NOAA ESRL Renewable Energy Program Melinda Marquis NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory International Visitor Leadership Program August 30, 2012

NOAA ESRL Renewable Energy Program

Melinda MarquisNOAA Earth System Research LaboratoryInternational Visitor Leadership Program

August 30, 2012

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• Context: Climate change and projected energy demands (global and U.S.)

• Recent integration and optimization studies• Wind Forecasting Improvement Project

(WFIP)

Outline

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Wind and solar energy are key to meeting growing energy demands and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Integrating more wind and solar energy requires more accurate weather forecasts.

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project is designed to improve forecasts of turbine-height winds.

Three Take-Home Messages

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Climate Change

Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

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Observed changes in global average temperature, sea level, and NH snow

cover

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Climate Change — Attribution

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Multi-Model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface

Warming

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Projections of Surface Temperatures

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Projected Energy Demands

U.S. Energy Information Administration. Independent Statistics and Analysis.

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• U.S. electrical energy demand projected to increase ~ 40 % in the next 25 years (EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2012).

• This totals ~ 225 GW of new capacity. • Improved weather forecasts are critical to

integrating weather-driven renewable energy to allow a significant contribution to this demand.

U.S. Energy Demand

Projected energy mix and growth by 2035 in U.S.

U.S. primary energy consumptionquadrillion Btu per year

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012

11Energy Information Administration AEO2012, June 2012

History Projections2010

37%

25%

21%

9%

7%

1%

32%

26%

20%

11%

9%

4%

Shares of total U.S. energy

Nuclear

Oil and other liquids

Liquid biofuelsNatural gas

Coal

Renewables(excluding liquid biofuels)

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Projected Global Energy Demand (2035)

International Energy Outlook 2011: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/

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• Global energy demand is projected • to double from 13 TW in 2001 to 27 TW by

2050, • and to triple to 43 TW by 2100.

• This translates into obtaining 1000 MW (1 GW, the amount produced by an average nuclear or coal power plant) of new energy every single day for the next 40 years. • Is this happening? • Is this possible?

Projected Global Energy Demand (2050)

Lewis and Nocera (2006), PNAS, 103: 15729-15735.Hoffert, M.I., et al. (1998) Nature, 395: 881-884.

China oil demand scenarios based on Japan or S Korea at similar points of development

(Source - Steven Kopits. Douglas-Westwood, energy business consultants)

EIA’s Estimates of Developing Countries’ Future Energy Demands

Could be Low

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Recent integration and optimization studies

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• 20% wind electricity would require about 300 GW of wind generation

• Affordable, accessible wind resources available across the nation

• Cost to integrate wind modest• Raw materials available• Transmission a challenge

20% Wind by 2030 Report

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Annual installed new capacity

The 20% Wind Scenario is not likely to be realized in a business-as-usual future. Achieving this scenario would involve a major national commitment to clean, domestic energy sources with minimal emissions of GHGs and other environmental pollutants.

• High penetrations of wind generation—providing 20% to 30% of the electric energy requirements of Eastern Interconnection—are technically feasible.

• New transmission will be required for all the future wind scenarios in the Eastern Interconnection.

• There are no fundamental technical barriers to integration of 20% wind energy into the grid …

• The 20% Wind Scenario is not likely to be realized in a business-as-usual future. Achieving this scenario would involve a major national commitment to clean, domestic energy sources with minimal emissions of GHGs and other environmental pollutants.

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EWITS

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It is operationally feasible for WestConnect to accommodate 30% wind and 5% solar if:• Substantially increase BA cooperation or consolidation, real or virtual• Increase use of intra-hour scheduling of generation and interchanges• Enable coordinate commitment and economic dispatch of generation

over wider regions• Use forecasts in operations• Increase flexibility of dispatchable generation• Commit additional operating reserves as appropriate• Implement/expand demand response programs• Require wind to provide down reserves

WWSIS

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ESRL Optimization Study

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NREL Renewable Electricity Futures Study

Key Findings:• Renewable electricity generation from technologies that are commercially available

today, in combination with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country.

• Increased electric system flexibility, needed to enable electricity supply-demand balance with high levels of renewable generation, can come from a portfolio of supply- and demand-side options, including flexible conventional generation, grid storage, new transmission, more responsive loads, and changes in power system operations.

• The abundance and diversity of U.S. renewable energy resources can support multiple combinations of renewable technologies that result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use.

• The direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generation is comparable to published cost estimates of other clean energy scenarios. Improvement in the cost and performance of renewable technologies is the most impactful lever for reducing this incremental cost.

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NREL RE Futures Study

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Carbon Dioxide Emissions

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2010

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2050

Improve short-range forecasts (0-6 h) of wind speed, direction, and turbulence at wind turbine hub-height.Deploy a regional network of

upper-air remote sensing observations

Combine this network with industry provided tall-tower and wind turbine nacelle meteorological observations

Assimilate this data into NOAA’s developmental High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) NWP model

Demonstrate that the improved forecasts can reduce the cost of wind energy and make renewable energy profitable 26

Wind Forecast Improvement Project

915 MHz radar profiler 0.1-4km Surface

Flux 10m

449 MHz ¼ scale radar profiler 0.2-8km Sodar

40-200m

Lidar 40-200m

Tower 50-80m

Nacelle anemometers 85m

Preliminary Results from WFIP

Jim Wilczak NOAA

-104 -103 -102 -101 -100 -99 -98 -97 -96 -95 -94 -93 -92 -91

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100 300 500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900

ND

SD

NE

MN

IA

W I

Bismarck

Pierre

Cheyenne

Winnipeg

Fargo

Minneapolis

Duluth

Sioux Falls

LincolnOmaha

Des Moines

Dubuque

Elev. (m)

Ashtabula (I,II)

Langdon (I,II)

Oliver (I,II)

South Dakota

W essington Springs

Story County (I,II)

W ilton (I,II)

Mower CountyEndeavor (I,II)

Lake Benton (II)

Cerro GordoCrystal Lake (I,II,III)

Hancock

Day County

Edgley Basin

Leeds

W atford City

Mobridge

De Smet

Ainsworth Sioux City

St. James

Buffalo

Valley City

Nextera windfarm centroidsSDSU tall towersSurface m et.New Surface fluxNW S NexradNew 915-MHz wind profilersNew 449-MHz wind profilersNew sodarNew lidarExisting 404-MHz wind profilers

Northern Study Area

9 profilers5 sodars1 lidar

Southern Study Area

3 profilers7 sodars

13km Rapid Refresh domain

Current RUC CONUS domain

3km HRRR domain

RUC – older oper model - 13km

Rapid Refresh (RR) – new WRF-based oper model in May 2012 - 13 km

HRRR - Hi-Res Rapid Refresh-Experimental 3km-15h fcst updated every hour- Initialized from RUC/RR

All models re-initialized and run every hour, run to at least 15 hs, 3D var data assimilation

Hourly Updated NOAA NWP

Models

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Hourly observations (stations for raobs/profiles)

# obs N.Amer

Rawinsonde (T,V,RH) 120

Profiler – NOAA Network (V) 21

Profiler – 915 MHz (V, Tv) 25

Radar – VAD (V) 125

Radar reflectivity - CONUS 2km

Lightning (proxy reflectivity) NLDN

Aircraft (V,T) 2-15K

Aircraft - WVSS (RH) 0-800

Aircraft – TAMDAR (V,T,RH) 0-50

Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx)

2200- 2500

Buoys/ships (V, ps) 200-400

Mesonet (T, Td, V, ps) 4500

GOES AMVs (V) 2000- 4000

AMSU/HIRS radiances Used

GOES cloud-top pressure/temp 13km

WindSat scatterometer 2-10K

RUC/Rapid Refresh Hourly assimilation cycle

Cycle hydrometeorsCycle soil temp., moisture, snow

1-hrfcst

1-hrfcst

1-hrfcst

11 12 13Time (UTC)

AnalysisFields

3DVAR

Obs

3DVAR

Obs

Back-groundFields

Sodars

RR with WFIPassimilation

RR no WFIP assimilation

OPERATIONAL (NWS) RESEARCH (ESRL)HRRR (w/ assimilation of WFIP obs)

Rapid Refresh (RR) RR (w/ assimilation of WFIP obs)Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) RUC (w/ assimilation of WFIP obs)

Same grids, same dynamical core, same physical parameterizations Different computers, minor differences in implementation

Model comparisons

• Exercise of opportunity – models are similar but not identical. Not ideal!

• Data Denial Experiment for 30-40 days at end of field program

(Model improvement)

Impact of data on models:Vertically averaged radar wind profiler vector wind RMSE, with and without WFIP special data, RR and RUC models

With WFIP data

With WFIP data

N Study Area, 9 profiler average, 500-2000m

No WFIP data

No WFIP data

The lower the RMSE, the better!

The scores are better (lower) when the WFIP observations are used (red).

Early study results show success.

Model evaluationusing tall towerobservations

RMSE% ImprovementVector wind

Combined

ModelObs

North Domain

South Domain

Combined

Model

Obs

North Domain

South Domain

AWST Truepower AnalysisMAE Power Improvement, October 2011

Southern Study Area

Preliminary Economic Results—Southern Region

• Analyses performed for “shoulder” month – October 2011 when load is low and wind speeds are higher

• Operational Cost Savings are dependent on natural gas prices – average actual price of 3.44 $/MMBtu used for October in Texas

• Preliminary results show both environmental and cost benefits as a result of improved forecasts

WFIP Preliminary Findings

Next StepsRun data denial simulations using identical

modelsDevelop metrics for ramp events

12% - 5% reduction in vector wind RMSE for forecast hours 1-6 for combined effect of new observations and new model.

Preliminary estimates are that approximately 20% - 60% of this improvement is due to new observations, depending on forecast hour and location.

Significant economic and environmental benefits would have occurred with the new forecasts

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Back to where we started …

Photos courtesy of New York Times.

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Wind and solar energy are key to meeting growing energy demands and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Integrating more wind and solar energy requires more accurate weather forecasts.

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project is designed to improve forecasts of turbine-height winds.

Conclusions

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Back-Up Slides

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U.S. Electricity Net Generation

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Net generation for 2006 = 3814 TWhr UCb

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2007, AEO 2008

2.4%2.4%

Next several slides are courtesy of Dr. Chuck Kutscher of the DOE National Renewable Energy Lab

Key results from the AEO2012 Reference case, which assumes current laws remain unchanged

• Projected growth of energy use slows over the projection period reflecting an extended economic recovery and increasing energy efficiency in end-use applications

• Domestic crude oil production increases, reaching levels not experienced since 1994 by 2020

• With modest economic growth, increased efficiency, growing domestic production, and continued adoption of nonpetroleum liquids, net petroleum imports make up a smaller share of total liquids consumption


Projected U.S. Energy Demand (2035)

46U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/chapter_executive_summary.cfm

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Background: Population

http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp2008/peps_documents.htm

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World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011 and surpass 9 billion by 2050.

Most growth will be in developing countries. Population of less developed regions is projected to rise from 5.6 billon in

2009 to 7.9 billion in 2050.

Background: Population

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Background: Projected Energy Demands

EIA International Energy Outlook 2010

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N = global populationGDP/N = globally averaged gross domestic product (GDP)

per capita

/GDP = globally averaged energy intensityEven assuming a decrease in energy intensity, the rate of world energy consumption is projected to double from 13.5 TW in 2001 to 27 TW by 2050 and to triple to 43 TW by 2100.

Lewis and Nocera (2006), PNAS, 103: 15729-15735.Hoffert, M.I., et al. (1998) Nature, 395: 881-884.


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From Lewis and Nocera (2006), PNAS, 103 (43): 15729-15735.


IN

ME

MA

Geographic Location of Selected Applications

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AWS Truepower, LLC, NY

WindLogics, Inc., MN

What is included (and excluded) in developing EIA’s “Reference case” projections?

• Generally assumes current laws and regulations• excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas

legislation and proposed fuel economy standards are not included)

• provisions generally sunset as specified in law (e.g., renewable tax credits expire)

• Some grey areas• adds a premium to the capital cost of CO2-intensive technologies to reflect

current market behavior regarding possible future policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

• assumes implementation of existing regulations that enable the building of new energy infrastructure and resource extraction

• Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected to become commercial over next decade or so

• includes projected technology cost and efficiency improvements, as well as cost reductions linked to cumulative deployment levels

• does not assume revolutionary or breakthrough technologies53

Energy Information Administration AEO2012, June 2012

Major changes in the final AEO2012 Reference case from the early release

• Incorporation of Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) issued by EPA in December, 2011

• Updated historical data and equations in the transportation sector, based on revised data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Federal Highway Administration

• Revised long-term macroeconomic projection based on an updated long term projection from IHS Global Insight, Inc.

• New model for cement production in the industrial sector

• Updated handling of biomass supply


Overview of U.S. energy supply and demand


Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines

index, 2005=1Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

2012


History Projections2010

In the AEO2012 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre-recession levels by 2035

billion metric tons carbon dioxideSource: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

2012


2005 2020 2035

Energy-related CO2 emissions

6.00 5.43 5.76

% change from 2005 - - -9.4% -4.0%

ProjectionsHistory 20102005

In the AEO2012 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre-recession levels by 2035

billion metric tons carbon dioxideSource: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

2012


2010

ProjectionsHistory

Natural gas

Coal

Petroleum

Electric power

2005 2020 2030 2035

Commercial

Transportation

Residential

Industrial

Current U.S. energy consumption is 83% fossil fuels;demand is broadly distributed among the major sectors2010 total U.S. energy use = 98.0 quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2010


Primary energy demand by fuel Primary energy demand by sector

Natural gas25.2%

Coal21.3%

Renewable8.2%

Nuclear8.6% Petroleum

36.7%

Electricity –Residential

15.6%

Residential and Commercial11.2%

Electricity –Commercial

14.3%

Electricity – Industrial10.4% Industrial

20.4%

Transportation28.1%

Documents

NOAA ESRL Renewable Energy Program Melinda Marquis NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory International Visitor Leadership Program August 30, 2012