Pacific Northwest Weather and Climate, Past, Present and Future George H. Taylor October, 2007
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Pacific Northwest Pacific Northwest Weather and Climate, Weather and Climate, Past, Present and Future Past, Present and Future George H. Taylor George H. Taylor October, 2007 October, 2007
Pacific Northwest Weather and Climate, Past, Present and Future George H. Taylor October, 2007
Pacific Northwest Weather and Climate, Past, Present and Future
George H. Taylor October, 2007
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NCDC US HCN (1221 STATIONS)
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Another problem: compromised station locations
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A study of springtime mountain snowpack in the Pacific
Northwest showed widespread declines in snowpack since 1950 at most
locations with largest declines at lower elevations indicating
temperature effects. Substantial declines (some in excess of 50%)
were common in the Cascades, especially in Oregon. Mote, Philip W.,
Martyn Clark, and Alan F. Hamlet, 2004. Variability and Trends in
Mountain Snowpack in Western North America. 15th Symposium on
Global Change and Climate Variations, Seattle, Washington.
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Sea Level
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The Arctic
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In the Arctic, temperatures in recent decades have gone up
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But an examination of the entire record shows a different
story:
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Changes in Solar Radiation
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The Solar Connection DIRECT EFFECTS Solar brightness or
irradiance variations relatively small (IPCC correct) INDIRECT
EFFECTS UV warming through ozone chemistry Changes in low clouds
through changes in cosmic rays
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R 2 = 0.59 R 2 = 0.64 for 3 year lag temp vs TSI NCDC Annual
Mean US Temperature vs Hoyt Schatten TSI Gleissberg Cycle
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NASA is predicting that the next solar cycle will be moderate
but that the one after will be very weak.
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Some conclusions: 1.The primary mode of variability in climate
over multi- decadal periods in the Northwest appears to be the PDO.
2.Surface temperature is not a good metric for assessing global
climate change (uneven measurement patterns, local interferences).
Other parameters should be used. 3.Adapting to weather extremes is
prudent, and allows us to adapt to climate extremes as well.
4.There are many aspects of climate which are not well understood.
5.This is a great place to live!
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The End
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What Fraction of Global Warming is Due to the Radiative Forcing
of Increased Atmospheric Concentrations of CO2? IPCC View: 58% of
the radiative forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases result from
CO2 48% of the human-caused warming (climate forcing) result from
the radiative effect of CO2. IPCC View: 58% of the radiative
forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases result from CO2 48% of the
human-caused warming (climate forcing) result from the radiative
effect of CO2.
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New Relative Contribution Percent of the Radiative Effect of
CO2 (watts / meter squared) Methane +0.8 Short-wave albedo change
+0.5 Tropospheric ozone +0.3 Aerosol black carbon +0.2 Black carbon
on snow and ice +0.3 Semi-direct aerosol effect +0.1 Glaciation
effect +0.1 Solar influences +0.25 The CO2 contribution to the
radiative warming decreases to 26.5% using the IPCC framework
Methane +0.8 Short-wave albedo change +0.5 Tropospheric ozone +0.3
Aerosol black carbon +0.2 Black carbon on snow and ice +0.3
Semi-direct aerosol effect +0.1 Glaciation effect +0.1 Solar
influences +0.25 The CO2 contribution to the radiative warming
decreases to 26.5% using the IPCC framework
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Glaciers are melting, and the rate of melt is increasing.
Glacier Park may have no glaciers before long.
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Pederson, G.T., Fagre, D.B., Gray, S.T. and Graumlich, L.J.
2004. Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier
National Park, Montana, USA. Geophysical Research Letters 31:
10.1029/2004GL019770.