Overview of operational NWP systems at the

Canadian Meteorological Center

Donald TalbotChief of Meteorological Systems Section, CMC

SAAWSO Project WorkshopSt. John’s, April 23rd, 2013

Page 2 – April 21, 2023

Context of the evolution of NWP systems

• Continuing increase in demand for NWP outputs and products• Increasing use of probabilistic products• Increasing need for better integrated environmental information to

support decision-making:– Mitigate increasing vulnerability of society, economy and

infrastructure in face of increasing severity & occurrence of high impact events such as severe weather and pollution episodes

– Know the risks and adapt to a changing climate (extreme weather, development of the North, etc…)

– Maximize efficiency of economy and operations– Support sustainable use and development of natural resource

Page 3 – April 21, 2023

Context of the evolution of NWP systems (cont’d)

• Role of the forecaster…Need to optimize the use of NWP in the operational process…. How to best integrate with the tools (Ninjo…)…

• Integrated multidisciplinary approach to environmental prediction – coupled atmosphere-ocean-ecosystem (whole-earth

simulation), air quality (chemistry)• Broadening of applications

– emergency response, ecosystem, agriculture, forestry, health, energy, transport

– products and services related to multi-hazards environmental alerting platforms

• Optimization of technological transfer process

Page 4 – April 21, 2023

Strong linkages: Research, Development, Operations

Research NWP + Data Assimilation +Air Quality + Cloud Physics + Climate

CMC Development

CMC Operations

Research + Technology TransferResearch + Technology Transfer

Development + Transfer to Ops.Development + Transfer to Ops.

Clients (internal + external)

IT

Including National Labs….

Page 5 – April 21, 2023

Historical HPC evolution and forecast quality at CMC

Nb of model calculation needed - HPC provided - Forecast quality yielded

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Year

Fo

recast

qu

ali

ty

1.0E-02

1.0E-01

1.0E+00

1.0E+01

1.0E+02

1.0E+03

1.0E+04

1.0E+05

1.0E+06

1.0E+07

1.0E+08

1.0E+09Quality of 120h forecast

Sustained Mflops

nb of model calculation needed (1976 model = 1)

GEM glob

res. 33km

GEM glob

res. 100kmSPEC glob

res. 160km

SPEC Hem

res. 350km

SPEC Hem

res. 789 km

Cray NEC IBMCDC

Mflo

ps (

blac

k cu

rve)

Mod

el c

alcu

latio

n w

.r.t

1976

(re

d cu

rve)

P7

P4P5

Page 6 – April 21, 2023

• GEM is the core model for many EC’s applications

GEMGEM

GEM

GEM

GEM

GEMGCM

& GEM

GEM

Modeling systems running onEC supercomputer

Page 7 – April 21, 2023

Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS)Implemented in Operations in December 2011….

• 1-tier system -> two atmosphere-ocean-ice coupled systems

• - CCCma’s CanCM3 = AGCM3 (T63/L31) + OGCM4 10 members

• - CCCma’s CanCM4 = AGCM4(T63/L35) + OGCM4 10 members

• 20 Assimilation & forecast streams

CanSIPS recently joined the US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in a research partnership about Seasonal Forecast

This will lead to a future Operational North American Seasonal Forecast System similarly to the NAEFS partnership

Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts

Page 8 – April 21, 2023

• Global Deterministic Prediction System• 4DVar Data Assimilation, over 6-hour windows• 25 km horizontal resolution, 80 levels• 12Z run to day 6, and 10-day 00Z run

• Global Ensemble Prediction System• Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation, over 6-hour windows• 192 analysis• 16-day ensemble forecast, 2x per day, 20 members 66 km resolution• North American Ensemble Forecast System….

• Set of surface analysis produced daily:Snowpack thickness, Ice coverage, Sea Surface Temperature, Land Surface temperature, CaPA (Canadian Precipitation Analysis )…

Global NWP Systems

Page 9 – April 21, 2023

Verification against radiosondes500hPa Geopotential, 120 hours

Page 10 – April 21, 2023

• Yin-Yang grid- Very good scaling; no pole problem

- Operational in early 2014 at 15 km resolution on 75 P7 nodes (2400 cores)=> Global 240-h forecast in about 1h

• Icosahedra grid– Scaling even better than Yin-Yang grid

Future: new modeling approaches

- Each piece is regular Lat/Lon grid

- Global forecast obtained by 2-way coupling of 2 LAM models

- Coupling done simultaneously at the solver level of both grids => no blending/relaxation of the two solutions needed

Page 11 – April 21, 2023

Global NWP Systems: short term planned improvements

Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) : Yin-Yang grid at 15km, En-Var, more observations, CALDAS (impl toward jan 2014)

Page 12 – April 21, 2023

• Global Deterministic Prediction System• 4DVar Data Assimilation, over 6-hour windows• 25 km horizontal resolution, 80 levels• 12Z run to day 6, and 10-day 00Z run

• Global Ensemble Prediction System• Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation, over 6-hour windows• 192 analysis• 16-day ensemble forecast, 2x per day, 20 members 66 km resolution• North American Ensemble Forecast System….

• Set of surface analysis produced daily:Snowpack thickness, Ice coverage, Sea Surface Temperature, Land Surface temperature, CaPA (Canadian Precipitation Analysis )…

Global NWP Systems

Page 13 – April 21, 2023

Verification GLB – GFS - GEPS

•Sandy was captured too late, so too far north by the upper trough accordingly to this GLB run. The 26/00z GLB was rerun with more assimilated data which lead to a better result.

26/00z run forecast 120h

Page 14 – April 21, 2023

Global NWP Systems : NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System)

• Global ensembles:– NOAA, MSC, NHMS of Mexico: since 2004. – Data exchange in Real-time Operation mode since 2006– FNMOC (US NAVY) may join NAEFS in 2012-13.

• Advantages:– Larger ensemble allowing better PDF definitions – Improved probabilistic forecast performance.– Seamless suite of forecast products across international boundaries

and across different time ranges (1-14 days).– Minimal additional costs – levering computational resources.– Synergy with USA Partners on R&D work.– Collaborative product development. – Contingency with another national NWP Centre.

• Future:– Inclusion of Wave forecast into the exchange– Addition of Regional EPS over North America (downscalling of Global)– Extend lead time to 35 days once a week: Monthly forecast

Page 15 – April 21, 2023

NAEFSCMC vs NCEP

CRPS of GZ500 against North. Hem. radiosondesOperational GEPS in February 2012

CMC vs NAEFS NCEP vs NAEFS

Gain of 8 to 12 h in days 6-7 range for each partner!

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Global NWP Systems: short term planned improvements

Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS):▪ More observations (impl toward jan 2014)▪ Extension of lead-time from 16 to 32-35 day to

provide monthly forecasts (impl toward sept 2013)

Page 21 – April 21, 2023

Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS)4DVar Regional Data Assimilation Re-Initialized from the Global Deterministic Prediction Systemevery 6 hours,

48 and 54-hour forecast, 4x per day, at 10 km resolution, 80 levels

Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS), • 72 hour forecast, 2x per day, 33km resolution• Downscalling of the Global EPS• initialized directly by the Global Ensemble Prediction System

Regional NWP Systems

Page 22 – April 21, 2023

Regional NWP Systems: short term planned improvements

Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS):(Implementation toward dec 2013 ):

▪ More observations

Regional Ensemble Prediction System (REPS): (Implementation toward sept 2013)

▪ increase of resolution from 33 km to 15 km, 28 to 40 levels▪ Addition to NAEFS data exchange

Page 23 – April 21, 2023

Upcoming NWP operational implementations requiring significant HPC power

• 4 Limited-Area 2.5 km grids, 58 levels, 24-hour forecast

• In 2013 or 2014 National LAM 2.5 km domain, 2 x day; replacing the 4 LAM 2.5 windows

Page 24 – April 21, 2023

Regional NWP SystemsGEM-MACH Air Quality forecast model

• On-line chemical transport model based on the GEM weather forecast model (and piloted by regional GEM), 10km resolution

– Provides 48H forecasts of O3, PM2.5 and NO2 twice a day

Domain

• Work on the inclusion of near real-time wildfire emissions from Canada and United States in the model (impl in 2014)

Aug. 19 NOAA MODIS Image

Hot Spots on 18 August 2010. Source: Canadian Forest Service

GEM-MACH PM2.5 forecast, 19 August 2012, 1400 UTC

Page 25 – April 21, 2023

Other NWP Systems

Wave Forecasting: – Spectral Wave Model (WAM)

48-h regional / 120-global forecasts of wave height and period, swell height and period, and wave and swell directions;

Regions: Pacific, Atlantic and Canadian Great Lakes and Arctic

New version implemented in May 2012, 4x per day

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice forecasting system for the Gulf of St-Lawrence

Implemented in spring of 2011…

….Kind of the start of the “Canadian Operational Network of Coupled Environmental Prediction Systems” (CONCEPTS)…. Towards implementing global ocean model by 2013….

Page 26 – April 21, 2023

End of 2012 2016 2020

Global

Regional

Urban

Local

Det. 25 km

Det. 10 km

EPS 15 km

Det. 2.5 km

Det. 250-> 5m

Det. 10 km

EPS 35 km

Det. 2.5 km

EPS 10 km

EPS 2.5 km

Det. 3m EPS 5m

Det. 10 km

EPS 20 km

Det. 1.5 km

EPS 10 km

EPS 1.5 km

Det. 1m EPS 5m

Future evolution of CMC atmospheric models

EPS 66 km

Page 27 – April 21, 2023

Evolution of NWP systems…. Link to overall MSC strategy

Linkage of NWP to the implementation of key « Signature

projects » at MSC….

Page 28 – April 21, 2023

Charting a course for the future of weather forecasting within the MSC

Identifying Key strategies that integrates the vision and mandate of MSC (signature projects):

– Weather Warning and Service Delivery System Re-engineering– Modern Day Monitoring Strategy– Next Generation Prediction System– High Performance Computing– Air Quality and Health Services– Meteorological Services to the Arctic (METAREAs Initiative) – Integrated Environmental Prediction Science– Climates and Water Services Strategy

Integrating specific programs and tools dealing with the detection, evaluation and information of weather related risks and impacts

Merci !