Outlook of Electric Vehicles and Smart Grid

Professor C.C. Chan, FIEEE, FIET, FHKIE

Academician, Chinese Academy of EngineeringFellow, Royal Academy of Engineering, U.K.,

President, World Electric Vehicles AssociationPresident, Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific

Honorary Professor, University of Hong Kong

KEYNOTE SPEECH

VPPC 2010, Lille, FranceSeptember 1, 2010

Content• Global Sustainable Development

• Technical & Commercial Roadmaps of Electric Vehicles

• Smart Grid & Electric Vehicles

2003: Artic ice free by 2070

2008: Artic ice free by 2013 ?

<Automobile Related Issues

Sharp Increase on Fossil

Fuel Consumption

Worldwide Industry and

Technology Developments in

the 20th Century

Increase on Traffic Accidents

Increase on CO2 emission

(Global Warming)

Stress on Oil Reserve

Air Pollution (Nitrogen oxides,

Particulates, Ozone)

Problems from Automobiles

-Population Growth

-Vehicle Population

Growth

Automobile Revolution in New Century

• Energy: Efficient, Alternative Fuels.

• Environment: Minimal Emissions.

• Safety and Intelligent.

• Powertrain: Electrification and hybridization

• Alternative Fuels

• Control: New Control Theory and Algorithm, Computerization and Digitalization

• Future Vehicle: 4 wheels +computer

Fuel-and Powertrain Strategy

Success of EV/PHEV - Goodness Factor :Good Products;

Good Infrastructure; Good Business Model.

Infrastructure

ProductsBusiness

models

EV

Market

Success

Good Products:High Performance @ Reasonable Cost

I: Integration of Automotive Technology and Electrical Technology

A: Alliance among Auto Makers and Key Component Suppliers

Chasis & Body

Technology

Powertrain Technology

Energy Storage Technology

I+A

Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Powertrain Integration

Good Infrastructure: Efficient & Convenience

Parking

Durations

14 hrs per day 2 hrs per day 7 hrs per day

Charging

Points

1 charging point per

vehicle

< 0.5 charging point per vehicle 1 charging point per

vehicle

Power &

Charing time

Requirements

Low power and

normal charging

(e.g. 3kW, 10 hrs)

High power and quick charging

(e.g. 22 kW, 2 hrs)

Low power and

normal charging

(e.g. 3kW, 7 hrs)

Swapping, Intelligent Charging, and Energy

Storage Charging

Comparison of Gas Station & Storage Quick Charging

Innovative Business Model

Intelligent Management

Card Payment Sell EV Without

Battery

Lease Battery

Swapping & Charging

Innovative Business ModelEV Industry is Disruptive Industry

By 2020, EVs would be about 7-12% of total volumes, China may reach 15-20%

Global Electric Vehicle Market (Sales): Scenario Analysis, 2008-2015

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Un

it S

hip

me

nts

Optimistic Scenario F&S Scenario Conservative Sceanrio

Scenario's 2008 2009 20152020

(% of total car

sales)

Optimistic Scenario 5,103 17,475 2,266,450 12%

F&S Scenario 5,103 8,911 1,226,607 7%

Conservative Scenario 5,103 7,550 520,953 4%

16

Two routes to millions of EVs?

Today

China, India

Sophisticated consumers

High precision manufacture

Specialist technology

High cost base

New consumers

Access to materials

Low cost technology

Low cost manufacture

100’s of

EVs

100 million

e-bikes

100,000’s of EVs

2020

? millions of

EVs

? millions of

EVs

? millions of e-4 wheelers

Collaborations

Electric Vehicle Roadmap

Public familiarity and acceptance: Formula 3

2010 2012 2016 2020

100s of EVs 100,000+ vehicle fleets??? 10 — 15%

new vehicle sales1st models

available

2nd Gen EVs

‘Real’ electric innovationMass market EVs

Maintain current momentum Real ‘electric innovation’

● Early adopters

● Government

procurement

● ‘Clean Cities’

Current industry

focus

Current

government

focus

● Fleet experience

reliability

driver

response

● Infrastructure

stdn

● Cost reduction

● Acceleration of

consumer interest

and uptake

Phase 1

Recession, EU and US regulations… CO2, energy security……

Phase 2

Page 18 / Patrick Oliva

Worldwide comparison of well to wheel CO2 emissions per km driven with a BEV (15 kWh or 25 kWh/100 km) and ICE

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 50 100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

g CO2 /kWh

g C

O2 /km

Core Technology: Energy Storage & Propulsion

蓄电装置

储氢装置

燃料电池堆电动机

多能源控制器

Technology Roadmap

FCV

E-REV

BEV

BEV———Battery Electric Vehicles

E-REV——Range Extender & Hybrid Electric Vehicles

FCV——Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

Application of Electric Vehicles

Heavy Load

Stop-and-go

Du

ty C

ycle

Drive Cycle

Continuous

Light Load

City Intra-Urban Highway-Cycle Highway

Hybrid Engineering Philosophy: 1+1>2Hybrid Mule = Horse (Mother) + Moke (Father)

Mule is the hybrid of horse and moke, mule takes the best DNA of horse and moke, hence more powerful and endurance.

HEV should have added value gained from the integration of engine propulsion and motor propulsion, fully sizes the intelligent electrical, electronic and control technologies

Hybridization and Fuel Efficiency Potential/

ICE Power

Electric Power

Plug-in

Smart Starter

Fun

ctio

nal

ity/ • Engine start-

stop at idle• Engine off on

deceleration

• Mild regenerative braking

• Electric power assist

• Full regenerative braking

• Engine cycle optimization

• Electric launch

• Limited pure electric drive

• Engine downsize

• Plug-in rechargeable

• More electric drive during charge-depletion

• Reduced refueling

• Full-function electric drive

• Initial pure electric range

• Significantly reduced refueling

• Plug-in recharge only

• 100% pure electric range/100%

• No refueling

FUEL

ECO

NO

MY • +2-4% • +10-20% • +30-50% Cars

• +20-40% Trucks

• +100% in charge depletion/100%

• same as full hybrid afterward

• Electricity only in EV range/在EV

• same as full hybrid afterward

• Electricity only

Start-Stop Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in Range Extender EV/

Electric Vehicle/

Hybrid Vehicle Architecture

ICE

VSI1 EM1

VSI2 EM2

BAT

Trans.

Fuel

R

C

S mechanical link

electrical link

Ring gear

Sun gear

Carrier

R2

R1

R3

R

TR TC

C

S

TS

ICE

VSI1 EM1

VSI2 EM2

BAT

Trans.

Fuel

VSI2 EM2

ICE

VSI1 EM1

BAT Trans. Fuel

VSI2 EM2

ICE

VSI1 EM1

BAT Trans. Fuel

ICE

VSI1 EM1

VSI2 EM2

BAT

Trans.

Fuel

Fig. 1; Series-parallel hybrid Vehicle using a planetary gear unit Fig. 1a; Planetary gear unit

Fig. 2; Series hybrid Vehicle Fig. 3; Parallel hybrid Vehicle

Fig. 4; ICE Vehicle Fig. 5; Battery powered Electric Vehicle

Motor Technology : Two Types of Configurations

Motor : PM Motor or Induction Motor

Straight Type and V-Type IPM Rotor

2010 Prius motor efficiency contour 2000 Prius motor efficiency contour

Efficiency Counters

Temperature Monitoring, Cooling, Fault Tolerance

EVT – Electric Variable Transmission

Ultracapacitor

Short-Period

Energy Source

Flywheel

Electrochemical

Batteries

Rechargeable

Long Period

Energy Source

Gasoline + ICE

Fuel Cell Non-

Rechargeable

Specific Energy (Wh/kg)

Sp

ecif

ic P

ow

er (

W/k

g)

Energy Sources Comparison

Cycle Life > 2000

Cost < RMB 3000 (USD 375)/kWh

Reliability: Volume of million vehicles

Mileage of 150000 km

Comparison of Various Batteries

Circular hollow battery

Plum-shaped hollow battery

Square hollow battery

Cellular hollow battery

Cascadedbattery

Rectangular cascaded battery

Yintong Energy’s Batteries

Cell Manufacturing单体电池的制造工艺

Lithium-ion Battery

Battery Management System – Architecture电池包管理系统

US DOE Program 美国能源部研发项目

Transportation

68.3%

Hybrid and Electric SystemsDAVID HOWELL

Vehicle and Systems Simulation and Testing

LEE SLEZAK

Energy Storage R&D

DAVID HOWELL

Advanced Power Electronics and Electric

Motors R&D

SUSAN ROGERS &

STEVEN BOYD

Complements hardware R&D activities through vehicle simulation and testing

Battery technology R&D for hybrid-electric and plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles

R&D for electric and electronic devices needed for drivetrain electrification

48

Battery R&D Program Activities 美国能源部电池研发项目

AdvancedMaterialsResearch

High Energy & High Power

Cell R&D

Full SystemDevelopment and

Testing

Commercialization

• High energy cathodes

• Alloy, Lithium anodes

• High voltage electrolytes

• Lithium air couples

• High rate electrodes

• High energy couples

• Fabrication of high E cells

• Ultracapacitor carbons

• Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) systems

• 10 and 40 mile Plug-in HEV systems

• Advanced lead acid

• Ultracapacitors

The Energy Storage effort is engage in a wide rage of topics, forum fundamental materials work through battery development and testing

BEV (Global)

1970 20001980

Accumulated Number

1.3million

Exceed BEV

Prius

BEV & HEV Production日本混合动力产业化

50

Japan EV Roadmap

From HEV to PHEV and EV

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Battery capacity

(vs.current level)1 time 3 times

Battery cost 1/2 1/10

●Electric vehicle (EV)

Traveling distance

on a full charge 200 km 500 km

-Improvement of battery performance

Leap in cruising distance

Drastic cost reduction

1.5 times

1 time

7 times

1/7 1/40

130 km

-Development of post-Li ion batteries

●Plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV)

-Improvement of Li ion battery performance

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Battery capacity(vscurrent level) 1 time 3 times

Battery cost 1/2 1/10

●Electric vehicles (EV)

Traveling distance on a full charge

200 km 500 km

-Improvement of battery performance

Leap in driving distanceDrastic cost reduction

1.5 times

1 time

7 times

1/7 1/40

130 km

-Development of post

-Li ion batteries

●Plug- in hybrid vehicles (PHEV)

-Improvement of Li ion battery performance

Japan Recent EV Development

• iMiEVs from Mitsubishi that will be made available in 2010.

• Network of EV charging stations.

• Launch a competitive tende to select an EV infrastructure service provider.

日本的经验：Japan Experience:Alliance between OEM & Battery Manufacturer

ToyotaPanasonic

Nissan

Mitsubishi

Changzhu

Tan

Dalian

Nanchang

Shanghai

Shenzheng

Wuhan

Beijing

Chongqing

Promotion of EV/HEV in 20 Cities

Subsidize Private Buyers in 5 Cities

Presently Over 8000 EVs/HEVs

• Each city over 1000

vehicles within 3 years

• Priority in public

transportation

• Incentives from central

and local governments

• Incubation of demand

and market

Kunming

Jinan

Hangzhou

Changchun

Hefei

54

Shanghai World Expo Demonstration:

Over 1000 BEV/HEV/FCV

1

2

3

4

Buses VIP Vehicles

Mini EVTourist EV

5555

Made in China: Low-speed EVs in ChinaThe Future of EVs?

Chinese Transportation Structure

Structure of Points-lines-Areas

Points—larger city•Public transportation •Private car

Lines—city-city•Railway•Airline•Commercial vehicle

Areas—town•Public transportation•Personal car and E-bike

57

What it is Smart Grid?

It is intelligent

It allows two-way

communication

It allows real-time

monitoring & control

Smart Grid

Source: Altalink, Alberta, Canada

Electric Power & Communication

Infrastructures

Central GeneratingStation

Step-Up Transformer

DistributionSubstation

ReceivingStation

DistributionSubstation

DistributionSubstation

Commercial

Industrial Commercial

Gas Turbine

RecipEngine

Cogeneration

RecipEngine

Fuel cell

Micro-turbine

Flywheel

Residential

Photovoltaics

Batteries

Residential Data

Concentrator

Control Center

Data network Users

2. Information Infrastructure

1.Power Infrastructure

Source: EPRI 59

Stability use for renewable energy by electric vehicle The renewable energy of sunlight, wind, etc. into which the amount of power generation

greatly changes depending on the weather and time is saved in storage battery (LiB) with high efficiency.

Solar power Wind power

※Uncontrollable electric power

Charging / Discharging

Renewable Energy

6 12 18 24

2.5[ｋｗ]

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

Example: Equipment of one house（southeast2.6kW+southwest1.4kW）

Fine

Cloudy

Rain

Source data：the Research Center for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) HP

Battery (LiB)

Smart House

Increasing low carbon electricity and reduce peak electricity consumed Management of electricity storage by EV and/or Lithium ion battery

Solar Cell

SmartMeter

AC

DC

AC

DC

Charge

Back up

Mid-nightelectricity

Grid

Ch

arge

Appliances

Distribute

Converter

EV Battery（LiB）

Buy

Sell

Smart House Smart Community Smart Grid

Self-sufficiency of energy supply

Micro-gridNetwork

Connection to “Grid”

Scenario for introducing Smart Grid

Evolution from “Smart House” to “Smart Community”, “Smart Grid”

Fossil fuel

Renewable energy

EVs would be plugged into home outlet for hours.

High-speed response with synchronization could be realized

by using self-terminal frequency measurement.

Maintaining battery condition and charging request by itself

Autonomous

Distributed V2G

Power Grid

Power Grid

Load

Distributed

Generator

Wind

Photovoltaic

Heat Pump

Water Heater

Ubiquitous Power Grid

Load Dispatching Center

Thermal

Hydro Nuclear

Regional Load

Dispaching Center

Heat Storage

ECU / BMU

Battery

バッテリ

Inverter

Motor

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle

Electric Vehicle

DC-DCConverter

Battery

Wind

Distributed Grid

Microgrid

Battery

Smart Charging

Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G)

Pump Storage

Tie-line

...Centralized control scheme dispatching LFC signals to storage devices

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-0.1

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-0.04

-0.02

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Fre

quency d

evia

tion[H

z]

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-400-300-200-100

0100200300400

Pow

er

[MW

]

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-200-150-100-50

050

100150200

Pow

er

[MW

]

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

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Fre

que

ncy

devia

tion[

Hz]

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0100200300400

Pow

er [

MW

]

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70-200-150-100-50

050

100150200

Pow

er [

MW

]

LFC without V2G LFC with V2G (200[MW]=5[kW]*4e4)

(a) Frequency deviations

(c) Power of system b

(b) Power of system a

V2G works as a spinning reserve faster than thermal power governor.

Quality of frequency is improved, and oscillation is also damped.

Response of thermal power generator become to be dominated by FFC-TBC,

and it is said V2G don’t disturb power grid LFC.

Time [s]

Δfb

Δfa ΔfbΔfa

ThermalThermal

ΔPt

Disturbance

Load

Thermal

Load

V2G

V2G

Thermal

Load

ΔPt

Disturbance

Load

-ΔPt-ΔPt

Time [s]

Time [s]

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Fre

quency d

evia

tion [

Hz]

-6-5-4-3-2-10123456

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

V2G

pow

er

[kW

]

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Batt

ery

SO

C [

%]

+3σ

-3σ

Moving average

Plug-out : 90[%]

Charge energy from 20 to 90[%] 11.59[kWh] (0.97[kW])

Additional cycles for grid V2G+ : 19.63[kWh] (1.64[kW]), V2G- : 7.78[kWh] (0.65[kW])

Time [hour]

Charge

Discharge

Maintaining battery condition and replying charging request…OK

Plug-in : 20[%]

(a) Frequency deviation

(b) V2G power output and battery SOC

7pm 7am

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

(0/0

)

(1.5

/3)

(3/6

)

(6/1

2)

(9/1

8)

Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2

Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2

BESS Capacity (MW/MWhr)

INSTNATANEOUS MAXIMUM

MAXIMUM RUNNING AVERAGE

With no control maximum running average is 0.918 MW and

instantaneous maximum is 6.952 MW

Pow

er (M

W)

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

50

0(1

/1.6

)

10

00

(2/3

.2)

15

00

(3/4

.8)

20

00

(4/6

.4)

25

00

(5/8

)

30

00

(6/9

.6)

Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2

Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2

With no control maximum running average is 0.918 MW and

instantaneous maximum is 6.952 MW

No of vehicles (MW/MWhr)

MAXIMUM RUNNING AVERAGE

INSTNATANEOUS MAXIMUM

Po

wer

(M

W)

Simulation results – Power fluctuation and lost energy

(a-1) Power fluctuations in case BESS (a-2) Power fluctuations in case V2G

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

(0/0

)

(1.5

/3)

(3/6

)

(6/1

2)

(9/1

8)

Wind Pattern 1

Wind Pattern 2

BESS Capacity (MW/MWhr)

Ener

gy (M

Wh

rs)

0.000

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

50

0(1

/1.6

)

10

00

(2/3

.2)

15

00

(3/4

.8)

20

00

(4/6

.4)

25

00

(5/8

)

30

00

(6/9

.6)

Wind Pattern 1

Wind Pattern 2

No of vehicles (MW/MWhr)

En

erg

y (M

Wh

rs)

(b-1) Lost energy of RES in case BESS (b-2) Lost energy of RES in case V2G

ADAPTING: THE NEW ENERGY PARADIGM

Speaker: Professor C.C.ChanDate: January 2010

World Electric Vehicle Association President: Prof. C.C. Chan

Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific (EVAAP)

Electric Drive Transportation Association, USA (EDTA)

European Electric Road Vehicle Association

Chinese Electrotechnical Society (CES)

Society of Automotive Engineering (SAE- China)

www.evs25.org

SUCCESS

SUCCESS

Inspiration

Imagination

Innovation

Integration

Implementation

Investment

Thank you!