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Past, Present, and Probable Future of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Dr. Robert MacKay. Outline. Introduction/ Motivation Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change Recent temperature record Past CO2 Present CO2 A simple mathematical/conceptual model Future projections Future emissions - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Past, Present, and Probable Future of
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Dr. Robert MacKay
Outline•Introduction/ Motivation•Natural and Anthropogenic sources of change•Recent temperature record•Past CO2•Present CO2•A simple mathematical/conceptual model•Future projections•Future emissions•Discussion
Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Forcing
No Atmosphere http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/meteor/Animations/greenhouse.jnlp
Today’s Atmosphere
Greenhouse Gases•Water Vapor•Carbon Dioxide•Ozone•Methane•Nitrous Oxide•Chlorofluorocarbons
Cooling to offset warming
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
pH change between 1751 and 1990s. Estimate are that globally ocean surface water pH levels have decreased by as much as .12 units for atmospheric CO2 change from 280 to 360 ppm.
http://www.terrain.org/articles/21/burns.htm
Carbon Dioxide in Prehistoric times
Vostok Ice Core data
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/CO2assign.htm
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/physlets/GlobalPollution/carbon_dioxide.htm
Because of long time delays for the carbon cycle, drastically different scenarios yield very similar results for a 20 year time horizon, but drastically different result for a 50 to 100 year time horizon.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn10507-carbon-emissions-rising-faster-than-ever.html
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
US Carbon emissions through 2004
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
China’s carbon emission through 2004
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
Russia’s carbon emission through 2004
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
India’s carbon emission through 2004
Fossil Fuel Reserves
~40 yrs Oil~80 yrs Natural gas
~200 years coal
World Population
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
Fossil Fuel ReservesOil
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
Fossil Fuel ReservesNatural Gas
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
Fossil Fuel Reservescoal
http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p47.html
http://chooseclimate.org/jcm/index.html
http://chooseclimate.org/jcm/index.html
A -developing countries B-Industrialize countries
http://cs.clark.edu/~mac/CarbonCycle.ppt