41
Global Equities 10 February 2011 For Professional Use Only Not for public distribution Martin Connaghan, Investment Manager Aberdeen Asset Management Presentation to Citywire Conference

Presentation aberdeen martin connaghan

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

 

Citation preview

Page 1: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

Global Equities

10 February 2011

For Professional Use OnlyNot for public distribution

Martin Connaghan, Investment Manager

Aberdeen Asset Management

Presentation toCitywire Conference

Page 2: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

1

Agenda

• About Aberdeen

• Investment team

• Key points of differentiation

• Investment process

• Current positioning

• Portfolio activity over past 12 months – process in action

• Performance and investment risk

Page 3: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

2

About Aberdeen

• Dedicated asset management company, founded in 1983

• Independently owned and operated, listed since 1991 on the London Stock Exchange

• Expertise across equities/fixed income/property/alternative investment strategies

• Sizeable: €213.9bn under management

• Reach: key investment centres in main time zones:London/Stockholm/Edinburgh; Philadelphia; Singapore; and Sydney

• Service: 30 secondary offices in 23 countries providing global client support

• Institutional client base

• Uniform active equity approach across Group

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Dec 10

Page 4: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

3

To 31 Dec 10

Long-term outperformance

The above is supplemental information and supplements the composite presentations (as provided in the GIPS disclosures)

Total return, gross of fees, EUR

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management

Annualised (%)Product

3.10

23.39

26.49

2 years

0.29

20.14

20.43

1 year

4.243.33-0.24Outperformance

0.38-1.5110.98MSCI World (EUR)

4.621.8210.74Global Equity (EUR)

5 years3 years3 months

Calendar years (%)Product

3.21

-37.24

-34.03

2008

6.14

26.72

32.86

2009

4.976.370.29Outperformance

7.92-1.1820.14MSCI World (EUR)

12.895.1920.43Global Equity (EUR)

200620072010

Page 5: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

4

Global equity team – a true team approach

• Highly experienced and stable

• One integrated team drawing on research capability from regional teams located throughout the world

• FM interdependence and complementary skills mean teams are greater than sum of parts

• Culture of ideas and of challenging them

• Collective decision-making through formal meetings first, but also ‘around the desk’

• Teams operate in an open-plan environment

We cultivate a team, not individual stars

Page 6: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

5

Global equity team

Global equity team utilises research produced by regional equity teams

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Dec 10

Bruce StoutSenior Inv. Manager

Andrew McMenigallSenior Inv. Manager

Samantha FitzpatrickSenior Inv. Manager

Martin ConnaghanInvestment Manager

Gail McCullieSRI Researcher

Cindy RoseHead of SRI Research

Ann DewarSenior Portfolio Analyst

Ella-Kara BrownAsst Inv. Manager

Stephen DochertyHead of Global Equities

Stewart MethvenSenior Inv. Manager

Jill SneddonGlobal Trading Co-ordinator

Jamie GovanSRI Analyst

Jamie CummingSenior Inv. Manager

Fionna RossSRI Analyst

Page 7: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

6

Key points of differentiation

• We are bottom-up stockpickers

• High conviction portfolios; c40 - 60 stocks only

• We don’t own companies we don’t like, regardless of benchmark weight

• Typical average stock position c2%

• Buy-and-hold approach, with low turnover; we are true company stakeholders

• We build diversified portfolios of companies

• Team approach, consensual decision-making, but senior managers have final say

• Investment managers/analyst do their own research

• Risks controlled at stock level – rigorous process discipline and filters

Page 8: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

7

Quality

Pass or fail?

Potential

revisit

Portfolio construction

Monitor

Company visit note

Watchlist/

review

Aberdeen universe

Price

Cheap or expensive?

• Model is default

• Filter for mandate

• Refine weightings

• Compliance checks

Total universeofstocks

• Desk research: pre-screen of candidate companies

• No quantitative filters

• Many stocks eliminated over time or self-excluding due to size/structure

Risk controlsRisk controls

Same process = Common language = Ability to exchange thoughts across regions

Global equity process

Comparativeanalysis

Global

Equity

Buy List

c330 stocks

Regional teams(Pan Europe, Asia Pacific ex Japan, North America, Japan, Emerging Markets)

Global team

Model portfolioc50 stocks

Monitor

Risk checks

Step 1

Step 3Step 2

Watchlist/review

c280 stocks

Regio

nal desk inte

raction

Page 9: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

8

Step 1: regional teams

Quality

Pass or fail?

Potential revisit

Portfolio construction

Monitor

Company visit note

Watchlist/ review

Aberdeen universe

Price

Cheap or

expensive?

• Model is default

• Filter for mandate

• Refine weightings

• Compliance checks

Total universeofstocks

• Desk research: pre-screen of candidate companies

• No quantitative filters

• Many stocks eliminated over time or self-excluding due to size/structure

Risk controls

Page 10: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

9

Step 2: comparative analysis – global team

• Stocks in global equity buy-list have passed regional quality and valuation screens

• Stocks with market cap < US$1bn are excluded from buy-list

• Global team makes comparisons across regions/sectors

• Global team focuses on the valuation differentials, where pricing anomalies are identified from a global perspective

• Unique companies are identified to help construct a diversified portfolio of businesses

We aim for a diversified portfolio, not driven by backward looking index composition

Page 11: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

10

Comparative analysis example – energy sector

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management and all numerical data from Bloomberg, 18 Jan 11

Companies marked in bold are held in the global equity portfolios. Model research example used for illustrative purposes only

5.3%2.3%3.4x10.2x12.2x13.7xAsiaPTT Exploration

6.6%3.6%1.2x9.8x9.9x9.6xLatin AmericaPetrobras

11.5%2.7%4.0x5.6x5.7x6.1xEMEALukoil

16.8x

11.4x

7.1x

9.0x

8.3x

8.4x

12.8x

30.8x

11.4x

11.4x

P/E11

18.4x

12.5x

7.2x

10.9x

9.3x

9.1x

15.9x

91.4x

13.6x

13.1x

P/E10

3.0x

2.0x

1.7x

1.5x

1.2x

1.7x

1.7x

2.5x

2.2x

2.7x

P/B

0.7%4.9%7.9xUKRoyal Dutch Shell

26.8%1.0%15.2xUKBG Group

2.7%3.1%10.1xAsiaPetroChina

-14.6%1.7%6.8xUKBP

8.7%5.4%7.8xEurope ex UKTotal

0.0%0.5%11.4xUSAHess Corporation

31.1%0.6%17.5xUSAEOG Resources

-5.8%5.7%7.6xEurope ex UKENI

12.0%0.5%10.1xUSAApache Corporation

8.8%2.3%10.2xUSAExxon Mobil

Dividend growth

(5yr) (%)

Dividend

yield

P/E12RegionCompany

Page 12: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

11

Art as much as science

Step 3: portfolio construction

• The unconstrained Model portfolio(s) is the start of any portfolio

• The Model has been constructed over time, in some asset classes over 20 years or more

• Exact weightings/allocations for each fund are refined on an ongoing basis

• Factors to consider include fund objective, geographical remit, liquidity, mandate constraints

• New holdings introduced at 1 - 2% [capped at 5% absolute]

We aim for a diversified portfolio, not driven by backward looking index composition

Page 13: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

12

Risk in portfolio

We see risk in absolute terms

• Defined in terms of investing in a poor quality company OR in overpaying for a good one

• Diversification at stock level is main form of control

• Asset/sector allocation provide informal screens

• MPT analysis is for ex-post observations only, to define performance monitoring framework

Typical risk characteristics:

• Low turnover

• Tracking error c3 - 9%

• Fully invested

• Beta typically around 1

• We do not actively hedge currencies

Page 14: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

Current positioning

Page 15: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

14

100.0

2.1

3.5

14.7

9.3

14.8

34.5

1.5

19.6

31 Dec 09 (%)

100.0100.0Total

+2.0-2.0Cash

+4.30.44.7Latin America

+9.96.116.0Asia Pacific ex Japan

+0.610.110.7Japan

+6.39.716.0United Kingdom

+10.719.330.0Europe ex UK

-3.45.31.9Canada

-30.449.118.7United States

Fund’s relative position (%)MSCI World (%)31 Dec 10 (%)Country/region

Relative country positions

Aberdeen Global World Equity Fund

• Portfolio is well diversified from a country/regional perspective, however, benchmark has considerable exposure to the USA and not much exposure to the emerging markets

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, Dec 09 & 10

Page 16: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

15

Aberdeen Global World Equity FundRelative sector positions

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, Dec 09 & 10

100.0

2.1

4.1

11.0

3.5

2.4

9.8

10.7

13.6

4.6

14.7

23.5

31 Dec 09 (%)

-4.88.33.5Materials

100.0100.0Total

+2.0-2.0Cash

-2.411.38.9Industrials

+1.04.25.2Telecom services

-8.010.42.4Consumer discretionary

+3.39.813.1Consumer staples

+3.59.312.8Healthcare

+0.611.712.3Info tech

+1.03.94.9Utilities

+4.411.015.4Energy

-0.620.119.5Financials

Fund’s relative position (%)MSCI World (%)31 Dec 10 (%)Sector

• Portfolio is diversified from a sector perspective and the benchmark has better diversification

• If we can’t find the value we will have nothing in a sector

• Financials single biggest sector weighting, but closer examination shows this to be diversified between banks, insurance companies and real estate

Page 17: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

16

Top 20 portfolio holdings by market value

Aberdeen Global World Equity Fund

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, 31 Dec 10

2.4Hong KongSwire Pacific202.9SwitzerlandRoche Holdings10

2.5UKCentrica173.1ItalyTenaris7

58.8Cumulative %

2.4GermanyE.On193.0JapanCanon9

2.4GermanyAdidas183.1SwitzerlandNovartis8

2.5JapanTakeda Pharmaceutical163.2USAPhilip Morris6

2.6BrazilBanco Bradesco153.3AustraliaQBE Insurance5

2.7UKStandard Chartered143.4ItalyENI4

2.7KoreaSamsung Electronics133.5TaiwanTaiwan Semiconductor3

2.8USAJohnson & Johnson123.7SwitzerlandZurich Financial Services2

2.8UKBritish American Tobacco113.8UKVodafone Group1

%CountryName%CountryName

• A high conviction portfolio of stocks

• Various businesses spread across sectors and countries from around the world

Page 18: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

17

Portfolio activity over past12 months – process in action

Page 19: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

18

Aberdeen Global World Equity Fund

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, change in portfolio weightings 09 & 10. Model portfolio used for illustrative purposes only

• Weights determined through ability to top up on weakness and/or how the stock price performs relative to its fundamentals

New company investments – Dec 09 - Dec 10

0 0 0 0 0 0

0.9

2.6

1.4

2.0

1.0

3.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Banco Bradesco China Mobile Nestle Novartis Oracle Corp- Pepsico

Company

2009 2010Portfolio weight

Page 20: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

19

Aberdeen Global World Equity Fund

0 0 0 0 0 0

1.0

2.6

2.2

3.0

2.4

1.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Deutsche Post Intesa SanPaolo Mapfre Astrazeneca Intel Corp Procter & Gamble

Company

2009 2010

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, change in portfolio weightings 09 & 10. Model portfolio used for illustrative purposes only

• Divested from companies across a range of regions and sectors for a variety of reasons, including M&A, valuation and regional desks selling

Companies divested – Dec 09 - Dec 10

Portfolio weight

Page 21: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

20

Summary

Equities

• Robust investment process

- Replicable and consistent across all desks

Regional teams

• Conduct initial due diligence and filtering on stocks

• Always meet and interview a company before investing

• Provide company research and ongoing due diligence

Global Equities

• Pick stocks from a concentrated universe of ‘best’ ideas from regional teams

• Take advantage of the benefits and opportunities of a flexible universe

• Genuine team effort across all desks

• Concentrated portfolios – we back our judgements

Page 22: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

21

Aberdeen Global – World Equity FundFund characteristics

Fund name

Fund domicile

Fund type

Portfolio Manager

Fund currency

Benchmark

Investment universe

Inception date

Valuation

Aberdeen Global – World Equity Fund

Luxembourg

SICAV

Global Equity team

USD

MSCI World

Lipper Global Equity Global

1 Feb 1993

Daily

USD 1,5001.50%EURLU0505663400A – 2 hedged

USD 1,5001.92%EURLU0505784883S – 2 hedged

USD 1,000,0001%USDLU0505784701I - 2

1.50%

1.92%

AMC

USD 1,500

USD 1,500

Minimum investment

USD

USD

Currency

LU0505663152A - 2

LU0505784297S – 2

ISINShare Class

Page 23: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

Performance and investment risk

Page 24: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

23

Performance: Global Equity (All Cap)

Composite inception: 1 Aug 98

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management

Composite: Global Equity (All Cap) - 3% outperformance (GLOGRP)

Benchmark: MSCI WorldBase Currency: US Dollar (reported in Euro)Gross Returns as of: 31 Dec 10Firm: AAMPLC

136,498,690,7856.66%9,095,027,2131.05%28 (15)26.72%32.86%2009

85,873,702,8104.05%3,477,004,9770.85%18 (12)-37.24%-34.03%2008

115,759,646,9421.69%1,952,101,2091.25%11 (6)-1.18%5.19%2007

101,880,305,2180.83%845,961,1761.35%8 (8)7.92%12.89%2006

38,577,479,6670.39%149,666,943N/A< 5-7.04%-7.24%2000

44,487,591,2250.74%331,232,593N/A5 (3)-11.98%-15.89%2001

21,579,804,4110.83%179,755,573N/A< 5-31.73%-29.47%2002

22,556,082,5211.24%279,919,367N/A< 511.28%8.26%2003

25,908,659,2110.90%231,964,671N/A< 56.95%14.37%2004

93,615,691,5500.30%282,217,881N/A< 526.80%36.79%2005

14,084,679,160N/A37 (0)1.97%4.71%Since inception pa

14,084,679,1602.14%37 (5)0.38%4.62%5 years pa

14,084,679,1601.39%37 (5)-1.43%2.65%4 years pa

14,084,679,1601.17%37 (10)-1.51%1.82%3 years pa

14,084,679,1601.48%37 (14)23.39%26.49%2 years pa

14,084,679,1600.44%37 (25)20.14%20.43%1 year

14,084,679,1600.44%37 (25)20.14%20.43%Year to date

14,084,679,1600.13%37 (35)10.98%10.74%Rolling 3 months

Total firm assetsPercentage

of firm assets

Market value at

end of period

DispersionNumber of portfolios

(*throughout period)

Benchmark

return

Composite

return gross

Year

Page 25: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

24

Disclaimer: Global Equity (All Cap)

Composite Disclosures

Composite: Global Equity (All Cap) - 3% outperformanceAs of: 31 Dec 10

Definition of the Firm

Aberdeen Asset Management plc ("Aberdeen" or "the Firm") is defined as all portfolios managed globally by subsidiaries of Aberdeen Asset Management plc, excluding Property, Private Equity, Private Client and Lloyds Syndicate portfolios.

Aberdeen is the global brand under which all products are now marketed. The global Firm inception date is 1st December 2005 and is comprised of five divisions that either were or were part of legacy compliant firms (Aberdeen Asset Management Inc, the Fixed Income products of Deutsche Asset Management UK and Deutsche Asset Management Americas, from 1st April 2008, the actively managed equity products of Nationwide Fund Advisors and Nationwide SA Capital Trust ("Nationwide") and from 1st May 2009 the Global Investors business of Credit Suisse Asset Management (Australia) Limited). The firm also includes the Aberdeen non-US business and businesses not claiming compliance which have been acquired after 1st December 2005, which have been brought into compliance from 1st January 1996.

The legacy track records satisfy the GIPS portability criteria and have been linked with the track record of the Aberdeen global Firm. Composite returns, start date and composite and firm assets reported prior to acquisitions represent those of the legacy firm which managed the product at the time.

GIPS Compliance

Aberdeen has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS). The effective date of compliance is 1st January 1996. The Firm and its legacy components have been independently verified for the periods to 30th September 2009. A copy of the verification report is available upon request. The inception date of the composite is 31/07/1998 and it was created on 13/04/2006, during the global consolidation project. No alteration of composites has occurred as a result of changes in personnel or any other reasons at any time. A complete list of the Firm's composites is available on request.

Composite Description

This composite comprises accounts with at least 80% invested in equities managed on a discretionary basis. The accounts within this composite invest primarily in companies based in equity markets as defined by Morgan Stanley Capital International. All composite results include reinvestment of dividends and interest.

Page 26: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

25

Disclaimer: Global Equity (All Cap)

Composite Methodology

Returns are time-weighted total rates of return including cash and cash equivalents, income and realised and unrealised gains and losses. Returns are shown net of non-recoverable tax, whilst recoverable tax is included on a cash basis. Composites results are weighted by individual portfolio size, using start of period market values.

Portfolios are valued at least monthly or on the date of any contribution/withdrawal greater than 9% within 1 month. Annual returns are calculated using geometric linking of monthly returns. Exchange rates used are WMR 4pm rates.

A fund becomes eligible for inclusion the first full calendar month after funding. Inclusion may be deferred in cases where it has not been possible to implement the investment strategy. Terminated funds leave composites at the end of the calendar month before official notification of termination is received. Results include all discretionary, fee paying accounts of the Firm.

The dispersion of annual returns is measured by the standard deviation among asset-weighted portfolio returns represented within the composite for the full year. Dispersion is not calculated for composites with less than five accounts for the whole period.

Additional information on policies for calculating and reporting returns is available on request.

Presentation of Results

Gross returns are presented before management, custodial and other fees but after all trading expenses. Net returns are calculated after the deduction of a representative management fee.

Primary Index Description

MSCI World.

Representative Fee Description

Global Equity fee scale: 1.00%

Derivative Instruments

The portfolios in this composite may invest in exchange traded futures and options for efficient portfolio management. Derivatives are not used to leverage the portfolios.

Past performance is not an indication of future results.

Page 27: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

26

Three years to 31 Dec 10

Inception: 26 Feb 93

Total return, gross of fees, EUR

Benchmark: MSCI World

Benchmark is constructed from country level and as such the top line figure may differ slightly from the official benchmark return

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management

Country attribution: Aberdeen Global World Equity Fund

0.670.000.580.092.91--10.842.0Cash

0.000.16-0.220.052.674.475.315.491.9Canada

-0.150.40-0.45-0.112.910.1949.12.4218.7United States

0.200.000.180.026.08-0.42.734.7Other international Equities

-0.380.00-0.20-0.18----0.0Indian subcontinent

1.290.121.28-0.117.143.346.110.2216.0Pacific Basin ex Japan

0.920.121.08-0.297.143.346.16.8816.0Asia Pacific ex Japan

0.670.48-0.040.2214.49-1.6910.13.9010.7Japan

1.590.601.05-0.0612.530.1216.25.5526.7Asia Pacific

0.460.77-0.31-0.011.85-6.3119.3-3.8530.0Europe ex UK

0.560.550.13-0.12-5.00-4.229.7-0.0416.0UK

1.011.32-0.17-0.13-0.35-5.6329.0-2.7246.0Europe

-0.160.56-0.67-0.052.950.5654.53.3120.6North America

2.652.480.39-0.223.46-1.50100.01.1798.0Equities

3.312.480.96-0.133.46-1.50100.01.81100.0Total

TotalSelectionAllocationCurrencyReturn

(%)

Return

(%)

Weight

(%)

Return

(%)

Weight

(%)

Net management effectsCurrencyBenchmarkPortfolio

• Performance coming from a variety of sources

Page 28: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

27

Three years to 31 Dec 10

Sector attribution: Aberdeen Global World Equity Fund

Inception: 26 Feb 93

Total return, gross of fees, EUR

Benchmark: MSCI World

Benchmark is constructed from country level and as such the top line figure may differ slightly from the official benchmark return

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management

2.652.520.13-1.51100.01.1798.0Equities

0.600.62-0.02-1.0010.91.6615.4Energy

-0.28-0.23-0.042.588.3-3.5Materials

0.280.050.23-0.4211.32.638.9Industrials

-0.320.13-0.453.8110.45.532.4Consumer discretionary

-1.35-1.18-0.175.389.8-7.2613.0Consumer staples

0.600.330.271.979.35.3512.8Healthcare

1.881.660.22-11.1920.1-2.3219.5Financials

1.381.350.041.2811.711.7212.2Information technology

0.160.140.02-1.874.20.495.2Telecom services

-0.30-0.340.04-5.893.9-12.434.9Utilities

0.670.000.67--10.842.0Cash

3.322.520.79-1.51100.01.81100.0Total

TotalSelectionAllocationReturn (%)Weight (%)Return (%)Weight (%)

Net management effectsBenchmark Portfolio

• Performance coming from a variety of sources

Page 29: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

28

Return in Euro and before fees for periods ended Sep 10

Aberdeen Global Equity (All Cap) – 3% outperformance

The above is supplemental information and supplements the composite presentations (as provided in the GIPS disclosures)

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management

Comparison with the Global Equity Core Universe (actual ranking)

146173191202207Number of Funds

-2.3-9.50.410.1-1.95th Percentile

-0.5-7.63.313.61.2Lower Quartile

0.5-5.75.715.62.2Median

2.3-3.88.317.93.0Upper Quartile

4.21.012.324.35.595th Percentile

(113)-0.6(101)-6.5(128)4.2(121)14.9(102)2.2Benchmark

(16)3.6(18)-1.4(50)8.2(73)17.0(136)1.6Aberdeen

5 years (% pa)3 years (% pa)2 years (% pa)1 year (%)3 months (%)

Return (%)

26

14

2

-10

22

18

10

6

-2

-6

Page 30: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

Appendix

Page 31: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

30

Ab

erd

ee

n G

lob

al W

orld

Eq

uity

Fu

nd

–D

ec 0

9

Source: A

berdeen Asset M

anagement, D

ec 09

Benchm

ark: MSCI World

Po

rtfolio

sty

le s

kylin

e

0.0

2.5

1.6

-0.9

-0.6

0.4

0.3

1.2

-1.7

0.5

-0.9

-0.8

-0.1

-1.0

0.2

-1.3

3.3

0.8

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Book to Price

IBES Div Yld

IBES Engs Yld

C'Flow Yield

IBES Sales Yld

EBITDA to Price

Rtn on Equity

Income/Sales

IBES 12Mth Gr

IBES 1Yr Rev

IBES Sales 12m

Gr

IBES Engs LTG

Market Cap

Market Beta

Momentum ST

Momentum MT

Debt/Equity

Foreign Sales

Sty

le T

ilt™

Page 32: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

31

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, Dec 10

Benchmark: MSCI World

Portfolio style skyline

Aberdeen Global World Equity Fund – Dec 10

-0.5

3.2

0.6

0.2

-0.4

0.0

0.9

-1.1

0.1

-0.5

0.6

-1.9

-0.9

-0.5

3.3

0.8

-1.8

-0.8

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Book t

o P

rice

IBE

S D

iv Y

ld

IBE

S E

ngs Y

ld

C'F

low

Yie

ld

IBE

S S

ale

s Y

ld

EB

ITD

A t

o P

rice

Rtn

on E

quity

Incom

e/S

ale

s

IBE

S 1

2M

th G

r

IBE

S 1

Yr

Rev

IBE

S S

ale

s 1

2m

Gr

IBE

S E

ngs L

TG

Mark

et

Cap

Mark

et

Beta

Mom

entu

m S

T

Mom

entu

m M

T

Debt/

Equity

Fore

ign S

ale

s

Style Tilt™

Page 33: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

32

What can you expect to find in our chosen stocks?

Quality

• Business prospects/strategy

Evidence of industry growth, clear strategy and execution

• Management

Motivation, experience and track record: do we trust individuals in charge?

• Financials

Strong balance sheet, transparent

• Transparency

Clean company structure, visible earnings, annual report

• Commitment to shareholder value

Company is run for shareholders, not managers or controlling interests

Prefer straightforward companies with clear-sighted management

Page 34: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

33

Risk control AND relative value

Price

• Valuation: use standard metrics, viz P/E ratios, price/cashflow, NAV, dividend yield

• Different criteria depending on sector/industry

• Cross-border and industry comparisons

• Simple forward modelling of each investment using our own forecasts

• Conservative approach, focusing on downside

• Are risks in price? We dislike overpaying

• Relative value as important as absolute given limited number of portfolio names

Holistic approach – we identify where the value is and which stocks will work for us

Page 35: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

34

Group wide system rating

Formal background

◄ Usually conservative

vs market consensus

◄ Key ratios

◄ Key ratios

◄ The bottom line – Buy/sell/

avoid/result etc

◄ Relative performance

Dilution?

Prerequisite for new holding

Who is behind the company?

The company note (I)Dilution

• ‘If options aren’t an expense, then what are they?’

• Warrants, too

• We always fully dilute

◄ Dilution?

Page 36: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

35

What did we learn about the business, industry, etc during the meeting?

X-regional comparison, where necessary

Level of independence, who are the outsiders?

Alignment with shareholders?

How do they evaluate themselves?

The ‘feel’ factor

How does the FM who saw the company justify forecasts?

Versus the market, sector etc

How do we value the company?

What do we think it is worth?

What is the rationale for owning this company/business?

What is going to boost the share price?

Any ‘funnies’

Varies between countries, important for asset

heavy companies

Guarantees, lawsuits, derivatives, etc

Are tax rates unusually low/high… If so, why?

Excess s-t or forex borrowing?

Does OCF differ from profit?

Free cash flow?

• Honesty, transparency, integrity…

• In whose interests does the board manage?

• Treatment of minorities is critical

• Family-run companies can be saints or sinners

• Owners often like dividends – which can be tax-efficient

• Separate check on SRI

The company note (II)Management and corporate governance

Level of independence, who are the outsiders?

Alignment with shareholders?

How do they evaluate themselves?

The ‘feel’ factor

Page 37: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

36

What did we learn about the business, industry, etc during the meeting?

X-regional comparison, where necessary

Level of independence, who are the outsiders?

Alignment with shareholders?

How do they evaluate themselves?

The ‘feel’ factor

How does the FM who saw the company justify forecasts?

Versus the market, sector etc

How do we value the company?

What do we think it is worth?

What is the rationale for owning this company/business?

What is going to boost the share price?

Any ‘funnies’

Varies between countries, important for asset

heavy companies

Guarantees, lawsuits, derivatives, etc

Are tax rates unusually low/high… If so, why?

Excess s-t or forex borrowing?

Does OCF differ from profit?

Free cash flow?

• Focus on exceptional and non-recurring items

• Cross-border comparisons essential

• Move to global accounting standards a plus…

The company note (III)Accounting policies

Any ‘funnies’

Varies between countries, important for asset

heavy companies

Guarantees, lawsuits, derivatives, etc

Are tax rates unusually low/high… If so, why?

Page 38: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

37

What did we learn about the business, industry, etc during the meeting?

X-regional comparison, where necessary

Level of independence, who are the outsiders?

Alignment with shareholders?

How do they evaluate themselves?

The ‘feel’ factor

How does the FM who saw the company justify forecasts?

Versus the market, sector etc

How do we value the company?

What do we think it is worth?

What is the rationale for owning this company/business?

What is going to boost the share price?

Any ‘funnies’

Varies between countries, important for asset

heavy companies

Guarantees, lawsuits, derivatives, etc

Are tax rates unusually low/high… If so, why?

Excess s-t or forex borrowing?

Does OCF differ from profit?

Free cash flow?

• Simple forecast of sales/earnings

• Focus on consistency of free cashflow and how it is used

The company note (IV)Balance sheet/cash flow

Excess s-t or forex borrowing?

Does OCF differ from profit?

Free cash flow?

Page 39: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

38

Global equity team

Stephen Docherty, Head of Global EquitiesBSc (Hons) in Mathematics & Statistics from Aberdeen University. Stephen worked with Life Division of Abbey National PLC. Joined Aberdeen Asset Management in 1994. Responsibilities included performance measurement procedures, generalist coverage and input to all Latin American Investment. Currently directly responsible for a number of Global and EAFE mandates.

Bruce Stout, Senior Investment ManagerBA (Hons) in Economics, Strathclyde University. Over 20 years’ experience. Joined the Group from Murray Johnstone in 2000 where he held the position of Investment Manager for their emerging markets team.

Andrew McMenigall, Senior Investment Manager

MBA (Edinburgh), ASIP. Over 20 years’ fund management experience. Previously an officer in Her Majesty’s Armed Forces. Joined Aberdeen Asset Management PLC in 2003 from Edinburgh Fund Managers PLC, where he held the position of Head of global equities.

Stewart Methven, Senior Investment ManagerMA (Hons) in Economics from Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, ASIP. Worked previously at Prudential Portfolio Managers as an investment analyst. Joined Aberdeen Asset Management in 2003 from Edinburgh Fund Managers where he was an investment manager on the Pan-European equity team.

Jamie Cumming, Senior Investment Manager

CA, CFA, BA (Hons) in Accountancy and Business Law from Strathclyde University. Worked previously at Grant Thornton Chartered Accountants. Joined Aberdeen Asset Management from Edinburgh Fund Managers, where he was an investment manager on their Japanese equities team.

Samantha Fitzpatrick, Senior Investment ManagerCFA, BSc (Hons) in Mathematics from Strathclyde University. Joined Aberdeen Asset Management in 2000 from Murray Johnstone, where she was part of the Performance Measurement & Risk Team. Previously worked at The WM Company.

Martin Connaghan, Investment ManagerJoined Aberdeen Asset Management in 2000 from Murray Johnstone as a Trader in the Global Equity Team. In 2003 he joined the Pan European Investment Grade Credit Team in London, where he worked as a Credit Analyst. Martin rejoined the Global Equity Team as an SRI Analyst before becoming an investment manager.

Ella-Kara Brown, Assistant Investment ManagerBA (Hons) in Financial Services from Napier University. Previously worked for corporate finance firm Adam Smith before joining Aberdeen Asset Managers Private Equity Division in 2005 and subsequent move to the Global Equity Team in 2007 as an SRI Analyst before becoming an assistant investment manager in 2010.

Ann Dewar, Senior Portfolio AnalystJoined Aberdeen Asset Management in 2000 from Murray Johnstone where she was the senior trader for ADR portfolios. Ann has over 20 years’experience and is responsible for the daily management of the global & socially responsible funds.

Cindy Rose, Head of SRI ResearchBA in English and French; MSc in Comparative Literature from Edinburgh University. Joined Aberdeen Asset Management in 2000 from MurrayJohnstone where she was an Investment Writer and Web Editor. Previously worked in management consulting and at the US Tax Court in Washington, DC.

Jill Sneddon, Global Trading CoordinatorBA in Finance & Marketing from Strathclyde University. Worked previously at Aird Sakol Chartered Accountants. Joined Aberdeen Asset Management in 2002 from Cogent where she worked as an International Client Administrator. Previously worked at Murray Johnstone.

Jamie Govan, SRI AnalystBA (Hons) in Accountancy and Law from Glasgow University. Jamie joined Aberdeen Asset Managers with the Global Equity Team on a permanent basis at the beginning of 2008 after working as an intern in the SRI team.

Fionna Ross, SRI AnalystBSc (Hons) Geography from St Andrews University. MSc Quaternary Science, Royal Holloway, University of London. Worked previously in Finance at The National Trust for Scotland before joining Aberdeen Asset Managers Global Equity Team as an SRI Researcher in 2008.

Gail McCullie, SRI ResearcherBSc (Hons) Geography from St Andrews University. Worked previously for The National Trust for Scotland in Property Planning and Estate Management before joining the Global Equity Team as an SRI Researcher in 2010

Page 40: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

39

Aberdeen equity structure

Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, Jan 11

Chief Investment Officer

Anne Richards

Global UK/Europe US GEM Pacific Basin Japan

Stephen Docherty Jeremy Whitley Paul Atkinson Devan Kaloo Hugh Young Kwok Chem Yeh

Andrew McMenigallAnn Dewar

Bruce Stout Cindy Rose

Ella-Kara BrownFionna RossGail McCullie

Jamie CummingJamie GovanJill Sneddon

Martin ConnaghanSamantha Fitzpatrick

Stewart Methven

Ben RitchieBertie Thomson

Charles LukeEdward BealIan Hewett

James LaingJonathan AllisonKurt CruickshankLaurent IngelbertLouise Kernohan

Philip WebsterRodney WellsRomney Fox

Samantha BrownleeSanjeet Mangat

Tom MannYoojeong Oh

Douglas BurtnickFrancis RadanoHughes McLean

Jason KotikJoe McFaddenJonathan Lux

Michael ManzoQie Zhang

Ralph BassettRobert Mattson

London

Andy BrownCatriona Edmond

Gabriel SacksFiona ManningJoanne Irvine

Mark Gordon-JamesMubashira BukhariOsamu Yamagata

Stephen ParrSusan McDonald

São Paulo

Brunella IsperNick Robinson

+

Pacific Basin

inSingaporeThailandMalaysia

Hong Kong

Adrian LimAndrew GillanChou Chong

Christopher WongFlavia CheongJames ThomKristy Fong

Louis LuPeter Taylor

Pruksa IamthongthongThomas Reeves

Andrew PrestonAndrew San

Camille SimeonChhai Ung

Mark DanielsMichelle Lopez

Natalie TamRobert Penaloza

Adithep VanabrikshaOrsen Karnburisudthi

Ratanawan Saengkitikomol

Bharat JoshiGan Ai Mee

Gerald AmbroseJalil Rasheed

Frank TianKathy Xu

Nicholas Yeo

Keita KubotaSandy Lim

Yuki Ogawa

Head of Equities

Hugh Young

Page 41: Presentation aberdeen   martin connaghan

40

For professional use onlyNot for public distribution

• Investors should be aware that past performance is not a guide to future returns, the value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may get back less than the amount invested

• The views expressed in this presentation should not be construed as advice on how to construct a portfolio or whether to buy, retain or sell a particular investment. The information contained in the presentation is for exclusive use by professional customers/eligible counterparties (ECPs) and not the general public. The information is being given only to those persons who have received this document directly from Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) and must not be acted or relied upon by persons receiving a copy of this document other than directly from AAM. No part of this document may be copied or duplicated in any form or by any means or redistributed without the written consent of AAM

• Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom