TOP TRADE OPPORTUNITIES 2015 DailyFX Research Team feedback@dailyfx.com | www.twitter.com/DailyFX Top Trading Opportunities of 2015The past year was defined by a global capital market that grew increasingly skeptical of the persistent reach for yield and a substantial shift in the ranks for monetary policy. Heading into 2015, speculation over central banks next moves (from more ECB stimulus to the first Fed hike) will find even greater prominence. Meanwhile, another 12 months without a 10 20 percent correction in speculative benchmarks like the S&P 500 is extremely unlikely. Below, the DailyFX Analysts list their top trades with these scenarios in mind. John Kicklighter, Chief Currency StrategistEURUSD | EURCHF The Effectiveness of Stimulus David Rodriguez, Senior Currency Strategist Yen Selling to Extend a Third Year Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist Possible Long Term NZDUSD Double Top and a Long Term EURGBP Support Zone Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist Apparently This Time Is Different Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist EURUSD Fed vs. ECB Policy Divergence to Fuel Deeper Euro Losses Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist GBPJPY- Troubled Waters Ahead But Steady as She Goes Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist The ECBs Monetary Policy Divergence David Song, Currency AnalystEuro Crosses to Target Multi-Year Lows on ECB Easing Cycle David De Ferranti, Currency Analyst Policy Divergence Bets May Remain Supportive For the US Dollar Index In 2015 John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist EURUSD | EURCHF The Effectiveness of Stimulus EURUSD Through the second half of 2014, EURUSD dropped from 1.4000 to well below 1.2500. While this decline encompasses a number of elements, much of the momentum was a side effect of the European Central Banks efforts. Whether you believe their efforts intentionally targeted the exchange rate or are purely focused on ending dis-inflation and recharging stagnant growth, the connection to price is clear. Much of what we have seen from the Euros decline through the end of the year though was in anticipation of a growing ECB balance sheet. That meansthemarkethasalreadyadjustedforthestimulusswelltosomeextent,butafullscaleeffortwilllikely result in a much further decline.

Chart Created by John Kicklighter using Data from Bloomberg and FXCMs Trading Station Theimplementationofafull-scaleQuantitativeEasing(QE)programliketheFedsorBoJscouldhelpdrive EURUSDto thenextphaseofa medium-termbearishtrend.Yet,evenifitlacksasacatalyst,thereisalsothe fallout from a global risk aversion shift that draws speculative capital out of the low-return-high-cost European capital markets and a likely rise in sovereign yields that will revive fiscal concerns. I will watch this fundamental wave build with intentions to short below 1.2200/1.2000 (a zone of support that shapes the floor of a more than decade long wedge formation). EURCHF Through 2015, the European Central Bank will likely leverage the most aggressive expansion of monetary policy accommodation of all the major central banks. That will put pressure on all of its pairings, including EURCHF. However, there is a very important quirk to this pair: the Swiss National Banks primary policy agenda is to keep the exchange rate above 1.2000. Having moved beyond a brief threat posed by the Swiss Gold Referendum vote, the central bank can keep to its policy of buying unlimited currency (largely Euro) to sustain the floor. That effort will likely prevent the exchange rate from dropping below the managed support, but it does little to see the market move higher. I like the long side with a stop 25-50 pips below 1.2000. With the probability of a breakdown diminished by the SNBsvows,therearetwoscenariosthatIamconsidering.Thefirstisthatthegroupdoesnothingmorethan maintain its floor, which means the market could be anchored to 1.2000 for many months much like the period in 2012. I have learned from that last instance (this pair was also one of my top setups for that year) to be patient. Alternatively, theSNB may recognizeit will be fighting a constantuphill battle and adopt additional policy that negates the tension. Negative rates on foreign capital for examplecould divert outflows of Eurozone capital to othercountriesandtake thepressureoff.Ascanbeseen with theSwissLiborratebelow,themarketexpects more moving forward. Chart Created by John Kicklighter using Data from Bloomberg and FXCMs Trading Station David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist Yen Selling Extend a Third Year For the third-consecutive year I believe that selling the Japanese Yen will be one of the top trades of the New Year. I somewhat-jokingly told my colleague Jamie Saettele that I would simply re-submit what I wrote about the USDJPY 12 months ago. I wont actually do that, but the perspective offers context. The first line told the narrative I believe remains central to any long-term Yen forecast:The Government of Japan and the central Bank of Japan (BoJ)showevery intention to continue a weak JapaneseYenpolicy,andthey'reinauniquepositionofhavingplentyofammunitionleftinpotential easing. That sentence could have been written yesterday and remains every bit as true today as it did last year.BoJ officials sent the Yen sharply lower by unexpectedly boosting Quantitative Easing purchases at their October 31meeting,andthecurrentpaceofQEwillboosttheBankofJapansbalancesheettonearly60percentof JapaneseGrossDomesticProductthrough2015.IftheyraiseQEevenfurther,whichIthinkislikely,that percentage grows faster. The US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, by comparison, seem likely to keep their total assets and liabilities to approximately 25 percent of GDP.Last year I likewise emphasized the political threat to the Yen as a key reason it could fall further:Public debt is likewise a major reason that the BoJ and the Japanese Government will keep its finger on the 'trigger' of further easing. Extraordinarily large public debt mean that central bank bond buying will be too difficult to resist. Politicians will keep pressure on the central bank to continue buying [debt]. This fact is still true, and I think economic and fiscal underperformance will put further pressure on politicians.What are the risks? I need to emphasize that, all else remaining equal, I think these factors will send the Yen lower versus the Dollar in 2015. Yet that statement is a bit ridiculous in making forecasts. Market factors and conditions can and do change in an instant, and there are always the unknown-unknown risks (a.k.a. Black Swans) which can change the game entirely. But even foreseeable events could materially change JPY trading dynamics.Majorglobalequityindicescontinuetohitrecord-peaksandencouragerisk-taking.InFXthishasoftenmeant selling JPY to buy higher-yielders, but a flight to safety comparable to what we saw in 2007-2008 would likely force substantial pullbacks in the USDJPY and JPY crosses. I should further emphasize that nothing moves in a straight line, and USDJPY corrections seem especially likely.Yet all else remaining equal I expect the Yen will fall even further versus the US Dollar in 2015. Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist Possible Long Term NZDUSD Double Top and a Long Term EURGBP Support Zone In this space last year, I presented ideas on EURNZD, AUDNZD, USDCAD, USDNOK and crude. EURNZD didnt work and AUDNZD is actually net unchanged on the year (as of December 5th). USDCAD, USDNOK, and crude worked well. The point in referencing last years ideas is twofold; NZD still looks poised to fall apart and the best ideas are the ones that others arent looking at (dont recall many USDNOK bulls and crude bears for example). So, 2 ideas that stick out for 2015 are short NZDUSD and long EURGBP (from lower). NZDUSD Monthly Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT NZDUSD exhibits a possible double top with the 2011 and 2014 highs. A break of .7370 would complete the pattern and yield an objective of .5900, which is in line with the 2004 and 2006 lows. Watch out for .7100-.7200 as support though(1988high,1996high,February2004high,December2005high,March2011low),especiallyinJune (intersection with a slope line). The underside of a broken parallel could come into play as resistance early in the year near .8200. 0.35000.40000.45000.50000.55000.60000.65000.70000.75000.80000.85000.90000.950006/1998 11/2002 10/2004 09/2006 08/2008 07/2010 06/2012 05/2014 04/2016 03/2018 02/20200.000 0.884151.000 0.736952.000 0.58975double top target is in line with2004 and 2006 lows.7370 break confirms double top with 2011 and 2014 higswatch this line for support thoughwatch this one for resistance0.884150.590900.709800.821300.770043040506070FXCM Marketscope 2014 EURGBP Monthly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT EURGBP is interesting from a pure levels perspective. A head and shoulders completed in December 2007. The breakout level from that pattern is .7253. Interestingly, the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the 2000 low is .7259. The decline from the 2008 high would consist of 2 zigzags (7 waves labeled a-b-c-x-a-b-c) at .7345. Basically, were left with .7250-.7350 as a zone that could produce an important low in the cross. Ill note that the line off of the 2000 and 2007 lows (not shown) is at about .7537 in January and increases 11 pips per month.

0.55000.60000.65000.70000.75000.80000.85000.90000.95001.000012/1994 01/2000 12/2001 11/2003 10/2005 09/2007 08/2009 07/2011 06/2013 05/2015 04/20171.000 0.734480.000 0.980390.618 0.725901.000 0.56860SSHhead and shoulders re-test level lines up witha Fibonacci confluence0.787963040506070FXCM Marketscope 2014 Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist Apparently This Time Is Different I like the US Dollar generally and believe that the move that started this year probably has a lot more room to run. That said, I am skeptical that the Buck can continue its advance at the current rate. Aggregate positioning in USD on the IMM recently reached its highest levels ever. Whilethisdataonlycapturesasliverofthemarket,itdoesdoagoodjobofcapturingtheconvictionatthe moment that the USD can only go up. All too predictably I keep reading reasons why these extremes dont matter this time. I dont buy it. Historically in the currency markets when conviction is so high it is precisely the time to start looking to get out or go the other way. A flush out of some sort seems likely to me and probably sooner than later.USD/JPYlooksespeciallyvulnerableinthisregardassentimentrecentlytouchedall-timehighlevelsof optimism.Acontrariansdream.IsuspectUSD/JPYwillsurprisemostoverfirstpartoftheyearbyatleast consolidating and probably weakening into the summer. Around the 3rd quarter USD/JPY should be a buy again. 80.0090.00100.00110.00120.00130.00140.00150.0003/1995 07/1998 11/1999 03/2001 07/2002 11/2003 03/2005 07/2006 11/2007 03/2009 07/2010 11/2011 03/2013 07/2014 11/2015 03/2017 07/20181997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160.382 94.1110.500 99.8430.618 105.5740.786 113.7350.886 118.5920.382 98.3170.500 105.3500.618 112.3830.786 122.3960.886 128.356Monthly0.618 108.2951.618 112.9270.382 103.1890.500 111.6960.618 120.2040.786 132.315FXCM Marketscope 2014121.097 Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist Short EURUSD Fed vs. ECB Policy Divergence to Fuel Deeper Euro Losses Selling the Euro against the US Dollar was my top trade for 2014. I reasoned the Feds move to taper QE3 asset purchases marked a hawkish policy shift while the ECB looked likely to ramp up stimulus as realized and expected Eurozoneinflation readings tumbled. This madefor clear-cut policy divergence that promised to shiftthe yield spread in favor of the greenback, pushing EURUSD downward. The trade worked as expected. Prices found a top at the upper boundary of the multi-year down trend guiding the pair lower since April 2008 and turned downward.More of the same is likely in 2015. While speculation about the timing of the Feds first post-QE interest rate hike will make for volatility, the overall trajectory of FOMC policy seems firmly pointed toward tightening. Meanwhile, a medley of newECB stimulus measuresunveiled in 2014 is floundering, with thecentral banksbalance sheet broadly flat since October. Not surprisingly, ECB officials have taken to hinting the onset of sovereign QE the purchase of government bonds with printed money possibly as soon as the first quarter. Chart Created by Ilya Spivak using FXCMs Trading Station Taken together, this is likely to see the rates spread shift even more dramatically in the Dollars favor and keep EURUSD firmly under pressure. Prices are flirting with support at trend line support set from June 2010, with a breakbelowthisandthe38.2%Fibonacciexpansionat1.2316exposingthenextmajordownsideobjectiveat 1.2140 (50% Fib). Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist GBPJPY- Troubled Waters Ahead But Steady as She Goes Heading into 2014 trade, our focus was on the diverging monetary policy outlooks across the globe with GBPJPY targeted higher while above 147.50-148.50. The pair remained largely range-bound throughout the year before staging a sharp rally in the fourth quarter to achieve our objective target at 184-188.27 in early December trade. The GBPJPYis poised to close 2014 up more than 9%and as we lookahead to 2015, thebroader fundamental picture remains unchanged. Despite the December election, the BoJ may have little choice but to further expand its asset-purchase program as the weakening outlook for the Asia/Pacific region threatens the central banks scope to achieve the 2% inflation target over the policy horizon. However, as BoEGovernor Mark Carney continuesto prepareUKhouseholds & businessesforhigherborrowingcosts,theGBPJPYoutlookremainsunchangedonaccountofthecontinued diverging policy stances. That said, the technical picture looks more precarious as the pair eyes resistance into the close of 2014.

GBPJPY is trading with the confines of a well-defined pitchfork formation off the 2009 low with the median line catching the highs in early 2013. Interestingly enough, price action compromised this threshold on the approach into our objective at 184-188.24. Note that the weekly RSI signature is now coming into the former support trigger and may cap the advance in the medium-term. That said, the breach cannot be confirmed while within this zone and the potential for a near-term correction heading into the start of 2015 is a real threat.Initial support is eyed at the former 2014 opening range highs at the 175-handle which converges with channel support in 1Q of 2015. The outlook remains constructive while above key support at 168.11 170.40 with a move below this region challenging the broader rally off the 2011 lows. Bottom line: looking for a broad pullback in 2015 to offer more favorable long entries with a confirmed breach of the 184-188.27 resistance zone eyes subsequent topside resistance objectives at 199.80 & 208.20. Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist The ECBs Monetary Policy Divergence We enter 2015 on the heels of pivots made by several of the major central banks: the Bank of Englandand the Federal Reserveare discussing rateliftoff timing; while the Bankof Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank are all pushing for more aggressive easing measures. This time is different, however. In years past, promises of pending stimulus had put a halt on the declines seen by the Euro at times (notably in July 2012 when ECB President Draghi made his now (in)famous whatever it takes comment),butthenatureofthecurrentdeclineintheEuroisdifferentthanthosepreviouslycontextis important.EURUSD Now that peripheral sovereign bond yields are already low, so there is no latent risk-relief rally potential. Coupled withplunginginflationexpectations,bytheend of 2014,theECBwaslayingtheground workforapotentially massive balance sheet expansion in 2015. The oft-cited figure, a return to the early-2012 levels, would call for the ECBs balance sheet to balloon by 500 billion to 1 trillion (current size is roughly 2.05 trillion; range for early-2012 was roughly 2.60 to 3.10 trillion). If a wave of stimulus is about to come crashing down on the shores of the Euro-Zone, then the technical structures of two pairs stuck in the ECBs policy divergence vacuum EURGBP and EURUSD could see significantly lower prices over the next 12-months. David Song, Currency AnalystEuro Crosses to Target Multi-Year Lows on ECB Easing Cycle The growing deviation in monetary policy continues to foster a bearish outlook for EUR/GBP and EUR/CAD as the European Central Bank (ECB) struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability. Nevertheless, the Bank of England (BoE) remains on track to raise the benchmark interest rate in 2015 as the central bank anticipates afasterrecoveryintheU.K,whiletheBankofCanada(BoC)maycomeunderincreasedpressuretofurther normalize monetary policy amid the stickiness in price growth. EURGBP Weekly EUR/GBP remains poised for a further decline in 2015 as it preserves the bearish trend carried over from back in 2009.Wewillcontinuetolookforaseriesoflowerhighs&lowsinEUR/GBPasBoEGovernorMarkCarney prepares U.K. household and business for higher borrowing-costs while the ECB keeps the door open for additional monetarysupport. Withthatsaid,EUR/GBPmaymakea moremeaningfulrunatthe 2012low(0.7750)in the year ahead, and we will continue to favor the downside targets in 2015 as the fundamentals and technicals point to a further decline in the exchange rate. EURCAD Daily Aftercarvingahead-and-shoulderstopin 2014,the keyreversalinEUR/CADshouldcontinuetotake shapein 2015 as the Bank of Canada scales back its dovish tone for monetary policy. Indeed, the BoC may follow the Fed andshowagreaterwillingnesstoraisethebenchmarkinterestratenextyearasinflationholdsabovethe2% target, and Governor Stephen Poloz may continue to change his tune over the near to medium-term as the central bankhead seesa broadening recovery in Canada. With that said, wewill continueto look for a series of lower highs & lows in EUR/CAD and favor the downside targets especially as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area remains clouded with high uncertainty. 1.07501.10001.12501.15001.17501.20001.22501.25001.275001/09/2013 02/28 03/25 04/17 05/10 06/04 06/27 07/22 08/14 09/06 10/01 10/24 11/18 12/11 12/28Mar May Jul Sep Nov0.236 1.128370.382 1.115190.500 1.104540.618 1.093880.786 1.078720.382 1.250820.500 1.211100.618 1.171390.786 1.114830.236 1.130870.382 1.109200.500 1.091690.618 1.07418[Template: DavidS]MVA(AUD/NZD.Open,10): 1.10157MVA(AUD/NZD.Close,20): 1.10898MVA(AUD/NZD.Close,50): 1.12679MVA(AUD/NZD.Close,100): 1.13310MVA(AUD/NZD.Close,200): 1.168951.085940305070100RSI(AUD/NZD.Close, 14): 25.65FXCM Marketscope 2013 David De Ferranti, Currency Analyst Policy Divergence Bets May Remain Supportive For The US Dollar Index In 2015 The US Dollar finally blossomed mid-way through 2014 after a lackluster performance during the first half of the year.2015mayyieldfurthergainsforthereservecurrencyastheUSeconomycontinuestoimproveandFed policy normalisation bets strengthen. Leading indicators for the health of the US economy offer encouraging signals for robust economic growth. These includeconsumerconfidencefiguresaswellasmanufacturingandservicessectorsurveydata.Meanwhile, progressintheUSlabourmarkethascontinuedwithaslideintheunemploymentratealongsidehealthyjobs added prints. With maximum employment as one of the Feds core policy objectives a continued improvement in the labour data would support the case for an eventual rate rise from the central bank in 2015.TheprospectofahikebytheFederalReservestandsinstarkcontrasttoexpectationsfromitsmajorpeers. Disinflation in the Eurozone and deteriorating economic data is likely to keep Draghi dovish over the near-term. Similarly, Kuroda remains prepared to enact further stimulus following a slip back into recession for the Japanese economy. Finally softlocal economic data and a refocus for Chinese growth towards consumption, threaten to deter a hike from the RBA and RBNZ. In turn this suggests the prospect of continued gains for the US Dollar index with the potential for the greenback to outperform most significantly against the Euro and Yen. There are several potential downside risks for the USD going into 2015. Chief amongst these is the prospect of a delayedratehikefromtheFederalReserve.USinflationremainssubduedandweakwagegrowthalongside declining energy prices threaten to keep costs contained in the near-term. Further, if asset prices for equities and housing begin to decline, policy makers may be tempted to re-inflate them for fear of the negative ramifications on the broader economy via the wealth effect. Finally, if the recent pick up in implied volatility fails to gain traction a reach for yield could see investors once again turn their gaze outside the US for higher returns.On balance the positives likely outweigh the risk factors and support the prospect of another strong year for the US Dollar Index. 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