Presidential Primaries: pt 2 Themes What makes a frontrunner (before any votes cast)? Where do media expectations come from? Why so much volatility in GOP polls How it works in 2012 About 2286 delegates at stake (R) An odd sequence of events: IA (1/3), NH (1/10), SC (1/21), Fl (1/31), NV (2/4), ME (2/4*), CO & MN (2/7), AZ & MI (2/28), WA (3/3); 10 states on 3/10, etc. Proportional allocation of delegates if before 4/1 Results from first event have consequences for subsequent events How it worked in 2008 About 4200 delegates at stake (D) An odd sequence of events: IA (1/3), NH (1/8), MI (1/15), NV (1/19), SC (1/26), Fl (1/29), 23 states on 2/5/2008 WA on 2/9 (w/ 2 other states) 2012 Nomination Schedule (R) State # delegates % of total IA % NH 12*0.52% SC 25* 1.09% NV % FL 50* 2.18% ME % CO & MN % AZ & MI 59*2.58% WA (3/3) % March % 34% of delegates awarded by March 2012 GOP Nomination Super Tuesday less super AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA Which candidate advantaged? PR until April 1 Harder for frontrunner to deliver knockout blow 2008 Nomination Schedule (D) State # delegates % of total IA % NV 25.59% NH 22.52% SC % FL (1/29) % 23 states on 2/ % WA on 2/ % LA, NE, VI (2/9) % 61% of delegates awarded by Feb Primary campaigns Concentrate resources on early states Visits, spending, ads Hope for momentum; force others out early See NYT map How it works Frontloading Early wins for frontrunner IA, NH, done by Super Tuesday Momentum & inevitability or.... no clear winner Party Establishment advantage PLEOs, endorsements (168 GOP PLEOs, 7%) Funding Most money = winner How it was supposed to work frontrunners H. R. Clinton led national polls Oct 06 - Feb 08 led IA polls Aug - Dec 07 Giuliani Led national polls 2007 Romney led in IA McCain never more than 20% until Jan How it was supposed to work frontrunner? Trump (26% April 11) Romney (25% June ) Bachman (27% IA Aug) Perry (32% Sept) Cain (26% Oct.) Gingrich (35% Dec.) Paul (25% IA Dec.) Romney (26% today) Iowa 2012 Romney24.5 Santorum24.5 Paul21.4 Gingrich13.3 Perry 10.3 Bachman 5.0 Huntsman 0.6 What Influence of Iowa & NH? Since Carter (1976) More visits to IA More time in IA More spending in IA More media in IA same w/ NH Greater importance of IA? 2011 Straw poll 2007 Straw poll Sam Brownback, Tommy Thompson, Huckabee Dan Quayle 1999 Why Iowa & New Hampshire Why do these states go first? National party rule, tradition, stupidity Why do so many candidates spend so much time there? Momentum, momentum, momentum Remember this guy? Frontrunner in national polls 2003 Moved to New Hampshire 81% name ID 2nd place in early NH polls Ignored Iowa Remember this guy? Frontrunner in national polls 2003 Moved to New Hampshire 81% name ID 2nd place in early NH polls Ignored Iowa How about this guy? John Edwards Never considered a frontrunner pre-04 50% of Dems never heard of him in 2003 Second place in IA 2004 (Dems dont report votes). Or this guy? Led some national polls in 2003 Fundraising leader = major expectations Third place in IA The Scream Stick a fork in it The Scream People in NH reported seeing scream at least 11 times prior to voting in their primary Fox News version Crowd version Opinion in Iowa, Jan 5-Feb 14-Mar 29-Apr 12-May 6-Jun 2-Jul 3-Aug 29-Aug 14-Sep 15-Oct23-Oct31-Oct 9-Nov 24-Nov 19-Dec 6-Jan 19-Jan date ed gep kerry dean Jan 5-Feb 14-Mar 29-Apr 12-May 6-Jun 2-Jul 3-Aug 29-Aug 14-Sep 15-Oct23-Oct31-Oct 9-Nov 24-Nov 19-Dec 6-Jan 19-Jan date How Does it Play in the Media: Dean s Stunning Setback. Iowa, Failed frontrunner, 2008 Mitt Romney Spent $85K p day on TV in 2007 Spent $2.5 m on TV for IA straw poll Spent another $2.4 m on mail, other ads Won Aug 07 IA straw poll Earned media, earned high expectations GOP trends IA never gots Romney traction nationally He lead in IA polls for months in 2007 Lost IA to a guy w/ a funny Youtube ad 34% H, 25% R, 13% Mc End of Romney 08 Early Momentum Many campaigns believe that performance in early events determines their fate Performance in early events defined as much by reality, as by interpretation IA, NH, and Expectations New Hampshire 1972 Ed Muskie 46% George McGovern37% Interpretation Muskie cried IA, NH, and Expectations Iowa, 1976 Jimmy Carter second at 27%; B. Bayh 13% lost to Uncommitted (37%) Interprentation: Carter Defeats Bayh 2 - 1 NYT IA, NH, and Expectations Iowa, 1988 Dick Gephart 31% Paul Simon 27% Mike Dukakis 22% Interpretation: Gephart & Simon locals, expected to do well Dukakis strong showing IA, NH and expectations Iowa 1984, 1988, NH 1996 Hart (D) 16% in IA 1984 Robertson (R) 25% in IA 1988 (2nd) Buchanan (R) 23% in NH 1996 (2nd, Dole 26%) Interpretation Hart scores upset....32% behind Mondale, beat McGovern strong second in surprise NYT IA, NH & Expectations 1992, NH Reality Paul Tsongas 33% Bill Clinton 24 % Bob Kerry 11 % Interpretation Big win for Clinton, the comeback kid Tsongas from MA, expected to do well, Clinton expected to do poorly IA, NH & Expectations NH 2004 Kerry 39% Dean 26% Clark 13 % Edwards 12 % Interpretation two candidate race: Kerry v. Edwards Dean was expected to do better, Clark won in states in wrong time zone Media influence & expectations Basis of initial expectations standing in early polls fundraising Beating early expectations Big shift in attention (deserved?) Failing to meet expectations Big drop in attention Media influence & expectations How is the 2012 result being interpreted by media What were expectations? Who beat expectations? Who gets most media bounce? Who failed to meet expectations? Beating expectations (Media shift) Hart % Reagan % Clinton % Buchanan28% Carter % Huckabee % Robertson % Obama % Media Shift, 2012 after IA Romney33% pre, 37% post Paul20% pre, 17% post Gingrich20% pre, 11% post Perry9% pre, 7% post Bachman7% pre, 3% post Santorum9% pre, 21% post Huntsman2% pre, 2% post Lessons from 2008 Early frontrunners not always strong Polls capture name ID Dem process = real danger of no clear winner Frontloading doesnt help frontrunners Instant fundraising now possible (Internet) Lessons from 2008 Could Obama have won w/o Iowa? 4 days between IA and NH Could Huckabee have been noticed w/o Iowa Could Obama have won w/o the Internet? Lessons from 2008 Sequence matters IA, NH matter....too much? The schedule matters ? What if NV went first? NY? WA? What reforms? Earliest polls for 2012 The polls: Feb, April, Dec 10 Palin 25%, 15%, 17% Huck 32%, 24%, 18% Rom 21%, 20%, 19% Looking back to 2007 Dem, Jan 07, 1 year before IA Clinton 34% Obama 18% Edwards 15% Gore 10% Kerry 5% Bidden 3% GOP, Jan 07 1 year before IA Giuliani 32% McCain 26% Gingrich 9% Romney 7% Pataki 3% Huckabee 1% Reforms Regional Primaries National primary What if everyone voted on Feb 5th 2008 Closed primaries Rush Limbaugh, Operation Chaos Reforms Regional primary how implement? who goes first? Delaware Plan 10 smallest states first 10 next largest states, etc.