Post-Crisis Leadership Certificate...Certificate Segment 7: Re-Energizing Sales Rob Hammond D.B.A. Jim Stikeleather D.B.A. What we will cover this evening Re-energizing sales •When

Post-Crisis Leadership Certificate

Segment 7: Re-Energizing Sales

Rob Hammond D.B.A. Jim Stikeleather D.B.A.

What we will cover this evening

Re-energizing sales

• When to shift your messaging

• How to identify customers that will and can buy

• Tools you can use to plan for the next disruption

By teaching managers to look through the lens of the theory into

the future you can actually see the future very clearly. Clay Christensen

Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program

Crisis Disruptions Problems Opportunitiesand they happen all the time

Local Construction

Changes Traffic PatternPartner Separation

Life ChangesGraduation

Marriage

Birth of Child

Ven

ezue

la E

cono

mic

Colla

pse

Afr

ica d

rou

gh

t an

d

on

go

ing

con

flic

ts

Fin

an

cia

l Cri

sis

.co

m B

ust

Eu

rop

e Im

mig

ration

Fu

ku

sh

ima

De

ep

Wa

ter

Ho

rizo

n

9/1

1

AO

L

En

ron

Acco

un

tin

g

Fra

ud

Ub

er

La

un

ch

es

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Ca

lifo

rnia

Wild

fire

s

Hurr

ican

e S

an

dy

After a Crisis • Introductions

• How we deal with a crisis

• 3 phases of market communication after a crisis

• How do you find new customers and revenue after a crisis

• Old thinking will kill you

• Macro market trends driving innovation and solutions

• Case study

• Go dos

Crises happen all the time

Crises disrupt markets and create problems for people and companies

Customer problems are Sales Opportunities

Each crisis is unique but follows a similar path


Importance and Appropriateness of Theory

“He who loves practice without theory is like the sailor who boards ship without a rudder

and compass and never knows where he may cast.” -Leonardo da Vinci

You should understand the fundamentals, so that you can start. Then, when you hit a roadblock, you can

figure out what you need to learn and learn it just-in-time. I find this a very efficient way of learning and

practicing simultaneously. Theory also helps you understand what is unique this time.

In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not. -Albert Einstein

Experience without theory is blind, but theory without experience is mere intellectual play.

-Immanuel Kant

Theory and practice sometimes clash. And when that happens, theory loses. Every single

time. -Linus Torvalds


Concepts=>Principles=>Frameworks=>Models=>Methodologies=>Methods

Taleb: this isn’t a black swan


https://www.pasqualecirillo.eu/



Butterfly Effect of all those systems interacting via their participants

10Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program

In a crisis there is a loss: wellbeing

Cleverism.com



Satir Change Model: Managing your expectations

Graphic from CIOpages.com

Tolerance and

Learning

Thomas Edison - I didn't

fail. I just found 2,000

ways not to make a

lightbulb; I only needed

to find one way to make

it work.

Disappointment Excitement


Each has its own (and

aggregated) path though the

stages and transitions

Data is only available about the past. When we teach

people, they should be data driven and fact based and

analytical as they look into the future in many ways, we

condemn them to take action when the game is over.

The only way to look into the future – there’s no data, so

you have to have a good theory.

By teaching managers to look through the lens of the theory

into the future you can actually see the future very clearly. I

think that is what the theory of disruption has done.

Clay Christensen, Theory of Disruptive Innovation

Trying to guess when things will happen is fools' errand. Instead plan messaging

and sales actions on objective events. Timing is market driven.

COPYRIGHT © 2020

BY ROB HAMMOND

Fear for

Safety

Gov’t

Lockdown

Market

Sell-off

High

Volume

TestingMany

More

CasesPopulation

Recognizes

They Know Few

Sick People

Population Exhausted

with Being Home

Layoff

News Gov’t

Stimulus

Promising

Therapies / Solutions

Market

Bottom

s

Lockdown

Extension

Phas

e 3

“N

ew

Norm

al”

Mortality Found

To Be Lower

Market Sell-off

Lines of Credit

Open for SMB

Phase 1 Phase 2

• Length of “bowl” and shape of recovery is dependent on how rough things get:

therapies, mortality rate, duration.

• Items will shift order and relative level.

• Forced experiences will create “New Normal” changes in demand curves for industries.

• Brands will move through phases at different rates based on market strength.

• The universal truth – solve a customer’s known problem or teach the customer about

their unrecognized problem and how you solve it.


Three Phases of Post Crisis Communication

Safety and Security

• Priority focus moves from Self / Family to Employees to Customers

• Don’t Sell: Create Empathy

• Help solve problems regardless of whether related to your product

Innovation

• Forced Experiences cause Brands to Innovate

• Teach your customers and prospects, be a market sensor

• Invest in marketing: Phase 2 Innovations create structure for New Normal market share

New Normal

• Some Phase 2 Innovations stick establishing new structure for market share (telemedicine)

• Some markets, industries, people are unaffected by a crisis (government spending) others can see massive demand increase (grocery, cleaning products)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-one-chart-makes-the-case-that-the-worst-is-over-for-the-stock-market-and-the-virus-has-peaked-2020-04-28?reflink=mw_share_email

https://civileats.com/2020/04/22/restaurants-are-

transforming-into-grocery-stores-to-survive-the-pandemic/

• The trend has touched small restaurants, restaurant groups

with multiple outlets, and national chains. Panera and

Subway have launched their own grocery stores. Also,

• Steakhouses are being reinvented as butcher shops

• Upscale eateries are hosting virtual cocktail classes

• Chefs are creating DIY meal kits

“I think all the pantry loading behavior has slowed down,” Niccol said, referencing the grocery hoarding that occurred in the first few weeks of the pandemic. “I think there's fatigue in cooking. Combine that with the fact that tax refunds and stimulus money are starting to get in the hands of people.”

https://www.nrn.com/fast-casual/quarterly-digital-sales-chipotle-mexican-grill-reach-record-

372-million

We are in Phase 2 of a post disruption sales

and marketing strategy

• People are exhausted with being home

• Fear is lessening

• Brands are innovating and exploring new business models

Copyright © 2020 by Rob Hammond

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-one-chart-makes-the-case-that-the-worst-is-over-for-the-stock-market-and-the-virus-has-peaked-2020-04-28?reflink=mw_share_email

https://civileats.com/2020/04/22/restaurants-are-transforming-into-grocery-stores-to-survive-the-pandemic/

https://www.nrn.com/fast-casual/quarterly-digital-sales-chipotle-mexican-grill-reach-record-372-million

Crisis Market Communication

• Phase 1

• Help solve problems even if not related to brand or product

• We are here and will be here

• Don’t sell – tone deaf

• Communicate with empathy

• Phase 2

• Teach Customers and Prospects

• Solve problems

• Buyer Persona and customer needs are different – evolve messaging else tone deaf

• Invest in marketing

• Phase 3

• Teach lagging customers

• Solve problems

• Messaging is different than pre-crisis, shifted demand curves, accelerated adoption

Not all brands and people are affected

3 Phases of Communication: Safety / Security, Innovation, New Normal

Long Term Market Share is established with innovations in Phase 2

Strongest brands win due to ability to invest when others are pulling back

Objective market changes dictate phases. Don’t guess or let emotion guide.

Customer needs and buyer personas change during phases and after crisis

Amy Radin

https://www.amyradin.com/

• American Express

• The Dime Savings Bank of New York

• Citi

• ETRADE Financial

• AXA


Crises disrupt markets: Solve a known problem or teach about a new problem

• Companies have different problems

• People loose jobs. Priorities change.

• Old messages (value propositions, presentations, templates, campaigns) often won’t work on new customers and different problems

• Risk being perceived as tone deaf - waste resources and time

• Forced experiences create new problems that need solutions

• Brands (and likely different people) are seeking information, ideas, and solutions to new problems


Innovation Diffusion helps identify who to contact, when, and what to say

• Simon Sinek – “People don’t buy what you do; they buy why you do it”

• Geoffrey Moore detailed the gap between Early Adopters and mass market in Crossing the Chasm

• Clay Christensen describes the Theory of Disruption in The Innovator’s Dilemma

Copyright © 2019 by RH Insights LLC 21

Innovation Diffusion• Innovation Diffusion has been widely studied.

The leader of the theory is Rogers.

• Innovation Diffusion appears to be part of human nature. It has been observed across regions incorporating tangible and intelligible items.

• Research shows there is no “gap” between the segments. These are continuous variables.

• My own research and book heavily leverages innovation diffusion theory as well.


Innovators and Early Adopters

• Interest in new ideas leads them out of a local circle of peer network into more cosmopolite social relationships – clique of innovators

• Control over substantial financial resources

• Ability to understand and apply complex technical knowledge is also needed

• Cope with high degree of uncertainty

• Highest degree of opinion leadership in most systems.

• Potential adopters look to early adopters for advice and information.

23


Early Majority, Late Majority, Laggards

• Early Majority wait for other to try it first.

• Late Majority has relatively scarce resources so most of the uncertainty about a new idea must be removed before they feel safe to adopt. Adoption may not occur until an economic necessity and increasing peer pressure.

• Laggards reference is the past – perhaps system blame From Avoiding the Carnage – A Guidebook through Sales Transformation

24

Innovation Diffusion

• Five characteristics of predicting adoption• Relative Advantage, Compatibility, Complexity,

Trialability, Observability

• Be aware of Individual Blame Bias, Adoption Bias versus System Blame

• It is in everyone’s best interest except to the subject to adopt

• “If the shoe doesn’t fit then there is something wrong with your foot”


They are Wicked Problems...

• There is no “solution” or “one right answer”, only

approaches to address

• The goal is to make some part better without

making other parts even worse

• The approaches depend upon how the problem is

framed and vice versa (the approach determines

the problem definition)

• Stakeholders have radically different world views

and states, and therefore different frames for

understanding the problem

• While originally conceived for understanding

social policy and planning, wicked problems are

everywhere, especially in business



They are Wicked Problems...

• There is no “solution” or “one right answer”, only

approaches to address

• The goal is to make some part better without

making other parts even worse

• The approaches depend upon how the problem is

framed and vice versa (the approach determines

the problem definition)

• Stakeholders have radically different world views

and states, and therefore different frames for

understanding the problem

• While originally conceived for understanding

social policy and planning, wicked problems are

everywhere, especially in business

Getting There: The Big Picture• Not trivial nor single reads

• Can skip “The Bed of Procrustes”

• In theory life is like theory, but it is not — so aim to be mostly right than precisely wrong

• Build a world view, then adapt to circumstances

• Acerbic

Getting a Little Closer to the Ground• 4 capabilities model developed at MIT

Sloan

• Dr. Deborah Ancona

• Dr. Thomas Malone

• Dr. Wanda Orlikowski

• Dr. Peter Senge

• Based on Dr. Brian Arthur’s work in the areas of complexity theory, technology, and financial markets.

Foresight: Thinking About the Future• “Prediction is very difficult, especially

about the future.” ― Niels Bohr

• “All models are wrong, but some are useful”. ― George E. P. Box


Voros, J. (2017). Big History and Anticipation: using big history as a

framework for global foresight. Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical

and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making.


Sensemaking

Life or Death Sensemaking• It may seem “touchy/feely”

• But it has become rigorous and methodical

• It is a foundational skill in the intelligence communities

• Remember, they project COVID-19 ahead of everyone

Pirolli, P., & Card, S. (2005, May). The sensemaking process and leverage

points for analyst technology as identified through cognitive task analysis. In

Proceedings of international conference on intelligence analysis (Vol. 5, pp. 2-4).

Where do we look for Innovations?

• Forced experiences create problems businesses seek to solve for their customers

• Solutions are derived from mega trends that are the current of innovation

• Digital, The Internet, and Mobile were all recent megatrends

• We are entering what is being called the 4th Industrial Revolution

What are inputs for sensemaking?

Where are the next likely disruptions coming from?

What are the next disruptive technologies?

What is the 4th

Industrial RevolutionPartly it is about technologies and how they are used:

• AI

• Blockchain

• Computational Technologies

• Virtual Reality

• Biotechnology

• Robotics

• 3D Printing

• Material Science

• Internet of Things

• Energy Capture & Storage

SiteZeus Interview Take-aways

• Ensured available cash

• Know competitive differentiation

• Knew customer personas

• Identified new customer problems

• Segmented for who could buy

• Made tough choices on people and product portfolio

• Invested in people

• Integrated sales and marketing into seamless growth engine

Old model was supporting restaurant new site selection

Customer contact was Chief Development Officer

Both the customer problem and customer disappeared overnight


We must manage the right things

• Typically we plan revenue as the goal

• Thought leaders are now looking at behaviors that drive revenue and managing the behaviors

• Reality is that revenue is the result of a complex system

• Systems theory teaches that there are 12 points of leverage in system

• Metrics are the least effective point of leverage and the most effective leverage comes from a transcendent paradigm

Behaviors


Adapted from Meadows

Autonomous Leverage Human Leverage


Systems Thinking: Theory + Practice


A transcendent paradigm is the most effective leverage point and is grounded in Beliefs

• And what drives behaviors? Beliefs

• How do you affect beliefs? Teach and Inspire

• What do you do with behaviors? Coach

• What can we do with metrics? Inspect and Analyze

• Where does it all start? People

Behaviors

Beliefs

Flip the pyramid and revenue is the result

Metrics


Transformation begins with people

1. Solve HR Issues, then

2. Beliefs drive Behaviors, and

3. Behaviors create Metrics (Results)

4. All we can do is inspect and analyze revenue and leading indicators

5. Changing the system means Coaching, Inspiring, and Teaching your team

Willing Workers

Teach Individual Filters and Bias

Inspire


Leading

Indicators

Organizational Climate

Self-Efficacy

Motivation

Results

Coach

Analyze

Inspect

Decreasing

System Leverage

Sales Ready Organization

From Avoiding the Carnage – A Guidebook through Sales Transformation

A typical conversation with a 5-year-old:

• Why....• Then what happens?

• Why......• Then what happens?

• Why....

• Then what happens?

• Why....

• Then what happens?

• ... Ad infinitum

Be like a 5-year-old

If you are not prepared to intelligently have this

conversation now about your ecosystem with all

your stakeholders, you will not be prepared for the

next one nor be taken seriously about this one.

Being A Student of the Game & Industry

https://systemsinnovation.io/

https://waterscenterst.org/

https://www.andyhinesight.com/

https://nonprofitquarterly.org/the-sensemaking-organization-designing-for-complexity/

Transformation begins with people

1. Solve HR Issues

2. Eliminate Barriers in Sales and Marketing

3. Leverage BDRs as a “market sensing” function that enables marketing

4. Make sense of the situation by leveraging theory as a lens of clarity

5. Build pessimistic cash model

6. Rationalize your portfolio: sell to people who can buy

7. Message and pursue based on 3 phases of post-crisis model

8. Invest in marketing during phase 2: establish your solution for new forced experience customer problems

9. Continuously innovate

10. Be a student of the game and industry

Willing Workers

Teach Individual Filters and Bias

Inspire


Leading

Indicators

Organizational Climate

Self-Efficacy

Motivation

Results

Coach

Analyze

Inspect

Decreasing

System Leverage

Sales Ready Organization

From Avoiding the Carnage – A Guidebook through Sales Transformation

Go Dos

Documents

Post-Crisis Leadership Certificate...Certificate Segment 7: Re-Energizing Sales Rob Hammond D.B.A. Jim Stikeleather D.B.A. What we will cover this evening Re-energizing sales •When