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Transition Dynamics for PEVs

World PEV Sales (2012 versus 2013)

World Total 213, 252World Total 131,573

North America, 

56510, 43%

Europe, 48633, 37%

Asia, 26177, 20%

Oceania, 253, 0%

EV Sales by Continent/Region in 2012

North America, 99148, 47%

Europe, 66346, 31%

Asia, 47453, 22%

Oceania, 304, 0%

EV Sales By Continent/Region in 2013

source: http://ev‐sales.blogspot.com.

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Sales have grown this year in Europe & China

3

Euro, 68391, 32%

JAPAN, 62916, 29%

USA, 84039, 39%

World EV/PHEV Sales YTD

Europe

Asia

USA

Euro, 68391, 32%

JAPAN, 62916, 29%

USA, 84039, 39%

World EV/PHEV Sales YTD 215,396 Sept.  

Europe

Asia

USA

Asia

Leaf981970.09%

Model S190013.56%

Smart ED1390.99%

iMiEV6204.43%

Active E6434.59%

Focus E6834.88%

Spark0

0.00%

Rav4 EV1310.94% Fit E

740.53%

US 2012 BEV Sales by Brand

Leaf

Model S

Smart ED

iMiEV

Active E

Focus E

Spark

Fiat 500‐E

Rav4 EV

Fit E

2012 TOTAL SOLD24123

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Leaf, 22610, 48.44%Model S, 17500, 37.49%

Smart ED, 923, 1.98%

iMiEV, 1029, 2.20%

Active E, 0, 0.00%

Focus E, 1760, 3.77%

Spark, 539, 1.15%

Fiat 500‐E, 645, 1.38%

Rav4 EV, 1098, 2.35%

Fit E, 569, 1.22% US 2013 BEV SALES by Brand

Leaf

Model S

Smart ED

iMiEV

Active E

Focus E

Spark

Fiat 500‐E

Rav4 EV

Fit E

2013 TOTAL SOLD70796

Leaf, 18941, 55.93%

Model S, 8767, 25.89%

t ED, 98, 2%

iMiEV, 134, 0.40%

Active E, 0, 0.00%

Focus E, 1358, 4.01%

Spark, 844, 2.49%

Fiat 500‐E, 1066, 3.15%Rav4 EV, 842, 2.49% Fit E, 318, 0.94%

US 2014 BEV SALES by BRAND

Leaf

Model S

Smart ED

iMiEV

Active E

Focus E

Spark

Fiat 500‐E

Rav4 EV

Fit E

2014 TOTAL SOLD (Through August)

33,868

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Volt, 23461, 60.80%

Prius +, 12749, 33.04%

C‐MAX Energi, 2374, 6.15%Fusion PHEV, 0, 

0.00%

Porche Panamera S‐E, 0, 0.00%

Cadillac ELR, 0, 0.00%

Accord PHEV, 0, 0.00%

US 2012 PHEV SALES by BRAND

Volt

Prius +

C‐MAX Energi

Fusion PHEV

Porche Panamera S‐E

Cadillac ELR

Accord PHEV

2012 TOTAL SOLD38584

Volt, 23094, 47.09%

Prius +, 12088, 24.65%

C‐MAX Energi, 7154, 14.59%

Fusion PHEV, 6089, 12.42%

Porche Panamera S‐E, 86, 0.18%

Cadillac ELR, 6, 0.01%

Accord PHEV, 526, 1.07%

US 2013 PHEV SALES by BRAND

Volt

Prius +

C‐MAX Energi

Fusion PHEV

Porche Panamer

Cadillac ELR

Accord PHEV

2013 TOTAL SOLD49043

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Volt, 13146, 32.24%

Prius +, 11489, 28.17%

C‐MAX Energi, 5809, 14.25%

Fusion PHEV, 8683, 21.29%

Porche Panamera S‐E, 610, 1.50%

Cadillac ELR, 774, 1.90% Accord PHEV, 267, 

0.65%

US 2014 PHEV SALE by BRAND

Volt

Prius +

C‐MAX Energi

Fusion PHEV

Porche Panamera S‐E

Cadillac ELR

Accord PHEV

2014 TOTAL SOLD (through August)

40,778

Classic “diffusion” theory tells us that markets for new stuff is segmented into buyers that adopt earlier or later.

10

Innovators

Technology Enthusiasts

Early Adopters

Visionaries

LateMajority

Conservatives

EarlyMajority

Pragmatists

Laggards

Skeptics

{ { { { { The main processes in PEV diffusion are:

• Communication between the early and later buyers about costs, driving, practicality

• Experience that the technology is useful, better (to drive), reliable, convenient, 

• Evidence that the technology is “green”

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2014

Early core market:6-15% of market

2010

Early market followers: 3‐5% of market 

Early market followers: 3‐5% of market 1996 (Japan) 2004

Early market:1-2%

The development of the HEV market in Japan and California gives us a model of diffusion

Rollout was over 3 generations of vehicle design. 

• 1st generation OEM mules for innovator feedback

• 2nd generation refined design, develop supply chains

• 3rd generation lean out production

Japan: 3rd generation HEV sales over 20%. California: 3rd generation HEV sales 7‐8%.

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So, it is interesting to superimpose these first 15 years of hybrids on a diffusion curve for first 15 years of PEVs

12

Innovators

EarlyAdopters

Early Majority

2025

Early core market:6-15% of market

2020

Early market followers: 3‐5% of market Early market followers: 3‐5% of market 

2010 2015

Early market:1-2%

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13

Innovators

Technology Enthusiasts

Early Adopters

Visionaries

LateMajority

Conservatives

EarlyMajority

Pragmatists

Laggar

Skepti

{ { { { {

27% bought 1 car = 65% of new car purchases

66% of the households did not purchase new car in the last 5 years

7% of HH purchased 2+ cars = 35%  of new cars

Gil’s new car income pyramid 

Higher income, higher education & home ownership are correlated with new car & first PEV buyers

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Plug in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) are a wide range of products for the market

– “Minimum” Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)• Varying electric range – battery 5‐10 kWh

• Low EV performance, High MPG

• Charging speed 3‐12 miles per hour 

– Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV)• Increased electric range – medium battery 10‐16 kWh energy

• High EV and ICE performance, medium MPG

• Charging speed 3‐12 miles per hour

• DC fast capability (Mitsubishi Outlander) 

– Battery Electric Vehicle X (BEVx)• All electric range – large battery >16kWh energy

• High EV, low ICE performance, low MPG

• Charge power generally 3.3 kW to 6.6 kW and DC fast capability 

– Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)• All electric range – large battery >16kWh energy

• Exclusively electric operation

• Charge power generally 3.3 kW to 6.6 kW and DC fast capability 

– “ICE Range” Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)• All electric range – large battery 85 kWh energy

• Charge power generally 3.3 kW to 18 kW and DC fast capability 

1.1 to 3.3 kW

6.6 kW +

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The diverse technology broadens the market, more cars to meet diverse wants and needs.

But also complicates the diffusion process, especially diffusion of information, experience and values generation.

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2010

PEVs Typology by US Sales Q1-Q3 2014

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Prius Plugin AccordPHEV

C‐MAXEnergi

FusionPHEV

PorchePanamera

S‐E

Cadillac ELR Volt Smart ED Leaf Focus EV Spark Fit E Fiat 500‐E Rav4 EV Model S

Car Sales

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014

Short Range PHEVs

Extended Range PHEVs

Battery Electric Vehicle 

Long Range BEV

29,000 16,000 29,000 12,000

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2014 YTD PEV sales in Asia (Japan & China)

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PHEV, 20901, 32%

BEV, 42007, 64%

Long Range BEV, 2857, 

4% PHEV

BEV

LongRangeBEV

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PHEV, 18530, 27%

EREV, 4107, 6%

BEV, 38674, 57%

Max BEV, 7080, 10%

European Market Share Sales YTD

PHEV

EREV

BEV

Max BEV

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10

19

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

LEAF

iMiEV

BMW i3

BYD e6

Kia Soul EV

Renau

lt Zoe

Volksw

agen e‐UP!

Renau

lt Kan

goo ZE

Renau

lt Twizy

Volksw

agen e‐Golf

Bollo

re Bluecar

Citroen C‐Zero

Opel A

mpera

Peugo

t iON

Nissan e‐NV200

Goupil G3

Peugeot Partner EV

Citröen Berlingo

 EV

Renau

lt Fluence ZE

Porsche Pan

amera Plug‐In

Prius Plug‐in

BMW i8

Mitsubishi O

utlan

der…

Smart Fortwo ED

Ford Focus Electric

Audi A

3 e‐Tron

VW Golf GTE

Volt

Volvo V60 Plug‐in

Model S

European Market Sales by Group 2014 YTD

PHEV:18530

EV:38674

EREV:4107

TESLA:7080

Also, diffusion has a strong geographic aspect, with some regions, neighborhoods, developing faster

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Coastal CaliforniaPortlandSeattleAmsterdamParisAtlanta…?

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World EV Cities & EcosystemsChart of # of Electric Vehicles per City or Region

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Cities EV/Car Ratio

This process began with early sales clusters and gets more dramatic

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3% percent of the addresses here 

have a plug in car. 

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Market Area State PEV Sales % of marketSan Francisco‐Oakland‐San Jose CA 3.33%Atlanta GA 2.15%Seattle‐Tacoma WA 1.83%Honolulu HI 1.71%Monterey‐Salinas CA 1.51%San Diego CA 1.34%Santa Barbara‐San Luis Obispo CA 1.29%Portland OR 1.25%Los Angeles CA 1.08%Eugene OR 0.86%Sacramento‐Stockton‐Modesto CA 0.85%Eureka CA 0.63%Fresno‐Visalia CA 0.53%Medford‐Klamath Falls OR 0.51%Austin TX 0.47%Nashville TN 0.45%Juneau AK 0.44%Denver CO 0.44%Palm Springs CA 0.43%Peoria‐Bloomington IL 0.43%Salt Lake City UT 0.38%Bakersfield CA 0.35%Raleigh‐Durham (Fayetvlle) NC 0.32%Chicago IL 0.32%Phoenix (Prescott) AZ 0.31%

Data From WSJ/ Polk

Bay Area PEV market is about 5‐6 times bigger than most early 

markets

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Technology varies by geography as wellMore BEVs in urban core while PHEVs in suburbs

The early market is now has a variety of buyer value clusters

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The current round of incentives – tax credits, rebates, HOV lanes, low 

electricity prices does a couple of things to this schema:

Encourages Early market followers and Early core market  to jump into 

the market now to take advantage of incentives.

Attract with HOV lanes, low costs

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2025

Early core market:6-15% of market

2020

Early market followers: 3‐5% of market Early market followers: 3‐5% of market 

2010 2015Early market:1-2%

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The current round of incentives – tax credits, rebates, 

HOV lanes, low electricity prices aims to: encourage 

Early market followers and  Early core market buyers  

to jump into the market now.

What are the impacts of this on market 

development?