A QUICK OVERVIEW OF CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH

Michael  A.  Taylor  Climate  Studies  Group,  Mona  (CSGM)  

Department  of  Physics  University  of  the  West  Indies,  Mona  

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH

     

•  Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean.

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•  Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean.

 Strong Motivation “  The  size,  topography  (steep  hilly  interiors  and  narrow  coastal  zones)  and  economic  ac9vi9es  force  considera9on  of  climate  as  an  issue  for  the  Caribbean,  especially  rainfall…”  

   “There  is  an  overwhelming  dependence  on  surface  and  groundwater    which  means  a  very  strong  dependence  on  rainfall”  

“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”

CLIMATE RESEARCH

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4 Areas of concentration

CARIBBEAN RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY

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Taylor and Alfaro (2005)

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1. Dry Season December - April

3. Bimodal - MSD Early season - May-July Late Season - Aug –Nov

2. Rainfall Season May - November Peaks in September/October

Interest:    What  drives  this  paDern…      

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CARIBBEAN RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY

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Chen and Taylor (2002)

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High  Pressure  

Trade  Wind  Strength  +  verIcal  shear  

SSTs  

Easterly  Waves  

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CARIBBEAN RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY

Ashby et al. (2005) Gamble et al. (2008)

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(3)

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150

Jan FebMarAprMay Jun Ju

lAugSep Oc

tNovDec

mm

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Celsius

NAH moves closer to equator

Stronger trades

Low SST

Mid-lat fronts

NAH starts Northward migration

Weaker trades

SST begins to increase

NAH temporarily retreats Southward

‘Mid-Summer Drought’

NAH return Northward

High SST

Easterly waves

ITCZ North

Jamaica

Climatology (Bar graph – precip, line graph –temp)

Air Temp follows the sun

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CARIBBEAN RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY

CSGM (2012)

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DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY

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1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

(a)

(c) (d)

(b) NDJ

FMA

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

MJJ

ASO

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

MJJ

ASO

 2.  Dry  season  drier  in  south  Caribbean  

 1.  Late  wet  season  drier  in  most  of  the  Caribbean  

 3.  Early  Wet  season  drier  in  most  of  the  Caribbean  

El Niño

DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY

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Taylor et al. (2002) Spence et al. (2004) Gouirand et al. (2013)

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1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

(a)

(c) (d)

(b) NDJ

FMA

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

MJJ

ASO

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

1 6 0 W 1 2 0 W 8 0 W 4 0 W 2 0 S

0

2 0 N

4 0 N

-1 0 0-7 5 -5 0 -2 5 0 2 5 5 0 7 5 1 0 0

9 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 W

1 0 N

1 5 N

2 0 N

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

MJJ

ASO

 2.  Dry  season  drier  in  south  Caribbean  

 1.  Late  wet  season  drier  in  most  of  the  Caribbean  

 3.  Early  Wet  season  drier  in  most  of  the  Caribbean  

El Niño

DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY

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 Changes  large  scale  circulaIons  

Increases  shear   Warms  Caribbean  Sea  

Taylor et al. (2002) Spence et al. (2004) Gouirand et al. (2013)

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NAO+ ENSO

¢  Combina9ons  of  PaBerns  of  variability  

+50% a 3-5 yrs +15-30% a 5-10 yrs 20% a >10 yrs

+60% a 3-5 yrs 15-30% a 5-10 yrs

<50% a 3-5 yrs 15-30% a 5-10 yrs 16-33% a >10 yrs

Gouirand et al. (2011)

DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY

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Fig. 1 Heterogeneous correlation maps for CCA mode 1 for Jan-Feb.

Gradients  in  SSTs  between  Equatorial  Pacific  and  Tropical  AtlanIc  

Low  level  wind  strengths  (CLLJ)  

Drier  than  normal    Caribbean  basin  during  midsummer  drought  

DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY

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Gradient Indices

Taylor et al. (2002) Whyte et al. (2007) Gouirand et al. (2013)

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Fig. 1 Heterogeneous correlation maps for CCA mode 1 for Jan-Feb.

Caribbean Rain/Drought Models  

MJJ RAIN = – 0.0610 + 0.3111 NINO3(FMA) – 0.0675 SLP2(FMA) – 0.0299 SLP4(FMA) + 0.1187 VSH4(FMA)

ASON RAIN = – 0.0280 + 1.5822 CSST(MJJ) – 0.7227 PACEq(MJJ) – 0.5739 PACTNA(MJJ)

R2 = 0.76

R2 = 0.70

DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY

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Ashby et al. (2005)

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Drought Influences

CLIMATE EXTREMES

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12 month SPI Caribbean

Walters et al. (2014)

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SST composite: Flood minus Drought

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HISTORICAL DROUGHT Significant Drought and Drought Influences

Walters et al. (2014)

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Stephenson et al (2014)

Total rainfall

Intense rainfall

1961-2010 1986-2010

Other Indices of Rainfall/Drought

CLIMATE EXTREMES

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Stephenson et al (2014)

Other Indices of Rainfall/Drought

CLIMATE EXTREMES

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Day time temperatures

Night time temperatures

1961-2010 1986-2010

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Regional Climate Model

•  PRECIS, RegCM, WRF

•  Caribbean

•  Scale <50 km

CLIMATE MODELS

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Caribbean consists of territories with limited and unequally distributed resources and capacities. Effectively responding to the crisis of climate change needs coordination and collaboration. Coordinated Science approach

Since 2009… Resolution (Km)   Coverage   Boundary Data   SRES  50   1960 - 1990   HadAM3P   A2  50   2070 - 2100   HadAM3P   A2  50   2070 - 2100   HadAM3P   B2  50   1960 - 2100   ECHAM4   A2  50   1990 - 2100   ECHAM4   B2  50   1989-2002   ERA-INTERIM  50   1979-1993   ERA15  25   1960 - 2040   HadCM3Q0   A1B  25   1960 - 2040   HadCM3Q3   A1B  25   1960 - 2040   HadCM3Q4   A1B  25   1960 - 2040   HadCM3Q10   A1B  25   1960 - 2040   HadCM3Q14   A1B  25   1960 - 2040   HadCM3Q11   A1B  25   1960 - 2100   ECHAM5   A1B  50   1989-2002   ERA-INTERIM  50   1960–2000   ERA40  

PRECIS

RegCM4 h t t p : / / p r e c i s . i n s m e t . c u / P r e c i s -Caribe.htm

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CLIMATE MODELS - COLLABORATION

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CLIMATE MODELS - VALUE

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Regional models are important and necessary tools for providing climate change information at the scale of the Caribbean.

CRU (observed)

CMIP3 GCMs

Karmalkar et al. (2013)

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CLIMATE MODELS - VALUE

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Regional models are important and necessary tools for providing climate change information at the scale of the Caribbean.

CRU (observed)

PRECIS (RCM)

Present day rain Karmalkar et al. (2013)

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CLIMATE MODELS - PHYSICS

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G. ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICAN MIDSUMMER DROUGHT Martinez et al. (2014)

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CLIMATE MODELS – DOMAIN

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Centella et al. (2014)

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Mean  changes  in  the  annual  rainfall  for  2071-­‐2099  with  respect  to  1961-­‐1989,  as  simulated  by  PRECIS_ECH  and  PRECIS_Had  for  SRESA2  and  SRESB2.    

General tendency for drying (main Caribbean basin) by end of the century. Drying between 25% and 30%

Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ and FMA.

Drying exceeds natural variability June-October – wet season dryer!

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CLIMATE MODELS - PROJECTIONS

Campbell et al. (2010)

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Mean  changes  in  the  annual  mean  surface  temperature    for  2071-­‐2099  with  respect  to  1961-­‐1989,  as  simulated  by  PRECIS_ECH  and  PRECIS_Had  for  SRESA2  and  SRESB2.    

Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm. Warming between 1 and 5oC

Warming greater under A2 scenario.

Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe.

Warming far exceeds natural variability

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CLIMATE MODELS - PROJECTIONS

Campbell et al. (2010)

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hot hotter

Taylor et al. (2011)

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Why?

CLIMATE MODELS - DYNAMICS

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Modeling the impact of climate change on the hydropower potential of Suriname – A study of the Kabalebo river basin HYDRO model, GIS, PRECIS (25 km)

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Nurmohamed et al. (2013) Donk et al. (2014)

CLIMATE MODELS - IMPACTS

CARIBBEAN CLIMATE RESEARCH

     

•  Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean.

28

     

•  Fair amount of climate science research being done about the Caribbean within the Caribbean.

 Strong Motivation “  The  size,  topography  (steep  hilly  interiors  and  narrow  coastal  zones)  and  economic  ac9vi9es  force  considera9on  of  climate  as  an  issue  for  the  Caribbean,  especially  rainfall…”  

   “There  is  an  overwhelming  dependence  on  surface  and  groundwater    which  means  a  very  strong  dependence  on  rainfall”  

“It’s okay to use the words Climate research and Caribbean in the same sentence…”

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SUMMARY OF CLIMATE RESEARCH

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CARIBBEAN RAINFALL CLIMATOLOGY

DRIVERS OF VARIABILITY

EXTREMES

CLIMATE MODELS

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Thank You