““One Good Turn One Good Turn Deserves Another”: Deserves Another”: Family Policy, Fertility, Family Policy, Fertility, and Ageingand Ageing

Ákos Tárkányi Ákos Tárkányi KÖZPONTI STATISZTIKAI HIVATALNÉPESSÉGTUDOMÁNYI KUTATÓINTÉZET

1149 Budapest, Angol u. 77.Tel.: (36 1) 251 0288, (36 1) 384 3167 Fax: (36 1) 383 3111

CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICEDEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE

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D E M O G R A P H I C

Age pyramid of the population Age pyramid of the population in Hungary, 1995, 2025, 2050in Hungary, 1995, 2025, 2050Baseline variantBaseline variant

1009590

85807570

65605550

45403530

25201510

50

1995 2050 - Baseline variant 2025 - Baseline variant

020000400006000080000100000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000

Males Females

Total fertility rate, 1935Total fertility rate, 1935––19701970

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970

France Britain Italy Switzerland Germany Belgium

Total fertility rate, 19Total fertility rate, 198080––19951995

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

1980 1985 1990 1995

Netherlands

United Kingdom

Switzerland

West Germany, in1995 its territoryDenmark

Belgium

Finnland

Norway

Sweden

Hungarian tHungarian total fertility rate, otal fertility rate, 19191111––20002000

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Child care allowance and child Child care allowance and child care fee as a percentage of the care fee as a percentage of the averageaverage w wage, 1967–1990age, 1967–1990

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

Perc

ent

of t

he a

vera

ge w

age

Child care allowanceChild care fee

The Level of Family Allowance The Level of Family Allowance as Compared to the Average as Compared to the Average Earnings, 1949–1997 (%)Earnings, 1949–1997 (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

Perc

enta

ge o

f th

e av

erag

e ea

rnin

g

For two childrenAverage per familyAverage per child

Source: Sarah J. Jarvis – John Micklewright in: Esély 1994/2;Magyar Statisztikai Évkönyv 1994, 1996; Magyar Statisztikai Zsebkönyv 1997.

Total fertility rate and Total fertility rate and contribution to TFR by birth contribution to TFR by birth orderorder in France in France

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

22.22.42.62.8

3

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

TFR1234

Birth order:

Development of completed Development of completed fertility in female cohorts born fertility in female cohorts born between 1930–1960between 1930–1960

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

1930 1940 1950 1960

HungarySwedenFinland

Development of completed Development of completed fertility in female cohorts born fertility in female cohorts born between 1930–1960between 1930–1960

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

1930 1940 1950 1960

AustriaWest GermanyItaly