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The Outlook for Natural Gas VehiclesThe Outlook for Natural Gas Vehicles
33RD ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF 33RD ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF BLACKS IN THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF BLACKS IN
ENERGYENERGY
May 20, 2010 May 20, 2010 Columbus, OHColumbus, OH
Growth in World NGV MarketGrowth in World NGV Market
• 2003: 2.8 million
• 2007: 7 million
• Today: 11.1 million
Notable NGV GrowthNotable NGV GrowthCountry NGVs 2003 NGVs 2010 Stations '03 Stations ‘10
Pakistan 350,000 2,250,000 200 3,000
Argentina 1,000,000 1,800,000 1000 1,850
Iran * 1,735,000 * 1,080
Brazil 550,000 1,614,000 535 1,770
India 137,000 700,000 116 500
Italy 400,000 588,000 490 730
China 69,300 500,000 270 1,340
Colombia * 300,000 * 485
Global Total 2,814,438 11,110,000 6,455 16,554
International Vehicle AvailabilityInternational Vehicle Availability
• Every major car manufacturer is making natural gas vehicles for some market somewhere:– GM/Opel Chevrolet Ford Mercedes
– Volkswagen Fiat Citroen Hyundai
– Renault Peugeot Tata Mitsubishi
– Toyota Honda Nissan Isuzu
– Skoda Volvo Geely Lifan
• GM alone makes 9 natural gas models
U.S. OverviewU.S. Overview
• Number of vehicles: 120,000 (out of 220 million)
• Total vehicle count has been growing -- but slowly
• Vehicle count masks volume growth since US focus is on urban fleets -- especially, trucks and buses
• 30 percent volume growth in 2007; 25 percent growth in 2008
Achievable NGV Gas Usage and Vehicle Growth
Trucks (Thousands)
Energy Use in On-Road TransportationEnergy Use in On-Road Transportation
• Total energy usage: 22.23 quads or Tcf (2008):– Light-duty: 16.47– Heavy-duty freight: 5.15– Commercial light trucks: 0.62– Buses: 0.27
• About 25-30% of total is diesel:– The majority of MD/HD use is diesel
6.04 Tcf
Target MarketsTarget Markets• Heavy-duty freight trucks:
– Water ports and rail
– “Less-than-Load” (e.g., Yellow-Roadway, Forward Air, Swift)
• Transit buses/shuttle buses/school buses
• Major metro fleet management and public works departments
• Trash, recycling, cement and other vocational work trucks
• Medium-duty delivery and commercial service trucks:– Telecom ─ food ─ beverage ─ snack food ─ newspapers
– linen/laundry ─ grocery ─ furnishings/appliances ─ office products
• Taxis and light-duty service vehicles
We Have the Fuel – And It’s OursWe Have the Fuel – And It’s Ours• Historic barrier to NGV growth: Concern over US gas
supply:– Is supply adequate?
• That concern is now put to rest:– Navigant study– PGC study– EIA projections
• NGVs have the strongest foreign oil displacement message of all alts fuels
Substantial Air Quality: Urban PollutionSubstantial Air Quality: Urban Pollution• NGVs produce less criteria pollutants than gasoline and diesel
vehicles (NOx, CO, VOCs, PM)
• Examples:– First vehicles certified to EPA’s tighter standards:
• Ultra-low emission• Super-ultra low-emission• Tier 2/Bin 2 standards
– Honda Civic GX rated the “Greenest Car in America” by ACEEE – for seven years in a row
(continued)
Substantial Air Quality: Urban PollutionSubstantial Air Quality: Urban Pollution– Majority of light duty NGV models currently available have
been certified to the Federal Tier 2/Bin 2 standard:• Only Bin 1, which requires zero emissions, is more demanding.
– Cummins Westport’s and Emission Solutions’ heavy-duty natural gas engines were the first engines to certify to the full-2010 federal emission
• Air pollution benefits of NGVs are expected to continue to improve as new automotive technologies become available
• EPA’s call to tighten ozone standards will make NGVs even more attractive
Substantial Air Quality: GHGsSubstantial Air Quality: GHGs• NGVs produce less greenhouse gases:
– 22% less than diesel vehicles– 29% less than gasoline vehicles– These are well-to-wheels numbers developed for CARB:
• Include methane
• This is equal or better than some renewable fuels
• Rebuts “you-are-a-fossil fuel” argument
Biomethane Makes GHG Case StrongerBiomethane Makes GHG Case Stronger• Biomethane (renewable natural gas) can be produced
from any organic material:– landfill gas, sewage, animal and crop waste and even energy
crops
• CARB: Biomethane reduces GHG emissions by almost 90 percent
• Blending a little biomethane with natural gas makes further reduces GHG benefits of NGVs
Only Natural Gas Can Displace Only Natural Gas Can Displace DieselDiesel
• Light-duty consumer vehicles use 500 gallons of gasoline per year (12,000 miles x 25 mpg)
• Diesel trucks and buses use much more:– e.g., 18-wheeler: 20,000 gallons (120,000 miles x 6 mpg)
• Trucks and buses use about 25% of on-road fuel:– Equivalent to 4.5 Tcf
(continued)
Only Natural Gas Can Displace Only Natural Gas Can Displace DieselDiesel
• Many options for light-duty vehicles:– e.g., natural gas, ethanol, electricity, plug-hybrids
• Only two available options for diesel trucks and buses: biodiesel and natural gas
• Biodiesel is limited and has small diesel displacement benefits
• That leaves natural gas as only option
(continued)
Only Natural Gas Can Displace Only Natural Gas Can Displace DieselDiesel
“Electrifying the auto fleet, using natural gas for the 18- wheelers and the heavy vehicles as a transition -- then we can get off of all those imported liquid fuels that come from foreign oil and foreign products and solve the security and economic problem and put people to work in the process.”
-- Al Gore at the National Clean Energy Roundtable, Washington, D.C., 02/23/09
NGVs are a Here-and-Now TechnologyNGVs are a Here-and-Now Technology• For the foreseeable future, there is no one, silver-
bullet, panacea technology or alternative fuel that is going to replace petroleum.
(continued)
NGVs are a Here-and-Now TechnologyNGVs are a Here-and-Now Technology• For the foreseeable future, there is no one, silver-
bullet, panacea technology or alternative fuel that is going to replace petroleum.
• We have many options – natural gas, ethanol, methanol, propane, gasoline/diesel hybrids and plug-in hybrids and natural gas hybrids.
(continued)
NGVs are a Here-and-Now TechnologyNGVs are a Here-and-Now Technology• For the foreseeable future, there is no one, silver-
bullet, panacea technology or alternative fuel that is going to replace petroleum.
• We have many options – natural gas, ethanol, methanol, propane, gasoline/diesel hybrids and plug-in hybrids and natural gas hybrids.
• But we don’t have choices. We have to use all available technologies and fuels – and NGVs ARE AVAILABLE NOW.
Government Policymakers are Government Policymakers are (Finally) Recognizing the Value of (Finally) Recognizing the Value of
NGVsNGVs
Federal: Natural Gas CaucusesFederal: Natural Gas Caucuses
• What’s a Congressional Caucus?
• Dozens of such caucuses are in place:– Tourism -- Pro-life -- Steel --Beef– Rural --Taiwan -- Appalachian -- Bourbon
• In 2009, for the first time (ever), natural gas caucuses were established in both Houses:– House: 76 members (29 states)– Senate: 14 members (not yet offcial)
Federal: NGV Incentives LegislationFederal: NGV Incentives Legislation• The “New Alternative Transportation to Give
Americans Solutions” (NAT GAS) Act has been introduced in both Houses of Congress – HR 1835 and S. 1408– Would significantly extend/ expand NGV incentives.
• House: 142 bipartisan co-sponsors
• Senate: 7 bipartisan support:– Majority Leader Harry Reid is an original sponsor.
• California leads the way:– Carl Moyer Program– SCAQMD– LA/LB Ports Program
• Texas TERP Program
• Tax and other incentives:– Utah; NY; Oklahoma; Louisiana; others
State, Regional and Local State, Regional and Local Government SupportGovernment Support
• NGVs always cost more to buy or convert, but …
– They cost much less to operate
• On a life cycle basis, NGV scan save lots of money
Money!!!Money!!!
Refuse TruckRefuse Truck• GVWR: >26,000 lbs.
– Crane Carrier LET, Autocar Xpeditor, Peterbilt LCF 320 , ALF – Condor and Mack TerraPro (all with CWI ISL-G engine); Int’l with ESI 7.6L engine)
• MPG: 2.5 – 3.0 (lots of idle and PTO time)
• Fuel Use: 35-40gge/day; 8500-10,000dge/yr • CNG Premium: $50,000 (before tax credits)
• Fed Tax Credit: $32,000
• Remaining premium (assuming no grant): $18,000
• Simple Payback: 1.3 -1.4yrs• Life-cycle cost savings: $84-100K+! (based on 8-yr life)
Just a 3.3 - 3.9 year payback for tax exempt IF NO TAX CREDIT DISCOUNT is available from dealer
Step VanStep Van• Sample Applications (Bakery/Snack Food, Linen)
• GVWR -14,000-19,500lbs.– Freightliner Custom Chassis MT45 w CWI 5.9 B Gas+
• MPG: 5.0 – 6.5, 75-90mpd x6 dys/wk, 26-28K/yr
• Fuel Use: 13-16DGE/day; 4200-5000GGE/yr • CNG Premium: $28-30,000 (before tax credits)
• Fed Tax Credit: $20,000 (> 14,000#, < 26,000 #)
• Remaining premium (assuming no grant): $9000
• Simple Payback: 1.2 - 1.4 yrs• Life-cycle cost savings: $54-66K !!!
(based on 10 yr life and 1.50 savings/DGE at O&O station )
• We Have the Fuel – And It’s Ours
• Substantial Air Quality: Urban Pollution
• Substantial Air Quality: GHGs
• Biomethane Makes GHG Case Stronger
• Only Natural Gas Can Displace Diesel
• NGVs are a Here-and-Now Technology
• Government Policymakers are (Finally) Recognizing the Value of NGVs
• Money
Why the NGV Market Will GrowWhy the NGV Market Will Grow
Achievable NGV Gas Usage and Vehicle Growth
Trucks (Thousands)
Questions?Questions?
Contact Rich KolodziejContact Rich Kolodziej202.824.7366202.824.7366
[email protected]@ngvamerica.org
www.ngvamerica.org www.ngvamerica.org
The Outlook for Natural Gas VehiclesThe Outlook for Natural Gas Vehicles
33RD ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF 33RD ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF BLACKS IN THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF BLACKS IN
ENERGYENERGY
May 20, 2010 May 20, 2010 Columbus, OHColumbus, OH