Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Perspectives on Grid Parity and Large Scale Solar PV Power Plants
Pashu Gopalan
Managing Director (Sub-Saharan Africa/ South Asia)
1
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements regarding the Company and the solar industry. Forward-looking
statements are statements that do not represent historical facts. Forward-looking statements in this presentation include, without
limitation, solar market growth projections, viable U.S. and foreign markets, future operating companies, our sales cycle, delivery
process, strategic growth, project pipeline, margin trends and financial sensitivity. These forward-looking statements are based on
information available to us as of the date of this presentation and current expectations, forecasts and assumptions, and involve a
number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by these forward-looking
statements.
Risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, changes in the regulatory environment and laws, changes in the module supply
market, changes in interest rates or the credit market, the Company’s ability to achieve expected operational, sales or financial
results and increased competition.
Given the dynamic, evolving nature and risks and uncertainty of the solar industry and the Company, the industry and the
Company’s forecasts, plans and expectations, and other components of forward-looking statements, may change. These forward-
looking statements should not be relied upon as representing our views as of any subsequent date, and we are under no obligation
to, and expressly disclaim any responsibility to, update or alter our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise.
Forward Looking Statements
2
MEMC Overview� 1st commercial manufacturer of silicon wafer
� 50+ years of innovation in technology
� Sold over 900 MW of Wafers in 2010 and expect
double that in 2011; ~$2.2 Billion in 2010
� ~5500 employees worldwide
� 12 manufacturing sites worldwide
� 150+ customers worldwide like Intel, Samsung,
Suntech, Qcells, Texas Instruments, TSMC
� MEMC trades as “WFR” in NYSE and is a
constituent of S&P500
3
Strong & Established Company Competing in an Immature Market
� Developer of solar power projects and solar energy services provider
� Develops, finances, installs and operates distributed solar power plants for its customers
� Manufactures polysilicon and provides wafers. Outsourcing wafer manufacturing and now ramping in house capabilities
� Provides solar wafers which are used as the starting material for mono- and multi-crystalline Si based solar cells
� Grouped together to form solar modules, cells convert energy from the sun into usable electricity.
Semiconductor Materials Solar Materials SunEdison
Business Segment Summary
Served market size: $10 billion Served market size: $70 billionServed market size: $15 billion
� Silicon wafers with customized specifications such as size, surface features, composition, purity levels, crystal properties and electrical properties from which virtually all semiconductor devices are manufactured
� Prime Wafers� Epitaxial Wafers
� Test / Monitor Wafers
� Silicon-on-Insulator Wafers (SOI)� Semiconductor devices in turn
supply the intelligence in all electronic devices
Unique & Diversified Positioning
5
Solar Food Chain
Ingot Wafers Cells / Modules Systems/
PV Power PlantPolysilicon
MEMC
Ingot Wafers Semiconductors Electronics
Semiconductor/Electronics Food Chain
Polysilicon
MEMC
$248 billion ~ $1 trillion
$10 billion $16 billion $40 billion
$11 billion
Source: Semi, Photon & MEMC Estimates. Market data for 2008 shown.
Global Leader in Wafer Products to the Semiconductor and Solar Industries, and Solar Energy Services
One of the largest solar energy service providers i n North America� Over 400 solar plants, financed and under O&M� Operational plants in 6 countries and development in 10 other countries� Built first utility scale plant in the U.S and Canada� Tracking 4 GW in project development� Created a JV with First Reserve Corp to invest US $1.5 billion� Built world’s largest PV Power Plant of 70 MW in 2010 in 8 months
Work closely with customers in order to:� Address renewable portfolio requirements� Hedge cost of energy� Provide green energy
Core competencies and key advantages � Internal R&D to optimizes system design and production� Leading monitoring technology maximizes uptime and production� Financing capabilities enable project growth, +$1 bil in projects done– Regulatory support enabled solar markets (CA, CO, AZ, etc)
SunEdison Energy Services OverviewWe develop, build, finance, own and operate solar power plants in order to deliver solar services / sell commercial retail electricity at competitive prices
6
SunEdison: General Overview Indian business model: How do we add value ?
Secure lease contracts and permitting for large rooftop commercial projects and ground-mount projects
Develop portfolio mix towards fully permited projects
Combine project finance and equity placement to investors
Utilize diverse range of financing partners as well as our own balance sheet
Operate, monitor and service projects (overall plant management) leveraging global infrastructure
We invest with a long term view
+ Local developers
Create a strategic partnership with a solid infrastructure companies
While securing the supply chain by providing major components through global purchasing
+ EPC partners + Financing investors + Field O&M providers
7
Estimate & Forecast
GWAnnual Solar Capacity Installation
(GW)
Rest of World 38%
Italy 98%
Germany 36%
Spain 31%
Greece 134%
Canada 134%
US 56%
India 69%
China 124%
Global 45%
Japan 14%
Compound Annual Average Growth Rate*
Active SunEdison
Markets
1.2 1.7 3.6 5.8 7.4 15.2 16.6 18.9
GW Installed per year:
Source: BP Statistical Review, B of A, Merrill Lynch Global Research, Solarbuzz. Note: CAGR based on 2005 to 2012 or growth from year of first capacity addition.
Germany is forecast to remain the dominant
market through 2012; but will decline as the FiT is
reduced and suitable rooftops become more
scarce
Solar PV industry global market outlook
Levelized Cost of Energy US$/ kWh – California and A rizona(ITC & MACRS included)
Source: EIA, and SunEdison
Industry dynamics & the concept of grid parity
Cell efficiency increase
/ scale
Supply / demand imbalance (from aggressive capacity ramp and
capital constraints),
technical innovation,
Margin compression
Grid ParityGrid Parity
Average cost of electricity in California (US$/kWh)
Average cost of electricity in Arizona (US$/kWh)
LCoE in California (US$/kWh)
LCoE in Arizona (US$/kWh)
NG Peaking
LCoE: $0.22 to $0.35/kWhr
Solar Photovoltaics – Markets and Cost Utility scale
>50MW
C-Si (tracking), c-Si,
CdTe, CIGS (?)
� Cost sensitive
� Tracking desirable
� Land costs
� Limited roof space
� Weight considerations
� Building integrated (BIPV)
� Cost sensitive
� No tracking
Commercial>20kW to <2MW
c-Si predominant
� Cost sensitive
� Tracking desirable
� Land costs
Industrial>2MW to <50MW
c-Si, CdTe, CIGS (?)
� Limited roof area
� Aesthetics are important
� Less cost sensitive
� Mounting technology key
� No tracking
Residential/Small Commercial<10kW to <20kW
c-Si predominant
$1.50$3.00$3.50$4.00 $2.50 $2.00$4.50$5.00$5.50$6.00$6.50$0.00
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.35
$0.05
$0.25
$0.30
Lev
eli
zed
Co
st o
f E
ne
rgy
(LC
oE
) –
$/k
Wh
r
Installed cost ($)/Wp
CCNG
LCoE: $0.073 to $0.12/kWhr
Wind
LCoE: $0.044 to $0.09/kWhr
No incentives
Solar PV LCoE for a 1MWp fixed c-Si system, ~1.5Whr/Wp, 6% interest rate
2010 average US retail price: ~10.1¢/kWhr
Relentless cost reduction
Source: PG&E website and MEMC estimates
SunEdison ’s Rovigo Project� SE built Europe’s largest Solar PV Power Plant at
Rovigo, Italy – 70 MW Project Commissioned on
22nd Nov 2010
� System will power ~16,500 homes & prevent
40,000 tons of CO2, equivalent of 8000 cars on road
� Optimum Area Utilization – 206 Acres
(3Acres/MW)
� Record Completion Time
11
Rovigo project video - presentation
12
Rovigo project: A reference within the European PV Marke tLargest solar project in Europe 70MW
Main CharacteristicsLocation Rovigo (Italy)Power rating 70 MWSurface 850,000 sq.mInvestment 250 – 300 M€Jobs ~ 500
Technical AnalysisSubstation 80MVA (20/132 kV)Inverters Central Inverters -
60 units of 1MW cabinsModules ~300,000Modules Manufact. Crystalline Silicon
Yield AnalysisIrradiation (Incl) 1.354 kWh/m2 Performance Ratio ~ 79,25%Estimated Yearly Production 1.115 kWh/kWp
78,6MWh/year
Veneto
13
� Very attractive support scheme, mixing net-metering and well-segmented premium FiT
� New regulation announced for 2011 (New Conto de Energia) continues to support the
investors. Long term planning horizon
� Regulation likely to stay stable given track record
� Good potential for grid parity in medium term future
� Administrative procedures to be harmonized at regional level
� Regional commitment makes a difference
� Short development time frame: Generally, full development within 10 months
� Required for non-recourse financing schemes
Rovigo project: A reference within the European PV Marke tA stable regulatory framework is key
A stable regulatory framework assured by the local and state authorities yields development procedures and security for investors and financiers
14
Rovigo project: A reference within the European PV Market Alignment among various private and public actors i s crucial for success
FINANCING BANKS
EQUITY PARTNERS
SPV
EPC CONTRACTORS
O&M PROVIDERS
AUTHORITIESLOCAL DEVELOPER
No immediate reliance on long
term debt financing partners ensures
fast execution
Strong involvement of
municipalities and regional
government
Local developer brings
knowledge, compliance and
alignment
Equity partners
attract long term
financiers
National Grid Operator (TERNA)
ensures interconnection in
year
PROJECT
15
Rovigo project: Point of reference for the South Af rican market - Timing is critical
Speed of execution a critical factor: 8 months from start of works to interconnectionMEMC/SunEdison financial strength allowed immediate ground break
Jan’10 Feb ‘10 Mar ‘10 Apr ‘10 May’10 Jun’10 Jul’10 Aug’10 Sep ‘10 Oct ‘10 Nov ‘10
Negotiations and Signature
Financing DD and Signature with banks
Civil Works
Inverters and Cabins
Modules
Testing and Comissioning
Interconnection
16
Rovigo project: Point of reference for the South Af rican market - An amazing challenge
Several issues have to be taken into account in order to successfully achieve the project
Optimization of costs
Financing
Timing
Procurement
Redesign of the plant to increase production without compromising performance
Unexpected costs
Establishing a “club deal” among several banksspecialized in Project Finance plus
approaching banks knowing the market conditions
Raising finance for such a big deal (~250M€) in such a narrow time-frame
Provisioning of materials, Perfect coordinationof labor, TERNA negotiation and relationship,…
Essential to interconnect in 2010
Establishment of long term strategic alliances, Dealing with several suppliers,…
Delays in shipment, Lack of panels,…
17
Rovigo project: Point of reference for the South Africa n marketKey Advantages and Disadvantages of Such a Large Pr oject
Advantages Disadvantages
� Economies of Scale
� Stimulates the economy and creates jobs
– 325-400 M $ investment
– Around 500 jobs created
� Projects the region worldwide and in the investment community
� Government to comply with the EU directive: Large scale projects help the country reach EU requirements in timely fashion.
� Deploy 100% renewable energy:
– Rovigo will generate enough energy to power approx. 16,500 homes
– Will prevent the emission of 40.000 tons of CO2 which equates to the removal of 8,000 cars from the road
� Large debt financing to be secured: challenging
� Increasing difficulties in the procurement of modules
� Land availability is usually an issue for such a large terrain: ~170 ha
� Human resources
� Risk concentration
18
SunEdison’s ProjectsProject examples in Europe
1.4 MW – Rome, Italy Solyndra modules, fixed tilt, roof mount
Barbara - 1 MW – Lecce (Apulia), ItalyCrystalline panels, fixed tilt,ground mount
70 MW - Rovigo, Italy. Largest being built in EuropeCrystalline panels, fixed tilt, ground mount
1.6 MW – Lleida, SpainCrystalline panels, Fixed, one-axis, trackers, ground mount
2.0 MW – Cadiz, SpainCrystalline panels, fixed tilt, roof mount
19
SunEdison’s ProjectsProject examples in North America
20
City of San Diego - 1.1 MW - San Diego, CA Crystalline panels, fixed tilt, ground-mount on steel
Kohl’s - 409 KW - Laguna Nigel, CA Crystalline panels, fixed tilt,roof mount; PPA partnership
Duke Energy- 18 MW – Cotton Grove, NCCrystalline panels,one axis, ground mount
9 MW – Ontario, Canada's largest solar parkCd-Te Thin Film panels, fixed tilt, ground mount.
8.2 MW - Alamosa, COCrystalline panels, Fixed, one-axis, & dual-axis trackers, ground mount
Staples - 486 KW - Killingly, CT Thin film panels, fixed tilt,roof mount;; PPA partnership
SunEdison’s ProjectsExample of PPA model: KOHL’S Tailor-Made program (U SA)
SunEdison has positioned Kohl's stores in the third position in the ranking of U.S. green businesses, with Intel, D ell and PepsiCo, without need for capital investment in the project.
21
Contact:Name: Pashupathy GopalanTitle: Managing Director (South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa)[email protected]
www.sunedison.com
22