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OpenQuake Modeller: A Collec3on of Tools for Developing PSHA Input Models
15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, Portugal, 24th – 28th September 2012
Graeme Weatherill1, Marco Pagani2, Damiano Monelli3
1GEM Model Facility, Pavia, Italy 2GEM Founda3on, Pavia, Italy 3GEM Model Facility, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
Overview
• Development of PSHA models: The need for consistency and transparency
• Catalogue Homogenisa3on Tool (OQ‐EQCATALOG)
• The Modeller’sToolkit (OQ‐MODELLER)
• Challenges and future direc3ons
With thanks to Giuseppe Vallarelli, Luigi Panzeri and the GEM Model Facility IT development team!
The Prac3cal Need for a Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit
• Current status: different soXware languages, different I/O formats, different data requirements.
• Reproducibility? Global consistency and quality control? (Lees, 2012) • Framework to maximise use of available data
• Convenience and compa3bility with the GEM Hazard Engine
Seismogenic Source Model
Ground Mo3on Predic3on Equa3on Strong Mo3on Data SEISMIC HAZARD
ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS TOOLS • Seismicity ‐ Harmonising and processing
earthquake catalogues • Geological ‐ Faults sources and ac3vity rates
calculated from geological data • GeodeLc – Ac3vity rates from geode3c strain
The Theore3cal Need for a Modeller’s Toolkit
Paleoseismic/Long‐Term Geological Slip
Geode3c Strain
Source Geometry [Point| Polyline | Polygon|Surface]
Observed Seismicity [Instrumental + Historical]
Uncertain3es (Aleatory & Epistemic)
Uncertain3es (Aleatory & Epistemic)
Uncertain3es (Aleatory & Epistemic)
Seismogenic Source Model
Integra3ng Ac3ve Faults, Seismicity & Geodesy
1) Faults and uniform area zones
– Beier constraint of G‐R model
– Moment budge6ng: how to distribute ac3vity rates between faults and zones
– Mmax in area zone 2) Faults and smoothed
seismicity – Exclude events on faults
(a priori)? – Adjust of seismicity rate for
cells close to faults (a posteriori)?
Strain Rate: ‐ Constraints on ac3vity/moment
Tools for Preparing Earthquake Catalogues
• Origins and magnitudes in the GEM‐ISC catalogue are the preferred representa3on of the events found in the catalogue!
• Reloca3on and re‐analysis of the magnitudes from waveform data is the op3mum way to homogenise a catalogue.
• Huge investment of effort – results in high completeness magnitudes (M > 5.5 for 1960 – present)
• Seismicity data is available in regions – should be used!
• How to merge and harmonise global/local catalogues
A Toolkit for Merging Global & Regional Catalogues
• Free and Open Source Python Applica3on Programming Interface for homogenisa3on
• “Automa3c” selec3on can be performed by a user‐defined hierarchy • In development: Source code (hips://github.com/gem/oq‐eqcatalogue‐tool)
and documenta3on (hip://docs.openquake.org/eqcatalogue)
INPUT: Mul3ple Catalogues
MERGING: 1. Duplicate Iden3fica3on 2. User‐defined Selec3on (Automa3c and/or judgement‐
based approaches)
MAGNITUDE COMPARISON: 1. Querying & Selec3on 2. Orthogonal Regression 3. Model Firng
MAGNITUDE CONVERSION: 1. Apply conversion models 2. Propagate Uncertainty
... Output Catalogue
OQ‐Modeller: Building Seismogenic Input Models for PSHA
Global Instrumental Catalogue
Metadata
Diffuse seismicity sources Fault sources
... To Modeller’s Toolkit Geology
Global Earthquake History
Analysis Tools: i) Declustering ii) Completeness (Sta6s6cal) iii) Recurrence iv) MMAX (sta6s6cally inferred)
OQ‐Modeller: The Seismicity Analysis Workflow
Command‐Line Modeller’s Toolkit: Current Version
Declustering • Gardner & Knopoff (1974) • Reasenberg (1985) • AFTERAN (Musson, 1999)
Completeness • Stepp (1971) • Assumed MFD
Wiemer & Wyss (2000) Woessner & Wiemer (2005)
• Alborello et al (2001) – in development
Recurrence • Maximum Likelihood • Wiechert (1980) • Kijko & Smit (2012)
Mmax (Instrumental) • Kijko (2004) • Cumula3ve Moment • Open‐Source Python SoXware – Command Line Driven
• Code available from (hip://github.com/gem/oq‐modeller) [bleeding edge version from hip://github.com/g‐weatherill]
• Documenta3on at hip://docs.openquake.org/mtoolkit
OQ‐Modeller: The Geological Analysis Workflow
Ac6ve Faults (output from Faulted Earth Tool or other file
formats)
Ac6vity Rate Calcula6on
Moment Rate
APribute Uncertain6es (e.g. Slip rate, geometry,
regional info)
Global Strain Rate Model
Sampling and Uncertainty Propaga3on
Seismicity Workflows (e.g. Recurrence model,
historical events, airibu3on etc.)
Fault sources
Moving Towards the State‐of‐the‐Art
Fault Geometry: • Alterna3ve representa3ons (sec3ons/segmenta3on)
• Seismogenic Coupling Depth • Area
Fault slip: • Site observa3ons → Segment slip rates
• Aseismic slip • Slip uncertainty distribu3on
Recurrence: • Model Type (Char/G‐R) • Time‐dependence • MMAX (and MMIN)
Fault Source Geometry
Magnitude Frequency
Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis
Uncertainty PropagaLon
OQ‐Modeller: The Geode3c Analysis Workflow
Global Strain Rate Model (Strain vectors on a 0.2°×0.25° grid)
Tectonic Regionalisa6on (Working Group)
Uncertain6es
Geode6c Moment Rate (SHIFT, Bird &
Liu, 2007)
Instrumental Catalogue: 1) Ac3vity rates/
recurrence 2) Seismicity Depth
Distribu3on
Ac6ve Faults (Geological Data)
Diffuse seismicity sources
Fault sources
OpenQuake SoXware: The Scien3fic Architecture Earthquake Catalogue Tool
(oq‐eqcatalogue‐tool)
Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit (oq‐hazard‐modeller)
Faulted Earth Tool
New Hazard Library (nhlib)
Risk Modeller’s Toolkit (oq‐risk‐modeller)
Released/ Imminent Release
Advanced Development (End‐2012)
Early Development (Expected 2013)
Benefit‐Cost Ra6o Calculator
Loss Maps/Curves: i) Classical ii) Event‐Based iii) Scenario
i) Hazard Maps/Curves/UHS ii) Stochas6c Event Sets iii) Disaggrega6on
Socio‐economic Vulnerability Tools
OQ‐Modeller: Direc3ons for the Future
‣ Integra3on of the different “workflows” – expanding the func3onali3es available for comparison of geological seismological and geode3c data
‣ Compa3bility with the tes3ng framework
‣ Integra3on within the OpenQuake architecture and implementa3on as a stand‐alone set of tools
‣ Further implementa3on of scien3fic func3onali3es – guidance from the OpenQuake user comminity