shift from Road -based Transport …gec.jp/gec/en/Activities/fs_newmex/2012/2012_jcmbocmfs12_eMRI... · H24 JCM/BOCM FS Final Report (Summary) ＜3 ... FS Title: