Current gaps in understanding and predicting space weather: An operations

perspective

Bill Murtagh NOAA Space Weather Prediction

Center Boulder, Colorado

SWW 2 May 2017

The Case for a National Space Weather Strategy

• Growing reliance on technology

• Increased understanding of extreme space weather

• Gaps in understanding and prediction of space weather, and the transition of research to operations

• Codify Federal department and agency activities with respect to space weather research, forecasting, and preparedness

National Space Weather Strategy – Structure Strategy articulates six high-level goals

1. Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events 2. Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities 3. Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts 4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of

Impacts on Critical Infrastructure 5. Improve Space-Weather Services

through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting

6. Increase International Cooperation

• Flare forecasts (NOAA R-scale) – Active region development and evolution – Flare prediction

• Proton event warnings (NOAA S-scale) – Occurrence – Onset – Maximum flux and fluence – Spectrum

• Geomagnetic storm forecasts (NOAA G-scale) – Uncertainty in v Bz – Regional specification

Forecast Challenges

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Forecasting Sunspot emergence and evolution

Active Region Development and Flare Forecasting Oct 17, 2003

Very limited capability!!! When and where a sunspot cluster will emerge cannot be predicted Our ability to forecast the occurrence and size of a flare is also very limited

Science challenges

6 Sep 0600UT

Flare Forecasting – The Sun on Sep 06, 2005

The x-ray plot on Sep 07, 2005!

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New York Center - 07Sep05 1800UT: Solar activity severely impacted all HFcomms. Higher frequencies utilized with little effect. 24 aircraft position reports and ATC messages were relayed via sat-voice between 1040Z and 1939Z. Severe operational impact.

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07Sep05 1755UT: SFO sends Solar Flare Activity Advisory of moderate to severe impact to HF comms to airline customers. SFO experiencing extreme HF "white-out" conditions virtually wiping out all Pacific HF. 2220UT: Solar impacts persists, numerous delays in receiving aircraft positon reports and in delivery of ATC [air traffic control] messages to aircraft.

Space Weather Impact – 4 Nov 2015

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“Flights disappeared from radar screens in Swedish air traffic control towers during the blackout, which lasted about an hour”

GOES Proton Flux January 20, 2005

The X7 flare began at 20/0636 UT and peaked at 20/0701 UT. The intense >100 MeV radiation storm peaked at 20/0710 UT. The CME is first seen in LASCO C2 at 20/0654 UT.

Proton event warnings (NOAA S-scale)

At 652 pfu, it was the strongest >100 MeV event of cycle 23

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Jan 2005 Airlines: Several polar flights were routed to the less optimum routes; many altered flight altitudes. Some polar routes were abandoned altogether.

Space: ISS astronauts directed to more protected areas of ISS; numerous spacecraft upsets and safing actions.

January 2014

Sudden onset, hard proton events present a worst-case scenario for manned deep-space missions

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23 Jul 2012

NASA - Hours to 1-day notice needed for onset, peak flux and intensity profile at selected energies • NASA JSC Mission Control: Very important to properly assess radiation dose and dose equivalent impacts

• Over 400 ISS equipment items susceptible to Single Event

Latch-up (it is recommended these be powered down during large proton events)

Airlines – Trigger points of 6, 12, and 18 hours of onset and peak flux (communications problems and a potential radiation hazard for aircrew and passengers at high latitudes) • Used for route selection and management, reducing

exposure, emergency response planning, and other critical decision making processes at the control centers.

Geomagnetic storm forecasts (NOAA G-scale)

• Did a CME occur? • Is it Earth directed? • How fast is CME traveling/when will it impact Earth? • How will the geomagnetic field respond? • What will the local/regional response be?

Solar /Solar Wind

Continuity in Modeling at NOAA – A Sun to Earth Framework

Magnetosphere/ Ionosphere

Ionosphere/ Atmosphere

Earth’s surface

Good progress!!

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• The limited understanding of what the IMF Bz orientation will be at CME impact at Earth is perhaps the most vexing problem forecasters face.

• It presents a serious limitation to modeling and consequently, mid to long range (1-3 day) forecasting.

Understanding and predicting IMF Bz

…and regional specification and prediction!!

“If we provided your company with 12+ hours of high-confidence warning lead time of a K8-K9 storm, what actions could you take?”

• “Adjust the topology of the system. The flow of GIC is highly dependent on the configuration of the system (how the lines are connected, transformers in use, etc). It is possible to adjust topology to reduce GIC flows in critical areas in system.”

• “Delay planned outages of 500 kV lines and 500 kV transformers. NOTE: Short-term notice generally does not allow us to back out of maintenance.”

• “Dedicate resources to prepare for down-power or removing the unit from service until the storm passes.”

“there would be tremendous benefit to know 12 hours in advance of a Kp-8/Kp-9”

• Identify and support research that seek to address targeted operational space-weather needs

• Improve effectiveness and timeliness of the process that transitions research to operations

• Increase engagement with the international community on numerical modeling, and scientific research

Conclusion Efforts underway to identify and direct research effort towards national needs SWAP actions (and a focus of this week’s efforts):