Northwest Price Spike

Event March 1-4, 2019

WECC Joint RAC/OC/MIC

June 26, 2019

Rich Hydzik, Avista

OC Chair

Analysis of March 1-4

• High electric power prices occurred March 1 through March 4

• WECC Staff reached out to OC and MIC leadership

• Staff requested volunteers to assist

• Was there a reliability issue?

• Advisory group developed a data request to RC

• Utilized publicly available information

• BC Hydro supplied their analysis of conditions in BC

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Weather Conditions

• February was colder than normal in the Northwest and western Canada

• High temperatures were lower than normal• Vancouver, BC – Highs were 4°F below normal

• Calgary, AB – Highs were 25°F below normal

• Cold temperatures carried into March

• High gas demand for heating

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Weather Conditions

4

Weather Conditions

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Gas Supply Conditions

• High gas demand for heating in BC, Alberta, and West Coast of PNW

• West Coast Pipeline running at 80% capacity due to pipeline rupture at Prince George, BC, in October 2018

• Jackson Prairie storage was low due to extensive withdrawals over the winter

• Cold temperatures in Vancouver and I-5 Corridor• Gas demand for heating• Gas demand for electric generation

• Gas generation on west side of Cascades was impacted• Northwest Pipeline did not see reliability issues

• Used strict balancing rules• Contacted customers as needed

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Gas Supply Conditions

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Hydro Supply Conditions

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• PNW experienced below normal precipitation

• Reduced availability for electric generation

• Grand Coulee was operating at minimum discharge to support fish operations

• Grand Coulee ended February below minimum elevation requirements

• Head water storage projects were all below flood control guidance and at minimum discharge

Hydro Supply Conditions

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• British Columbia hydro storage was at a low• Williston and Kinbasket were at record seasonal

lows

• BC Hydro anticipated need to take steps to ensure electric supply• BC Hydro began importing from NW on March 1

• BC Hydro coordinated with BPA to release non-treaty water from Arrow Lakes for US electric generation

Hydro Supply Conditions

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Wind Supply Conditions

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• Wind generation output was very low

• NWPP wind generation had an average capacity factor of 11% March 1 - March 4

• For the same week in the past• 2017 – 41% capacity factor

• 2018 – 25% capacity factor

• NW Wind capacity is 11,940 MW• Highest wind generation was about 2500 MW

• Generally under 1500 MW during this period

Wind Supply Conditions

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Transmission Conditions

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• On February 23, PDCI derated to zero South to North• Scheduled transformer maintenance by LDWP

• Shoulder month maintenance based on historic flows

• Normal PDCI S-N rating is 975 MW

• Path 3 (BC-US) began flowing S-N on March 1

• Path 14 (ID-NW) and Path 17 (Borah West) were heavily loaded

Transmission Conditions

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-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

27-Feb-1900:00:00

27-Feb-1910:00:00

27-Feb-1920:00:00

28-Feb-1906:00:00

28-Feb-1916:00:00

01-Mar-1902:00:00

01-Mar-1912:00:00

01-Mar-1922:00:00

02-Mar-1908:00:00

02-Mar-1918:00:00

03-Mar-1904:00:00

03-Mar-1914:00:00

04-Mar-1900:00:00

Transfer Paths Actual

Path 01 Path 03 Path 08 Path 14 Path 17 Path 65 Path 66

Path 1 – AB to BC Path 3 – PNM to BC Path 8 – MT to PNW Path 14 – ID to PNW Path 17 – Borah West Path 65 – Pacific DC Intertie (PDCI)

Contingency Reserve

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• PNW BA’s maintained required contingency reserve

• NWPP Reserve Sharing Group had excess contingency reserve

• No Energy Emergency Alerts were declared

• No load shedding was necessary to maintain reliability

Observations

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• PNW hydro generation was at low levels• Probably helped contingency reserve available

• Wind generation output was low

• I-5 corridor gas generation was limited

• Coal and nuclear generation performed well

• Solar generation was not a factor - none

• PDCI limited imports into the NW

• Natural gas pricing worked as intended• High prices disincented generation• Gas was available for residential

Observations

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• Contingency Reserve Available• Hydro is limited by availability of water• Gas generation is limited by availability of gas• Fuel-limited resources may be over-counted toward

reserves• Full capacity of the unit may be counted without regard to

the availability of fuel

• Timing of price run up• Forecast on Friday was for continued cold through

Monday• Gas is traded over the weekend• Electric power trades on Friday for weekend and

Monday• Weather moderated over the weekend and Monday• Electric power prices were more normal on Monday

Conclusions

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• Increased gas prices directly affected price of electric power

• This did not create a reliability issue

• No Energy Emergency Alerts

• Adequate contingency reserve

• No indication load was interrupted

Conclusions

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• Multiple factors contributed to conditions• Limited availability of natural gas due to withdrawal

limitations on storage, supply constraints from the rupture of WestCoast pipeline, and increase residential heating demand due to extended cold in BC and Alberta Canada

• Limited deliverability of electric power from outside the region due to planned transmission maintenance

• Limited power generation from wind resources due to extended low temperatures

• Limited availability of hydro power due to abnormally low water conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Western Canada

• Under stressed or extreme weather conditions• Gas resources have a high capacity factor• Wind and solar resources have a lower capacity factor

Recommendations

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• WECC committees, LSEs, and BAs perform analysis to determine the capability of the Western Interconnection to meet demand under extreme hot and cold temperatures

• Studies should focus on the anticipated increase in low capacity-factor wind and solar resources expected to replace high capacity-factor coal and natural gas-fired generation

• Resource Adequacy studies must ensure resources are correctly accounted• Requires interconnection wide study to ensure no double (or

more) counting

• Understand how contingency reserves are reported to account for fuel availability• How long can they deliver?

Acknowledgements

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• Layne Brown and Steve Ashbaker

• BC Hydro

• Brad Bullion (CAISO)

• Greg Park (NWPP)

• OC and MIC participants in advisory group

Contact:

Rich Hydzik, Avistarich.hydzik@avistacorp.com

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