Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT)

Dr. Thomas E. Drennen, Sandia National LaboratoriesJoel S. Andruski and Ryan Williams

Department of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges

Timothy J. Skone, P.E. and Justin M. AdderOffice of Strategic Energy Analysis and Planning, NETL

32nd USAEE/IAEE North American Conference

Anchorage, Alaska

July 28 – 31, 2013

SAND2013-5876C

Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security

Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT)

1

Introduction• The Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT) is a Department of Energy-funded collaboration

between the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). • This high-level, dynamic model calculates production costs and tracks environmental performance—

providing users with the total amount of greenhouse gases created at each of five stages of the technology’s life—for a range of electricity generation technologies.

• Policy makers, students, and stakeholders can use this tool to consider the entire life cycle of an energy technology, from raw materials acquisition to final product transport.

• This intuitive tool includes four main sections: – The “Production Analysis” section calculates the cost of electricity (in $/kWh) for each option and

allows users to explore key sensitivities. – The “Environmental Performance” section estimates aggregate greenhouse gas and non-greenhouse

gas emissions, as well as water usage at each stage in the life cycle of electricity production. – The “Costs vs. Emissions” section explores the tradeoffs between costs (in $/kWh) and greenhouse

gas emissions (in kg CO2 equivalent/MWh). – The “Sensitivity Analysis” section of Power LCAT allows variation of several assumptions—such as

capital costs, operations and fuel costs, interest rates, efficiency, and capacity factors—simultaneously while providing graphical representation of the result.

• Power LCAT provides users with a clear understanding of the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with various electricity production options.

2

Power LCAT Technologies• The technology options are based on detailed life cycle analysis reports conducted by NETL and include:

• Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC), • Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC), • Supercritical Pulverized Coal (SCPC), • Existing Pulverized Coal (EXPC), • Existing (EXNUC) and new Nuclear (Gen III Plus), and • Onshore Wind (with and without backup power).

• The goal of the NETL studies are to compare existing and future technology options using a life cycle analysis (LCA) which include:

• Raw Material Acquisition• Raw Material Transport• Energy Conversion Facility• Product Transport• End Use

• All of the fossil fuel technologies also include an option for including carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCS).

3

Production Analysis

0306090

120150

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

02468

10

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000

Capacity Factor 80 %

Transmission Loss 7 %

Plant Life 30 yrs

Heat Rate 8,756 Btu/ kWh

CO2 Capture 0%

Table0.0790

1 2 3 4 5 60

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

COE

($/k

Wh)

0.1044 0.0601 0.1028 0.0652 0.0922

1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1I GCC I GCC CCS SCPC SCPC CCS NGCC CCSNGCC

Graph

1.51 $/ MMBtu

FI XED O&M VARI ABLE O&MFUEL COST

(COAL)

0.0073 $/ kWh79.0067 $/ kW

CAPI TAL COST

2,446.56 $/ kW

Master Sheet

Technical

Without CCS

Environmental Performance Sensitivity AnalysisProduction Analysis Costs vs Emissions

With CCS

Finance

NGCCIGCC SCPC EXPC USCPC EXNUC WIND USER DEFINEDGEN III+ Nuclear

This section calculates the cost of electricity (in $/kWh) for each option and allows users to explore key sensitivities. Color-coded cost components allow for quick understanding of key sensitivities.

4

Production AnalysisAt current natural gas prices ($3.68/MMBtu; 7/10/13), NGCC plants are the least cost option.

Uncertainty bars show the possible variation based on user-defined uncertainties.

5

Production AnalysisThe Financial Assumptions Screen allows user to vary financial parameters, including debt/equity financing rates, federal and state taxes, depreciation, construction time, CO2 taxes, and plant life.

6

Production AnalysisThis example illustrates the effect of CO2 taxes on the relative economics. A $55/tCO2 tax makes

SCPC with CCS cost competitive with SCPC without CCS.

7

17 476 935 1394 1853 2312 2771 3230 3689 4148 4607 5066 5525 5984 6443 6902 7361 7820 8279 8738 9197 96560

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

GH

G (

kg C

O2e

/MW

h)

1 2 3 4 5 6 #7 #8 #9 #100

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

GH

G (

kg C

O2e

/MW

h)

$/ kWhCarbon Dioxide 857.93 115.12 871.50 122.56 418.35 80.98Nitrous Oxidide 0.029 0.040 0.027 0.038 0.211 0.249

Methane 69.75 83.05 67.69 95.25 77.49 90.79Sulfur Hexafluoride 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.27 3.27

Total (kg CO2e/ MWh) 930.91 201.41 942.41 221.05 499.32 175.30

I GCC I GCC CCS SCPC SCPC CCS NGCC CCSNGCC

2001 I PCC GWP 20-Yr Time Horizon2001 I PCC GWP 100-Yr Time Horizon2001 I PCC GWP 500-Yr Time Horizon2007 I PCC GWP 20-Yr Time Horizon2007 I PCC GWP 100-Yr Time Horizon2007 I PCC GWP 500-Yr Time Horizon

Global Warming Potential Assumptions1 2 3 4 5 6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

GH

G (

unit

s of

CO

2e/M

Wh)

930.91 201.41 942.41 221.05 499.32 175.3

11 11 11 11 11 11I GCC I GCC CCS SCPC SCPC CCS NGCC CCSNGCC

Master Sheet GHG - Life Cycle Analysis in

Raw Material AcquisitionRaw Material TransportEnergy Conversion FacilityProduct TransportLife Cycle Analysis Total

Life Cycle Analysis Stages

Total kg CO2e/ MWh

kg CO2e/ MWh

GHG (kg CO2e/MWh)

Carbon Equivalent Benchmark

1,000 kg CO2e/ MWh

2,205 lb CO2e/ MWh

No CO2e BenchmarkDisplay CO2e Benchmark



LC Greenhouse Gases Other LC Environmental Factors Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases

Environmental PerformanceThis section tracks the life cycle emissions of key greenhouse gases (GHG), other pollutants, and

water withdrawals and consumption.

8

$/ kWhStage 1 - RMA 2.90e-7 3.50e-7 2.90e-7 4.00e-7 1.99e-6 2.33e-6Stage 2 - RMT 1.70e-7 2.10e-7 9.20e-8 1.30e-7 1.65e-7 1.94e-7Stage 3 - ECF 1.30e-5 1.60e-5 4.50e-5 4.60e-5 2.71e-6 3.09e-6Stage 4 - PT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total (kg/ MWh) 1.35e-5 1.66e-5 4.54e-5 4.65e-5 4.87e-6 5.61e-6


RMA

RMT

ECF PT

Total

RMA

RMT

ECF PT

Total

RMA

RMT

ECF PT

Total

RMA

RMT

ECF PT

Total

RMA

RMT

ECF PT

Total

RMA

RMT

ECF PT

Total


5E-05

4E-05

3E-05

2E-05

1E-05

0

kg/M

Wh

1.35e-51.66e- 54.54e- 54.65e- 54.87e- 65.61e- 6

1.66e-51.66e- 54.54e- 54.65e- 54.87e- 65.61e- 6

4.54e-51.66e- 54.54e- 54.65e- 54.87e- 65.61e- 6

4.65e-51.66e- 54.54e- 54.65e- 54.87e- 65.61e- 6

4.87e-61.66e- 54.54e- 54.65e- 54.87e- 65.61e- 6

5.61e-61.66e- 54.54e- 54.65e- 54.87e- 65.61e- 6

Master SheetLead (Pb) - Life Cycle Analysis

(kg/MWh)

Environmental Performance

NH3Pb Hg CO NOx VOC PM Water Withdrawal Water ConsumptionSOx

Sensitivity AnalysisProduction Analysis Costs vs Emissions


Environmental PerformanceAlong with GHG emissions, this section gives static emissions metrics for several other

environmental factors on a life cycle basis: Pb, Hg, NH3, CO, NOx, SOx, VOC, PM, and H2O (withdrawals and consumption).

9

1 2 3 4 5 60

500

1,000

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3,000

LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

500

1,000

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LCO

E $/

kWh

1 2 3 4 5 60

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

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3,000

LCO

E $/

kWh

17 476 935 1394 1853 2312 2771 3230 3689 4148 4607 5066 5525 5984 6443 6902 7361 7820 8279 8738 9197 96560

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

GH

G (

kg C

O2e

/MW

h)

$/ kWhCarbon Dioxide 654.59 66.43 765.21 87.06 361.03 44.40Nitrous Oxidide 0.005 0.009 0.008 0.011 0.004 0.006

Methane 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.02Sulfur Hexafluoride 5.49e-3 5.52e-3 6.66e-3 5.84e-3 7.16e-3 7.90e-3

Total (kg CO2e/ MWh) 654.60 66.48 765.26 87.11 361.06 44.43


2001 I PCC GWP 20-Yr Time Horizon2001 I PCC GWP 100-Yr Time Horizon2001 I PCC GWP 500-Yr Time Horizon2007 I PCC GWP 20-Yr Time Horizon2007 I PCC GWP 100-Yr Time Horizon2007 I PCC GWP 500-Yr Time Horizon

Global Warming Potential Assumptions1 2 3 4 5 6

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

GH

G (

unit

s of

CO

2e/M

Wh)

654.6 66.48 765.26 87.11 361.06 44.43

11 11 11 11 11 11I GCC I GCC CCS SCPC SCPC CCS NGCC CCSNGCC

Master Sheet GHG - Energy Conversion Facility in

Net Generation BasisGross Generation Basis

Net vs Gross Generation Assumptions


454 kg CO2e/ MWh

Total kg CO2e/ MWh

1,001 lb CO2e/ MWh

No CO2e BenchmarkDisplay CO2e Benchmark


kg CO2e/ MWh

GHG (kg CO2e/MWh)



Environmental PerformanceThe Energy Conversion Facility Greenhouse Gases screen compares GHG emissions from the

plant (ECF stage) against a specified benchmark.

10

Production Cost vs. LC GHG Performance

GHG (kg CO2e/ MWh) 930.91 201.41 942.41 221.05 499.32 175.30 1,097.33 444.54 0.00 0.00 25.28 38.87 542.42 0.00COE ($/ kWh) 0.0790 0.1044 0.0601 0.1028 0.0652 0.0922 0.0174 0.0578 0.0000 0.0000 0.1078 0.0174 0.0811 0.0000

Low Case Change 0.0649 0.0853 0.0502 0.0842 0.0618 0.0846 0.0172 0.0488 0.0000 0.0000 0.0838 0.0178 0.0776 0.0000High Case Change 0.0934 0.1240 0.0706 0.1220 0.0709 0.1025 0.0184 0.0678 0.0000 0.0000 0.1305 0.0174 0.0844 0.0000

Symbol X X

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

0.00

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$/kW

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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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Master Sheet

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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hCO

E ($

/kW

h)

GHG (kg CO2e/ MWh)

IGCC IGCCCCS

SCPC SCPCCCS

NGCC NGCCCCS

EXPC EXPCCCS

USCPC USCPCCCS

Gen III+ EXNUC Wind UserDefined($/ kWh)


Costs vs EmissionsThis section explores the tradeoffs between production costs ($/kWh) and Life Cycle (LC) GHG

performance (kg CO2e/MWh).

11

Production Cost vs. LC GHG Performance

GHG (kg CO2e/ MWh) 930.91 201.41 942.41 221.05 499.32 175.30 1,097.33 444.54 0.00 0.00 25.28 38.87 542.42 0.00COE ($/ kWh) 0.0790 0.1044 0.0601 0.1028 0.0652 0.0922 0.0174 0.0578 0.0000 0.0000 0.1078 0.0174 0.0811 0.0000

Low Case Change 0.0649 0.0853 0.0502 0.0842 0.0618 0.0846 0.0172 0.0488 0.0000 0.0000 0.0838 0.0178 0.0776 0.0000High Case Change 0.0934 0.1240 0.0706 0.1220 0.0709 0.1025 0.0184 0.0678 0.0000 0.0000 0.1305 0.0174 0.0844 0.0000

Symbol X X

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

0.00

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$/kW

h

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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Master Sheet

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400kg CO2e/ MWh

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hCO

E ($

/kW

h)

GHG (kg CO2e/ MWh)

IGCC IGCCCCS

SCPC SCPCCCS

NGCC NGCCCCS

EXPC EXPCCCS

USCPC USCPCCCS

Gen III+ EXNUC Wind UserDefined($/ kWh)


Costs vs EmissionsAdding carbon capture and storage (CCS) to an EXPC plant lowers the emissions, but increases the

costs. Costs and emissions are now comparable to a new NGCC plant without CCS.

12

Sensitivity AnalysisThis section allows one to vary several assumptions simultaneously. Parameters are varied by cost category. Tornado plot shows sensitivity by cost category. Table displays cumulative cost range.

13

00 625 1250 1875 2500 3125 3750 4375 5000 5625 62500

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Capital Cost ($/ kW)

COE

($/k

Wh)

0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 3,125 3,750 4,375 5,000 5,625 6,250

0.0184 0.0289 0.0393 0.0498 0.0602 0.0706 0.0811 0.0915 0.1019 0.1124 0.12280.0790 0.0790 0.0790 0.0790 0.0790 0.0790 0.0790 0.0790 0.0790 0.0790 0.07900.0601 0.0601 0.0601 0.0601 0.0601 0.0601 0.0601 0.0601 0.0601 0.0601 0.06010.0652 0.0652 0.0652 0.0652 0.0652 0.0652 0.0652 0.0652 0.0652 0.0652 0.06520.0811 0.0811 0.0811 0.0811 0.0811 0.0811 0.0811 0.0811 0.0811 0.0811 0.08110.0174 0.0174 0.0174 0.0174 0.0174 0.0174 0.0174 0.0174 0.0174 0.0174 0.0174

I GCCSCPCNGCC

EXNUCWind Onshore

COE TableCOE Graph Master SheetFuel Price Capital Cost I nterest Rate CO2e Tax Construction TimeCapacity Factor

Break-Even Analysis

COE

($/k

Wh)

Gen I I I Plus Nuclear

Capital Cost ($/ kW)

Sensitivity AnalysisProduction Analysis Sensitivity AnalysisEnvironmental Performance Costs vs Emissions

Sensitivity AnalysisThe Break-Even Analysis option makes it possible to find cost assumption points at which

technologies are cost competitive. For example, capital costs below $2,500 $/kW would allow a new nuclear plant to compete economically with a new super critical coal plant (SCPC).

14

Results• For the default model assumptions, the results show that:

• For the fossil fuel technology options the supercritical pulverized coal plant is the lowest cost option at 6.01 cents/kWh.

• The next lowest cost fossil fuel option is the natural gas combined cycle plant (6.52 cents/kWh) and then the integrated gasification combined cycle plant (7.90 cents/kWh). At current market prices, the NGCC plant becomes the low cost option (4.28 cents/kWh for natural gas price at 3.68 $/MMBtu).

• While existing nuclear plants produce power at very low cost (1.74 cents/kWh), power from a new Gen III+ nuclear plant would be more expensive than the fossil-fuel alternatives (10.78 cents/kWh).

• Power LCAT currently includes one renewable technology option – a 2 MW wind turbine with a gas turbine simple cycle backup (8.11 cents/kWh) and without natural gas plant backup (4.91 cents/kWh).

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Conclusion• The Power LCAT is a high-level dynamic model that calculates production costs and tracks

environmental performance for a range of electricity generation technologies: • natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), • integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), • supercritical pulverized coal (SCPC), • existing pulverized coal (EXPC), • existing (EXNUC) and new nuclear (Gen III Plus), and • onshore wind (with and without backup power).

• All of the fossil fuel technologies also include an option for including carbon capture and sequestration technologies (CCS).

• The model allows for quick sensitivity analysis on key technical and financial assumptions, such as: capital, O&M, and fuel costs; interest rates; construction time; heat rates; taxes; depreciation; and capacity factors.

• Power LCAT is targeted at helping policy makers, students, and interested stakeholders understand the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with various electricity production options.

Model AvailabilityPower Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT) is available on the NETL website:

NETL Energy Analysis Models and Tools

16

Modeling Team

Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool(Power LCAT)

Version 2.0May 2012

Thomas E. Drennen and J oel S. AndruskiTimothy J . Skone, P.E. and J ustin M. Adder

Sensitivity AnalysisProduction Analysis

Terms Assumptions Sources Legend

Environmental Performance Costs vs Emissions

http://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analyses/refshelf/PubDetails.aspx?Action=View&Source=Main&PubId=429






www.netl.doe.gov www.sandia.gov

Contact Information

NETL SNL

17

Timothy J. Skone, P.E. Lead Physical Engineer OSEAP - Planning Team (412) 386-4495 [email protected]

Justin M. AdderEconomistOSEAP - Planning Team (412) 386-7309 [email protected]

Dr. Thomas E. DrennenSenior Economist, SNLProfessor of Economics, HWS Colleges(315) [email protected]

http://www.netl.doe.gov/

http://www.sandia.gov/

mailto:[email protected]



Documents

Power Systems Life Cycle Analysis Tool (Power LCAT)