Ucla luskin center pev infrastructure

W Hotel (Westwood)|Los Angeles October 26, 2011

Projected PEV Base in Los Angeles: 2000-2020

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,00020

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

1920

20

Installed Base

BEV Cumulative PHEV Cumulative Hybrid Cumulative

Source: Jeffrey Dubin, et.al., UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.

Market Analysis

� PEVs projected to be 9% of new car sales in 2015, and 11.7% in 2020

� Based on demographic and conjoint survey of 2,072 LA residents in 2010-2011.


PEV Charging & Multifamily Dwellings

� Residential Parking a problem for Early Adopters

�  “How much of a problem would it be if there were no EV chargers in your building?” � Would prevent from buying an EV: 42% �  Serious problem, but could work: 27%



� Unlocking Multifamily Dwelling Charging = Unlocking the Market

Single Family, 46%

Duplex, 3%

Multifamily, 51%

Other, 0.7%

Source: David Peterson, UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.

Los Angeles Housing Stock (2009)


�  LA Green Building Code mandates new construction to install EVSE electrical conduits in low rise multifamily.

�  LAGBC mandates designated PEV spaces for new high-rise construction

Source: City of Los Angeles Green Building Code, 2010.


�  New residential construction is too slow to meet demand

�  SR solutions? �  PHEVs & Extended range vehicles �  Workplace and publicly-accessible charging

�  What are actual installation costs in overlapping areas of high nighttime demand and high concentrations of multifamily?

�  What role can public policy play to expedite installations?

Siting & Managing Public Charging

� Workplace, Commercial and other Publicly-accessible charging addresses key need for niche markets: �  PEV drivers without residential charging �  PEVs with small batteries wanting to charge

“opportunistically” � Reducing range anxiety

� Where should they go, and how should they be managed?


�  Many siting methodologies exist: �  #1: Ad-hoc �  #2 Informed

�  Estimating demand, identifying low cost supply sites, and matching supply and demand gives cities the power to: �  Leverage private investment �  Know where to upgrade old infrastructure �  Informs electric utility where to expect demand �  Plan for integration with transportation demand

strategies (e.g., parking pricing)

Concentrations of Nighttime PEV Charging 2020



59 32

7 6

4 1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Commercial Government Owned Property

Institutional Industrial

Recreational Miscellaneous

EV Charging Station Locations by Land Use Category (07.2011)

Number of Locations

3

484

2

312

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Public EVSE 1.0 L1 Public EVSE 1.0 L2

EVSE

(uni

ts)

First Generation Charging Stations (07.2011)

U.S. (ex-CA) CA (ex-LA County) LA County

•  Appx 35% of U.S. Gen 1 charging stations are in LA County •  Most are 220-240 Volts •  Opportunity for low-cost refurbishment •  Need to strategically target sites

•  Over 50% of publicly-accessible Gen 1 charging stations on commercial property. •  Opportunity to leverage private investment.

Source: Peterson & Goepel, UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.

Conclusion � Need to responsibly site and manage

infrastructure to avoid wasteful spending and costly decommissioning of stranded assets

� Public sector can have a hand in guiding this process

�  Innovative solutions need to emerge for multi-unit dwellings

� Need for greater sharing of best practices across California and U.S.

www.luskin.ucla.edu

�  J.R. DeShazo, Director �  310.593.1198 �  [email protected]

� David Peterson, PEV Project Manager �  650.477.4883 �  [email protected]

Automotive

Ucla luskin center pev infrastructure