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Presentation To:
HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force
December 17, 2013
HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasts
Presentation By
Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.
1 TEMS, Inc.
COMPASS™ Forecasting Process Base Year
Socio- Economics
Demand Model
Calibration
•Total Demand •Induced Demand •Modal Split
Base Year Matrix
Transportation Strategies
Travel Demand
Model Run
Financial Analysis
User Benefit
Analysis
Economic Rent
Analysis
Transport Network
Origin- Destination
Data
Trip Matrices
Stated Preference
Survey
Economic Scenarios
Forecast Year Trip Matrices
Revenue Analysis
Data Requirement
Model System Development
Evaluation Process
Forecasting Assumptions
Travel Demand Forecasts
2 TEMS, Inc.
Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecast Study Area Zone System State
Number of Zones
Connecticut 5 Delaware 1
District of Columbia 10 Maryland 70
Massachusetts 7 New Jersey 16 New York 9
North Carolina 43 Pennsylvania 5 Rhode Island 5
Virginia 162 Total Number of
Zones 333
PETERSBURG JAMES CITY GLOUCESTER COUNTY
POQUOSON
WILLIAMSBURG
NEWPORT NEWS
HAMPTON
ISLE OF WIGHT NORFOLK PORTSMOUTH
VIRGINIA BEACH SUFFOLK
CHESAPEAKE
YORK COUNTY
3 TEMS, Inc.
Hampton Roads Region Zones Zoom-In
NEWPORT NEWS
HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA BEACH
CHESAPEAKE
SUFFOLK
NORFOLK
HAMPTON
PORTSMOUTH
ISLE OFWIGHT
POQUOSON
YORK COUNTY
GLOUCESTER COUNTY
WILLIAMSBURG
JAMES CITY COUNTY
4 TEMS, Inc.
Sources for Socioeconomic Database U.S. Census Bureau
Hampton Roads Planning District Commission
Richmond Regional Planning District Commission
Crater Planning District Commission
Virginia Employment Commission
Metropolitan Washington County of Governments
Baltimore Metropolitan Council
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.
5 TEMS, Inc.
Socioeconomic Growth Projection for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte
6 TEMS, Inc.
Attributes Included in COMPASS™ Transportation Networks
Public Modes Auto
Time
In-Vehicle Time Travel Time
Access/Egress Time Congestion Delay
Transfer Time
Wait Time
Costs Fare Operating Costs*
Access/Egress Costs Tolls*
Parking Cost Parking Costs*
Schedule Service Frequency
* Divided by occupancy
7 TEMS, Inc.
Sources of Transportation Networks Transportation networks were based on: State and Local Departments of Transportation
highway databases National Highway System (NHS) database Amtrak schedules Airline schedules The ten percent sample of airline tickets Greyhound schedules Megabus schedules
8 TEMS, Inc.
COMPASS™ Networks
The COMPASS™ Networks include the following networks from Charlotte, NC to Boston, MA (including the Hampton Roads area, Richmond, VA, Washington, DC, and New York, NY): Intercity Highway Passenger Rail Air Intercity Bus
9 TEMS, Inc.
Sources of Base Year Trip Database The Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) Air Ticket
Database T-100 Air Market and Segment Database Greyhound and Megabus Schedules Previous travel origin-destination surveys State department of transportation (Virginia, Maryland,
Washington, DC, North Carolina, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts) highway traffic volume Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data
Amtrak passenger rail ridership data Amtrak station volume data TEMS 2012 Virginia Travel Survey
10 TEMS, Inc.
Base Year 2012 Annual Intercity Travel Market for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte
Person Trips by Mode (million) Travel Market Share by Mode
Total Base Year 2012 Annual Person Trips: 58.97 Million
11 TEMS, Inc.
Values of Time, Frequency, and Access Time VOT (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Car Rail Business $44.45 $11.07 $19.42 $22.51 Commuter - $7.15 $14.80 $18.80 Social $31.76 $8.54 $16.88 $17.88
VOF (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $28.81 $7.33 $18.58 Commuter $6.50 $13.67 Social $26.28 $7.75 $16.13
VOA (2012 $/Hour) Air Bus Rail Business $62.91 - $42.73 Commuter - $8.89 $29.15 Social $47.94 $10.77 $37.66
Intercity value of time is larger than intraurban value of time due to longer trip length, this explains why commuters have lower value of time, which have more intraurban trips than other trip purposes
12 TEMS, Inc.
Future Crude Oil Price Projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/
*EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated
13 TEMS, Inc.
Future Gasoline Price Projections
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/
*EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated
14 TEMS, Inc.
Automobile Highway Fuel Efficiency Projections
Estimated based on Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) historical automobile highway energy intensities data
15 TEMS, Inc.
Gasoline Price Projections Adjusted by Fuel Efficiency Improvement
*EIA projections go to 2040, projections beyond 2040 were extrapolated
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) http://www.eia.doe.gov/
16 TEMS, Inc.
Highway Congestion Estimates
2012 Travel Time 2025 Estimated
Travel Time Norfolk, VA - Richmond, VA 1Hour 40Min 1Hour 55Min Norfolk, VA - Petersburg, VA 1Hour 35Min 1Hour 43Min
Corridor Highway Travel Time Projection
17 TEMS, Inc.
COMPASS™ Hierarchical Travel Demand Model Structure
Total Demand
Public Modes Auto
Air Surface Modes
Rail Bus
LEVEL 4
LEVEL 3
LEVEL 2
Southside/Norfolk Route
Peninsula Route LEVEL 1
18 TEMS, Inc.
Travel Utility Estimation Process
Step 2: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus
Rail:
)]exp()[exp( PeninsulaRailSouthRailRailRailRail UULnU ++= βα
Bus: BusBusBus GCU β=
Step 4: Compute Utilities for Public and Auto
Step 5: Compute Total Utility
Public:
)]exp()[exp( AirSurfacePublicPublicPublic UULnU ++= βα
Auto: AutoAutoAuto GCU β=
Total:
)]exp()[exp( PublicAutoTotal UULnU +=
Reference:
Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application to Travel Demand, Moshe Ben-Akiva and Steven R. Lerman, The MIT Press 1987
Step 3: Compute Utilities for Surface and Air
Surface:
Air: AirAirAir GCU β=)]exp()[exp( BusRailSurfaceSurfaceSurface UULnU ++= βα
Rail Southside/Norfolk Route: SouthRailSouthRailSouthRailSouthRail GCU βα +=
Rail Peninsula Route: PeninsulaRailPeninsulaRailPeninsulaRail GCU β=
Step 1: Compute Utilities for Rail and Bus
19 TEMS, Inc.
Study Area Travel Market Forecast – Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte
Average annual travel demand growth: 0.9%
20 TEMS, Inc.
130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast-Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte
Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips
Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct
21 TEMS, Inc.
220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Ridership Forecast-Annual Person Trips for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte
Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips
Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct
22 TEMS, Inc.
130 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast-Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte
Southside/Norfolk Route has 13 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included
Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct
23 TEMS, Inc.
220 MPH High-Speed Passenger Rail Revenue Forecast-Annual Revenue for the Whole Study Area that Extends from Boston to Charlotte
Southside/Norfolk Route has 22 daily roundtrips, Peninsula Route has three daily roundtrips Only revenues within the Hampton Roads-Washington Corridor are included
Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct
24 TEMS, Inc.
Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast –Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025
130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR
25 TEMS, Inc.
Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast –Northern Option 2 via Hopewell 2025
130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR
26 TEMS, Inc.
Intercity Travel Market Share Forecast – Option 3 Richmond Direct 2025
130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR
27 TEMS, Inc.
Sources of HSR Trips- Southern Option 1 via Petersburg 2025 130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR
Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand
Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand
28 TEMS, Inc.
Sources of HSR Trips- Northern Option 2 via Hopewell 2025
130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR
Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand
Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand
29 TEMS, Inc.
Sources of HSR Trips- Option 3 Richmond Direct 2025
130 MPH HSR 220 MPH HSR
Natural Growth refers to changes in travel demand related to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand
Induced Demand refers to changes in travel demand related to improvements in a transportation system, as opposed to changes in socioeconomic factors that contribute to growth in demand
30 TEMS, Inc.
2025 Annual Station Volumes – 130 MPH
Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct
31 TEMS, Inc.
2025 Annual Station Volumes – 220 MPH
Southern Option 1 via Petersburg Northern Option 2 via Hopewell Option 3 Richmond Direct
32 TEMS, Inc.
2025 Annual Segment Loadings – 130 MPH
Southern Option 1 via Petersburg
Northern Option 2 via Hopewell
Option 3 Richmond Direct
33 TEMS, Inc.
2025 Annual Segment Loadings – 220 MPH
Southern Option 1 via Petersburg
Northern Option 2 via Hopewell
Option 3 Richmond Direct
34 TEMS, Inc.
Comparison to AECOM 2009 Study Option 1
Time Daily Round
Trips
2025 Annual Hampton Road-Based Rail Trips
(million)
2025 Annual Hampton Road-
Based Rail Revenue (million $)
AECOM Option 1 90 MPH 1:35 6 1.11 $69.12 TEMS Southern Option via Petersburg Assuming AECOM Option 1 Levels of Service 1:35 6 1.16 $76.7
Source: Richmond/Hampton Roads Passenger Rail Project Alternative Analysis and Tier 1 Environmental Impact Statement by AECOM, 2009
36 TEMS, Inc.
Apples-to-Apples Comparison to Amtrak NEC Master Plan and Next-Gen HSR (Internal Intercity Trips Only)
2025 Hampton
Roads-Washington Corridor - 130 MPH
2025 Hampton Roads-
Washington Corridor - 220
MPH
2030 NEC Master Plan (Constrained
Acela)
2030 NEC Next-Gen HSR (220
MPH)
2030 NEC Master Plan
NYC-DC Corridor
(Constrained Acela)
2030 NEC Next-Gen
HSR NYC-DC Corridor (220
MPH)
Rail Trip Rate (trips per 10,000 person per day) 6.83 10.29 14.18 16.64 18.86 22.19
38 TEMS, Inc.
Stated Preference Survey Deployment
On-Site Survey Team Actual Deployment & Online Survey
TEMS conducted the stated preference survey in order to Update Value of Time (VOT), Value of Frequency (VOF), and Value of
Access/Egress (VOA) in the study area Update the modal choice model and total demand model for the passenger rail
ridership and revenue forecasts
39 TEMS, Inc.
Stated Preference Survey Counts
Actual Survey Counts
Location Field & Online Count (Actual)
DMV 1,377
Airport 573
Amtrak 690
Bus 96
TOTAL 2,736
TOTAL of VOT’s, VOF’s & VOA’s for all modes = 3,792
Presentation To
HRTPO Passenger Rail Task Force
December 17, 2013
HRTPO Norfolk-Richmond Passenger Rail Operations Plan
and Costs
Presentation By
Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc.
1 TEMS, Inc.
# Tasks1 Project Management
2 Rail Alternatives
3 Ridership and Revenue
- Forecasts Sensitivity Analysis
4 Rail Service Analysis
5 Operating and Capital Costs
6 Financial and Economic Analysis
- Financial
- Economic
7 Environmental Scan
8 Implementation Plan
9 Report
MEETINGSPRESENTATIONSMONTHLY PROGRESS REPORTS
M6M3 M4M2 M12M7M5 M8M1 M10 M11M9
PHASE 2B WORK PLAN
5 TEMS, Inc.
. . . AS A RESULT, IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT HAMPTON ROADS IS MORE FUNCTIONALLY DEPENDENT ON THE NEC THAN ON SEHSR
The Hampton Roads Corridor has been divided into three segments for analysis purposes: 1. Washington DC to Richmond 2. Richmond to Newport News - “Peninsula” 3. Richmond to Norfolk - “Southside”
6 TEMS, Inc.
ORIGINALLY, DEVELOPMENT “STEPS” WERE DEFINED FOR BOTH THE PENINSULA AND SOUTH SIDE ROUTES
Steps Route Max Speed No. of Trains Infrastructure
Station
I-64/CSXT 79 mph 2 Shared Track Schedule Enhancement
Main Street Newport News
(existing)
Step 1 Route 460/
Norfolk Southern 79 mph 1-3 Shared Track NS
Staples Mill Only Norfolk
I-64/CSXT
79 mph 3 Shared Track Main Street
Newport News (existing)
Step 2 (DEIS Alt 1)
Route 460/ Norfolk Southern 79-90 mph 4-6 Shared Track
V Line Main Street Bowers Hill
I-64/CSXT 90 mph 4-6 Shared Track Main Street
Newport News Downtown/Airport Step 3
Route 460/ Norfolk Southern
110 mph 8-12 Dedicated Track
V Line Main Street Bowers Hill
I-64/CSXT
110 mph 6-9 Dedicated Track Main Street
Newport News Downtown/Airport Step 4
Route 460/ Norfolk Southern
150 mph 12-16 Dedicated Electric Track
V Line Main Street Bowers Hill
DRPT Focus
HRTPO Focus
*
*Note: Norfolk Southern (NS) does not permit passenger train maximum authorized speed in excess of 79-mph on any NS track. Where the V-line (former Virginian Railway) has existing freight services, maximum authorized speed for passenger trains will be 79-mph. Along the Algren – Kenyon portion of the V-line (over which NS freight rail service has been formally abandoned), passenger rail planners may consider speeds above 79-mph.
7 TEMS, Inc.
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
79-mph 79-mph 79-mph 90-mph 90-mph 110-mph 110-mph 150-mph
Washington to Richmond
2:451
2:152
2:203
2:05
2:20
1:30
1:30
1:05
Richmond to Norfolk
1:48
1:485
1:10
0:55
Richmond to Newport News
1:25
1:25
1:13
0:52 Total 4:10 4:03 3:45 3:53 3:33 2:40 2:22 2:004
1 2:45 current Amtrak time to Main Street, 1:35 to Newport News 2 2:15 current Amtrak time to Staples Mill Road Station only, does not go to Main Street 3 2:20 to Main Street, train operates at 90 mph north of Richmond 4 2:00 proposed schedule objective for HSR electric service 5 1:48 at 79-mph Richmond to Norfolk
SCHEDULES WERE DEVELOPED FOR THE WHOLE CORRIDOR FROM HAMPTON ROADS TO WASHINGTON D.C.
Source: Exhibit B-6, Progress Report B, page B-13, 2010 study
8 TEMS, Inc.
… BUT, RECENTLY THE FOCUS HAS BEEN ON REFINING PLAN FOR THE SOUTHSIDE SERVICE TO NORFOLK
Steps Route Max Speed No. of Trains Infrastructure Station
Step 3 Norfolk-Richmond along Route 460 110 mph 8-12 Dedicated Track
V Line Main Street Bowers Hill
Step 4 Norfolk-Richmond along Route 460 150 mph+ 12-16 Dedicated Electric
Track V Line Main Street Bowers Hill
Focus of the Study
9 TEMS, Inc.
Electric HST 160-220 mph
Business Model of the MWRRS Speeds up to 130-mph on
dedicated high speed tracks; Tier I Compliant trains for Shared
tracks in urban areas Low Center of Gravity Diesel
Locomotives Passive Tilting Existing +New Alignment
Business Model of California HSR Speeds up to 220-mph on
dedicated high speed tracks; Tier I Compliant trains for Shared
tracks in urban areas Low Center of Gravity Electric
Locomotives Passive Tilting Existing +New Alignment
Diesel HrST 90-130 mph
TRAIN TECHNOLOGY HAS ADVANCED SINCE 2010! Because of “Alternative Tier 1 Compliance,” High Speed 220-mph electric trains can now share freight tracks at speeds under 125-mph –the California “Blended Operations” model has also been adopted by Amtrak for the NEC. There is now only a single generic High Speed electric train and it can operate at 220-mph. The diesel train can operate up to 130-mph. NS policy prohibits shared operations above 79-mph, and a dedicated track could support 130-mph, so it makes sense to evaluate the diesel operation at that speed.
10 TEMS, Inc.
HAMPTON ROADS TO WASHINGTON D.C. RAIL SERVICE ASSUMPTIONS*
Washington D.C. to Richmond, 109 miles (Current Time 2:00, 79 mph): • Assumes a new conceptual greenfield due to capacity and geometric
limitation of existing ROW • 130-mph diesel could easily achieve 1:30 on a greenfield – an aggressive tilt
train could achieve this time on the existing CSX alignment • 220-mph electric could achieve 0:55 based on a high quality greenfield from
Lorton to Richmond Richmond to Norfolk, 97-105 miles (Current Time 2:00, 79 mph):
• 13 daily round trips at 130-mph; 1:00 to 1:10 schedule times • 22 daily round trips at 220-mph; 0:45 to 0:55 schedule times
Richmond to Newport News, 75 miles (Current Time 1:25, 79 mph): • 3 daily round trips at 79-mph; 1:25 schedule time
OVERALL – Cut Norfolk-Washington DC Time in half: 4 hours to 2 hours, 220 mph *Source: Proposed Detailed Operating Schedules follow in this presentation
12 TEMS, Inc.
SOUTHSIDE ROUTE OPTIONS “COVER ALL THE BASES” Route Options Under Analysis • Existing Rail • Northern and Southern Greenfields,
via Petersburg and Hopewell • Richmond Direct Greenfield Speeds Under Analysis • 130-mph and 220-mph
13 TEMS, Inc.
COMMON SEGMENTS TO ALL OPTIONS
Richmond Station All High Speed Options (either East Shore or I-295) approach from
the East on an elevated Viaduct. Common Segment: Fulton Gas Works to Main Street Station
Bowers Hill to Norfolk Harbor Park
Common Segment: “V” Line and NS Main into downtown Norfolk
15 TEMS, Inc.
ROUTE OPTION 1 – VIA PETERSBURG
Staples Mills
Richmond-Main St.
Williamsburg
Newport News-Airport
Newport News-Amtrak
Newport News-Downtown
Norfolk Bowers Hill
Suffolk
Hopewell-Fort Lee
Petersburg-Ettrick
16 TEMS, Inc.
ROUTE OPTION 2 - VIA HOPEWELL
Staples Mills
Richmond-Main St.
Williamsburg
Newport News-Airport
Newport News-Amtrak Newport News-Downtown
Norfolk
Bowers Hill
Suffolk
Hopewell-Fort Lee
Petersburg-Ettrick
17 TEMS, Inc.
ROUTE OPTION 3 - RICHMOND DIRECT
Staples Mills
Richmond-Main St.
Williamsburg
Newport News-Airport
Newport News-Amtrak Newport News-Downtown
Norfolk
Bowers Hill
Suffolk
Hopewell-Fort Lee
Petersburg-Ettrick
19 TEMS, Inc.
INTERACTIVE ANALYSIS APPROACH
Methodology for developing an optimized plan –
Using the data that has already been collected in Phase 2A
Service Plan Trains
LOCOMOTION™ Scheduling & Operations
Operating Costs
Market AnalysisCOMPASS™Ridership &
FaresRevenues
InfrastructureTRACKMAN™
Terminal Facilities
Capital Costs
Financial & Economic Feasibility
INPUT INTERACTIVE
ANALYSIS OUTPUT
20 TEMS, Inc.
RICHMOND-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES Part of All Route Options
Station Super
Express Express Local
Richmond Main St 0:00 0:00 0:00
Ashland 0:12
Fredericksburg 0:40 0:45
Quantico 1:08
Alexandria 1:20 1:25 1:35
Washington Union 1:30 1:35 1:45
Station Super
Express Express Local
Richmond Main St 0:00 0:00 0:00
Ashland 0:10
Fredericksburg 0:25 0:30
Quantico 0:45
Alexandria 0:43 0:48 0:58
Washington Union 0:53 0:58 1:08
130-mph Diesel 220-mph Electric
These times are consistent with the Step 4 times of 1:30 and 1:05 for Diesel and Electric options, respectively, from 2010 Progress Report B
The 1:30 Diesel time can be done on the CSX alignment using
aggressive tilt technology. The other times are based on conceptual route options only between Richmond and Washington DC
21 TEMS, Inc.
ROUTE OPTION 1: NORFOLK-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES VIA PETERSBURG
* Allowing 2 minutes for Richmond Station Stop
130-mph Diesel 220-mph Electric
Same time for Southern Greenfield or dedicated NS Option
Station Super
Express Express Local
Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00
Bowers Hill 0:12 0:12 0:12
Suffolk 0:17
Petersburg 0:53 0:58
Richmond Main St 1:04 1:09 1:14
Washington Union 2:36 2:46 3:01
Station Super
Express Express Local
Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00
Bowers Hill 0:10 0:10 0:10
Suffolk 0:15
Petersburg 0:40 0:45
Richmond Main St 0:50 0:55 1:00
Washington Union 1:45 1:55 2:10
22 TEMS, Inc.
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000
Spee
d(m
ph)
Milepost
Maximum Allowable Speed
Maximum Attainable Speed
LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 1: Lorton-Richmond + East Shore + Southern Greenfields – 1:40:36 unimpeded at 220-mph
Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton
Richmond/ Petersburg
Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line
23 TEMS, Inc.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000
Spee
d(m
ph)
Milepost
Maximum Allowable Speed
Maximum Attainable Speed
LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 1: Lorton-Richmond + East Shore + Southern Greenfields – 2:08:25 unimpeded at 130-mph
Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton
Richmond/ Petersburg
Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line
24 TEMS, Inc.
ROUTE OPTION 2: NORFOLK-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES VIA HOPEWELL
* Allowing 2 minutes for Richmond Station Stop
130-mph Diesel 220-mph Electric
Same time for Northern Greenfield or dedicated NS Option
Station Super
Express Express Local
Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00
Bowers Hill 0:12 0:12 0:12
Suffolk 0:17
Hopewell 0:50 0:53
Richmond Main St 1:04 1:09 1:14
Washington Union 2:36 2:46 3:01
Station Super
Express Express Local
Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00
Bowers Hill 0:10 0:10 0:10
Suffolk 0:15
Hopewell 0:37 0:42
Richmond Main St 0:50 0:55 1:00
Washington Union 1:45 1:55 2:10
25 TEMS, Inc.
LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 2: Lorton-Richmond + I-295 + Northern Greenfields – 1:40:30 unimpeded at 220-mph
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000
Spee
d(m
ph)
Milepost
Maximum Allowable Speed
Maximum Attainable Speed
Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton
Richmond/ I-295 / Hopewell
Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line
26 TEMS, Inc.
LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 2: Lorton-Richmond + I-295 + Northern Greenfields – 2:07:19 unimpeded at 130-mph
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000
Spee
d(m
ph)
Milepost
Maximum Allowable Speed
Maximum Attainable Speed
Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton
Richmond/ I-295 / Hopewell
Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line
27 TEMS, Inc.
Station Super
Express Express Local Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00
Bowers Hill 0:10 0:10 0:10 Suffolk 0:15
Richmond Main St 0:43 0:43 0:48 Washington Union 1:38 1:43 1:58
ROUTE OPTION 3: NORFOLK-WASHINGTON SCHEDULE TIMES VIA RICHMOND DIRECT
Station Super
Express Express Local Norfolk 0:00 0:00 0:00
Bowers Hill 0:12 0:12 0:12 Suffolk 0:17
Richmond Main St 0:59 0:59 1:04 Washington Union 2:31 2:36 2:51
* Allowing 2 minutes for Richmond Station Stop
130-mph Diesel 220-mph Electric
These times are consistent with the Step 3 and 4 times of 2:40 and 2:00 for Diesel and Electric options, respectively, from 2010 Progress Report B
Times are based on conceptual route options only between Richmond and
Washington DC
28 TEMS, Inc.
LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 3: Lorton-Richmond + Richmond Direct Greenfields – 1:31:10 unimpeded at 220-mph
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000
Spee
d(m
ph)
Milepost
Maximum Allowable Speed
Maximum Attainable Speed
Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton
Richmond
Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line
29 TEMS, Inc.
LOCOMOTION™ RESULT: WASHINGTON DC TO NORFOLK Alt 3: Lorton-Richmond + Richmond Direct Greenfields – 1:59:57 unimpeded at 130-mph
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000
Spee
d(m
ph)
Milepost
Maximum Allowable Speed
Maximum Attainable Speed
Alexandria Stop; CSX Restrictions to Lorton
Richmond
Suffolk, Bowers Hill stop and the V-Line
30 TEMS, Inc.
SUMMARY OF NORFOLK TO WASHINGTON D.C. HIGH SPEED TRAIN SCHEDULE RESULTS
Stations Super Express Express Local
Norfolk √ √ √ Bowers Hill √ √ √ Suffolk – – √ Petersburg/Hopewell* – √ √ Richmond Main St √ √ √ Ashland – – √ Fredericksburg – √ √ Quantico – – √ Alexandria √ √ √ Washington Union √ √ √
130-mph Total Trains 4 trains 5 trains 4 trains 130-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 2:36 2:46 3:01 130-mph Time Richmond Direct 2:31 2:36 2:51
220-mph Total Trains 6 trains 12 trains 4 trains 220-mph Time via Petersburg/Hopewell 1:45 1:55 2:10 220-mph Time Richmond Direct 1:38 1:43 1:58
* Stations Bypassed by Richmond Direct
31 TEMS, Inc.
SUMMARY OF NORFOLK TO WASHINGTON D.C. HIGH SPEED TRAIN SCHEDULE COMPARISON
The performance of the 130-mph and 220-mph options both depend on the characteristics of the option that is ultimately developed between Richmond and Washington D.C.
• The 130-mph diesel would likely operate between 1:05 and 1:30 • The 220-mph electric would likely operate between 0:55 and 1:30
The schedule times of all four route options are very close. The results of this more detailed assessment support the findings of the earlier 2010 study, Progress Report B.
Petersburg and Hopewell route options have the same times. These route options are 5 minutes slower than Richmond Direct, plus an additional 5 minutes if they add a stop.
This time difference is not enough to drive major differences in ridership between the options. The route selection will likely be made based on cost, environmental factors and route synergies.
33 TEMS, Inc.
OPERATING COST CATEGORIES
Drivers Cost Categories
Train Miles
Equipment Maintenance Energy and Fuel Train and Engine Crews Onboard Service Crews
Passenger Miles
Insurance Liability
Ridership and Revenue
Sales and Marketing
Fixed Cost
Service Administration Track and ROW Maintenance Station Costs
Costs were developed for four rail technologies • 79-mph convention diesel • 130-mph High Speed diesel • 150-mph and 220-mph High Speed electric
34 TEMS, Inc.
SUMMARY OF OPERATING COSTS
Unit Cost
Driver Greenfield 130-mph
diesel
Greenfield 220-mph electric
Equipment Maintenance Train-Miles $12.70 $14.08 Train Crew* Train-Miles $4.92 $4.60 Fuel or Energy* Train-Miles $8.71 $2.80 On Board Services (Labor)* Train-Miles $2.56 $2.41 On Board Services (Goods Sold) * % of OBS
Revenue 50% 50%
Insurance Passenger-Mile 1.4¢ 1.4¢ Track (Shared) Train-Miles over
Shared Track N/A N/A
Track and Electrification (Dedicated) Dedicated Track Miles
$27,924 plus Cyclic Capital
$54,783 plus Cyclic Capital
Operations and Dispatch* Train-Miles 50.8¢ 50.8¢ Stations* Staffed and
Unstaffed Stations $6.45 mill $6.45 mill
Administration and Management (Fixed)* Fixed $14.35 mill $14.35 mill Administration and Management (Call Center: Variable Train-Miles)*
Train-Miles $1.84 $1.84
Administration and Management (Call Center: Variable Riders)
Riders 70.9¢ 70.9¢
Credit Card and Travel Agency Commissions* Percent of Revenue
2.8% 2.8%
Operator Profit Markup Selected (*) Costs 10% 10% *This cost is included in the operator profit 10 percent markup
35 TEMS, Inc.
130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph 130 mph 220 mph
REVENUE
Ticket Revenue $194.73 $330.95 $194.73 $330.95 $190.90 $322.52 $190.90 $322.52 $202.58 $334.25OBS Revenue 8% $15.58 $26.48 $15.58 $26.48 $15.27 $25.80 $15.27 $25.80 $16.21 $26.74
Total Revenue $210.30 $357.43 $210.30 $357.43 $206.17 $348.32 $206.17 $348.32 $218.79 $360.99
COSTSTrain Crew $10.83 $15.67 $10.83 $15.67 $10.71 $15.26 $10.71 $15.26 $11.10 $15.69OBS $13.42 $21.45 $13.42 $21.45 $13.21 $20.90 $13.21 $20.90 $13.88 $21.59Equipment $27.96 $47.95 $27.96 $47.95 $27.65 $46.72 $27.65 $46.72 $28.65 $48.03Fuel $19.57 $8.92 $19.57 $8.92 $19.35 $8.69 $19.35 $8.69 $20.06 $8.94Track $11.95 $23.45 $11.95 $23.45 $11.78 $23.12 $11.78 $23.12 $11.56 $22.68Insurance $7.40 $11.44 $7.40 $11.44 $7.32 $11.15 $7.32 $11.15 $7.58 $11.46Call Ctr Variable $2.65 $3.82 $2.65 $3.82 $2.62 $3.71 $2.62 $3.71 $2.77 $3.94 T-Agent and CC Comm $5.45 $9.27 $5.45 $9.27 $5.35 $9.03 $5.35 $9.03 $5.67 $9.36Stations $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $6.45 $5.91 $5.91Admin and Mgt $18.40 $20.62 $18.40 $20.62 $18.36 $20.46 $18.36 $20.46 $18.50 $20.63Operation & Dispactch $1.09 $1.70 $1.09 $1.70 $1.07 $1.67 $1.07 $1.67 $1.05 $1.64Operator Profit 10% selected items $7.79 $8.79 $7.79 $8.79 $7.71 $8.62 $7.71 $8.62 $7.89 $8.77
Total Cost $132.95 $179.51 $132.95 $179.51 $131.57 $175.77 $131.57 $175.77 $134.63 $178.63
Operating Surplus $77.35 $177.92 $77.35 $177.92 $74.60 $172.55 $74.60 $172.55 $84.16 $182.36
Operating Ratio 1.58 1.99 1.58 1.99 1.57 1.98 1.57 1.98 1.63 2.02
Option 3 - Richmond DirectFinancial 2025(mill. 2012$)
Southern Option 1A - Greenfield
Southern Option 1B - Norfolk Southern
Northern Option 2A - Greenfield
Northern Option 2B - Norfolk Southern
Southern Option 1 - Via Petersburg Northern Option 2 - Via Hopewell
FIRST CUT CONSOLIDATED OPERATING RESULTS