pps.ranepa.ru · Web viewAey Vorotayev. Leonid E. Grinin. URBANIZATION. URBANIZ. ÓN Y DESARROLLO POLÍTICO DEL SISTEMUNDIAL. Abstract. Section 1 of this article presents a mathematical

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Aey VorotayevLeonid E. Grinin

URBANIZATION

URBANIZ ÓN Y DESARROLLO POLÍTICO DEL SISTEMUNDIAL

AbstractSection 1 of this article presents a mathematical analysis of the longterm global urbanization dynamics and demonstrates that it could be described as a series of phase transitions between attraction basins. This makes it poble to suggest new approaches to the analysis of global social macroevolution. Section 2 presents a threeage model of the macroevolution of the World System statehood (early – developed – mature state) that, we believe, describes the main features of political macroevolution better than the twoage model proposed by Claessen and Skalník (early – mature state). This model has been used as a basis for the analysis of changes in the development of political structures m the preate polities and the most primitive early states (and their analogues) till the modern supercomplex states. In this section we also analyze the relationship between the growth of the tetory controlled by the World System states and the growth of the statehood complexity. Finally, Section 3 attempts at the detection of the correlation between the global evolution of political structures and global urbanization processes. This study confirms the presence of a system of attraction basins and phase transitions within the World System macroevolutionary development field, as well as the presence of mathematically interpretable correlations and interrelations between the analyzed global processes – political, urbanizing, demographic, technological, and sociostructural. Keywords: Urbanization, urban population, macroevolution, World System, political development, early state, developed state, mature state.

ResumenLa sección 1 de este artículo presenta un análisis matemático de las dinámicas urbanizadoras globales a largo plazo y demuestra que se puede describir como una serie de transiciones escalonadas entre cuencas de atracción. Esto hace posible sugerir nuevos enfoques al análisis de la macroevolución global. La sección 2 presenta un modelo en tres estapas de la macroevolución de la estatalidad del Sistema Mundial (estados primitivos – desallados – maduro Este modelo se ha usado como una base para el an álisis de cambios en el desarrollo de estructuras políticas desde los entes preestatales y los más primitivos estados precoces (o sus análogo hasta los estados modernos supeomplejos. En esta secci ón, también analizamos la relación entre el crecimiento del territorio controlado por los estados del Sistema Mundial y el crecimiento de la complejidad de la estatalidad. Finalmente, la sección 3 aborda la detección de correlaciones entre la evolución global de las estructuras políticas y los procesos urbanizadores globales. Este estudio confirma la presencia de un sistema de cuencas de atracción y transiciones escalonadas en el campo del desarrollo macroevolutivo del Sistema Mundial, así como la presencia de colaciones matemáticamente interpretables e interrelaciones entre los procesos globales analizados – político, urbanizador, demográfico, tecnológico y socioestructural.Palabras clave: Urbanización, población urbana, macroevolución, Sistema Mundial, desarrollo político, estados precoces, estado desarrollado, estado maduro.

JEL: R19

Núm. 15 (especial 2013) Andrey V. Korotayev - Leonid E. Grinin / 197

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Global Urbanization amics: A Quantitative Analysis

he available estimates of the Wd System 1 urban ation up to 1990 may be plotted

Tcally ihe following wasee Diam

As we have sn earlier (see, e , Korotayev ; Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina2006b; Grinin and Korotayev 2009а), the rall dynamics of the wd urban ation up tothe is described mathematically in a rather accte way by the lowing tichyperbolic eti

Ut C

,(t0 t)

2

where Ut is the wd urbaation at the moment t, whereas nd tre ctantsith t0corresng to an absolute limit ingularity’ nt) at which U wd become inite if the

1 We ak here about the sem that originated in the early Holocene in the Mie East in direct connection with the start of the Agrarian (‘Neolithic’) reuti and that eventually encompad the we world. Following Ae Gunder Frank ( we dee this system as ‘the World Sem’.As we have previously shown (Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltina , 2006b), it was the World Sem develent that produced the hyperic trend of the worl ation growth. The presence ofa hyperic trend itself icates that the major part of the rective entity (i.e. the world population in case) had a systemic ty; and we believe that the evidence for this unity is already available. Ied, weve evidence for the systematic spread major itiesticated cereals, cattle, sheep, ts,ses, plow, wheel, copper, bre, and later iron technology, and so thr the we North African – Eurasian Oiene for a few millea BCE (see, e.g., Chubarov or Diam 1999 for a synthesis of h evidence). As a ret, the eution of ieties in this part of the world, already at that time, cannot be regarded as truly ipent. Note, of cse, that there wd be no gr to akabout the World Sem stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific, even at the beging of the 1stmilleum CE, if we aied the ‘k criterion sted by Wallerstein ( , asthere was no mment of k at all between, say, China and Eur at that time (as we have norea to disagree witallerstein in his clafication the century Chineseleaching Eur as aluxury rather than a k . However, the century CE (and even the 1st milleum BCE) World Sem definitely lifies as h if we ay the ‘ter’ informatinetwork criterion sted byChaseD and Hall (. Note that at level of anals the presence of an information networkcring the we World Sem is a perfectly ficient conditi which makes it ble to considerthis system as a sie eving entity. Yet, in the milleum BCE any k cd hardlypenetrate from the Pacific coast of Eurasia to its Atlantic coast. However, by that time the World Semhad achieved h a level of integration that iron metallurgy cd ead through the we of the WorldSem within a few centuries. Aher imtant nt aars to be that even by the century CE theWorld Sem had encompad aeciably less than 90 per cent of all the ibitable laaHowever, it aars much more imtant that already by the 1st century CE more than 90 per cent of theworld ation lived precisely in those parts of the world that were integral parts of the World Sem(the Mediterranean regi the Mie East, as well as Sh, Central, and East Asia) (see, e.g., Durand256), whereas almost the we urban ation of the world was centrated j within the

World Sem. A few millea before, we wd find aher belt of ieties strikiy similar in leveland character of cultural complexity, stretching from the Balkans up to the Indus Valley rts, that also encompad m of the world population of that time (Peregrine and Ember , 2001b; Peregrine. Thus, already for many millea the dynamics of the world populati the gll urbanizati theworld political centralization aso on reflect first all the dynamics of population, urbanizati political centralizati etc., of the World Sem that makes it sible to describe them by means of mathematical macromls (see, e.g., Korotayev 2005, 2007; Grinind Korotayev.



wd urban ation growth trend ed by the 1990s cidfurthe

Di 1.1. Dynamics of the World Urban Population (in millions)or cities with 10,000 inhabitants(5000 BCE – 1990 CE)

Notes: Data sources: Modelski 2003; Gruebler 2006; UN Population Division 2012. Modelski provides his estimates of the world urban population (for cities with > 10,000 inhabitants) for the period till 1000 BCE, Gruebler's estimates cover the period between 900 and 1950 CE, whereas the UN's estimates cover the period after 1950. The estimates of the world urban population for the period between 1000 BCE and 900 CE were produced on the basis of Chandler's (1987) data on the world urban population living in large cities (with > 40,000 inhabitants).

Thus, for the period between 5000 BCE and 1990 CE the correlation between the dynamics generated by equation (1) and empirical estimates looks as follows (see Diagram 1.2).



Di 1.2. ld Urban Population Dynamics (in millions), for cities with > 10,000 ibitants (5000 BCE– CE) : the correlation between the dynamics generated the dratichyperic mland empirical estimates

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

observed

0 predicted-5000 -3000 -1000 1000 3000

Notes: R = 0.998, R2 = 0.996, p << Black markers corre to empirical estimates by Model(, Gruebler ( and UN Population Division (. The id grey curve was generated by thefollowing eti

Ut 7705000

.(2047 t)2

Parameters С (7705000) a t0 (veen calculated withe leastres met

The observed very high level of correlation between the longterm macrodynamics of the world urban population and the dynamics generated by the quadratichyperbolic model does not seem coincidental at all and is accounted for by the presence of secondorder nonlinear positive feedback loops between the world's demographic growth and the World System technological development that can be spelled out as follows: the more people – the more potential inventors – the faster technological growth – the faster growth of the Earth's carrying capacity – the faster population growth – with more people you also have more potential inventors – hence, faster technological growth, and so on (Kuznets 1960; Simon 1977, 1981, 2000; Grossman and Helpman 1991; Aghion and Howitt 1992, 1998; Jones 1995, 2003, 2005; Kremer 1993; Cohen, 1995; Komlos and Nefedov 2002; Podlazov, 2004; Tsirel 2004; Grinin and Korotayev 2009а, 2009b; Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina 2006a, 2006b; Korotayev 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009; Markov and Korotayev 2007) (see Diagram 1.3).



Di 1.3. Block Scheme the Nonlinear Second Order Ptive Feedback between TechnolcalDevelopmentd Demaphic Growth

As (both mathematical and empirical) analysis (see, e , Korotayev, Malkov, andKhaltourina ; Korotayev suggests, up to the 1970s the abovementid mechanism ted to lead y to the hyperbolic growth of the Wd Systemati also to the hyperbolic wth of the per capita surplus 2 as well as to thetichyperbolicth of the wDPee Diam

Di Block Scheme the Nonlinear Second Order Ptive Feedback between TechnolcalDevelopment, Demaphicd Economic Growth

Up to the – 1990s the trend towa the hyperbolic growth of the per capita surplus production (in ction with a hyperbolic acceleration of the technolcal wth) tedto result in the trend towa the hyperbolic growth in gll urbanization ( i.e. the hyperbolic wth of the urban ation share in the total ation of the w In ction withthe hyperbolic wth of the wd's ation this, natlly, also produced a longterm trend towa the quatichyperbolicth of the wd urban populationee Diam

2 That is, the product produced, per person, r the amount (m) minimally necery to reproduce the ation wit zeroowtate ihelthusian system .



Di 1.5. Block Scheme the Nonlinear Second Order Ptive Feedback Generatinhe Trendtowardhe QuadraticHyperbolic Growth the World Sem Urban Population

The best conformity of the dynamics generated by the tichyperbolic etion tothe empirical estimates of the wd urban ation is ed the period or to 1965.For this period, equation (1) describes more than 99.88 per cent of all the macrovariation of thevariable iuestion ( R = 0.9994, R2 = 0.9988ithe following parameter values : C = 2610000[in millions], t0 = 2010). Incidentally, the abovementioned parameter value (t0 = 2010 [CE]) indicates that if the world urban population growth trend observed prior to the mid1960s continued, the world urban population would become infinite already in 2010. That is why, it is hardly surprising that since the mid1960s the World System started to withdraw from the blow up regime with respect to the variable in question. Indeed, since the 1960s we observe a slowdown of the relative rate of the wd urban ation growth, a according to the forecasts(see, e , Gbler in the forthcoming decades the slowdown of absolute rates of thewd ation wth will also start, resulting in the stabilization of the wd urbanation ihe nd cent at the levelboutllionee Diam 1.6).

The general macrodynamics of the Wd System urbanization can be describedmathematically with the lowing dirential etion (Korotayev Grinin andKorotayev а

du

dt aSu(ulim u) ,where u is the share of the urban ati S is per capita surplus produced within the givenlevel of the Wd System's technolcal develent , a is a ctant, and ulim is themaximum sible ion of the urban ation (that may be estimated as being within0.8–0.9, and can begad within theven cext as the ‘sattion level’) .



Di 1.6. ld Urban Population Dynamics (in millions),for citieith > 10,000 inhabitants (5000 BCE – 2006 CE), with a forecast till 2350

Notes: Data sources: Model Gruebler UN Population Division The curve forhas been calculated on the basis of Gruebler's medium forecast for the dynamics of the gll urbanization (i.e., the proportion of urban ation in the worl rall populati and own forecast of the worldation for this period (Korotayev,lnd Khaltina 2006a).

With low values of u (< 0.3) its dynamics is determined, first of all, by the hyperbolic growth of S.3 As a result, the urbanization dynamics turut te also close the hyperbolic dynamics,which, in conjunction with the hyperbolic growth of the World System population (that was naturally observed just for the period characterized by low values of global urbanization) led to the fact that the quadratichyperbolic equation describes very well the overall macrodynamics of the wd urban ation this peri With hir values of the gll urbanization ix(u) the sattion ect is perceived m and m sty, and as it aches thesattion level the gll urbanization growth rates begin to increasiy slow n, which is obsed at sent – a time when the Wd System has be to withdraw from the blow regime.

One can hay i that thest gll urbanization to the th cent lookssseen in Diams and 1.6) extremely ‘dull’, producing an imssion of an almostpect station 4 lowed by an eosive mrn urban ation growth. In reality, thelatter just s allow us to disce in the diams above, the fact that many peri of themrn wd urban hist were characterized by the dynamics that was comparativelyless matic. In fact, the imssion of the mrn urban station created by the

diams above, cd be regad as an illusion (in the strict sense of this word) produced justby the quatichyperbolic trendhe wd urbaation growthsedhe mid1960s. To see this it is sufficient to cider Diam in a lrithmic scale (seeDiam 1.7).

3 For the systems of eti describing this hyperic growth generated by the secondorder nonlinear positive feeck loops between the World Sem technolcal develent and the world demac growth see, e Korotayev,lkov, and Khaltina 2006a

4 Whereas for theriodior to 1000 BCE this station looks absolute .



Di 1.7. The World Urban Population Dynamics (in millions),for cities with > 10,000 inhabitants (5000 BCE – 1990 CE), logarithmicale

As we see, the structure of the curve of the World System urban population growth turns out to be much more complex than one would imagine at first glance at Diagrams 1.1–1.2 and 1.6. First of all, one can single out in a rather distinct way three periods of relatively fast world urban population growth: (A1) the second half of the 4th millennium BCE – the first half of the 3rd millennium BCE, (A2) the 1st millennium BCE and (A3) the 19th – 21st centuries CE. Moreoverne caee tweriods oelatively slow growthe worlrbaopulation: (B1)the mid3rd millennium BCE – the late 2nd millennium BCE and (B2) the 1st – 18th centuries CE. As we shall see below, two other periods turn out to be essentially close to these epochs: Period (B0) immediately preceding the mid4th millennium (when the world urban population did not grow simply because the cities had not appeared yet and no cities existed on the Earth), and Period (B3) that is ected to begin in the 22 nd century, when, according to forecasts, the wd urban ation will again stop growing in any sificant way (in connection with theWd System urbanization reaching the sattion level and the stabilization of the wd ati (see, e bler 2006; Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina 2006a, 2006b

As one can see in Diagram 1.7, in Period В1 (from the mid3rd millennium BCE to the early 1st

millennium BCE) the world urban population fluctuated at the level reached by the end of the previous period (А1), whereas the trend dynamics carved its way with great difficulties through the dominant cyclical and stochastic dynamics (see, e.g., Modelski 2003; Frank and Thompson 2005; Harper 2007). In Diagram 1.7 one could hardly discern the cyclical component of the world urban population dynamics during Period B2 (the 1st – 18th centuries CE), which is accounted by the simple fact that the respective stretch of the diam has been pared onthe basis of Gbler's database that des this period a very small ber of data nts that is sufficient the detection of the cyclical component of the process under study. Within Period this cyclical component will be m visible if we use er's database,which des much m data nts this period (Chaer 460–510) (see Diam

5

5 This database consists of lists of the world largest cities for vari time nts with estimates of the rective cities' ation at the rective moments of time . Chaer prdes estimates for the following time nts (bers in brackets indicate the urban population in tnds, for cities with



Di 1.8. Urban Population Dynamics (in thousands),for cities with not less than 40,000 inhabitant1200 BCE – 1350 CE)ogarithmicale

As we see, in this diagram we can observe for Period В2 not only a distinct cyclical component,6 but also a more distinct upward trend. This trend will be even more clearly seen if we plot Chandler's data on the population dynamics of megacity (> 200,000) inhabitants (which will also make it possible for us to consider the period after 1350) (see Diagram 1.9).

ation smaller than which the estimates are prded for the rective year; for example, ber20 in brackets after BCE indicates that for BCE Chaer's database prdes estimates of the urban ation for all the world cities with no less than 20 tnd ibitants) – 2250 BCE (, 2000 BCE (, 1800 BCE (, 1600 BCE (, 1360 BCE (, 1200 BCE (, 1000 BCE (, BCE(, BCE (, BCE (, BCE ( and further for the following years CE: (,(, (, (, (, (, 1000 (, 1100 (, 1150 (, 1200 (, 1250 (, 1300

(, 1350 (, 1400 (, 1450 (, 1500 (, 1550 (, 1575 (, 1600 (, 1650 (, 1700 (, 1750 (, 1800 (, 1825 (, 1850 (116), 1875 (192), 1900 (, 1914 (455), 1925 (200), 1950 (200)and 1970 (. The main prem with the of Chaer's database within the cext of the presentst is that it turns out to be imble to get data on the world urban ation dynamics through the simple summation of the ati of the cities cred by Chaer for the rective years. Ied,with h a simple mation we will ain, for example, for 1825 a fie indicating the total urbanation that lived in that year in cities with less than 90 tnd ibitants, for 1850 – for thecities with less than tnd ibitants, for 1875 – for the cities with less than tndibitants, for 1900 – for the cities with not less than 30 tsand ibitants, for 1914 – for the cities with not less than 455 tnd ibitants; and such aries numbers will not supply us witny usefulinformati On the other ha of cse, if for year we have at dil data on cities with> 80 tnd ibitants, for a sec – on cities with > t and for a third – on cities with >t we can trace the urban ation dynamics for cities with > tnd ibitants.

However, this s ve the we prem. Ied, when we Chaer's database with rect tothe last centuries, we can y ain a meaniul dynamic time series for the megacities (> tnd ibitants). However, even with this aoach we cannot ain a general picture of the world urban ation dynamics for the we period cred by Chaer's database (that is, after 2250 BCE), as noh megacities existed before the mid milleum BCE. The longest dynamic time series can be here ained for the cities with no less than 40 tnd ibitants (ecially in ction with Model'sdatabase). However, in this case we cannot go beyond 1350 CE. Beca of this, when ng Chaer's database we will have to utilize the data on the total ation of large cities (with no less than 40 tnd ibitants) for the period between 3300 BCE and 1350 CE (in ction with Model's dataon the period before 2250 BCE) and data on the total ation of megacities (with no less than tnd ibitantach) for theritween 430 BCE aE.

6 In particular, after 1100, which is connected with the nt that in Chaer's database after this year the intervaltweenta pointeed from 100 tars.



Di 1.9. World Urban Population Dynamics (in thousands),for cities with no less than 200,000 inhabitants (1000 BCE –E)ogarithmicale

As we see, a steady upward trend can be traced here during several centuries before 1800. On the other hand, one should take into account the point that a relatively fast growth of the world urban population was observed during that period against the bac of ahyperbolically accelerating growth of the wd's rall ation (see, e , Korotayev,Malkov, and Khaltourina , That is why we shall ain a clearer pict of thegll urbanization dynamics if we plot the estimates of the dynamics of the gllurbanization ix per se, that is the ion of the urban ation in the rallationhe wd (see Diam 1.10).

Diagram 1.10. Dynamics of the World Macrourbanization Index (proportion of population living in large, >

40,000 inhabitants, cities) according to the estimates by Modelski and Chandler (3500 BCE – 1400 CE)

As has been mentid above, er's database s make it sible to trace thewd macurbanization dynamics after 7 That is why in order to ain an rallpict of the gll urbanization dynamics we shall have to rely with respect to Period В2 onGbler's estimates the way, let us recollect that because of a very small ber of datants in this database the respective do reflect the cyclical component of the wdmacurbanizationmics) (see Diam 1.11) .

7 In fact, it produces a bit of a distorted picture already for 1400, as for this year it contains data on the cities with > 45 (and not 40) thousand inhabitants.




Diagram 1.11. Dynamics of the World Macrourbanization (proportion of population living in large, > 40,000, cities in the overall population of the world) according to the databases of Modelski,

Chandler, and Gruebler (4000 BCE – 1950 CE), logarithmic scale

Our analysis suggests some idea of the general pict of the lerm macurbanization

of the wd. Dng Period А1 we obse the formation of the first la cities, and theion of their ation reached the level of decimals of per cent of the wd'srall populati Dng Period Вhisriabled fluctuated withihisr of matil, during Period A2, it md to the further order of mat, to the level of m thanper cent. The variable in stion had fluctuated within this order of mat during

Period B2 il, during Period A3, it began to shift to the next (a e, the last possible) order of mat, to the level of ens per cent. It is also remable that the 2 milleum CE Gbler's database icates a clear hyperbolic trend of the wd mac urbanizationscribed mathematicallyl (2) (see Diam

nd

Diagram 1.12. World Macrourbanization Dynamics, 1250–1950 CE: the correlation between predictions of the hyperbolic model and empirical estimates

.3

.2

.1

predicted

0.0 observed

1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

Notes: R = 0.997, R2 = 0.994, p < 0.0001. The black markers correspond to Gruebler's (2006) empirical estimates. The solid grey curve has been generated by the following equation:

ut = 0.01067 +5.203

.(1977 t)Parameters С (5.203), t0 (1977) and the constant (0.01067) have been calculated with the least squares method.



Note that the detectedlnization dynamics correlatesther well with themicsof the Wd System itical organization (see Section 2 of the sent article). Note also thatthe above mentid shronous se transiti to the new orders of mat of thegll urbanization and new order of the Wd System itical organization complexity coincide in time with se transiti to hir orders of the Wd System itical centralization that were detected by Taagepera and that t place, according to his calculati, during peri А1, А2 and А3. Taagepera estimates the Wd System itical centralization dynamics using the icator that he dees as an ‘ective ber of ities’that is aversehe political centralization ix (which hasluestween 0 ahere 1 corres to the maximum level of the wd itical centralizati that is the wd fication within it T, in Diam 1.13 below, the nward trend corresto the GROWTHitical centralizationhe w

Diagram 1.13. Dynamics of the ‘Effective Number of Polities’ Calculated on the Basis of Territory Size Controlled by Various Polities (Taagepera 1997: 485, Fig. 4)

Similar se transiti aar to be obsed with respect to the wd literacymacrodynamics. In fact, during Period A1 we e the emence of the first literate peewe share had reached the level of decimals of per cent by the end of this period andfluctuated at this levelng Period ВDng Period Аthe wd literacy grew an orderof mat and reached the level of several percent of the wd's total ati itfluctuated at this level during Period B2 till the late 18th cent when Period A3 started. Dng that period the wd literacy has reached the level of ens per cent, and by thebeging of Period B3 (presumably in the 22 nd century) it is likely to stabilize at the hundredpercent level (see, e , Dya Meliantsev Korotayev, Malkov, andKhaltourina 2006a).

In fact, the abovementid se transiti can be regad as dirent aspects ofa series of fied se transiti: Phase Transition A1 from medium complexity arian




societies to complex arian s, Phase Transition A2 from complex arian societies to srcomplex s, a finally, Phase Transition A3 from srcomplex arian societies topostindustrial s (within this perspective, the period of industrial societies turns to be aperise transition В2 – В3).

* * *

Thus, the World System history from the 6th millennium BCE can be described asa movement from Attraction Basin B0 (the one of medium complexity agrarian society) through Phase Transition A1 to Attraction Basin B1 (the one of complex agrarian society), and further through Phase Transition A2 to Attraction Basin B2 (the one of supercomplex agrarian society), and further through Phase Transition А3 to Attraction Basin В3 (the one of postindustrial society). Note that within this perspective, the industrial period turns out to be a period of phase transition from the preindustrial society to the postindustrial one.

2. Political Devement the World System

As the main eving itical t of the Wd System is the state, it becomes necessary to begin this Section with a discussion of the relevant set of definiti regang the eutirysencetate ts. 8

When the develent of statehood in the mew of the rall histcal process isanalyzed, two main stages are usually identified: the stage of the early state and the one of the mature state (see, e.g., Claessen and Skalník 1978a, 1978b, 1978c; Claessen and van de Velde 1987, 1991; Skalník 1996; Shifferd 1987; Tymowski 1987). However, when we try to apply this scheme to the World System political development, it becomes evident that in no way is this scheme complete.

Firstly, if, according to the prevalentews, the first mat states aared in ancient times (Egypt), or in the late 1st milleum (China), 9 cd we classify the Ean statesof the 18th and 19th centes, let al the cemporary states? Wd they be also mat, or srmat?

Secondly, it is evident that the nineteenth cent Ean states also dired in the most way from the complex itically centralized mrchies the Antity aMieAges (which in their turn are qualitatively more complex than the early state) according to

8 Within the framework of this article the state is defi as a category t denotes a system ofsiali institutions, organs, ms t support inter er life of a society; anoriion of er, administrati or maintenance t sesses the followingchareristics: (a) sreignty (onomy); (b) supremacy, legitim reality of er within atain territory a certain circle of people; (c) has the clity to rce people to fulfill itss, as well as to relations and ms.

9 For example, in the Early State (Claen and Skalník 1978d) crii dealing with Egypt and China(Janssen 213; Pokora 198–199) theriod the early state corresponds to the Ancient Kingdom (upto 2150 BCE), whereas for China it is regarded as the period preceding the formation of the Qin Empire (up to CE).




a number of other characteristics (in particular, with respect to the administration level and culture, the level of development of law, and the relationships between the state and society). This accounts for Max Weber's following statement: ‘In fact, the State itself, in the sense of a itical association with a ratil, written constituti ratilly ordained law, and anadministration to ratil es or laws, administered by trained officials, is wn, inthis combination of characteristics, y in the Occident, despite all other aches to it ’(Webe958: 15–16). 10

Thirdly, it woulethetrange to assume that the industrial revolution the th and 19th

century did not lead to the radical transformation of the state organization, whereas the scheme early state – mature state s notflect this transformation at all.

Thus, it is rather clear that Claessen and Skalník (1978b: 5) had reduced their scheme of the statehood development to the precapitalist nonindustrial states only. Consequently, the secondaut of this article has suggested to sificantly aent and amend the the of theearly – mature state (see Grinin 2006а, , , and has come to the clusionabout the necessity to ‘insert’ between the early and mat state a stage of the develdstate Hence, we deal with the two main stages of statehood develent (the earlystates and the mat states), but withe following te stages:

a) early states are not sufficiently centralized yet and they politically organize societies with underdeveloped social, class (and, frequently, administrativepolitical) structures;

b) developed states are the formeentralized states of Late Antiquityhe Middle Ages, and the Early Modern period, which politically organize societies with distinct estate-class stratification;

c) there states he capitalist ehnize politically the societies where estatesve disaared, the bourgeois and working classes have formed, nati have develd, and resentative democracy has proliferated. 11 To be m correct we should speak about trial, rather than capitalist peri as this incls industrial socialist states. This has made it necessary to develop anew the statehood eution the and to suggest new formulati of the main characteristics of each of the stages of this eutiry process (see Grinin 2006b, , 2006g, 2007d, ; Grinin andKorotayev 2006).

10 Some scars even believe that can ak about the real states starting y from Early ModernEur, after the 15 th and 16th centuries (see, e , Bel 178–182). Vincent ( also prefers toak about the states y after the 16 th century. There are a number of other scars who prefer to stickthemetion (see, e , van der Vliet 2005).

11 Correspondiy early, develd, and mature states cd be deed as simple, complex, andsupercomplex. Note that this termi wd corre to the sted for the eutirytypol of chiefs that are also vided into simple, complex, and supercomplex s (see, e ,Korotayev et al. Kradin . Note also that these three ts of states are actually characterized bythree different orders of mat of complexity as it is underst in Complexity Stes (see, e ,Lewin 1992; Waldrop 1992).



For each stage we can identify te ses: the primitive, typical, and transitional states ofeach respective type.12 In the mew of this article the basic characteristics of statehoodstages are identifiedhesishe mie phaseach stage (thus, respectively for typicalearly, typical developed, and typical mature states). The point is that at therst phasehe onethe primitive state of the respective t) the ity retains many elements of the vi statet, whereas in the third se (the transitional se) many of its instituti become‘ovepe’ and therst characteristicsr stagehe statehoodvelent aar.

Main Differences between the Early, Developed, and Mature States

Early states dir atly am themselves according to many characteristics, in particular with respect to the dee of their centralizati as well as the level of develent of theiradministrative, taxati and jcial systems. However, if we l what direntiates themfrom the develd and mat states, we willnd that the early state is always an incletestate (both organizationally and sociall This ‘incompleteness’ is also relevant with respect to relatihips between the state and the society. There were erous versi of the earlystates, within each of them some important elements of statehood were either absent, or significantly underdeveloped. In most cases this incompleteness was expressed in the most direct way, as most early states simply did not have any significant statehood attributes, or did not develop them to a sufficient degree. First of all, this is relevant with respect to such statehood attributes as professional administration, control and repression apparatus, taxation, territorial division, as well as a sufficiently high degree of centralization and written law. However, in some early states (such as, e.g., the Incas state or the Early Kingdom in Egypt) a contrary disproportion is observed. Though the administrative apparatus and bureaucracy were rather powerful there, they were imposed upon societies that were underdeveloped socially and/or ethnically. Hence, in such cases it was the society that looked underdeveloped in comparison with the state.

The developed state is a state that has been med and cleted, and centralized , thathas all the above mentid attries of statehood (am them the ssil aratus ofadministration and c, rear taxation and artificial tetal division). T, thestatehood attries that cd be absent within the itical system of the early state arenecessarily sent within the of the develd state. 13 The develd state was a result of

12 In general, these names are given to the rective ses in accordance with the tradition of Claen andSkalník (1978b: 22–23; : 640; Claen 589) who identified the incte, tcal, andtratil stages of the early state. However, there are certain prems when we deal with a regreonfrom a develd to a primitive se of certain ts of state For example, to dee the 18 thcentury develd state in Egypt (after it had regred from the typical develd statehood found there,e , in the 16th, or 11th centuries) as ‘incte’ aars to be clearly misleading (see, e , Grinin 2006h).Hence, the term ‘primitive’ems to be more aiatere.

13 Naturally, the ion of ‘develd’ state is rather conventil. It can y be regarded as develd incompari with the less complex (‘early’) state, whereas it aars underdeveld when compared withthe more complex (‘mature’) state Thus, the Russian state in the age of Ivan the Terrible aarsratherveld when compared withe Prince Ivan Kalita acessors. However,it s stand any compari even with Peter the Great's empire. However, the state of Peter I looksrather primitive in compari with, say, the Russian Empire in the late 19th century. To dee the threestages of the statehood eution may also the termi (mentid in Fe 12 above)



a l histcal develent and selecti to which te states t to be msuccess we institutes are organically lid with the social stts of respectivesocieties that are h d on the respective social order and support it. For example, in sia such states with ective centralization develd on the basis of the formation of the estate society, estate mrc the alliance between the mrchs anobilitynd sometimeswith cities). The develd state iuences social processes in a much m se andactive way. It is y tily connected with the peculiarities of social and corporatestt of the society, also ctts them in itical and jcial institutes. In thisrespect, it can be regad as an estatecorpor state. Natlly, dirent states reached therespective stageheirvelent in dirent timesee Table 1 for mtail).

The mature state is a result of capitalist develent and the industrial reuti hence, it has a litatively dirent production basis. Other dirences between the mat state and its decess are also very sificant. It is based on a formed or forming nation with all its peculiarities. Such a state is litatively m develd in organizatil and legal respects,it always has a ssil bureaucracy with definite characteristics (see, e , Weberand a clear mechanism of er transmission and ati It is also natl that themat state has litatively m develd aspecialized instituti administration andc. The mat state was also grally transformed astateclass state into a purelyclass ; and in its final stages it eves into a social state. T, in the Antiquity andMiddle Ages there were no ure states, but only early and developed ones . The first

mat states cd onlar ihe late th a th centes.The abovementid eutiry ts of states dir am themselves by a ber of

other characteristics. In particular, it aars necessary to pay attention to these direnceswith respect to the interaction between centralized power, the elite, the commrsati This important by itself nt acres a special thetical sificance,because the interaction ml of state – elite – commrs is used rather productively in thedemogracsttl the that analyzes the dynamics of intel processes in industrialand early industrial societies, as well as the interaction between the elements this stt inthe situation of ation growth and the resource deficits produced by this wth (see, e ,Goldst Thin 2003, ; Korotayev and Khaltourina 2006; Grinin and Korotayev

In the sent article, the ml of interaction the triae CENTER – ELITE –COMMONERS (PEOPLE) within each eutiry t of state can be y sented asshort descripti of the most tcal situati (for m details see Grinin 14 Theseschemes ls follows.

In the early state we ntly e a situation where the elites, basing themselves ontheir resources (la, clients, military force) or their special ition (as recognized resentatives of certain lineages or dynasties, heads of tribal formati and so on), c,in some way or aher, a very la or even the most part of the tet of a respectivecount The commrs find themselves under the jsdiction and ective c of the

sted by the sec aut of this article: the simple (early) state – the complex (develd) state – the supercomplex (mature)ateowever, thiermi alts owimitati

14 The analysis of other (far less typical) models of the interaction between the center, the elites, and the populace in the early, developed, and mature states goes beyond the scope of the present article.



elites and they are rered to pe state ies. A ciderable part of the commration (especially serfs, slaves and so fi themselves altther of the state'sjsdicti Within such situati the center turns to be actually an aggregate of the forcesof the elites (both regil elites and the s resented in the capital). Frently the centercannot organize the main functi of the state without elites, because the state spossess yet the necessary aratus, or this aratus is rather weak. T, the interrelatibetween the commr ation the center are mediated by the elites to a verycidere degree. As a result, the elites take c of the tetalfunctil instituti,in particular the fixation of ies, tax collecti jcia organization of military forces anddefense, land distriion (this ntly combines with the elites' immty and autonomy asa s of payment the peance of such functi). We can mention as examples of suchearly states the fel states of E, such as the Frash state in the 8 th – 10th centes,Eand (both before the Nan cst and some time after it), German states in the 10 th –15th centes, Kievan and Musc up to the age of n III. This is tcal manyancient and medieval states side E ( e.g., Mesopotamia after Hammbi, theHittite Ki,naiderablertshe Japanesestory, and so on). 15

In the developed state the elites are sificantly m inteted in the state system, tthey are much m connected to the center. In comparison with the early state, the develdstate sesses a ciderably lar and much m sophisticated administration aratus.However, it is y resented systematically in the center, whereas at theriry it isthergmenta That is why here the elites still act as a component of the regil state aratus,especially with respect to the military functi, also ntly with rega to generaladministrati taxati jcia religi subsystem and so In particular, lalandowners ntly peed taxati jciary and administrative functi; the taxeswere collected by taxfarmers and the ice functi wd be peed by resentativesof special social s ( e.g., in the Ottoman nces they were peed by the Janissaries[see, e imche 1968:

This nt s cradict the idea that the develd state is m organicallyconnected with the society than the early s. Within the develd state the relatibetween the center and the commrs are h direct irect , that is, they are partlymediated by the elites, partly these relati are cted directly through the formal andofficial local state aratus. the meantime the commrs rely m and m the centeras a sibleector against the atrariness the local elites, which is much less tcal forthe early state.

In the mature state its administrativebureaucratic aratus becomes te systemic andcomplete, which makes it sible the center to ct its interaction with the commration directly. In the mat state it aars m accte to speak about theintelati between the elites, the ace, and the state ther than the center). Weobse the relatihips between the state and the elite becoming civil. This means that theelites (i.e., lascale landowners, inessmen, financiers, as well as the intellectuals' elite)

15 Even in the early states with a relatively str center we erve frequently a situation described by Claessen and Oosten (1996): ‘Theruler and the elite in the centre favour centralization and the establishment and maintenance of centralized power, while local elites favour decentralization. In practice these efforts are frequently characterizehe pursuit of a “balance of power” policy and competition for important offices, rather than by the dominance by the central ruler over the dignitaries of the state’.




stop peing the direct functi of the state stts, these functi are peedalmost entirely by theal, official statens; that is, the elites cangad as a part ofthe civil society, no longer as a part of the state. However, the elites' vileges and status arestill protected by the state. All these crie to the formation of civil society . Therelatihips between the state the ace are direct immediate h through thestate aratus ( e.g., through taxation or jcial organs), and through the participation of theace in electi.

Summing up it may be said t in the early state the center y tes (quite weakly) theterritories ati through the mediation of the elites t provide most of the directinteraction with the ace; in the develd state the center directly or irectly integratesthe elites into the state atus, limits the elites' influence on the ace, estishes somedirect relati with the ace; the mature state th the help of a rather sophisticatedinistrative atus elaborated le sys tem t it sesses) elimies theinistrativeterritorial crol of the elites over the ace, transforms the elites into at of the civil so ciety, estishes systematic direct links between the state theace.

Political Evolutionhe World System

As is well wn, within the Wd System the first states aared in the 4 th and early3rd millennia (see, e , Vi 150–151; Baines and Yoffee 199; Wri

386; 1998), t the dates dir depeng on vari histcal and archaeolcalrectti; of course, they also depend on the definition of the state used by direntscars. Dng the sent millennium and a half, the main trend of the Wd Systemitical eution was connected with the transformation of tate ities into the states ortheirrtstail see thext sectionhis article).

Within our systems of definiti, the first develd state (New Ki Egypt) aaredin the 16th cent . 16 However, its formation was ceded (as aars to also have beened with respect to the early states) by the formation of the develd state analogue afew centesforeee Table 1 belowThe nt is that with time some early states achievedsuch a high level of administrative develent that, to a certain dee, they cd becidered analogues wever, incomplete) of the develd states. We mean such ities asthe Third Dsty of Ur state and the ki of Hammbi in Mesopotamia. In ation tothem the first complete analogues develd ( e.g., Middle Kingdom Egypt). Thus the first riseof the developed state and their analogues took place around the late 3rd millennium and the first

half of the 2nd millennium BCE, which corresponds to the first peak of World System urban

16 Egypt d a few features that made it sible for the develd state to aar there earlier than in other countries (t partial analogues of the develd state aared in Meamia already in thelate third milleum BCE). Firstly, this is the position of the Egyptian mainland as a narrow strip al navigable river, the Nile. Secondly, this is a very high level of its etc and cultural homneity. Thirdly, this is a rather l period of ance of any sificant external threat (and the case of Et differed much from Meamia). Fthly, this is the presence of a str ideol of rl er.Fifthly, this is the weass of trade and my circulati which strehened the redistriive role of the state for a rather l period of time; ever, later this point hired sificantly the further develent.




population growth that is observed more or less in the same period (see the next section of the present article).

However, m than a milleum the early states remained absolutely inant,whereas the forming develd state analogues turned to be rather unstable. A new andmuch m steady rise of the develd states was ed in the mie and sec half ofthe 1st milleum BCE. Fherm, the early 1 st millennium CE develd states and theiranalogues cled a stantial ion of the Wd System tet (and also themajty of the Wd System ation lived just within this tet as the develdstates and their analogues incld the last ities of this period (the Achemenid Empire,the Ptolemaic and Seleucid states, the Qin and Han empires in na, the an, and laterantine, Empire, as well as the Sassanid Empire in As we shall see in the next sectionof this article, the growth of the ber of develd states and the ension of the tet under their c correlate rather lcally with the radical wth of the Wd System urban ation obseithin precisely the sameri

During the whole 1st millennium CE the number of developed states and their analogues fluctuated significantly in connection withe rather well knowomplex and dramatic events of world history (the fall of the West Roman Empire, the Great Migration, Arab conquests etc.). However, in general their ber remained rather small, whereas the tet under theirc sometimes decreased sificantly. The same can be ed with respect to the wd urban ation and urbanization rates. All this is rather congruent with te thees thatmaintain that the 1st millennium CE is a period of deep litative transformation of the WdSystem and the we histcal process; the first milleum CE was a period of parationa new litative (and ntitative) akthrough in the field of technoles andproduction as a wetails see Grinin 2003b, 2003c,2006d). 17

A new qualitative breakthrough (or what the first author refers to as ‘the transition to a new production principle) can be dated to the mid15th century, though some its signs can be discerned in the 13th and 14th centuries (see Grinin 2003b, 2003c, 2006d for more details). Taking into consideration the expected time lag, this correlates rather well with a significant acceleration of the world urban population growth observed in the late 15th and 16th centuries. The same dynamics can be traced with respect to the number of developed states and the territory controlled by them (see the following section in the present article).

The subsequent growth in urbanization (caused by the transition to industrial production) led not onlo the ‘victory’ ohe developed states over the early onesut alshe formation onew evolutionary type of state: the mature state, which was tightly connected to industrializationand industrial economy. The first such states developed in the late17th century. Yet, already by the 19th century they had become dominant in Europe andthe New World (see Diagram 2.1). Finally, by the end of the 20th century this type of state was prevalent everywhere, except possibly certain parts of Tropical Africa and Oceania.

17 We mean the socalled early industrial reuti of the first half of the 2 nd milleum CE; see, e , Bernal JohnsonIslamFreidzon 1986: 84; Gurevic 68; see also Dmitrie 140–141.




Di 2.1 . Growth the Number Developed States

Average number of developed states and their analogues (units per period)

Diagram 2.2. Dynamics of the Mature States' Number (1500–1900 CE)

Dynamics of the Territory Controlled by Developed and Mature States and their Analogues

A general picture of this dynamics up to 1950 can be presented as follows (see Diagram 2.3).




Diagram 2.3. Dynamics of Territory Controlled by the Developed and Mature States and Their

Analogues (millions km2), till 1950

Note: The dynamics of territory crolled by develd and mature states (and their analogues) havebeen determined on the basis of Tables 1 and 2 in Grinin and Korotayev Korotayev and Grinin2006 in ction with Taagepera's database (Taagepera , 1978b, , the OpenHistory database (http://wwwstory.net), as well ahe Atl Wist (O'Brien 1999).

Ttart a preliminary analysis ohe fine structure ohisnamicshat will be continued inthe next section of this article) it makes sense to consider thisnamics in logarithmic scale (see Diagram 2.4).

Diagram 2.4. Dynamics the Size Territory Controlled bevelopedd Mature States and Their Analein millions of square kilometers), tillEogarithmicale




As we can see, this diagram detects essentially the same system of attractors and phase transitions that was found in the previous section of this article with respect to the global urbanization dynamics. A more detailed study of the relationship between the dynamics of the two variables will be performed in the next section.

3. The Urat Political Devement of the ldtem: A Comattitat Ais

Because the relatihip between urbanization and the eution of statehood is a ratheruminous sect, we shall y cider a few aspects of this relatihip. 18 First of all, it

aars necessary to e that the very formation of the state is connected with urbanizationdirectly, or irectly. 19 Am fact criing h to state formation and urbanizatithe lowing aar to have been especially important: а) ation growth (see, e ,Claessen and van de Velde seD and Hall Fried , 1967b; SeceKorotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina , 2006b; Grinin ); b) develent of

tradekholm 1977; Webb 20 and c) growth of wealth.21

It also aars necessary to e that the n’ way of the early state formation wasof the most important s (for m detail see Grinin Unization was connectedwith the centration of pee as a result of the coms mer of a few settlements ,usually, to ss from a military tat. Such a situation was tcal many regi:Ancient Greece (Gluskina 1983: 36; see also Frolov 1986: 44; Andreev ),Mesopotamia, in particular in the late 4th millennium and the 3rd millennium (Dya2000а, 1: 46), a ber of Acan regi; example, in Sast Madagascar in the 17 th

cent a few small states of the Betsileo ginated in this way (Kottak Claessenreece thisess was called sykismos .

Population centration cried in a rather sificant way h to the urbanizationand state formation process and develent. 22 In particular, the density of cacts withina ity is a very important factor of state formation (Grinin 2001–2006; A as this

18 This issue has been also considered in some previ publicati by the sec aut of this article (see,e rini.

19 The factors ofate formation arery numer (for more detail see Grinin 2007d) and their anals goes beyond the thirticle.

20 The role trat and external trade in the develent maearly states was very imtant. Maof them, like medieval Ghana, were (to Kubbel's ee ‘huge foreign trade superstructures’ (Kubbel

. The state mlization of the trade sources, eic imts, and trade ies was a veryimtant accumulationce withih states, according to ChaseD and Hall (.

21 For example, Dya maintains that in the late 4 th milleum BCE ‘the Sumerians began to getfa (by the stards of that time) yields from their fiel The wellbeing of the commties grewfast; the centration of the ation of each canal area around its cult center grew simultaneously.Thus, the settlement pattern chad rply – it seems that it was safer for the pee to keep tther:wealth aared, it cd be robbed, and it made se to defend it’. As a ret, the resettlement ofibitants of small villages to the area around the wall of a central temple became a characteristic processof thatriod (Dya 1983:.

22 The ation centration leads to the tial structurization of settlements, to which mrnarchaeolsts pay so much attention (see, e , Adams . And the hir the demac dety, themoreonounced theructurization (inclng the spatialructurizati (Gire 1991: 91).




density is hir in urban than rural societies, the itnetic processes within them have certainculiarities iomparison wite societies that lack cities.

T, state formation is connected rather tily with city formation even t the correlation between the sence of the state and the sence of the cities is still far from a hundred percent, t it is te high as some scars, example, Adams (1966) believed.Adams, in fact, cidered the sence of cities a necessary characteristic of the state. Of course, this relatihip is coincidental as economic, social, and many itical processes (inclng the s involving the institution of the state itself) of the state are intertwined with urbanization processes; to some extent they are based on it. On the other ha the stateiuences urbanization processes. The state is a complex intetive institution thatcentrates the develent of many relatihips within itself . Similarly, the city alsoimplies a complex centration cisting of geogracal, social, itical, and sacral, resources and assets. ‘The city is a direct tetal centration of a multiplicity of heterogenesactivities’ezer 1995: 23).

T , most fact of itnesis and state formation are connected with urbanizati The develent of religion and the ers' sacralization is inevitably connected with the develent of temple systems, temple cities, or cities that acted as centers of religi life.The immense role the war in theation the state isry well known ( Ambrosin995;Carneiro 1970, 1978; Southall 2000), and it is not coincidental that fortress cities werea predominant type of cities in the perion question. On the other hand, militarevastatioasone of the most important causes for the destruction and death of cities and the decline of a city's population. The formatiolite playe pivotal role in these processesut the elites tended to concentrate just in cities. It is also quite clear that the processes of social stratification and class formation proceeded in many ancient agricultural societies under a considerable influence of the ‘urban revolution’ (Alekshin 1986: 22).

The state is imsible without centralized power (see, e , Claessen 586–588;Claessen and Oosten 2; Claessen and van de Velde Ember and Ember158, 380; Fes and EvansPritchard Haas 235; Spencer 157, etc.; seealso Grinin 2001–2006, , ). So we believe that the relatihip between urbanization and the eution of statehood is especially transparent with respect to theformation and develent (as well as the iuence on social life) of the central settlement ofthe state (i.e., its capital [see below m detail Most ntly centralized er isgeogracally materialized as the main settlement of a count its capital (t there weresome excepti like the empire of rlema that lacked a real capital city [Devis221]). The e of centralized er is especially sificant in la develd states. It isdicult to restimate the e of such gigantic urban centers as e,stantile/Istal, Moscow and so on in the life of their respective empires; and it isimportant to note that the populationnsitye cities was exceptillygh.

It is also necessary to e that the vector of the state's activities laly d etermines theprocess of urbanizati its intensity and directi as well as the crete transformati ofcrete cities. By ‘crete transformati we mean the cttion of fortresses, thedesttion of cities during wars, the creation of cities as base stati or trade factes incred tetes (as was done, e.g., by Alexar the Great), as well as with colza tion




activities (as was typical for the Phoenicians, Greeks, Genoese, etc.). Sometimes the destruction of and enemies' cities and deportation of their population fed the growth of the vict' capitals,as this haned, example, in the 14 th cent with Samand (where craftsmen fromcred cities wereportedimur en mass).

In a ber of early and develd states, itical chas were connected with thetransfer of the capital from city to aher, or the cttion of a new capital. Forexample, in Japan in CE the capital was transfed by Empe Jomei (Pas 34);Sargon the Great made a vily mportant town Ad his capital (Dya 2000b:57). Andrew the Pi established his capital in the VladimirSuzdal Principality in a newtown, VladimirnaKlyazme 1966: 617). One can easily recollect cases when capitalswere erected ‘at a blank space’, as haned, example, during the formation of the GoldenHorde. As an example thest theveld states may mention the transfer bythe pharaformer Anatenhe Egyptian capital thewlylt AtatenHzonof Ate named after the newly inted sie deity Aten (see, e , TrirVi 2000 а: Aher fam example is the erection of the new siancapital Saint Peterseter the Great.

The processes of the growth and development of capitals (as well as urbanization on the whole) could be also affected by such political factors as the struggle against separatism and other activities aimed at strengthening centralized power. For example, for these purposes the center tried to attract the nobility to the capital, and sometimes their representatives (or children) were kept in the capital as honorable hostages to insure the loyalty of their parents and relatives; some ancient Chinese states of the Zhou period (Pokora 1978: 203) or Benin (Bondarenko 2001: 222–223) could be mentioned here as examples. However, such phenomena could be found not only among early states, but also among developed ones. For example, Qin Shi Huangdi, the founder of the first centralized Chinese empire, deported 120 thousand families of hereditary aristocracy, high-ranked officials and rich merchants to his capital Xianyang during the first year of the country's unification, 221 BCE (Perelomov 1962: 154). In the 17th – 19th centuries the Shōgun government of Japan had to look constantly after the activities of the daimyo (the local rulers) and to keep them as hostages in the capital (Galperin 1958; Guber et al. 1982; Saburo 1972: 142; Kuznetsov et al. 1988: 110–112). On the other hand, in Ottoman Egypt, the mamluk beys and other member of the top echelon of the Egyptian elite were ‘virtual hostages of the capital’, as they were afraid to leave Cairo for long because of the constant intrigues and acute competition among the mamluk houses (Kimche 1968: 457). In addition, their obligatory participation in the divans (governmental councils) demanded their presence in the capital. In Russia, Peter the Great in ordeo develop the new capital demanded from the top echelon of the elite to build houses in Saint Petersburg and to spend their considerable periods of time.

On the other hand, the development of cities is a necessary condition for the formation and growth of developed states (for more detail see Grinin 2006d, 2007d). In particular, the developed statehood implies some regional economic specialization, that is, the beginning formation of a unified economic organism in the respective country. For example, the formation of the ‘allRussian market’ began in the second half of the 17th century (Chromov 1988: 148– 152), whereas in China ‘the economic specialization of individual cities, areas and regions had become clear by the 16 th

centurySimonovskaya, Lapina 1987: 119). In Japan in the 17 th century we finome definite specialization oegionsn particular witespect tome industrial crops




– indigo, cotton, flax, sugarcane and so on – which tended to be cultivated in particular regions (Galperin 1958: 27). There was also some regional division of labor with respect to industrial products: various textiles, metal and lacquer products, paper, ceramics, porcelain, and so on. Osaka hosted not only the central market of the country, but also a rice exchange center which bought rice from local and regional farmers and gave credits against security of future crops (Kuznetsov et al. 1988: 115). In Britain, the unified national market had already formed by the 16th century and it developed actively throughout the whole century (Vinokurova 1993: 48; Lavrovsky and Barg 1958: 72). Naturally, such specialization influenced the dynamics of urban development.

Industrialization is a necessary condition for mature state development. Naturally,industrialization is intrinsically connected with vigorous urbanization processes inclam other thi, the develent of cities with m than million ibitants andintel miti to cities from the countide (see, e.g., Bessonov 1999; Dmitrievskaya1999). In ation to this, mat statehood is intrinsically connected with nati whereasthe latter is imsible without the ective excha of iation and commties, withoutaepvisia withi society, without a unified economic space.

Let us cider the relatihip between the size of the tet cled by thedeveld and mat states and their analogues, on the ha and the wd urbanatiheher (see Diams 3.1 a

Diagram 3.1. Dynamics of World Urban Population (thousands) and the Size of the Territory Controlled by

the Developed and Mature States and Their Analogues (thousands km2), 1000 BCE – 1900 CE

Notes: Data on urban ation for cities with > 10,000 ibitants. Data es : for the city population(for all the diagrams d in this article) – see Section 1 of this article. The dynamics of the size of theterritory crolled by the develd and mature states and their analogues have been calculated on thebasis of Tables and in Grinin and Korotayev Korotayev and Grinin Taagepera'sdatabase (Taagepera , 1978b, , the database Histcal Atlas of Esia(http://www.opestory.net), and the Atlas of the Wd Hist (O'Brien for all the diagrams of thepresent article.




Diagram 3.2. Correlation between World Urban Population (thousands) and the Size of the Territory Controlled by the Developed and Mature States and Their Analogues (thousands km2), 2100 BCE –

1900 CE (scatter plot with fitted regression line)

200 000

(thou

sand

s)

150 000

urba

n po

pula

tion

100 000

Wor

ld

50 000

0

0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000

Territory of developed and mature states (thousands sq. km)

Note: r = + 0,916; p <<

As we see, we do observe a really str itive correlation between the two variables in sti However, the relatip between them is in no way identical with a simple linear relatip, which is ecially clear if we consider the dynamics of the rective variables in a lrithmic scale (see Diagrams 3.3 and.

Diagram 3.3. Dmics of Worlrban Population (tnds) and the Size the Territory Crolled by the Develd ature States and Their Analogues (tnds km2)illErithmicale




Diagram 3.4. Correlation between the World's Urban Population (thousands) and the Size of the Territory Controlled by the Developed and Mature States and their Analogues (thousands km2),

2100 BCE – 1900 CE, phase portrait in logarithmic scale

As we see, the formation of the first cities and the first se of fast wth of the wd urban ation were ed in the 4 th and early 3rd millennia well before the formation of the first develd states and were connected with the develent of early states and their analogues. However, already the formation of the first develd state (in Egypt inthe mid2nd millennium ) acted the Wd System urban ation dynamics in a rathersificant way. Indeed, after the milleal station of the wd urban ation at the

thousand level, in the third rter of the 2 nd millennium we e a period ofrelatively fast growth of the wd urban ation that, according to Mlski's (2003)estimates, in the 13th cent exceeded (for the first time in an history) milli Notethat this was, to a very ciderable dee cisely to the wth of Egyptian cities. Itwas in Egypt where the last wd cities were localized in the sec half of the 2 nd

milleum . 23 On thehernd, the decline of theveld Egyptian state in the late 2 nd

23 In the meantime this was also connected with the growth of the area of early states and the general strehening of those states as a ret of the develent of bre metallurgy (e.g., in Achaean Greece,West Asia [Urartu, Mita, Assyria], and China). Thus, we observe cl li between the develent of new technoles, on the ha and statehood and urban e on the other. We also observecl li between the develent of the early state and urban growth. However, the fact that the largest world cities were centrated in the third rter of the milleum precisely in the first develdstate, in Egypt, sts that the li between urbanization and statehood acred new characteristics manifested in the correlation between the formation of megacities and the develd state. Note that the formation of the mature state also correlated with the formation of megacities with an order of mat




millennium cried in the most sificant way to the decline of the wd's urban ation that was obset this time.

general, with respect to the dynamics of the tet cled develd amatstates and their analogues, we find the same system of attract and se transiti that wasarlier (see Section 1his article) withspect to the wd'sati literacy,and itical centralizati With respect to this variable 24 we also e a se transition inthe 1st millennium , as a result of which the size of the tet cled by the develd states and their analogues w by an order of mat up to a 10million km2, and had itself in a new basin of attracti within which it fluctuated till the se transitionhe Mrn Age.

On the other ha withstang all the imssive s of the se transitiwith respect to all the above mentid icat of the Wd System develent, it isimsible to i a few important time lags during the se transition of the1st milleum the surge in the size of tet cled by the develd states (a ingeneral, the transition from the early to develd statehood at the scale of the Wd System) lad behind the se transition in the dynamics of the Wd System urban ation and urbanizati

This lag can be interpreted as evidence for the fact that the economic development of the World System at this time temporarily advanced beyond the World System's political development.25 Consequently, the transition of a number of early states to developed statehood (or its analogues) can be cidered as ng the level of itical develent up to thelevel of socioeconomic systems thatd ancedyond the political s withspect totheir complexity. We believe that the formation of h early statehood and of develd/mat statehood implies a certain basis without which its develent becomes imsible. 26

In the meantime should take into account the lowing nts that a ccount the lagin the growth of develd states and also account the ance of economic systemsr political systemsng the 1 st milleum BCE.

1. The growth of develd statehood (and its analogues) is y an (anced) componentof the we itnesis process of the respective peri Political cha(as well as the cha in other Wd System characteristics) occurred venly. Some societies develop early statehood whereas others m to the chiefdom level of itical organization (about multilinear and ven develent of mediumcomplex and complex itical systems see Grinin 2011b, Grinin and Korotayev , 2011). In theperiod in stion a very stantial part of the Wd System (especially at its peri had no statehood at all. Fher growth toward develd statehood became sible y after theformation of early statehood in stateless parts of the Wd System ( e.g., in most areas of

hir population thahe one found ihe megacities in develdates.24 In other words, the size of the territory controlled by developed and mature states and their analogues.25 Note that within the theory developed by the second author of this article, the economic-technological component of the World

System is denoted as the production principle, whereas its political component is denoted as the type of political organization of societies (Grinin 2003a, 2006a, 2006e, 2007d).

26 As was noted ae, in most cases such an economic basis was eitherrectly connected with the city formatiowth, acentration(and the urbanization process as a we), or it was connected with such processes that crie to the urbanization in some way or aher, or depet.



E). However, a l period of time this was sible to the lack of somenecessary technoles (firstll, thevelentechnol

2. However, the slow n of itical develent was total. On the habetween the 16th and 7th centes we do e the formation of newly develdstates; on the other ha that was a period when a la ber of new early states and theiranalogues were formed (see, e , Grinin et al. , It is important that within theWd System of the 2 nd and 1st millennia , early statehood cd develop withoutbeised on urbanizati trade and crafts.

On the ha this led to the lag between urbanization and develd statehood in thewd. On the other ha the transition of the early states to the develd statehood cdtake place to the undevelent of crafts and mats . One of the most importantfact was the absence of t my we sence wd have enormly facilitated the formation of trade connecti t very la tetes. Aher (and even mimportant) factor was the absence or undevelent of new technoles (both military and ilita – iherstace,etall

Natlly, it aars necessary to take into account the fact that the transition to i metallurgy did lead automatically to the transition to develd (and even early) statebecause this transition can y take place when a ber conditi are sent.27 However, without iron metallurgy the expansion of developed statehood was strongly hindered; consequently, at this time, the formation of developed statehood was y obsed under exceptil circumstances.

As was mentid in Section 2 of this article, the first states emed within the WdSystem (as well as, natlly, in the wd in general) in the 4 th and early 3rd millea(see, e , Vi 2000b: 150–151; Dya 2000 а: 45–56; Baines and Yoffee199; Wri 386; LambeKarlki They aared on the basis ofintensive igated aculture. T, there are certain to connect state formation withthe finalization of the acultural reuti However, an important thetical clarification is necessary at this nt, which is important the eanation of the abovementid time lag between the Wd System se transition al the urbanization dimension and al the dimension of the ension of develd state We believe that the arian reution isof te major production reuti (in ation to the industrial and iati scientific

reuti). These reuti were the most important technolcal and economicbenchma of the Wd System develent. However, at the Wd System level each of these reuti occurred in two ses (for m detail see Grinin , , 2007b,; As rega the arian reuti its first se was connected with thetransition to mitive (hoe) extensive acult and mitive he whereas its sec se involved the transition to igated or gated plow acult. In general, thesec se of the arian reution may be regad as the transition to the intensive aor partly laboreconomizing acult, that is, to the acultl systems that radicallyincreased the productivity of land aor the productivity of la in the land cultivation during

27 Including new administrative and political technologies, a certain level of social and ethnic development, elaborated law and court system,property relations, developed ideologies, strong economic links and so on. Thus, although iron items started to be used occasionally rather early (e.g., among the Hittites), among other things for military purposes, this was not sufficient for the transition to the developed statehood.




critically important (‘buseasonshear. For the sakevity this secsehe aculturalution willed below simplsntensive’.

Note that the gap between these two ses occed a few millea tween the 84th millea ). Primary state formation should be connected with the sec ntensive’)se of the arian reuti 28 However, a thetically important nt is that in the areasof la sropical/tical rivers and s soils the transition to igated aculture (thatformed the economic basis the develent of states and civilizati) did generallyneed any specialized new ts and materials ( e.g., metals). What is m, the ts themselvessometimes remained rather mitive. In such cases the most important component of the sec se of acultl reution was connected with the ts, with igationtecs, imd esticates, agronomic knoww that made it sible to ng fertilela under cultivati or to increase sificantly the productivity of la On the other hain the 4th milleum even a few centes earlier) new ts (as well as the beging the economic use of aw energy source) still in the form of primitive scratchplows and theuse of n (with the help of yokes) plowing and transportation (see, e ,Kras Srelman 1988). Of course, this was a very sificant technolcal ance.However, it aars necessary to emsize that the mary state formation was styconnected either withe intionheow, or theehe energy of the draft animals. 29

However, natl eronment with s and fertile soils liable igation and whereproductive aculture (that is able to support srcomplex itical stts) is siblewithout metal ts are rather limited. And what was possible in some Near Eastern areas on the basis of simple inantly etallic ts (the formation of civilizati, cities,early, and later develd, states and their analogues) was simply imsible in most other areas of Asia, E, and Aca. In most of these areas the formation of srcomplex itical stts became possible y after a litatively new level of technolcaldevelent had been achieved (in particular, after the inttion of the i metallurgy). The sad of civilizatinizati and statehood tany tetes wasred bythe lack of i metallurgy (and some other technoles). These technoles were inted inthe late 2nd and 1st millea , and diffused t the Wd System in the 1 st

millennium (note that they y reached many of its periral parts in the sec half ofthis milleum). 30

28 Er Gellner ( 115) believes that a large gap between beging of f production and stateformation is ‘cifically disastrous’ for those theories that connect the state formation and the agriculturalreuti Note that the abovescussedint eliminates thiection.

29 The fact that states and civilizati existed for many centuries supports this statement. In principle, incific erents the state formation and primary urbanization cd take place without metal tsand draft animals, on the basis of vari irrigation and agricultural selection tecs ( e , Kuzmischev.

30 Occasil iron production was already known in the 3 rd milleum BCE, ever, more or lesseffective technoles of lowlity steel production were develd in the mid2 nd century BCE, mlikely isia Mi (see, e , Chubarov . The irmetallurgot e develent within theHittite state that kept its monopoly r it; ever, this technol remained rather primitive. Thebreakdown of the Hittite Ki led to the end of this monopoly and to the beging of the diffon ofthe iron metallurgy thr the World System (Gra Giorgadze 122–123; Dya400). In the early 1 st milleum BCE (and ecially in the first half of this milleum) the iron

metallurgy already diffd rather widely thr the Mie East and Eur (Chubarov 109,114; Gra Kolya and Sev 211–212; Devis 61; Zlatkovskaya




Only the inttion of plows with i plhares in ction with ective ft animals and hasses made it sible to ca the sec se of the arian reutionin most parts of Esia. The new civilization y proliferated to most parts of the Old Wd with the intion of i metall example, in SubSaharan Aca civilizati ydeveld after the inttion of the s with i working parts which, using Satts (1982: 131) expressi led to prosperity (see also Shi Kubbel Sell 1981). Ective acult y occurred in the Gas Valley with the inttion of i ts (Sharma 1987:

In most parts of Esia the sec se of the arian reution was connected with theinttion of i ts, heavy plows li plows with i plhares), as well asective hass ft animals. 31 The very nciple of plow acult was borrowed byEans from West Asia, in E the plow was sificantly imd. This version of the sec se of the acultl reution was valent in Esia and Nh Aca in the areasgated acult.

Yet, when these technoles (and with them the early statehood and its analogues) sad to new tetes, the above mentid lag between urbanization and develd statehood was temporarily amplified. According to the the proposed by the sec aut of this article (see Section 2 of this article), develd statehood can y aar within a tet that hasbeen pared this histcally, cultlly, and economically; and such a paration needsa ciderable period of time. Objectively, the urban wth pared the formation ofdeveld statehood aits proliferation to new tetes, whereas cities, seng as economicand itical centers, created a netw that was necessary a new se transition thatinvolved thesehe Wd System t qualitativelyw levelomplexity .

Let us ret to an earlier period when the proliferation of develd states ladbehind the formation of new early states and their analogues (i.e. between the2nd millennium and the first half of the 1 st milleum ). Already in the e Age,in the late 3rd milleum we e in the Near East a complex ml of cultlinteraction between societies stretching from the Meditenean to the Valley, and theCentral Asia to the Persian Gulf (see, e , LambeKarlki 12). As a result, weobse the formation of cities, early states, and their analogues in tetes that were adjacentto the centers of first Near Eastern civilizations (and first developed states and their analogues) onthe basis of soils that were relatively easy to cultivate, copper and e metallintetil division of labor, trade and so However, the formation of develd states inthese tetes was still hiy ematic without wide proliferation of i metallmilitary mzation (based on indheechnolcal and economic imments.

It aars necessary at this nt to answer the lowing sti why during this p erioddid a develd state aar in Egypt (and its analogues – in Mesopotamia)? One has to mention here, first of all, the extremely high productivity of acult that ted to result in very high ation densities, implying the need a m of administration relying m on

n particular, Greececame a major ironoducer withihe Eastditerranean region already ihe 10th century BCE (Aeev 1988:.

31 There were other versions. For example, in precolal Trcal Africa we observe the combination of iron metallurgy and exteve agriculture. However, the latter slowed n the statehood develenti ratherficant wa




bureaucratic processes rather than on a military aratus. 32 A dirent situation was ed in the Wd System semiperiry and peri neither of which sessed such productiveacultural resources. In these areas the military component of the state played a m important e. Consently, develd states (and their analogues) cd y aar whenthere was a new productive basis that rered a ater economic colidation of the respective tetes. Other versi of develd states cd aar either on the basis oftable trade and the creation of ciderable wealth in cultural sector (that made it sible tmport food resources iiderable quantities as it was obsen Athens), or on the basis of ciderable technolcal imments in acult that cd make it asproductive as it was in Egypt and Mesopotamia in the 3rd and 2nd millea. In most places this y became sible after the inttion of i instents in acult, crafts, andmilitary sector (that was accompanied by a ciderable ber of other technolcal and strategic iti), as well as vigorous develent of trade (that also implied a litativedevelenty and credit instents) and sea transportati 33

Thus, in the 2nd milleum BCE and the first half of the 1 st milleum BCE the entialeconomic militarytechnolcal basis for the formation of new develd states withoutiron metallurgy other new technoles turns to e been entirely exhausted , whereasit t the new technoles a ciderable time to diffuse t the Wd System; thisseems to partly account the develd statehood formation (and diffusi lang behindthelnizationesses.

Dng the Mrn Age se transiti the rapid increase in the size of tetcled by develd (and mat) states had be a ciderable time before the start ofan elly rapid and impetuous wth in the wd's urban ati This increase intet and urban ation growth becomes especially clear if we cider the dynamics oftheseriables within the 2 nd milleumee Diam

32 A sificant role was also played the cial geac positiin the large river valleys (with recttgypte Secti thirticle).

33 As was mentid above, this process also implied the develent of new administrativeiticaltechnoles, socialtc, and ideolcal relati



Di Dynamics the World Urban Population (thouds) and the Size the TerritoryControlled bhe Developed and Mature States and Their Analethoudm 2),

–1900 CE

As we can see, during Phase Transition A3 the impetuous growth of the tet cledby develd states had be two centes before a comparably impetuous growth in thewd urban ation began. The impetuous growth of this tet in the 16 th – 18th

centes was connected, first of all, with the formation of the develd statehood in the Ottoman Empire, Mughal India, and sia, the resttion of the develd statehood in n,as well as with a vigorous tetal ension of the develd states of Asia (Qing na, Mughal India, Sefevid n, the Ottoman Empire), as well as the ension of Russia (thatunder its c immense tetories in Siberia) and a few West Ean states (note that some of them were already transforming into mat states) that began an active rseas ensihich we will cider itaillow

This lag needs special comments as it is connected witome specificats of develd states. On the ha these states create solid itical and itical li within therespective societies (for m detail, see Grinin 2006d, 2006f, 2007d); within thesetworks an especially important e was played by la cities, and especially capitals we ationcd be very high arian societies. For example, Istanbul, by 1500 the last city inE, had ‘achieved the size of the last city in East Asia iji by (ChaseDand Mang with a ation between thousand (Petyan

Note, however, that the ation of the last wd cities of the 8 th and 9th

centes, an and Baghdad, aar to have been even lar (Mlski 150–151,184)

On the other ha should t that the develd states of this period were inantly arian. That is why the leaders of such states were ntly interested in thecreation cities as military centers and outtss was done, e.g., by the sian state during its shward ension to the ste regi and were always interested in the furtherextensive growth their urban ati, especially in capitals where y elements of the swelling urban ation cd taten state stability. In ation to this, develd states




usually have a high military ential that makes it sible them to undertake vigorous ension to undeveld periries. However, such ension ntly involvesunderpopulated tetes (as, e , with the Russian ension into Siberia, or the Qing ension tastern Turkestan and Tibet); these tetes, it goes almost without sayiereusually eithernized,otallynized.

The most important nt is that in te states the main product was still acultl produce. According to Neomaltian mls, the ation of such states ted to their carrying capacity. Their iticaldemogracmics characterized the salledecular cycles’34 that incl recry ses, ses of relative rpopulati and ses of iticaldemograc collapses that resulted in state akdowns and cipit ationdeclines (see, e , Goldst Thin 2003, 2005 а, 2005b; Thin aKorotayevNefe Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina , 2006b; Korotayev and KhaltourinaKorotayev et al. 2011; Grinin and Korotayev 2012). The second author of this article has

come to the conclusion that though the carrying capacity was always limited, the above mentioned distinct secular cycles were typical exactly for the developed states (and much less typical for the early states [Grinin 2006c]). This is accounted for by the fact that, in contrast to early statesevelopetates are normally able tupport order within large territories, as well as economic development, trade, and monetary circulation for long periods of time. This makes it possible for the respective populations to approach rather closely the carrying capacity ceiling.

These iticaldemograc cycles produce an ambivalent iuence on urban ation dynamics. On the ha during the relative rpopulation ses, a ciderable part of rural ation te to be hed from the countide to the cities, which stimulates urbangrowth. As has been shown by Nefe (2004) with respect to na, relative rpopulation led to land shortage, and to the loss their land ciderable ber peasants. However,y some peasants who lost their la became tenants. Indeed, it s make sense a la to rent his land in plots barely sufficient to de subsistence a tenant andhis family. As the stard rent rate in na was 50 per cent, such plots wd be at leasttwice as la. Hence, if two poor peasants having minimum size plots each have to sell their la only one of them will able to accommte himself in hisllage as a tenant. Theherwill have to accommte himself in some other ways. One of the sibilities was to find altetive emplent in the cultural sect e , in cities. As was suggested by Nefedov, the very process described above wd in fact tend to create new sibilitiessuch emplent, as landowners were m likely than poor farmers to goods produced in cities. This is confirmed by histcal data icating that the fastest wth of cities (a hence, rall sociocultl complexity) te to occur during the last ses of itical demograc cycles (see, e , Nefe Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina 2006b: 86). On the other ha in the srcomplex arian societies during the recry growth sesin cases of sificant growth of carrying capacity) the rall demograc growth rates

were much faster than the rates of the urban ation growth. Preindustrial cities (and especially the la s) were characterized by the commr mality rates that were muchhir than the ones observed in rural areas, whereas the average life expectancies in the cities were significantly lower than in the countryside. In fact, in many large preindustrial cities mality rates exceeded fertility rates, in such cities the natl ation growth rates were

34 As these cycles last for one-two centuries, Turchin (2003, 2005b) suggested to denote them as ‘secular cycles’.



negative, and their demograc reproduction t place to the ation iux from thecountide (see, e , McNeill Sty 520; Lee and Wang DiamMason 34). sently, when the rural ati had acceptable levels of life (which was obsed during recry ses, or when important technolcal itiraised the carrying capacity shay) the rural ati ted to m to the cities, andthe ion of the citydwellers in the rall ation ted to decline (as was ed,e.g., in Russia, or na in the 18 th cent [Nefe 188; Korotayev, Malkov, andKhaltourina 2006b]).

The proliferation of develd statehood was an important component of the se transition of the 1st milleum and cried in a rather sificant way tothe surge in the world's urbanization to qualitatively higher levels. Indeed, developed statehood makes it possible to sustain, within a given territory, a higher population (thus, it actually increases carrying capacity [Turchin 2003: 120–122]). Developed urbanization also ‘allows’ the population to approach rather closely the carrying capacity ceiling, which, as was noted above, within the conditions of supercomplex agrarian societies stimulates urbanization. As a result, developed states are typically characterized by such values of both the overall urban population and urbanization level (i.e., the urban population proportion within the overall population) that are significantly higher than those typical for the early states.

On the other ha the ‘secular’ iticaldemograc cycles tcal develd states create, to a ciderable dee, an ‘attractor ect’. Indeed, at te cycle ses when arather fast overall population growth was observed, cities grew relatively slowly, whereas urban growth acceleration was normally observed within those cycle phases when the overall population growth rates declined. Of course, the results of such urban growth differed dramatically from the one observeuring the phase transition periods when urbanization growth was observed against the background of accelerating overall population growth rates (which, in fact, produces just the phase transition effect)n additionuring politicaldemographic collapsesthe urban population declined in an especially dramatic way; all these taken together produce preciselhe effect of ‘wandering’ around the B2 attractor, the attractor of supercomplex agrarian society (that is typically organized politically just as the developed state).

In general, during the 16th – 18th centes, develd states cd sec such an urban wth that wd match the extent of their tetal ensi It is also entirely clear that atthis time a solid basis a setransition t of urban growth cd y be created bya new, industrial, production nciple, and by the old craftarian . As its formation and proliferation t a ciderable period of time, urbanization was to lag behind the tetal growth of the mat states. However, it should be taken into account that the accelerating growth of h the rall and urban ation within the develd states (evenwhen it was not accompanied sificant increase ihe proportionheationthe overall population), as well as the creation ciderable number of new cities created a solid basis the forthcoming industrialization se and the comitant eosive urbanizati

The growth of the develd states' tet was ed y with respect to the Asian states, also the Ean s rst of all, with respect to sia, Spain, Pl,Austria, the Netherla, and Eand). Note that in the last case this ension is directly




connected with the beging of the transition to the industrial nciple of production (Grinin , ). And already the first ses of this transition led to a rather sificant progresscisely in te sres (such as seafaring and military technoles) that cried to the accelerationetal ension of develdet al mat) states.

Notwithstang all the arent ascity of the two processes in sti they weretily interconnected. For example, the Ean colal ension played a critically important e in the inttion of New Wd esticates to the Old Wd acultlsystems and the processes of mary accumulation of capital. These processes directly pared the Wd System to acultl mzation and the industrial reution thatbegan in the late 18th century. Precisely the combined acti of acultl mzation and the industrialution led the eosive growthhe wd urban populationng Phase Transition A3.35

The tight interconnectedness of the dynamics of developed statehood and the urbanization of the World System looks especially salient if we consider the population dynamics of megacities (i.e. cities with more than 200 thousand inhabitants each) (see Diagrams 3.6 and 3.7).36

Di 3.6. Dynamics of the World Meities' Population (hundreds)d the Territory the Developedand Mature States and Their Analethoudm 2), till CE

35 Rather large cities occasilly develd also in the New World . For example, in the h century inBolivia a rather large city, Villa Imperial de Potosi formed as a center of silver amalgamation iries(according te estimates, itation at its peak ceach 120 tnd [Baks 1986:).

36 Note that, to the fact that in this case we have a considerable ber of data nts at dil, wecan observe better the cyclical and stochastic components of the dynamics of the variables in stioning the erarcomplex agrarian societies, that is, their fluctuatiround Attractor В



Di 3.7. Correlation between the World Meities' Population (hundreds) and the Territory theDeveloped and Mature States and Their Analethoudm 2), 2100 BCE –E,

ph portrait in double logarithmicale

As we see, the ssm of the se transiti is expressed here even m clearly.Cities with m than thousand ibitants first aar in the sec half of the1st millennium te simultanely with the impetuous growth of tet cled bythe develd states that was ed in cisely the same period of time. Stabilization of thesize of this tet at a level a 10 million km 2 in the early 1st millennium CE wasaccompanied by the stabilization of the Wd System's 37 megacities' ation at a levela 1 milli T, h variables themselves simultanely in the attraction basinof the srcomplex arian society hat is m, they started their mment thisbasin of attraction in a rather simultane way, in the sec half of the 15 th cent (to aciderable extent in connection with the beging of the Wd System transition to theindustrialtion principleee, e rinin 2007d]).

We believe this scity is coincidental at all. The nt is that the industrial megacities were considerablee, a creationheveld state

Develd statehood is generally imsible without megacities that act as its c (for m detail see Grinin On the other ha these were just the la develd statesthat cd support the megacities' reproduction in the industrial eh. What is m, such states natlly created megacities. Indeed, the formation of develd statehood implied wth of the administrative aratus complexity (incl natlly, the complexity of thecentral administrative aratus) by anr of mat.

Hence, the capital of a large developed preindustrial state had to accommodate this complex central apparatushicmplied the presence iuch a capital oot only a verarge numbefadministrators and auxiliary technical staff, but also of an even larger number of craftsmen,

37 Note that all the world megacities (i.e., the cities with more than 200 thousand inhabitants) were always situated just within the World System.



merchants anervice providers where necessarupport the functioninhe former . Aswas mentid above, such capitals ted to centrate a stantial part of nobility(inclng even te of its members who were at the state sece) and milita Ination to this, develd statehood implies that the system of resource accumulation andredistriion through the administrative center is also m develd by an order ofmat than in the early states, which led to a sharp increase in resource centration levels within such centers. Especially high levels of resource centration were ed in the administrative centers of the last develd states, which attracted ciderable bersof pee even if they were eged directly in seng theneeds of the centraladministrative aratus of such a state. Against this bac it s aarcoincidental at all that the majty of megacities registered by er's database or to1801 were hing else capitals of la develd/mat statesmpires’. Note also thatin general, of megacities (with m than thousand ibitants) registered byer's database or to megacities ( i.e. m than 88 %) were situated withinthe tet cled by develd/mature states and their analogues (Chaer 461–

which can be cidered as atil evidence supporting the statement that theindustrial megacites were created up to a very ciderable dee just by the develdstate

Let us cider the correlation between the dynamics of tet cled bydeveld/mat states and the wd's megaurbanization dynamics ( i.e., the dynamics of thewd megacities' ation as a ion of the total ation of the wd ) (seeDiams

Di Dynamics of World Merbanization (proportion meities' population in the totalpopulation the world , ‰) an the Territory Controlled beveloped/Mature States and

Their Analemillionm 2)ill 1950



Di 3.9. Dynamics World Merbanization (proportion meities' population in the totalpopulation the world , ‰) an the Territory Controlled beveloped/Mature Statesd

Their Analemillionm 2) CE

Diam Dynamics of World Merbanization (proportion meities' population in the totalpopulation the world , ‰) and the Territory Controlled beveloped/Mature Statesd

Their Analogues (millionm 2), till 1950, ph portrait in double logarithmicale

As we see, the sharp increase in the territory controlled by developed states observed in the second half of the 1st millennium BCE was quite predictably accompanied by the formation of the first megacities. Bhe enhis millennium the world's megaurbanization rate happroached1 % (or 10 ‰), whereas the developed states' territory had reached 10 million km2. After this the respective variables remained around this level for about a millennium and a half. The World System found itself withihe supercomplex agrarian societttraction basinhe territorhe



developed states started its movement from this basittraction ihe late 15 th century, that is,years before the megaurbanizati This s cradict the fact that the megacities'

rall ation started growing rather rapidly simultanely with the start of the impetuousgrowth of the develd states' tet in the late 15 th century. Let us recollect that teprocesses t place against the bac of the hyperbolic growth of the World System'spopulation (Korotayev, Malkov, and Khaltourina 2006a). As a result, even though the world megacities' population grew by 215 % between 1500 and 1800, its proportion in the overall population of the world (i.e. the World System urbanization) increased by less than 50 %. Thus, by the early 19th century with respect to its megaurbanization rate, the World System still remained within the attraction basin of the supercomplex agrarian society, which it only left and began its unequivocal movement (= phase transition) towards the next attractor in the 19th century.

This is te eicable, because the sec se of the industrial reution (the actual industrial akt had y begun, and by that time it had emced y country –Eand (see, e , Kles Dietz Herson Plys CilaStea Lieberman 1972 ); hence, it had proliferated suffi ciently. In themeantime, the World System could only reach a qualitatively higher level of megaurbanizationthrough adoptin new economic basis, whereas the development of thissis haached anecessary ume by the early 19 th century. It some resembles the situation of the 2 nd

millennium when the tetes where the develd states cd aar with theavailable (at that time) limited technolcal basis had been eusted; similarly the entialof the megacities' develent on the old srcomplex acultl technolcal basis hadbeen almost entirely eusted by the 19 th cent and the further megaurbanizationakthrough became y possible through the Wd System transition to a new production nciple, the industrial one.

Note that a similar pict is obsed with respect to the rall gll urbanization dynamics (i.e. the dynamics of the ion of ation living in cities with m than 10,000 ibitants ihe total populationhe wd) (see Diams 3.11–3.12).



Di 3.11. Global Urbanization Dynamic= dynamics of proportion population cities with >10,000 inhabitantn the total population the world, %) and Dynamics TerritoryControlled beveloped/Mature States and Their Analemillionm 2)ill 1950

Di 3.12. Global Urbanization Dynamic= dynamics of proportion population cities with >10,000 inhabitantn the total population the world, %) and Dynamics Territory

Controlled beveloped/Mature States and Their Analemillionm 2) −1950 CE

We wd cider as a correlate to the urbanization eosion of the 19 th and 20th centesin the sre of itical develent, the wth of the tet cled bythe develd/mat states, , instead, the wave of the formati proliferati andstrehening of the mat state that was obsed in these centes and that in the20th cent engulfed almost the we of planet. As rega the tet cled by the



develd and mat states, already in the late 19 th cent itcame rather close to thesattion nt (corresng just to the tet of all the ibitable laass ofplanet), which te dictably led to a certain slowdown in the rate of increase in the value ofthespectiveriable.

Finally, we wd like to stress that, our ntew, urbanizati the one hand,the grh of develd mature state on the other, are just mutly

connected do just influence each other (as shown above) – they are twodifferent aspects of process, the process of the ld System develent. That is why itmakes sense to cl this article with a cideration of their intelatihips in themew of the general process of the develent of the Wd System as a we. TheWd System is an extremely wide suprasocietal system that tes a very la ber ofsocietieswith vari li that at the early stages of their develent were mostlyiation (and onlyrtly technolcal diffusi li. However, at later stages we obsethe growth of the importance of iticalmilitary and economic li. identally, the latter is connected with the develent of new commcation technoles. Consently, the transition of the Wd System through each new stage of its eution was connected with the develent of the wd's economy, trade, diffusion of new technoles and so and allthis taken tther led to new waves of city wth. We can e the lowing general rearitiesd Systemvelent:

a) The very transition of it from stage to aher was pared every time by suchena of its itical and urban organization that were systemic an earlier stageof its develent. And this is te eicable, as new ena must develop within anearlier stage creating a new c the diffusion of new systemic characteristics. Amother thi this accounts a considerable time lag between the formation of the firstdeveld states and the proliferation of the develd statehood t the WdSystem. In some areas (as in Egypt and Mesopotamia) a lead in the develent of the itical system relative to the rall level of Wd System develent was sible;ever, the further itical develent needed a considerable cha of the Wd System as a we.

b) The Wd System transition to a new stage produces a cumulative ect of the diffusion (through wi mzati forced transformation and so of new ena to te tetes thatiled to develop sucena ipently.

c) The develent of itical and urban systems mutually reied each other, whereas some period the lead belonged to the itical develent, while in theotherri itlonged thevelentheystems.

The first stage of the ld System corres to the period of the Wd Systemformation and the develents the first cities and complex ities on its basis; it e with Phase Transition A1 to the complex arian systems. It aars lcal to connect it with the first se of the arian reution and the diffusion of its results. It corresapproximately to the period between the 10th and 4th millennia inclucive. 38 At the end of38 Naturally, we are aking about the m anced areas of the Near East for w we date the first

se of the agrarian reution to the period between the h/9th and 6th millea BCE (see Grinin




this periwe obse the formation of therst states aa we system of cities, whereas we find a rather complex urban society in the Near East (see, e , LambeKarlkiHowever, a real proliferation of h cities and statehood (as well as its analogues) is obsed during thext stage.

The second stage of the World System development corresponds to the second phase of the agrarian revolution, or to the attraction basin of complex agrarian society (В1) and the beginning of Phase Transition А2 to the supercomplex agrarian society (the 3rd millennium the first half of the 1st millennium BCE). During Phase Transition A1 we observed the transition to intensive irrigation agriculture that provided a basis for the formation of the first states and the growth of cities. The processes of the new states and cities' formation (as well as processes of their disintegration, which created the attractor effect) continued during the whole of the B1 period. At the end of this stage, during Phase Transition A2, the agrarian revolution was finalized through the diffusion of effective plow agrarian technologies employing iron tools. As a result we observe the proliferation of economic links throughout very large parts of the World System, the extension of those links, and the formation of large areas of intensive wth. New itical stts were develd, inclng the formation of the first reallylascale empires.

, 2006g). It is te clear that for other regions, these dates are quite different, this is imtant for us in the present cext, as these areas were side of the nascent World Sem ing the period in sti What is more imtant looks as follows. We know the first stage of the World Sem develent worst of all (at least to the total ance of written sources for the period in sti. Hence, this stage has beened out just preliminarilIn realitwe aar to deal here with a few (or, at least, two) stages, that cd be vided into ages. Ied, there are certain gr to thatthe history of this period of the World Sem develent (whose ation exceeds the of all the other peri taken tther) had a rather complex structure. For example, cd st a distinctionof theage the Worlystemnesiry the 10th – 6tillea BCE)as mentibove,it cd be connected with the first se of the agrarian reution in the Near East. The sec stage(ry the 6th – 4th millea BCE) is connected with the wide diffon of the agrarian reution achievements, the pronounced eon of the area of the agrarian production principle, the production diversificati significant growth of iocultural complexity, increase in the lity and dety of the World Sem links. It may be considered as the stage of the finalization of the World Sem formati On the other ha within the period between the h and 4th millea BCE can tentatively detect a certain system of attractors and se trations. First of all, in the h and 9th millea BCE in the coreof the nascent World System (within the Fertile Crescent) we are dealing with the se tratifrom the inteve foraging ieties to the simple agrarian s (for the region in stion the period of simple agrarian ieties ry corresponds to the PrePottery Neolithic peri that t place (see, e.g.,Srelman 1986: 251; Diam 131–136; Kuijt C. Ember, M. Ember, andPeregrine 164–165). However, already the World Sem protban agrarian cultures of the 6th –4th millea cd be hardly called ‘simple’ – as has been convinciy shown by Berezkin ( .We rather deal here with mediumcomplexity agrarian ieties the tration to which (very ry corresponding to the tration from the PrePottery Neolithic to the Pottery ) in the World Sem core areas aars to have taken place in the 7th and 6th millea, when we observe the formation of a ber of ‘protocities’ (`Ain Ghazal, Beisamoun, Beida, Abu Hureira, Çatal Hüyük) with the estimated ation of around 2000 (or more) each, which is by an order of mat hir than the settlement size tcalfor simple agrarian ieties (see, e.g., k note that this is why we prefer to dee thosecultures that are tcal for Attraction Basin В1 as ‘complex agrarian ieties’, whereas the s tcal for Attraction Basi3 we dee as ‘supercomplex agrarian ieties’). Note also that if the hypothesis on the presence of the above described tem of attraction basins and se trati of the World Semin the h – 4th millea BCE is cirmed, it will demand the reconsideration of y the peri of its develent, but al thesitions of itttractionsins and phase trati




In the 2nd millennium the first develd states aared. However, their productive basis was restricted to a few river valleys which had a very fec and t special ecolcal eronment.

The third stage of the ld System development is a period of the arian civilizati' matty, which correspond to the end of Phase Transition A2 and the attractionbasin of the srcomplex arian society ( В This is a period starting in the sec half ofthe 1st milleum and eng in the first half of the 2 nd milleum CE. At the begingof this stage the proliferation of develd statehood eliminated its lang behindurbanizati and we see that in theess Phase Transition A2 (in the 1 st millennium )it acred a solid tetal basis and a ciderable dee of stability. Indeed,withstang the akdowns that a ber of develd states erienced withinAttraction Basin during the respective period (the 1 st millennium CE and the first half ofthe 2nd millennium CE) the rall tet (and ati cled by the develd statesremained within the same order of mat. This generally suggests a state of relativestability of the Wd System, withstang all the matic perturbati that wereed in its vari ctituent parts. As a result the Wd System fluctuated in the vicinity of Attractor B2 up to Phase Transition A

However, at the end of this period we observe important changes in urban development in cities of the World System. In the first half of the 2nd century CE this is clearly manifested in the appearance of a very la ber of new cities in E (both in its West and East) anda rather intensive rall urban growth in this part of the Wd System. It should be ed that in many parts of E cities develd as autonom settlements specializing in crafts and trade, and this played an important e in the further develent of the Wd System. However, the cities grew not onln E also, for example, inntral Asia; a longtermtrend towa urban growth can be traced in the 10 th – 16th centes in na; 39 cities aaredand w in many areas that were inteted in the Wd System during the period instion – in Japan, Sast Asia, at the East Acan coast, in the Acan regiimmediately Sh of the Sahara, and so on (see, e , er Wilkinson 1993). Asystem of land trade routs (that ectively connected most ctituent parts of the Wd System) was established t the tet of the M States. At the end of the periin the 13th – 15th centes the first time after the akdown of the an Empire, we e the formation of develd states (that played a very sificant e in the subsent develent of the Wd System) in E. Ps of a new t of economy wereformed in a belt stretching from Nhern Italy through Shern Germany to the Netherla (see, e , Bel 1965; Wallerstein 1974).

The fourth stage of the World System development is a period from the 15th century up to the early 18th century, which corresponds to the final period of the World System development within the attraction basin of the supercomplex agrarian society (В2), the period of the completion of accumulation of those conditions that were necessary for the start of PhaseTransition A3his stage is connected with the start (the first phase) ohe trial Reutionand the at geograc discries that gave a erful impetus to Wd System

39 On the other ha it is necery to e the ance of any sificant urban growth (even as a tre ingthe we period in stion in e m ancient World Sem centers, for example, in Egypt and Levant (Bol.



develent. First of all, the Wd System erienced a radical tetal ensisecondly, it transformed into what Wallerstein (1974, dees as thecapitalist wystem, as its ctituent parts started to be connected m and m with the k commty exchas. Dng this period the main Wd System chas were directly connected so much with the wth of the cities as base stati and commcation netws within thed rs the Wd Systems, rather with sea ensionto new la, which became y sible through the develent of shilding and navigation technoles.

Dng this period urban growth aars to have been connected, first of all, with itical processes, especially with the above mentid proliferation and strehening of develd statehood (i.e., the formation of develd capitals, growth of regil megacities, and so on). Un growth was also connected with the formation of a develd statehood and the strehening of intel mats; whereas the Mrn Age formation of develd statehoodalso implied a certain industrial develent in connection with the salled ‘Military Reutihe th a th centesee, e , Duffy 1980; Downing 1992).

At the end of this period we e the formation of the first mat states and the first industrial zs.

The fi stage of the ld System development corres to the first part of PhaseTransition А3 and is directly connected with the sec se of the Industrial Reution ( i.e.with the industrial akthrough of the 18 th and 19th centes), especially with thedevelent of transportation and commcation technoles that raised by orders ofmat the dee of the Wd System inteti which became inteted by erfuland constant currents of commties, iati and seces that stand in sharp crastwith vi disci and gmentary technolcal diffusion waves. The WdSystem becamermly inteted by the intetil divisiof labor. The sec phase of theIndustrial Reution was issoly connected y with the wth of cities, alsowith a radical growth of the dee of urbanization ( i.e. the ion of citydwellers in therall ation), because during this period industries develd mostly within cities. Thissituation was accompanied by (and in part a result the growth in the productivity of la inacult to a very ciderable dee to the inttion of urban industrialproducts – vari acultural ts, machines, mineral fertilizers, pesticides and so on). Thisincrease in the wth of the productivity of acultl la pushed the excess ationinto the cities where the resentatives of this excess ted to find that it was possible to get j there just because of the impetuous growth of the urban industries and accompang sece sect that demad m and m working ha w, ever, the neweconomy managed to feed te successly cisely to the growth of acultlproductivity. Natlly, on the ha such develents led to a vigorous increase ingll urbanization that against the bac of the hyperbolic growth of the wdation led to an eosive, tichyperbolic wth of the wd urban ation (see Section 1aeosive growtn the number of megacities and their sizes; on theherthese develents also cried to the radical transformation of statehood and its se transition to a new level in itsvelent – to mat state its t the transition develd to mat statehood cried to the amplification of the gll urbanization processes.




The sixth stage of the World System development is connected with the informationscientific revolution of the second half ohe 20 th century (which corresponds to the secontageof Phase Transition A3); howeveronsideration of this periods well as of the seventh stage ofthe ld System development (corresng to the eh of the Wd System enteringAttractionsi3) goesyond the schis article.

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