Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Gilles Verner (Josée Morneau) Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control Canadian Meteorological Centre

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report

Gilles Verner (JosGilles Verner (Josée Morneau)ée Morneau)Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality ControlChief, Data Assimilation and Quality ControlCanadian Meteorological CentreCanadian Meteorological CentreMeteorological Service of CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada

Joint NAEDEX-23 andAPSDEU-11 MeetingsBoulder, USA.02-06 May 2011

Mike ManoreMike ManoreDirector, Monitoring Strategies andDirector, Monitoring Strategies andNetwork DesignNetwork DesignMeteorological Service of CanadaMeteorological Service of Canada

NAEDEX-23 and APSDEU-11, Boulder – May 02-06, 2011Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report

Outline

• Current Operational Status:

– Space Based Monitoring and Satellite reception facilities– IT Infrastructure (Computers and Telecoms)– Operational NWP system at CMC, data usage– Canadian observations; migration to TDCF and some data issues

• Recent NWP Changes and Future Developments:

– Oct. 2010: Regional LAM 3D-Var– March/April 2011: Canadian Pcp Anal. (CaPA) + CIS 3D-Var Ice Anal.– June: Major Global improvement: (mods. to physics and more obs., SST)– June: Major EPS improvement: EnKF and model resolution, SST– July: Regional EPS– Next: Regional LAM 4D-Var– Next: Update to Sat. Obs (RARS, GPSRO, AVHRR Winds)– Future : data usage, assimilation and models


Space-Based Monitoring activities

Environment Canada lead: Mike Manore

1. understanding satellite data requirements ▪ Environment Canada wide▪ meteorological, climate, ice, marine oil spill, wildlife habitat, etc,….

2. ensuring data access & exchange▪ coordination/arrangements with satellite operators and other users

– gov’t-to-gov’t, gov’t-to-agency, commercial– MoU with NOAA, Agreement with Eumetsat…– all appropriate missions and sensors

▪ operation of EC satellite data reception and processing systems– within Gov’t of Canada ‘Shared Federal Infrastructure’– EC leadership for operational meteorological missions– operate as a national network: GOES- Alfheim; HRPT – Bradley– ownership for national SAR wind system

▪ future missions– influence future missions to meet EC requirements – Canada (CSA), International– E.G. CSA PCW mission– Chinook mission – no longer in the plan


MSC Satellite Data Reception Facilities

Dartmouth

Toronto

Vancouver

WinnipegCMC (3)

Edmonton (2)

Ottawa

Resolute

EARS - Eumetsat

GOES

HRPT

EARS

Three HRPT sites are METOP ready (received in Gander).X-band capability in Edmonton (1 site).

Upgrade to Resolute HRPT site and telecoms (T1) completed in 2010

Gander

UK MetO

NOAA


Example of N-18 image from Resolute Bayavailable in Dorval 12 minutes after end of scan


IT - Computers and Telecoms

• Current IBM status :– OPS: 121 compute nodes; R&D: 121 compute nodes – Total of 4512 P5+ processors

• New 2.5 year contract signed with IBM - upgrade in Sept. 2011. Plan is twin clusters, total 16384 P7 cores (~10x current capacity) OFF-SITE turnkey system

• FE’s: all Linux based, new clusters soon (used for pre- and post-processing); major project in 2010

• Links to NOAA-TOC (GTS), UK MetOUK MetO (meteosat + GTS (meteosat + GTS back-up),back-up), EUMETSAT (EARS), internet to NESDIS/NCEP

• Recent discussions for link to NOAA (TOC-NCEP-NESDIS), at 45 mbps capacity. Target is Fall 2011.

• Recent discussions with UK MetO – RMDCN connection• EumetCast also under consideration


Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Forecasting & Modelling System

2010-2020

Regional and Mesoscale Forecast ( 24-48 h, 10-15 km )

& Data assimilation

Medium-range Forecast ( 240 h, 10 to 35 km )

& Data assimilation

Middle Atmosphere Model &

Data assimilation

Regional Climate Model

Monthly Forecast

Multi- Seasonal Forecast

Ensemble Forecast

Limited-Area Model 0-24h 1-2.5km

& Data assimilation

S P A C E

S C A L E

TIME SCALE

Micro-meteorology (10m-1km)

CMC-MRD unified multi-scale model : GEM

GEM = Global Environmental Model


GDPS RDPS HRDPS AQ-RDPS

Forecast Objectives

Medium-Range

Weather

Short-Range Weather

Immediate & Short-Range

Weather

Short-Range Air quality

(O3 & PM2.5)

Model &

Domain(s)

GEM

global

GEM-LAM

Regional :

N. Am. & adj. waters

GEM-LAM

4 domains: West, East, Maritimes,

Arctic

GEM-MACH

Canada (Sub domain of

RDPS)

Horizontal

grid

33km

800x600

15km

649x672(glb pilot : 55 km)

2.5 km

~600x470

15 km

348x465

Vertical levels / Lid

L80

0,1 hPa

L80

0,1 hPa

L58

10hPa

L58

0,1 hPa

Lead Time

(Initial time)

240h

(00z & 12z)

48h/54h

(00z, 06z, 12z, & 18z)

24h

(West & East, 12z

Marit. & Arc., 06z)

48h

(00z & 12z)

Analysis or initial conditions

4D-VarT108 Inner Loops :

G240x120L80

3D-Var(FGAT)

T200 Inner Loops : G400x200L80

Downscaling from 00z RDPS

boundary conditions: RDPS fcst


GEPS GEPS

Summer 2011

REPS

Summer 2011

Forecast Objectives

Extended-Range Weather/NAEFS

Extended-Range Weather/NAEFS

Short Range Weather

Model &

Domain

GEM Ensemble

Global(20 members)

GEM Ensemble

global(20 members)

GEM-LAM Ensemble

Regional(20 members)

Horizontal

grid

0.9ox0.9o (100km)

400x200

0.6ox0.6o (66km)

600x300

0.3ox0.3o (33km)

280x287

Nested with GEPS

Vertical levels &

Lid height

L28

10hPa

L40

2hPa

L28

~10hPa

Lid nested with GEPS

Lead Time

(Initial time)

384h

(00z & 12z)

384h

(00z & 12z)

72h

(00z & 12z)

Analysis EnKF96 members

400x200L58

EnKF192 members

400x200L58

Downscaling from GEPS


Emergency Response

Wave forecasting

Monthly & Seasonal forecasts

Seasonal forecasts?

Forecast Objectives

Short, Medium & Long Range

Simulations and Hindcast

Short-medium wave and swell (height & period and

swell directions

Long -Range Weather

(Deterministic, probabilistic)

Long -Range Weather

(Deterministic, probabilistic)

Model &

Domain(s)

MLDP0 & MLDP1

(Atm. Transport & Dispersion Mdl)

WAM

Pacific, Atlantic and Cnd Great Lakes & Arctic

4 mdls: GEM-clim,MCGA2,MCGA3 & SEF

global

4 mdls: GEM-clim,MCGA2,MCGA3 & SEF

global

Horizontal

grid

10-100km (MLDP0)

0,1-33km (MLDP1)

~0,05ox0,05o (lakes) ~0,5ox0.5o (other

domains)

200-625km 200-625km

Forecast Hour

(Initial time)

10-30 days (MLDP0)

12h (MLDP1)

48h regional

120h global

1 month (1st & 15th of the month)

3 months (1st of the month)

months 3, 6 & 9

Initial/

Boundary conditions

3D fields from RDPS or GDPS

10m winds from RDPS or GDPS

GDPS?


OPS REG-LAM 3D-Var System

Blue shows the uniform resolution section of previous variable resolution GEM

Red shows the grid of the operational REG-LAM3D(15-km, 649x672) with3D-Var assimilation (100 km) on the LAM domain

Boundary conditions are obtained from a uniform resolution (55 km) global GEM initialized by a 3D-Var analysis (T108, ~185 km) valid at the same time as the LAM analysis


Current Hi-Res (2.5 km) LAM windows


North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS):

Joint project involving MSC, NWS and the NMSM


Various configurations of Reg. EPS

Beijing 2008

Vancouver 2010

Haïti 2010/11

OPS-REPS


Observations assimilated at CMC

200kmx200km/time step7 MW channels

U,V at 10 meter over ocean

250kmx250km/time step87 IR channels

SSM/I NIL

ASCAT

AIRS

(750 m) Vertical hourlyU,VProfiler (NOAA Network)

~180 km boxes11 layers, per time step

U,VMODIS polar winds

(Aqua, Terra, Global & DB)

1.5o x 1.5o

11 layers, per time step

U,V

(IR, WV, VI, 3.9μ channels)

AMV’s(METEOSAT E-W, GOES E-W, MTSAT-1R)

2o x 2o 3-hourlyIM3 (6.7 m)Water vapor channel GOES 11-13

250 km x 250 km

per time step

Ocean Land

AMSU-A 4-14 6-14

AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4

ATOVS

NOAA 15-16-17-18-19, AQUA, METOP

1o x 1o x 50 hPaper time step

U, V, TAircraft

(BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS)

1 report / 6hT, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water)Surface report

(SYNOP, SHIP, BUOYs)

28 levelsU, V, T, (T-Td), psRadiosonde/dropsonde

ThinningVariablesType

100kmx100km/time step

U,V

GPSRO (COSMIC, GRACE, GRAS) Refractivity 830 m, per time step


Canadian observations - MTDCF

• Two major areas of development underway for MTDCF (leads are Tony Colavecchia and Yves Pelletier)

• Radiosonde data: Using Vaisala software at each site to generate both alphanumeric and BUFR bulletins (template with 4D trajectory). BUFR data from 2 sites received and validated at CMC. Awaiting telecoms upgrade for full network deployment

• Surface data: Will have centralized processing (DMF initiative) using raw data formats from stations to encode in BUFR using template 3 07 080 plus a national template extension. Data from SYNOP, METAR and SA will be in BUFR. Test data to be available at CMC during Summer 2011.

• Will need a transition period when data in both BUFR and alpha. codes would be available. Some data processing adaptation to do (both NWP and forecast applications) and need to have some data to do so!

• Have started to process international data fro NWP and DMF.


Canadian observations

• Canadian radiosonde data – still alternating between Loran sondes (no wind) and GPS sondes, roughly ½ network each. To be completed by end of Summer. Issue related to large stock of Loran sondes. Additional cost to operate 100% GPS is $1M.

• Canadian radar data - available at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) is operational, full volume scans available. Available to NOAA on CMC datamart but not yet in BUFR. No QPE product yet. Issue of data exchange format.

• Some research wind profilers in Southern Ontario and Quebec: operated by University and private company, data now available to CMC from 8 sites and should be inserted on GTS once validated, in BUFR code (OPERA software): headers to be communicated as soon as available. Another 2 sites in 2011, but significant issues with operating funds. Data quality issues have been identified and is slowing down progress.

• Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR as part of MTDCF.

• Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…data now in BUFR.

• Some soil TT data now available, eventually in BUFR. Alphanumeric format could be made available.

• Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone.


• “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail: data problems as reported by MetOffice and NOAA : surface elevations are not available or wrong. Data should be inserted by each individual country and not by CMC.

• SAR-Winds: Demonstration application generates marine sfc winds from SAR and ASAR imagery (Radarsat and Envisat). Fairly high resolution over small areas, wind direction information obtained from NWP model (LAM or REG) or from cross-polarization if available. One-year transition before full operational transition.

• Canadian AMDAR – very little change to operations:• AC Jazz: data from 25 CRJ on GTS, all on GTS. Data received from 4 DHC-8

only, but retained due to ongoing problems with data quality of DHC-8.• Also obtaining data from 2 NavCanada CRJ’s, data quality is good and

transmitted on GTS. Often in remote areas and low levels.• No progress with other airlines.• MSC-ADAS system and software is used for data reception and processing,

in-house Linux based system. Fully redundant.• Monitoring of data is on-going and showing importance of good monitoring

before distribution of data.

Canadian observations


Canadian AMDAR coverage


Ontario-Québec Wind Profiler Network (OQ Net)

Courtesy of Wayne Hocking (University of Western Ontario)


Scatter plots (OQnet) – March 2011

1000 m

8000 m

5000 m

10000 m

3000 m

Bias = 0.43

STD = 3.69

Bias = 0.21

STD = 3.98

Bias = 0.38

STD = 2.48

Bias = -0.46

STD = 3.46

Bias = -0.24

STD = 5.11


Scatter plots (NOAA) – March 2011 Wolcott, Blueriver, Woodlake, Winchester, Slater, Neligh

1000 m

7750 m

4750 m

10000 m

3250 m

Bias = -0.16

STD = 2.19

Bias = -0.75

STD = 2.51

Bias = 0.11

STD = 1.91

Bias = 0.02

STD = 2.05

Bias = -0.36

STD = 2.75


Eaxple of SAR Wind - Barrier Jet - 17 Feb 2007


Availability of aircraft data : status

ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO – on GTS

Large increase in amount of ADS data in North Atlantic!

Alaska Airlines has joined the MDCRS in the USA


Availability of aircraft data : status

ADS: UANT01 CWAO – also UANT99 KDDL


Other data issues

• SSM/I F15 – Still received and used for operational ice analysis• Future plans for Scatterometer? Availability of OceanSat?• Access to SMOS data ? Data volume (10 GB/day is problematic for

NRT NWP (CaLDAS). Need a lower volume NRT product.• Would like to access direct broadcast FY-3a. Agreement signed

with CMA, but still need technical information to adapt AHRPT receivers and processing software (any info. would be useful). Interested in accessing Global sounder data if available?

• Collection of global ADS-Met data. Recent increase over North Atlantic appears mostly uncoordinated? What about expansion of ADS in other areas?

• GeoNetcast system for Americas – with similar content as Eumetcast Ku band?

• Access to other GPS-RO instruments if possible.• Issue with change in COSMIC GPS-RO in Oct 2009


Change in processing of COSMIC GPSRO data – 12 oct 2009

Change in Oct. 2009

Change in Oct. 2009


Change in processing of COSMIC GPSRO data – 12 oct 2009

Starting October 12, 2009 00:00UTC, the CDAAC near real-time data products will include Starting October 12, 2009 00:00UTC, the CDAAC near real-time data products will include the changes explained in COSMIC status updates from April 16, 2009 and May 12, 2009.bthe changes explained in COSMIC status updates from April 16, 2009 and May 12, 2009.b

MetO not affected – not using Ps correction in adjoint


Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting(much delays due to Linux migration in 2010)

October 2010 – Regional LAM 3D-Var• Continental scale limited area version of GEM, same resolution• Hourly piloting (BC’s) from 55-km global system, run at same time as

LAM, with its own 3DVar analysis• Using same data as previous system• Paper of Fillion et al, Weather & Forecasting, 2010.• Data assimilation support for higher resolution LAMs• 4D-Var version now ready (April 2011)

March 2011 – CaPA (Canadian Precipitation Analysis)• Optimum interpolation, 6h and 24h accumulations, NOAM domain• First guess from Reg-15 km• SYNOP, METAR, SHEF, SA, RMCQ (COOP sites) data• Requires extensive QC, particularly in Winter• Analysis must include confidence index for use• Radar QPE not yet included


Spin-up of REG-LAM 3D-Var


CaPA 6h, 2011-03-11 00-06Z

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE


Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting

March 2011 – CIS 3D-Var NOAM Ice Analysis• Explosion in availability of SAR data in next 5 years, and rapid evolution in

quantity of ice products to generate• Need to automate some labour intensive tasks at CIS• Goal is to produce automated analyses of sea-ice conditions for

operational needs of MSC:• enhanced ability of CIS to deliver operational sea-ice products over larger

area than currently possible

• improved NWP by supplying better sea-ice analyses for initializing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the Arctic.

• Using NWP-like data assimilation set-up, 5-km NOAM grid• SSM/IS and AMSR-E using Nasa-Team-2 algorithmSSM/IS and AMSR-E using Nasa-Team-2 algorithm• CIS RadarSat image analysis and daily ice chart (manual analyses)CIS RadarSat image analysis and daily ice chart (manual analyses)• CIS lake analysis (manual analysis)CIS lake analysis (manual analysis)• First automated product at CIS to be Davis Strait Ice Edge• Global configuration (10-km) in preparation for operational NWP at CMC• Future: Assimilation of scatterometer, visible-infrared, SAR/ASAR and ice

thickness satellite-based observations• Future: Coupling to regional and global ice-ocean-atmosphere models


Assimilated data: Typical data coverage

CIS daily ice charts

SSM/I ice concentration AMSR-E ice concentration

CIS image analyses


Next version of global system – June 2011

• Change to physics to reduce false alarms in tropical cyclones (more stable tropical BL)

• New SST global analysis• Improved dynamical bias correction for radiances (same code for all)• SSM/IS (7 SSMI-like channels), F16 only• IASI (62 channels, initially planned for 150), no WV• WV AIRS channels initially included were rejected• CSR (Geo-rad) data with RTTOV – 5 GEO (includes MTSAT)• Reduced thinning for all radiance data (from 250 km to 150 km, roughly 3x

more radiance data)• Moisture data from AMDAR• FASTEM bug fix in RTTOV• Increased resolution of inner loops to T180 rejected (due to timings)• Accepted for operational implementation; subjective evaluation very positive,

including tropical cyclone forecasts. Small anal. differences over Pacific leading to often better medium range forecasts NOAM

• Total data count increasing from 1.9M/day to 4.1M/day• All changes also included in Regional system


Verification against raobs – day 6

Northern Hemis.O-F 144hr

Southern Hemis.O-F 144hr

OPSPAR


Northern Hemis.GZ 500 hPa

Southern Hemis.GZ 500hPa

TropicsGZ 500hPa

Verification: anomaly correlationOPSPAR

RMS


Next version of global EPS – June 2011

• GEM with staggered vertical coordinate• New SST global analysis (same as global)• EPS at higher horizontal resolution (600x300, ~66 km)• L40, top at 2 hPa• Revised stochastic parameterizations• EnKF using 192 members• Each member at same resolution as before (400x200, ~100 km) with

L58 and top at 2 hpa• Incorporates AMSUA channels 11 and 12• Still using old thinning for all radiance data (from 250 km)• FASTEM bug fix in RTTOV as in GDPS• Bias correction and QC from GDPS• Still under evaluation in parallel run but approval for operational

implementation expected soon; subjective and objective evaluation very positive, much improved verifications.


• Regional Ensemble Prediction System (accepted)– 20 members, GEM-LAM grid, 33-km L28– 72-hr fcst, initial condition from GEPS-EnKF– Boundary conditions from 20-GEPS members

• Reg-LAM 4D-Var (ready for proposal)– Same grid as Reg-LAM 3D-Var– Same obs. as new global system (80% more obs than 3DVar)– TLM/AD piloting from global trial fields– Upgrade to 10-km planned for early 2012

• Update to observations– GPSRO update (TerraSARX, SAC-C)– RARS AMSUA/B/MHS (EARS/AP-RARS/SA-RARS)– AVHRR Polar Winds– Satellite changes (GOES, MTSAT : CSR &AMV`s, SSMIS)– Additional AIRS & IASI channels ? RTTOV-10 ?

NWP changes in next few months(but IBM migration to take care of…)but IBM migration to take care of…)


48-h DIFF RMSE (m)GZ-500 hPa

Winter-2009

Blue: 4D-Var is better

Verifications against G2 4D-Var Analyses


SUMMER-200812h Forecast

UV-500 hPa

REG-3DREG-4D

Winter 200948h Forecast

GZ-500 hPa


Longer term NWP changes and data

• Global 20-25 km and vertical staggering, T180 inner loops, 100-km thinning• Increase resolution in GEPS/EnKF, use of GEPS for monthly forecasting• Windsat ; NPP (ATMS,CrIS) ; Metop- 2 ; OceanSAT (scat)? GPS-ZWD

(Reg-4dvar) ; • Radiosonde data in BUFR (4D profiles), similar processing as for AMDAR• CaLDAS (SMOS data, eventually SMAP, soil TT profiles)• Begin development of Regional-EnKF for REPS• Data assimilation for sea ice (3D-Var global and lam): SSMIS, AMSR, SAR• Other satellite observations as they become available (ADM-Aeolus, GPM,

Sentinel, etc)• Assimilation of cloudy radiances• EC involvement in PCW if mission is approved (ground segment, data

processing and products), assimilation• Assimilation of chemical constituents in GEM-MACH (R. Ménard)• Ocean modelling and assimilation (with Mercator)• Major project underway to unify the EC assimilation systems to meet Major project underway to unify the EC assimilation systems to meet

requirements of both EPS and Deterministic systemsrequirements of both EPS and Deterministic systems• Coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice NWP/Assimilation system


Monitoring Web sites

• http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring

• http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring/CAMDAR

• http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/data_monitoring/SAR

• User: monitoring PW: CMC

• http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/grib/index_e.html

For description of nwp fields


www.ec.gc.ca

Documents

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Gilles Verner (Josée Morneau) Chief, Data Assimilation and Quality Control Canadian Meteorological Centre