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Role of Energy Efficiency for Low Carbon Transformation of India
3rd International Conference of Low Carbon Asia & Beyond1st to 3rd Nov , Bangkok
Subash Dhar, UNEP DTU PartnershipMinal Pathak, Imperial CollegeP R Shukla, Co‐Chair, IPCC, WG III
Contents
• Background and Context• Research questions• Method (Model)• Scenarios• Results (Preliminary)• Key messages.
Energy Efficiency: Global Underpinnings
Double the global rate of improvement in energy
efficiency
SDG 7Affordable and Clean Energy
SDG 13 Take Urgent Action to address climate change
Paris Agreement Limit global warming to 2 deg C
National Energy Efficiency Initiatives
Energy Conservation Act
Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE)
NATIONAL MISSION ON ENHANCED ENERGY EFFICIENCY (NMEEE)
Successful Initiatives• Perform Achieve and Trade Scheme• Market Transformation for Energy Efficiency• Energy Efficiency Financing Platform• Framework for Energy Efficient Economic Development
Ressource consumption and sectoral energy efficiency
Per Capita Consumption in kg (2012)
EnergyIntensity (PJ/MT)
World India World India
Aluminium 8 1.4 16.6 20.9
Cement 520 195 2.72 2.9
Fertilizer 26.1 22.8 28 16.4
Iron and steel 216.6 59.4 18.7 21.4
Significant opportunity for India: Sectoral transformations
Source: Garg, A., Dhar, S., Kankal, B., & Mohan, P. (Eds.). 2017. Good Practice and Success Stories on Energy Efficiency in India. Copenhagen: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency, UNEP DTU Partnership.
Market Transformation through PAT: e.g., Iron & Steel
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5Specific Energy Consumption (toe/ton)
PAT Cycle II - Target
PAT Cycle II - Baseline
PAT Cycle I - Target
PAT Cycle I - Baseline
Source: Garg, A., Dhar, S., Kankal, B., & Mohan, P. (Eds.). 2017. Good Practice and Success Stories on Energy Efficiency in India. Copenhagen: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency, UNEP DTU Partnership.
Research Questions
• What role does EE play under low carbon scenarios for India (2oC stabilisation)?
• How does EI improve under low carbon scenarios?• What is contribution of EE in decarbonisation of Electricity?• How does EE of energy intensive industries improve?• How does EE of transport sector improve?
Model DATABASES
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
el
AIM
Strategic Database
(SDB
)
DATABASESSocio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment
AIM CGE/GCAM
ANSWER‐MARKALModel
Modal Choice ModelEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
el
AIM
(SDB
)(Strategic D
atabase)
• Includes elements from India’s NDCs• Does not include deep climate policies
NDC
• Aligns with global 2 Degrees C temperature stabilization goal• Carbon price aligned to global price trajectory
2 Deg C
• Aligns with global 2 Deg C goal (Same CO2 Budget) + Aggressive Energy Efficiency goals for India
SE4ALL + 2 Degrees C
Scenarios
Scenario Drivers
2010 2030 2050
NDC &2oC Scenario
SE4ALL plus2°C Scenario
NDC & 2oC Scenario
SE4ALL plus2°C Scenario
Population (million) 1206 1476 1434 1620 1509
Households 247 365 356 502 473
GDP (2010 Billion $)* 1397 6489 6002 25664 23007
GDP per capita GDP ($) 1158 4397 4186 15842 15247
Energy Intensity Vs CO2 Intensity at aggregate level
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ener
gy In
tens
ity (t
oe/2
010
mill
ion
US
$)
Ener
gy (m
toe)
NDC 2 °C
SE4ALL plus 2 °C NDC
2 °C SE4ALL plus 2 °C
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO
2 In
tens
ity (t
CO
2/20
10 m
illio
n U
S $)
CO
2(m
illio
n tC
O2)
NDC 2 °C
SE4ALL plus 2 °C NDC
2 °C SE4ALL plus 2 °C
Energy and energy intensity CO2 emissions and emission intensity
Electricity Generation: CO2 Intensity and EE
‐
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 Intensity
(kg CO2/kw
h)
Electricity
Gen
eration (T
wh)
NDC 2oC
SE4ALL plus 2oC NDC
2oC SE4ALL plus 2oC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tran
sformation Efficiency
NDC 2oC SE4ALL plus 2oC
Transformation efficiency for fossil based electricity generation
Electricity generation and CO2 intensity of electricity
Industry : Energy demand and EE improvement
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Ener
gy (m
toe)
NDC 2 °C SE4ALL plus 2 °C
Energy demand from industrial sector Energy Intensity improvement in cement sector
‐
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Scale 2010
= 100
NDC 2oC SE4all plus 2oC
Transport: Energy and EE Improvement
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Energy Dem
and (m
toe)
NDC 2oC SE4ALL plus 2oC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Energy In
tensity
of p
assenger tran
sport 20
10 =
100
NDC 2oC SE4ALL plus 2oC
Energy demand from transport sector Energy Intensity improvement in transport sector
Key Messages / Conclusions
• NDC related actions would meet 33% ‐35% CO2 intensity target for 2030 • Stronger climate mitigation action aligned with global 2oC will improve EE • Sectoral transformations (especially electricity and Transport) offer
significant opportunities for achieving deep cuts• Such deep cuts require both hardware improvements in technology and
soft measures especially in transport and building sector
UNEP DTU Partnershiphttp://www.unepdtu.org/
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