Upload
physcdisp
View
217
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/8/2019 NNA Spac Details
1/2
The reasons for successful transaction are listed below:
Fundamentally oriented shareholders will vote yes as Navios Acquistion is sponsored by Navios
Holdings and its proven management. The opportunistic purchase of tankers at historically low
price as previous purchaser has backed out of their commitment presenting exceptional
opportunity to scoop away 13 tankers at firesale prices. Following are the other details of this
transaction:
Excellent market opportunity and focused business strategy
Vessel prices near inflation-adjusted historical low
Option to purchase two additional product tankers
Attractive debt financing (73% debt) with favorable interest margin, amortization, and
covenants
No significant near term maturities
Cash of $200MM available for future opportunistic acquisitions
Alignment of Excellent CEO, Angeliki Frangou of Navios Holdings and now NAC will safeguard
NAC shareholders implying downward protection for NAC warrants. Previous experience
expanding NMs operations since 2004 will benefit NAC shareholders with successful
acquisition and prudent deployment of its cash resources.
Navios Holdings and its CEO controlled vehicle willing to buy approximately 25% of IPO shares.
At least 30MM shares will be purchased at liquidation price of $9.91 increasing NAC book value.
Warrants provide new holders with safe leverage play magnifying upside presented by increase
in NAC book value.
NAC warrants at present quote offer a good entry point because,
Warrant Purchase Thesis
The strike price on warrant is $7 before they can be redeemed. They expire worthless in June
2013. At current quote, of $ 1.25,
2)Common liquidation price is $9.91.
3)SPAC deal can close with 39.99% IPO shareholders choosing to liquidate.
4)NM&CEO willing to buy up to 25% ($60M) of IPO-Shares in open market/transactions (andwould vote yes with those shares). This raises liquidation possibility to 65%. There is some more
cash lying around so make it 70% max of IPO shareholders choosing to sell/liquidate. Good
margin of safety. Two IPO shareholders owning roughly 15% of the common also own alot of
warrants making them want the acquisition to go through. They say they may spend more than
60M if needed, this acquisition WILL go through (highly highly likely).
5)If NM&CEO do not spend at least $30M in the above, they will invest $30 in NNA at $9.91 per
share upon consumation (raises book value).
8/8/2019 NNA Spac Details
2/2
6)Book value after the deal will vary from roughly $6.7 to $7.8 depending on how many people
liquidate (6.7 if all 39.99% choose to do so, of course that means really 65% chose it since first
25% liquidation do not impact book value since NM&CEO will buy it). Based upon this I believe
it likely that the book value will be over $7.
7)SPAC is buying product/chemical tankers...Great time to buy it, price has dropped 40%+ from
2008 peaks, at historic lows and equal to prices before 2005. I expect price increases in the next2-3 years raising book value significantly.
8)73% debt, 27% cash payment for ships...4x leverage for good exposure. Very good terms on
financing.
9)Only TWO ships are currently built. Another two would be finished in late 2010, the rest in
late 2011 and 2012. Thus the business would not generate significant cashflow initially. Good
long term-play certaily (Beyond the possibility of short-term gain from warrant price increases).
10) Warrants have a redemption feature (like CCME did). If the common trades above $13.25
for 20-out-of-30-trading-days they can force us to exercise by sending a redemption notice.
11) Acquisition vote to happen in NYC in May 2010.
With the warrants trading at $1, we are paying a bit (10%) above book for entry into thecompany. Given the extremely attractive ship purchase-prices achieved given historical norms,
time premium associated with the warrants (mid 2013 expiration) and industry dynamics
(buying at historical trough -- Current charter rates barely allow break-even for operators)...This
seems like a good long-term play at this current warrant price. I believe there is also a decent
chance the warrants go higher upon the acquisition being approved in two months.
I am not worried about buying into the common via warrants at a price 10-15% above book value
because of the 4x leverage (73% financed, 27% cash). If ship prices go up a measly 3% from the
fantastic purchase-price, i'd be at book value. Keep in mind ship prices would have to go up
55%+ to get back to the 2008 heights, so a 10-15% price recovery in the next 2 years is very
likely. This would put the book value above $10-11 and give very nice returns for the warrants
for a long-term investor.