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Baja California and San Diego Trans-Border Economics. The San Diego Tijuana Transborder Economy 2013.
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Baja California and San Diego Trans-Border Economics.Baja California and San Diego Trans-Border Economics.
The San Diego Tijuana Transborder EconomyThe San Diego Tijuana Transborder Economy
Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Ph.D.Ph.D.
Professor of International Economics at Colefand Distinguished ResearcherNational Council of Science and Technology
Friday, November 16, 2012, at the Westgate Hotel, San Diego. Vital Issues and Global Opportunities for the2013 Economy of our Bi-National Region.
IntroductionIntroduction
Mexico is doing well in economic terms: Mexico is doing well in economic terms: low debt, low deficit and moderate low debt, low deficit and moderate economic growth. economic growth.
Emerging markets are in much better Emerging markets are in much better shape, with higher levels of economic shape, with higher levels of economic growth, compared to most advanced growth, compared to most advanced economies .economies .
Unemployment is a major problem for Unemployment is a major problem for emerging and advanced economies during emerging and advanced economies during 2012.2012.
The United States- Mexico border regionThe United States- Mexico border region
United States - Mexico Border States
Description:
• 10 border states.
• Nearly 2,000-mile (3,169 km or 1,969 miles) of international border.
• Population: more than 83 million.
The United States- Mexico border regionThe United States- Mexico border region
The ten Border States represent the largest binational regional economy in The ten Border States represent the largest binational regional economy in the world, with over 83 million people and a combined economy ranked the world, with over 83 million people and a combined economy ranked estimated at number four in the world in economic terms.estimated at number four in the world in economic terms.
This region has 51 border crossings, 32 bridges and seven federal railway This region has 51 border crossings, 32 bridges and seven federal railway routes, placing it as the busiest border in the world, with over 350 million routes, placing it as the busiest border in the world, with over 350 million people cross the border each year.people cross the border each year.
The economic slowdown and unemployment are among the issues that The economic slowdown and unemployment are among the issues that currently affect the people on both sides of the border. currently affect the people on both sides of the border.
The state of Arizona had an unemployment rate of 9.4 percent, Texas, 8.4 The state of Arizona had an unemployment rate of 9.4 percent, Texas, 8.4 percent; New Mexico, 6.7 percent, and California, 12 percent (the highest), percent; New Mexico, 6.7 percent, and California, 12 percent (the highest), according to the figures from July 2011, compared to an unemployment according to the figures from July 2011, compared to an unemployment rate of 9.1 percent in the United States during July 2011.rate of 9.1 percent in the United States during July 2011.
In July 2011, the northern border states of Mexico were also showing high In July 2011, the northern border states of Mexico were also showing high unemployment rates. The state of Baja California had an unemployment unemployment rates. The state of Baja California had an unemployment rate of 5.05 percent, Sonora, 5.65 percent; Chihuahua, 6.81 percent; rate of 5.05 percent, Sonora, 5.65 percent; Chihuahua, 6.81 percent; Coahuila, 6.27 percent; Nuevo Leon, 6.49 percent; and Tamaulipas, 8.81 Coahuila, 6.27 percent; Nuevo Leon, 6.49 percent; and Tamaulipas, 8.81 percent (the highest).percent (the highest).
Unemployment in Mexico (2010)Unemployment in Mexico (2010)
The United States Mexico The United States Mexico Border Unemployment (2012)Border Unemployment (2012)
Official figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Official figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) show that during the second quarter of 2012, Geography (INEGI) show that during the second quarter of 2012, the northern border states in Mexico continue to show high the northern border states in Mexico continue to show high unemployment rates. Chihuahua had a 7% unemployment rate, unemployment rates. Chihuahua had a 7% unemployment rate, Tamaulipas with 6%; Sonora with 5.4%, Coahuila with 5.5%, Tamaulipas with 6%; Sonora with 5.4%, Coahuila with 5.5%, Nuevo Leon with 6.4% , and Baja California with a 6.1% Nuevo Leon with 6.4% , and Baja California with a 6.1% unemployment rate. On average, the unemployment rate of the unemployment rate. On average, the unemployment rate of the northern border states of Mexico is estimated close to 6.06% northern border states of Mexico is estimated close to 6.06% during the second quarter of 2012.during the second quarter of 2012.
Furthermore, at the end of July 2012, the southern U.S. border Furthermore, at the end of July 2012, the southern U.S. border states also suffered with high unemployment rates: California with states also suffered with high unemployment rates: California with 10.7%, Arizona with 8.3%, 6.6% for New Mexico, and Texas with 10.7%, Arizona with 8.3%, 6.6% for New Mexico, and Texas with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. On average, the an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. On average, the unemployment rate of the southern border states of the United unemployment rate of the southern border states of the United States is estimated at 6.06% during the month of July 2012.States is estimated at 6.06% during the month of July 2012.
Unemployment in CaliforniaUnemployment in California
Unemployment in San DiegoUnemployment in San Diego
VATVAT
Possible increase in Possible increase in the VAT rate in 2013 the VAT rate in 2013 in Mexico.in Mexico.
Mexico has a VAT of Mexico has a VAT of 11% in the border 11% in the border region and 16% for region and 16% for the rest of the the rest of the country.country.
VAT/GST rates in OECD member countries2010 2011
Australia 2000 10.0 10.0Austria3 1973 20.0 20.0Belgium 1971 21.0 21.0Canada4 1991 5.0 5.0Chile 1975 19.0 19.0Czech Republic1993 20.0 20.0Denmark 1967 25.0 25.0Estonia 1991 20.0 20.0Finland 1994 22.0 23.0France5 1968 19.6 19.6Germany 1968 19.0 19.0Greece6 1987 19.0 23.0Hungary 1988 25.0 25.0Iceland 1989 25.5 25.5Ireland 1972 21.0 21.0Israel7 1976 16.0 16.0Italy 1973 20.0 20.0Japan 1989 5.0 5.0Korea 1977 10.0 10.0Luxembourg 1970 15.0 15.0Mexico8 1980 16.0 16.0Netherlands 1969 19.0 19.0New Zealand 1986 12.5 15.0Norway 1970 25.0 25.0Poland 1993 22.0 23.0Portugal9 1986 20.0 23Slovak Republic1993 19.0 20.0Slovenia 1999 20.0 20.0Spain10 1986 16.0 18.0Sweden 1969 25.0 25.0Switzerland 1995 7.6 8.0Turkey 1985 18.0 18United Kingdom1973 17.5 20.0Unweighted average 18.0 18.5
The United States Mexico The United States Mexico BorderBorder
People cross the United States People cross the United States Mexico border every day to do Mexico border every day to do business, go shopping, visit family business, go shopping, visit family members, or simply to enjoy each members, or simply to enjoy each other’s tourism. other’s tourism.
This results in around 350 million This results in around 350 million crossings and almost $400 billion in crossings and almost $400 billion in trade each year, making it the most trade each year, making it the most important border region in the world.important border region in the world.
Baja California and California Economic IntegrationBaja California and California Economic Integration
Economic Integration can also be seen at the regional level. Economic Integration can also be seen at the regional level. During 2010, the official data shows that the number of During 2010, the official data shows that the number of
northbound crossers from Baja California to California northbound crossers from Baja California to California reached 61,105,484 people, the majority of whom, crossed reached 61,105,484 people, the majority of whom, crossed in personal vehicles. Baja California residents constitute an in personal vehicles. Baja California residents constitute an important component in the economy of communities and important component in the economy of communities and counties on the U.S. side of the border, like San Diego counties on the U.S. side of the border, like San Diego County. County.
These visitors from Baja California enter the U.S. regularly These visitors from Baja California enter the U.S. regularly for shopping, tourism, work, and socialization with family for shopping, tourism, work, and socialization with family and friends. It’s a well known fact that cross border visitors and friends. It’s a well known fact that cross border visitors from Mexico have a significant economic impact on U.S. from Mexico have a significant economic impact on U.S. communities and counties. communities and counties.
The Border Economic Zone (BEZ) in Baja California
A major challenge for the commercial sector of Baja California is without a doubt, the increase consumer spending of Baja California residents into the U.S. market, which has been estimated at around 6 billion dollars a year.
With the implementation of the BEZ in 2012, Baja California wants to recover part of the consumer spending by Baja residents in California.
The BEZ is intended to promote the consumption of regionally made goods in the Baja California region. The economic impact of the implementation of the BEZ could be as high as an 8% reduction of spending by Baja California residents in California.
The Border Economic Zone (BEZ)The Border Economic Zone (BEZ)
A considerable amount of money is spent on A considerable amount of money is spent on a multitude of retail items including a multitude of retail items including groceries, clothing, appliances, tourism and groceries, clothing, appliances, tourism and services. services.
As a measure to increase consumer spending As a measure to increase consumer spending in the state of Baja California, the in the state of Baja California, the government and business sectors of Baja government and business sectors of Baja California in conjunction with the State California in conjunction with the State Government and the Federal Government Government and the Federal Government proposed the new Border Economic Zone proposed the new Border Economic Zone (BEZ) in 2012.(BEZ) in 2012.
“El Buen Fin” Program in Mexico
The idea of “El Buen Fin” program in Mexico was created as a private initiative to enforce the economic activity in Mexico during November of 2011. The initiative was presented through a program created by the federal government and some of the most important media networks of Mexico.
The program is similar, in some way, to the famous “Black Friday” of the United States, while this day represents the day with highest consumer spending, and when the commercial sector shows their best offers and the biggest discounts throughout the year.
The economic impact of the implementation of the “El Buen Fin Program” was estimated as high as a 2% reduction of spending by Baja California residents in California during 2011.
Economic Impacts and Expenditures
Shopping is the primary reason to cross into the U.S. for Baja California residents. Depending on the study, 42 to 68% of border crossers identify shopping as the primary reason for the visit into Southern California. Other reasons are social in nature, like visiting family and friends, or are work related.
During 2010, around 74 percent of crossers entered California in their private vehicles, since a car allows them freedom of movement between different shopping locations in the U.S. as well as enough room to handle the volume of their purchases.
The estimated average daily expenditures reported by Baja California visitors into San Diego County and California in various studies ranges from US $140 per trip to $300 per trip. The current estimation uses an average amount of expenditures per trip of $240 per trip as the base case scenario.
Annual Retail Sales in California by Baja California Border Crossers (Economic Growth Scenario)
0
1000000000
2000000000
3000000000
4000000000
5000000000
6000000000
7000000000
8000000000
9000000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
year
Dolla
rs
Low Spend. Case
High Spend. Case
Base Spend. Case
El Buen Fin Program
BEZ
California Economic Impacts
The California and Baja California border region remains an example of social and economic integration in North America, where cross-border shopping is only one aspect of that economic reality in the border region.
Mexican citizens cross frequently into the U.S. to shop, work, dine, vacation, and visit friends and family. What they spend on those visits results in a key contribution to local border economies in California.
The results reveal annual retail sales by Baja California Cross Border Visitors in the range of 5.9 to 6.8 billion dollars along the U.S.-Mexico border, depending on the complete implementation of the Border Economic Zone (BEZ) in Baja California and the “El Buen Fin Program”.
The base case scenario shows that Baja California consumer and economic drain into the U.S. market is estimated at around 5.9 billion dollars in 2012 and 6.2 billion dollars in 2014, with the implementation of the Border Economic Zone (BEZ).
San Diego County Cross Border Retail Sales 2010-2014
0
1000000000
2000000000
3000000000
4000000000
5000000000
6000000000
7000000000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Dol
lars
Low Spend. Case
High Spend. Case
Base Spend. Case
El Buen Fin Program
BEZ
San Diego County Economic Impacts The results reveal a substantial overall San Diego County cross border
retail sales in the order of 4 billion dollars during 2012 along the Baja California – San Diego County border.
Expenditures by cross border residents of Baja California are estimated at 4.2 billion dollars in San Diego County during 2014 using the base case spending scenario and with the implementation of the BEZ.
The San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos metropolitan area’s GDP in 2009 was estimated at around $171.4 billion, ranking 16th in the United States, according to the federal bureau of Economic Analysis.
In San Diego County, the Hispanic population increased from 27% in 2000 to 32% in 2010, with the resulting significant contribution to the regional economy.
From 1995 to 2010, the official estimates indicate more than 450 million personal vehicle crossings with 966 million passengers, and more than 260 million pedestrian crossings, from Baja California to California.
Expenditures by cross border residents of Baja California in San Diego County represents around 2.4% of the annual gross domestic product in San Diego County.
A new economic and competitive binational Mega-region is evolving. The Baja California – Southern California Mega Region includes Los Angeles County, Orange County, Riverside, Imperial and San Diego Counties on the California side, and Tijuana, Rosarito, Tecate and the port of Ensenada on the Baja California side.
Global FDI Flows 2011- 2012 Global FDI inflows are likely to be around $1.6
trillion.
Foreign direct investments worldwide are projected to return to pre-crisis 2008 levels this year, with inflows expected to be up to USD 1.6 trillion.
Recovery of FDI inflows would continue this year while pegging the amount at around USD 1.4 trillion to USD 1.6 trillion.
Brought down by the 2008 financial meltdown and its ripple effects, FDI worldwide tumbled to just USD 1.19 trillion in 2009. Last year, the inflows were slightly better at USD 1.24 trillion.
FDI in the NAFTA RegionFDI in the NAFTA Region The NAFTA region has created new opportunities The NAFTA region has created new opportunities
of investment and trade for the companies of all 3 of investment and trade for the companies of all 3 countries, and 50 % of FDI in NAFTA is between countries, and 50 % of FDI in NAFTA is between trade partners. For Mexico, the United States is trade partners. For Mexico, the United States is the main source of FDI. the main source of FDI.
FDI is of great importance the Northern Border FDI is of great importance the Northern Border Mexican Region, and by the year 2004, FDI in the Mexican Region, and by the year 2004, FDI in the Northern Border States of Mexico represented Northern Border States of Mexico represented 18.7% of total FDI at the national level. The 18.7% of total FDI at the national level. The Northern Border States that are considered in this Northern Border States that are considered in this study are Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, study are Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas.Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas.
Surface Trade between U.S. and NAFTA Surface Trade between U.S. and NAFTA Countries : 1995 – 2011. Countries : 1995 – 2011.
Surface transportation trade between the United States and Surface transportation trade between the United States and its North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners its North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners Canada and Mexico increased by 14.3 percent in 2011 Canada and Mexico increased by 14.3 percent in 2011 compared to 2010, valued at $904 billion in 2011, compared to 2010, valued at $904 billion in 2011, according to official data by the Bureau of Transportation according to official data by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Statistics (BTS) of the U.S. Department of Transportation.
The 14.3 percent increase in trade was the third largest The 14.3 percent increase in trade was the third largest year-to-year increase for the years covered by these data. year-to-year increase for the years covered by these data.
The $904 billion in U.S.-NAFTA trade was the highest The $904 billion in U.S.-NAFTA trade was the highest amount since NAFTA went into effect in 1994.amount since NAFTA went into effect in 1994.
Commodities Exports Imports Total
Electrical Machinery; Equipment and Parts
29,672 50,799 80,471
Computer-Related Machinery and Parts
29,703 37,864 67,567
Vehicles Other than Railway
17,726 43,446 61,172
Plastics 12,570 3,369 15,939
Measuring and Testing Equipment
4,083 9,348 13,431
Top Five Commodities Transported between the Top Five Commodities Transported between the U.S. and Mexico by All Surface Modes of U.S. and Mexico by All Surface Modes of
Transportation, 2011. (In millions).Transportation, 2011. (In millions).
Top 10 States Exporting to Top 10 States Exporting to Mexico, 2009 to 2011.Mexico, 2009 to 2011.
United States Mexico TradeUnited States Mexico Trade
The U.S. is Mexico’s largest trading partner, The U.S. is Mexico’s largest trading partner, buying more than 80% of Mexican exports during buying more than 80% of Mexican exports during 2010. Mexico is the third largest U.S. trading 2010. Mexico is the third largest U.S. trading partner after China (1st) and Canada (2nd). partner after China (1st) and Canada (2nd). Bilateral goods trade reached $362 billion in 2010 Bilateral goods trade reached $362 billion in 2010 and in 2009 they totaled $278 billion. and in 2009 they totaled $278 billion.
Mexico and the U.S. do as much business in Mexico and the U.S. do as much business in goods and services in just over a month as goods and services in just over a month as Mexico does with all 27 countries of the European Mexico does with all 27 countries of the European Union combined in a year.Union combined in a year.
U.S. Mexico Trade in 2012U.S. Mexico Trade in 2012 Total bilateral trade between the U.S. and Mexico has returned to the Total bilateral trade between the U.S. and Mexico has returned to the
levels before the economic downturn and crisis.levels before the economic downturn and crisis. In 2011, Mexico and the United States had almost 461 billion dollars In 2011, Mexico and the United States had almost 461 billion dollars
in trade in goods, which represents more than 1,250 million dollars in trade in goods, which represents more than 1,250 million dollars or 1.25 billion in trade crossing the border in both directions every or 1.25 billion in trade crossing the border in both directions every day.day.
The economic relationship also adds 39 billion dollars in service The economic relationship also adds 39 billion dollars in service trade.trade.
Mexico continues to export more of their products and services to Mexico continues to export more of their products and services to the United States than any other country in the world. The United the United States than any other country in the world. The United States remains the main destination of Mexican goods and services. States remains the main destination of Mexican goods and services.
The trade relationship between Mexico and the United States not The trade relationship between Mexico and the United States not only is 'back' but it is getting stronger between Mexico and the only is 'back' but it is getting stronger between Mexico and the United States in 2012.United States in 2012.
Migration and border issuesMigration and border issues
Migration and border issuesMigration and border issues
Mexico has seen a significant drop in Mexico has seen a significant drop in migration recently. For the first time in 60 migration recently. For the first time in 60 years the movement of Mexicans to the years the movement of Mexicans to the United States is at a net zero. United States is at a net zero.
A mixture of tougher anti-immigration A mixture of tougher anti-immigration legislation in the southern United States, legislation in the southern United States, combined with fewer job prospects in the combined with fewer job prospects in the US may have forced many Mexicans to US may have forced many Mexicans to come back home.come back home.
Migration and border issuesMigration and border issues
The net zero migration rate between Mexico and the United The net zero migration rate between Mexico and the United States does not mean that Mexican migrants have not States does not mean that Mexican migrants have not crossed to the United States between 2011 and 2012. crossed to the United States between 2011 and 2012.
The decrease in net Mexican migration is the difference The decrease in net Mexican migration is the difference between those who go to the United States and those who between those who go to the United States and those who leave the country and go back to Mexico, a social leave the country and go back to Mexico, a social phenomenon that began five years ago and already has led phenomenon that began five years ago and already has led to the first decline in two decades of the undocumented to the first decline in two decades of the undocumented Mexican population in the United States.Mexican population in the United States.
Migration at Net ZeroMigration at Net Zero
Migration and border issuesMigration and border issues
The reduction of Mexican migration to the The reduction of Mexican migration to the United States is a social phenomenon that is United States is a social phenomenon that is explained by the slow evolution of the U.S. explained by the slow evolution of the U.S. economy during the worst economic crisis in economy during the worst economic crisis in decades, the labor market situation in the decades, the labor market situation in the United States, the deportations of migrants United States, the deportations of migrants and the increase in border enforcement and and the increase in border enforcement and security. Also the growing dangers security. Also the growing dangers associated with illegal border crossings, the associated with illegal border crossings, the long-term decline in Mexico’s birth rates and long-term decline in Mexico’s birth rates and broader economic conditions in Mexico.broader economic conditions in Mexico.
Economic Contribution of Economic Contribution of Mexicans to the U.S. EconomyMexicans to the U.S. Economy
RemittancesRemittances
The increase in remittances were one The increase in remittances were one of the key factors of macroeconomic of the key factors of macroeconomic stability in Mexico, before the stability in Mexico, before the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009.economic crisis of 2008 and 2009.
RemittancesRemittances
Remittances to Baja California, Remittances to Baja California, increased 8.75 percent in the first increased 8.75 percent in the first quarter of 2012, compared to the quarter of 2012, compared to the first quarter of 2011.first quarter of 2011.
Remittances sent to Baja California Remittances sent to Baja California were close to 96.9 million dollars, were close to 96.9 million dollars, representing approximately 17.9 representing approximately 17.9 percent of total remittances sent to percent of total remittances sent to the border states of Mexico. the border states of Mexico.
RemittancesRemittances Remittances sent by migrants to their families in several regions such as Remittances sent by migrants to their families in several regions such as
Baja California, contribute to increase the incomes of the regional economy, Baja California, contribute to increase the incomes of the regional economy, as well as other types of flows such as development aid and foreign direct as well as other types of flows such as development aid and foreign direct investment (FDI).investment (FDI).
With an increase of 8.75% in remittances sent to Baja California during the With an increase of 8.75% in remittances sent to Baja California during the first quarter of 2012, it is clear that remittances have acquired a dimension first quarter of 2012, it is clear that remittances have acquired a dimension that gives them a first-magnitude potential to generate economic growth that gives them a first-magnitude potential to generate economic growth and development in the state. Therefore, the remittances sent mainly from and development in the state. Therefore, the remittances sent mainly from the United States are a particularly attractive area for co-development the United States are a particularly attractive area for co-development projects in Baja California during 2012.projects in Baja California during 2012.
During the first quarter of 2012, remittances from abroad showed an During the first quarter of 2012, remittances from abroad showed an increase nationally of 5.3 percent compared to the same period last year, increase nationally of 5.3 percent compared to the same period last year, according to official figures from the Bank of Mexico.according to official figures from the Bank of Mexico.
Data from the central bank showed that in the January-March period of this Data from the central bank showed that in the January-March period of this year 2012, remittances of Mexicans abroad to their families in Mexico year 2012, remittances of Mexicans abroad to their families in Mexico totaled $ 372 million. totaled $ 372 million.
RemittancesRemittances
Remittances come almost entirely from the U.S., Remittances come almost entirely from the U.S., and remain one of the most important sources of and remain one of the most important sources of foreign income in Mexico.foreign income in Mexico.
Flows to the Mexican economy come from three Flows to the Mexican economy come from three main areas: oil, tourism and remittances from main areas: oil, tourism and remittances from Mexican nationals living abroad. Mexican nationals living abroad.
During 2011, Mexico managed to stay as the third During 2011, Mexico managed to stay as the third recipient of remittances in the world after India recipient of remittances in the world after India and China. and China.
Inflation in July 2012Inflation in July 2012 During 2012, inflation in Mexico During 2012, inflation in Mexico
reached its highest level for a month reached its highest level for a month of July since 2002. of July since 2002.
Inflation in 2012Inflation in 2012
Inflation in Mexico is above Inflation in Mexico is above the inflation target set by the the inflation target set by the Bank of Mexico of 3% plus 1%.Bank of Mexico of 3% plus 1%.
Inflation has increased in Inflation has increased in Mexico due to the increase in Mexico due to the increase in the price of eggs and other the price of eggs and other food products and also food products and also because of the increase in because of the increase in energy prices.energy prices.
Gas Prices in Mexico and the United States
Mexico’s Energy and the Economy in 2012
Moreover, a decline in crude production due to under investment by the Mexican state oil firm Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and a weak non-oil tax base are expected to draw funds away from public investment.
New oil fields in the Gulf of New oil fields in the Gulf of MexicoMexico
The discovery of a new oil field in the Gulf of Mexico during 2012, may lead to an increase in crude production in Mexico in the medium and long term.
International ReservesInternational Reserves
International ReservesInternational Reserves Mexico’s international reserves rose to 161.2 billion in the Mexico’s international reserves rose to 161.2 billion in the
week that ended August 24, 2012, according to official data week that ended August 24, 2012, according to official data by the central bank.by the central bank.
Mexico’s International Reserves are at historic levels in Mexico’s International Reserves are at historic levels in 2012. 2012.
Mexico’s reserves have climbed 13 percent this year, giving Mexico’s reserves have climbed 13 percent this year, giving the central bank greater leeway to intervene in the foreign the central bank greater leeway to intervene in the foreign exchange markets to buy pesos when needed. exchange markets to buy pesos when needed.
International ReservesInternational Reserves
International ReservesInternational Reserves On June 1, the mexican peso reached its weakest level On June 1, the mexican peso reached its weakest level
against the dollar since March 2009 on concerns that against the dollar since March 2009 on concerns that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis would affect global Europe’s sovereign debt crisis would affect global economic growth.economic growth.
Mexico uses dollar auctions to limit daily declines in Mexico uses dollar auctions to limit daily declines in the peso after it tumbled 11 percent against the dollar the peso after it tumbled 11 percent against the dollar in 2011, the most among major Latin American in 2011, the most among major Latin American currencies. currencies.
Since November 2011, the central bank has been Since November 2011, the central bank has been offering $400 million daily at an exchange rate that’s offering $400 million daily at an exchange rate that’s at least 2 percent weaker than the previous day.at least 2 percent weaker than the previous day.
This year, the peso has strengthened 5.7 percent This year, the peso has strengthened 5.7 percent against the dollar. against the dollar.
Dollar vs. PesoDollar vs. Peso
Global Market Volatility
Unfortunately, all of the world’s economies, including the emerging markets, will be affected to a greater or lesser degree by the events in europe, and therefore the challenge is to mitigate the degree of economic and financial impact.
European sovereign debt crisis From late 2009, fears of a
sovereign debt crisis developed among fiscally conservative investors concerning some European states, with the situation becoming particularly tense in early 2010.
This included euro zone members Greece, Ireland and Portugal and also some EU countries outside the area.
European sovereign debt crisis In 2010 the debt crisis was mostly centered on
events in Greece, where the cost of financing government debt was rising. On 2 May 2010, the eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund agreed to a €110 billion loan for Greece, conditional on the implementation of harsh austerity measures. The Greek bail-out was followed by a €85 billion rescue package for Ireland in November, and a €78 billion bail-out for Portugal in May 2011.
This was the first eurozone crisis since its creation in 1999.
The sovereign debt crisis that is unfolding is a fiscal crisis of the western world.
Runaway Debt in Europe
Public Debt as Percent of GDP
Unemployment in the Euro Zone and Unemployment in the Euro Zone and the United Statesthe United States
Opportunities in Emerging Markets
Opportunities in Emerging Markets
Mexico’s Economic Growth in 2013
Mexico should approve the structural reforms to boost the country’s economic growth and development.
A new labor reform is underway. Mexico has the need for a second
generation energy reform, a fiscal reform and a competitiveness reform.
Baja California and San Diego Trans-Border Economics.Baja California and San Diego Trans-Border Economics.
The San Diego Tijuana Transborder EconomyThe San Diego Tijuana Transborder Economy
Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Ph.D.Ph.D.
Professor of International Economics at Colefand Distinguished ResearcherNational Council of Science and Technology
Friday, November 16, 2012, at the Westgate Hotel, San Diego. Vital Issues and Global Opportunities for the2013 Economy of our Bi-National Region.
