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1E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Prof. Dr. Ing. Enrique Puliafito
"Urban ecology: linking carbon emissions andair quality"
Universidad Tecnológica Nacionaland Research member of CONICET, Argentina
Universidad Tecnológica Nacionaland Research member of CONICET, Argentina
First International Conference onCarbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels: Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues
Global Carbon ProjectMexico City, September 4-8, 2006
First International Conference onCarbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels: Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues
Global Carbon ProjectMexico City, September 4-8, 2006
2E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Urban model approaches
1. TOP-DOWNPOPULATION DATA CONSUMPTION SURVEYS, SOURCE-DESTINY CENSUSEMISSION FACTORS, FUEL CONSUMPTION, ETC-USEFUL FOR ANNUAL MEAN VALUES AND LONG TERM
TRENDS
2. BOTTOM –UPINTRACITY DETAILED STUDIES IN SITU MEASUREMENTSSHORT TERMED VARIATIONSSMALL SPATIAL SCALES
3. MATERIAL FLUX ANALYSISLOOK FOR PERFORMANCE INDICATORSINTERCITY COMPARISON
3E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Top-down: demographic aspectsDemographic aspects Units /years 1970 1980 1990 2000
Pop. Nation Inhab. 23,364,000 27,949,480 32,615,528 36,260,130Pop. growth Nation %/Ann. 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% 1.10%Urban Pop. in city Mendoza Inhab. 456,794 618,702 778,972 902,539Population growth, city %/Ann. 3.50% 2.60% 1.60%Urban % to national pop. % 2.00% 2.20% 2.40% 2.50%Economic aspectsGDP Nation constant 1990 Mill. U$S 122,811 158,046 141,346 213,758GDP of the city Mill. U$S 2,564 3,471 3,181 4,870% City in GDP Province % 58 61 62 64GDP per capita of the city U$S 5,614 5,610 4,084 5,396Income distribution (city level) U$S 468 467 340 458Urban aspectsUrban density in the city Inhab. / Km2 1,893 2,252 2,577 2,768
Urbanized area Km2 317 336 357 376Rate of urbanization (decade) Km2/ann. 3 3.5 4.8
4E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006Source: Dirección de Medios y Vías de Transporte, Mendoza
Transport data: Origin-destiny survey 1998
35%
1%
1%
0%
1%
25%
15%
3%
7% 8% 4%
Public Bus (diesel)Trolley bus (elect)Taxi (diesel-GNC)Corporative BusSchool BusPrivate CarShare private car rideMotorcycleBicycleWalk > 1kmOther
Daily trips in Mendoza
100% : 1,500,000 trips
5E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Fuel consumption
Source: Secretaría de Energía de la Nación
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
NCG Thous. m3 MC Thous. lt ME Thous. lt JF Thous. lt GO Thous. lt EE MWh
AutoBusesAirplaneFreight
6E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Energyconsumption
16%
68%
10% 6%Oil productsNatural gasElectricityCoal
Energy consumption by fuel
Sector TJ % TJ % TJ %Energy production 15133 34.20% 17540 36.20% 17385 34.00%Residential 5022 11.40% 6970 14.40% 9676 18.90%Rural 1293 2.90% 1198 2.50% 1307 2.60%Industry 8812 19.90% 8320 17.20% 6051 11.80%Transport 12978 29.30% 12838 26.50% 14143 27.70%Service 982 2.20% 1569 3.20% 2527 4.90%Total 44219 100.00% 48435 100.00% 51089 100.00%
Year 1980 1990 2000
7E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
CO
2 (tn
)
198019902000
1980 1,180 299 95 668 973 551990 1,342 404 88 628 953 862000 1,355 576 96 459 1,061 142
Energy own Residential Rural Industry Transport Service
CO2 emissions by sector
8E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Annual emissions thousands of tns
Gas / year 1980 1990 2000CO2 974 953 1,060CO 65 64 71NOx 5.2 5.1 5.7CH4 1.95 1.91 2.11
Calculated annual fuel consumption (mobile sources), using emission factors (g/litres o g/Joule)
9E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Bottom-up
For each street segment one needs to assign
N: vehicle fleet
e: Pollutant and GHG emission factors (g/km),
l . Street length
E: Total emission g/h
leNE ××=∑ ∑ ∑ ⎥
⎦
⎤⎢⎣
⎡⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛××=
k ij
m
mi imNvkme
plkimE ),(),,(
100),,(
10E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Bottom-up
For each street segment it is necessary to determine the traffic flow and velocity
)/)1exp(()(),()/)1exp(()(),(
0
0
BdjNjiNAdjVjiV
−=−=
)(0
)(0
),()()(
),()()(jD
HCHC
jCCOCO
jiVjEiE
jiVjEiE
×=
×=
The emission factors depend on vehicular activity, speed, fuel type, etc:
11E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
CO en g/s AV. SAN MARTIN 1C0802
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0 50 100 150 200 250 300TIEMPO (s)
CO
(g/s
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
VELO
CID
AD (k
m/h
)
CO g/s velocidad
Measurements of vehicular emissions
13E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Comparison and calibration
Emission Tn/year Top-down Bottom-up Dif %CO GV 30,908 33,319 7.80%HC GV 5,099 4,293 -15.80%
14E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Air quality estimation and measurements
1) Organize the vehicular emissions in a griddedpattern
2) Add industrial sources
3) Include residential sources…
Apply a gaussian dispersion model
In our case study: 20.000 cells 350 x 350 m
Display results
15E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Griddedemissionpatterns
forMendoza
Annual mean values of CO frommobile sources
16E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
DAILY PRESSURE 1990-1998
910
920
930
940
950
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
DAY OF YEAR
PRES
S. (m
bar)
Presmediasim
DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURES 1990-1998
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360
DAY OF YEAR
TEM
P. (°
C)
Temppromediosim
Local meteorology
19E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Pollutantmeasurements
Media diaria material particulado, Mendoza 1987-1998
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Año
MP
(ug/
m3)
Medias diarias óxidos de nitrógenos, Mendoza, 1987-1998
0
50
100
150
200
250
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Año
NO
x (u
g/m
3)
Datos: Dirección de Control Ambiental, MAOP, Mendoza
Air qualitymonitoring
20E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Mendoza, O3, NOx and CO Sep 1998
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
7-9-980.00
7-9-986.00
7-9-9812.00
7-9-9818.00
8-9-980.00
8-9-986.00
8-9-9812.00
8-9-9818.00
9-9-980.00
9-9-986.00
9-9-9812.00
9-9-9818.00
10-9-980.00
DAY AND HOUR
NO
x an
d O
3 ug
/m3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
CO
(ppm
)
NOxOzoneCO
Variación diaria típica de contaminantes en Benegas, (2/10/1998)
0
50
100
150
200
250
0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 0:00Hora del día
NO /
NOx
/ O3
(ppb
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Rad
. (W
/m2)
CO
x100
(ppm
)
NO ppb NOx ppb Ozono ppbCO x 100 ppm Radia W/m2
Continuos measurements
Of pollutants
Air qualitymonitoring
21E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Modelling industrial sourcesParticulate matter Nitrogen oxides
22E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Material flux analysis: perfomance indicators
STORAGE / ACCUMULATION
Domestic extractions
External hidden flux
Imports Exports
processed domestic outputsemissions to air, water, ...
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
Hidden domestic flux
DMI
TDO
Water, air supply Water vapor
ECONOMICPROCESS
Hidden domestic flux
23E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006
Conclusions
• Urban air quality and GHG emissions• Have many common sources,
industry, energy gen., transport, residential, etc….
• Emission modeling using top-down and bottom up approaches…
• Modelling may help and show opportunities to reduce both air pollutant and GHG emissions