POPULATION DEVELOPMENT OF SLOVENIA FROM THEBEGINNING OF COUNTING TO THE PRESENT DAY

Damir Josipovi~

According to its numbers, the Slovene population belongs ethnically and nationally among the small-er populations of European countries. However, it is distinguished by its historic endurance and continuityin Slovenia and in neighbouring areas since the 6th century. The existence of the Slovene people as anethnic group that survived in spite of strong assimilation pressures and which managed to preservethe Slovene language as the main distinguishing component of ethnicity largely throughout its ruralhinterland provided the foundation for the formation of modern Slovenia. Throughout its history fromits initial colonization in the 6th century, Slovene ethnic territory shrank constantly. In the first few cen-turies after colonization, the settling area of our Slovene ancestors encompassed the majority of theterritory of today's Austria, more than a third of Hungary and Croatia, and eastern border areas of today'sItaly. Relative to the size of today's Slovenia, this ethnic territory shrank most in the north and east,and least in the west. As an independent country, Slovenia is the millennium-long dream of the Slovenepeople come true, but a considerable area populated by speakers of autochthonous Slovene dialectsstill remains outside the state borders. Thus today, Slovenia has autochthonous minorities in all fourneighbouring countries.

In the time since the first estimates of the population on the territory of today's Slovenia in the mid-dle of the 18th century and the first censuses a good century later, the Slovene population has not increasedas other European populations then comparable with the Slovene population have. In the 19th centu-

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Figure 1: Manual farm work has almost disappeared (photography Marjan Garbajs).

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ayTable 1: Number and gender of the population of Slovenia and changes in the number after the population censuses in the period between 1857and 2002.

1857 1869 1880 1890 1900 1910 1921 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002

TOTAL 1.101.854 1.128.768 1.182.223 1.234.056 1.268.055 1.321.098 1.304.800 1.397.650 1.439.800 1.504.427 1.591.523 1.727.137 1.891.864 1.913.355 1.964.036

Men (m) 535.945 545.614 576.964 601.031 618.065 643.898 622.168 673.248 675.353 712.034 760.770 835.998 918.766 923643 958.576

Women (w) 565.909 583.154 605.259 633.025 649.990 677.200 682.632 724.402 764.447 792.393 830.753 891.139 973.098 989712 1.005.460

Absolute Difference 0 26.914 53.455 51.833 33.999 53.043 –16.298 92.850 42.150 64.627 87.096 135.614 164.727 21.491 50.681

Absolute Diff. (m) 0 9.669 31.350 24.067 17.034 25.833 –21.730 51.080 2.105 36.681 48.736 75.228 82.768 4.877 34.933

Absolute Diff. (w) 0 17.245 22.105 27.766 16.965 27.210 5.432 41.770 40.045 27.946 38.360 60.386 81.959 16.614 15.748

Index 100 102.4 107.3 112.0 115.1 119.9 118.4 126.8 130.7 136.5 144.4 156.7 171.7 173.6 178.2

Chain Index 100 102.4 104.7 104.4 102.8 104.2 98.8 107.1 103.0 104.5 105.8 108.5 109.5 101.1 102.6

Index (m) 100 101.8 107.7 112.1 115.3 120.1 116.1 125.6 126.0 132.9 141.9 156.0 171.4 172.3 178.9

Chain Index (m) 100 101.8 105.7 104.2 102.8 104.2 96.6 108.2 100.3 105.4 106.8 109.9 109.9 100.5 103.8

Index (w) 100 103.0 107.0 111.9 114.9 119.7 120.6 128.0 135.1 140.0 146.8 157.5 172.0 174.9 177.7

Chain Index (w) 100 103.0 103.8 104.6 102.7 104.2 100.8 106.1 105.5 103.7 104.8 107.3 109.2 101.7 101.6

Source: [ifrer 1963; SURS; our own calculations; Census data refers to the current territory of Slovenia. Calculations for the current territory for censusesbetween 1857 and 1910 are summarized from @. [ifrer – Stanovni{tvo 3/1963).

ry, the Slovene population ranked among the medium-sized populations of the European space andin numbers was roughly comparable with the neighbouring Croatian and Serbian populations, if welimit ourselves to just the populations in our immediate vicinity. However, the Serbian population inparticular experienced a rapid expansion during the 20th century, and today the Serbian population isabout five times larger than the Slovene population, while the Croatian population is twice its size. Thereasons for the very low increase in the Slovene population are numerous, the most important beingemigration of a large part of active population mostly to overseas countries and the simultaneous startof a decline in the birth rate. One of the basic factors of this development is certainly the lack of a Slovenenation-state. Thus in comparison with other ethnic populations, demographic transition did not bringcomparable population surpluses. The same is true of all populations who have been without their ownstate for a long time. Among the classic nation-states in Europe today, only the Estonian populationis smaller than the Slovene population. The reason for this lies in the political power of the country,which could acquire speakers through its official language policy at the expense of languages whosestatus was not officially recognized.

A comparison of census data shows that the number of inhabitants on the current territory of Sloveniahas not even doubled since the first census and that growth was not steady in the periods between cen-suses. The period between 1857 and 1910 was marked by a quite constant but weak growth in the numberof the population. This growth would have been considerably higher had the population not startedto emigrate intensively in the second half of the 19th century, mostly due to agrarian overpopulationand the general socio-economic crisis. The extent of emigration has been so large that along with theIrish and the Croats, Slovenes rank to the very top of European emigration. Between 1910 and 1921,the number of the population even regressed, which can be attributed to large war losses and the addi-tional emigration mostly from the western part of Slovenia (Primorska) that was granted to Italy asspoils of war after World War I. Between 1921 and 1948, the Slovene population did record growth,

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Slovenia: a Geographical Overview

0

200.000

1857 1869 1880 1890 1900 1910 1921 1931 1948 1953 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1.800.000

2.000.000

TOTAL Men Women

Figure 2: Number and gender of the population of Slovenia according to censuses between 1857and 2002 (Source: Ibid.).

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A D R I A T I C

S E A

Cerkno

Kranjska Gora

Mozirje

Bohinjska Bistrica

Bovec

Cerknica

Dravograd

Gornja Radgona

Ilirska Bistrica

La{ko

Lenartv Slovenskih goricah

Lendava

Ljutomer

Metlika

Ormo`

Piran

Radlje ob Dravi

^rna na Koro{kem

Ribnica

Ru{e

Se`ana

Slovenske Konjice

Roga{ka Slatina

Tolmin

Trebnje

Tr`i~

@elezniki

@iri

[entjur

Ajdov{~inaBre`ice

^rnomelj

Grosuplje

Hrastnik

Idrija

Kamnik

Ko~evje

Kr{ko

Litija

Logatec

Postojna

Bled

Radovljica

Ravne na Koro{kem

Sevnica

Slovenj Gradec

Slovenska Bistrica

Vrhnika

Zagorje ob Savi

@alec Celje

Dom`ale

Izola

Jesenice

Koper

Kranj

Murska Sobota

Nova Gorica

Novo mesto

Ptuj

[kofja Loka Trbovlje

Velenje

LJUBLJANA

MARIBOR

Reka

Mirna

Pivka

Idrijca

Sotl

a

Savi

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Dravinja

Dragonja

Vipava

Me`a

Pesnica

[~avnica

Ledava

Sora

Ljubljanica

Savinja

Kolpa

Krka

So~a

Sava

Sava

Drava

Mura

© Geografski in{titut Antona Melika ZRC SAZU, 2004

0 10 20 30 40 50km

Population growth index 2002/1991

120 and more (722)

110 to 119,9 (759)

100 to 109,9 (1434)

90 to 99,9 (1505)

80 to 89,9 (828)

less than 80 (750)

Scale: 1 : 1,300,000

Author: Damir Josipovi~

but this was reduced because of the continuation of emigration and losses as a consequence of WorldWar II. After World War II with the post-war baby boom, emigration continued into the 1950's, butafter that period Slovenia became an immigration area as a result of rapid industrialization. Emigrationto foreign countries dropped markedly while the influx of the population from other parts of the for-mer Yugoslavia increased. Because the natural increase still ensured a relative surplus, the number ofthe population increased considerably with positive migration balance, especially in the periodbetween 1971 and 1981. The data for the census years 1991 and 2002 is not quite comparable with pre-vious data because of a different definition of the population, which is now the same in Slovenia as itis in the majority of European Union countries. For this reason, the census data gives the impressionthat the population practically ceased to grow after 1981. However, this is not true. If we compare thedata for 1981 and 1991 acquired using the same methodology, we realize that the population increasedby a good 70,000. This increase is in accordance with the natural increase and the migration balanceof the period of the 1980's. In the second half of the 1980's, immigration to Slovenia from other partsof Yugoslavia decreased considerably, but at the same time the natural increase also decreased, and in 1993was negative for the first time since World War II. Since 1997, the natural increase in Slovenia has remainednegative. The period between the last two censuses does mark a growth in the number of the inhabi-tants, but this growth is mostly due to immigration, a different method of gathering information, anda new definition of the population.

The Slovene population in the last period is characterized by stagnation in the number along withan unfavourable age structure, which is rooted largely in the drastically reduced birth rate. This lowbirth rate ranks Slovenia at the bottom of European countries. The period of strong migration to Slovenia

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Slovenia: a Geographical Overview

Figure 3: Change in the population by settlements in Slovenia between 1991 and 2002 (Source: ourown calculations, SURS).

pFigure 4: Traditional pottery still lives today (photography Jo`e Pojbi~).

from areas of the former Yugoslavia that concealed the seriousness of the decline of the birth rate endedwith the independence of Slovenia. If the birth rate continues to decrease or stagnate, the migrationbalance will have to increase substantially to maintain the number of the population at the level of abouttwo million. In the last decade, there has again been a trend toward a slight increase of immigration,but the increase is still far below the number necessary to replace annual generation losses.

Within Slovenia, substantial differences exist in the number development of the population. Themap shows the changes in the population according to settlements in the last period between census-es. Along with the general relative stagnation or the low total growth of the population of Slovenia,higher growth is distinctly evident mainly in the urban Ljubljana region while other, mostly rural andborder areas have suffered strong depopulation. Such development is the consequence of the unevenregional development that Slovenia has witnessed particularly in the last decade.

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Damir Josipovi~ Population Development of Slovenia from the beginning of Counting to the Present Day