Nile Briefing

8/6/2019 Nile Briefing

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Can the Nile States Dam Their Way to Cooperation? IRN Backgrounder on the Nile Basin Initiative

by Lori PottingerInternational Rivers Network

Berkeley, Californiawww.irn.org

Email: [email protected]

March 2004

One day, every last drop of water which drains into the whole valley of the Nile shall beequally and amicably divided among the river people, and the Nile itself shall perishgloriously and never reach the sea. - Winston Churchill, 1908

IntroductionThe Nile Basin home to 160 million people in10 countries, four of which are water scarce has for years been a global hotspot for potentialconflict over water resources. Water experts

believe there is not enough water in the river tomeet the various irrigation goals of the Nile

basin nations. In addition to unrealisticambitions for irrigation schemes in the basin,many large hydropower dams also beingconsidered for the Nile. All these competing

projects combined with a dose of climate changecould send the regions already over-tappedwater resources to the brink of disaster, leaveeconomies weaker rather than stronger, and dolittle to reduce ongoing conflict over the Nile.

The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was establishedto address the regions brewing water conflict,as well as reduce poverty and promote economicintegration. The proposed program has many

positive aspects, and has the potential to reducea number of problems in the basin. However, the

NBI is expected to rely quite heavily onconstructing large-scale irrigation andhydropower dams to promote economiccooperation. The worldwide record of largedams, as documented by the World Commissionon Dams (WCD), reveals that poorly plannedlarge dams are as likely to exacerbate problemsof poverty, water inequity and environmentaldegradation, as solve them (see box, page 6).Will the NBI follow the recommendations of theWCD in planning for the basins water and

energy needs? Or will it follow a business asusual approach and build dams out of expediency rather than need?

This paper provides background on the NBI andits emphasis on the development of large damsto foster cooperation.

The River BasinThe 6,700-km-long Nile is the worlds longestriver. The river has two major sources: fromLake Victoria, the White Nile flows throughUganda and into Sudan, where it meets the Blue

Nile at Khartoum, which rises in the Ethiopianhighlands. From the confluence of the White andBlue Nile, the river continues to flow northwardinto arid Egypt and on to the Mediterranean Sea.The Nile Basin covers an area of around threemillion square kilometers, or nearly 10% of thelandmass of the African continent.

The Nile River basin contains all or part of theterritory of ten countries Burundi, DemocraticRepublic of Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia,Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.Violent conflict in and between many of the Nile

basin nations has troubled the region for decades. Four of the Nile countries are amongthe worlds poorest nations. These countrieshave a collective population of approximately300 million (more than half of whom live withinthe river basin proper). Within the next 25 years,the population within the basin is expected to


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Nile Basin Initiative 2 International Rivers Network

double, increasing demand for (and potentialconflict over) water resources.

Egypts Contentious Water TreatyThe Nile Basin states are unique, in that the ariddownstream countries depend on the Nile for virtually all their water needs, while theupstream states have virtually been denied itsuse. The Nile has been the source of muchfriction since a 1959 agreement between Egyptand Sudan, under which Egypt holds the rightsto 87% of the Niles waters, with Sudan holdingthe remaining 13%. The treaty helped smooththe way for Egypt to build the Aswan HighDam, which inundated 6,500 square kilometersin Sudan. The 1959 treaty effectively boughtSudans approval for the dam by greatlyincreasing the amount of water under its control,and allowing it to undertake a series of Niledevelopment projects.

At the time of this agreement, most other Nile basin states were still British colonies and their interests were represented by the colonial

power. Ethiopia where an estimated 85% of the Niles annual discharge originates was not

party to the agreement and has contested it ever since.

Currently, Ethiopia uses only 1% of the rivers

flow, but after years of conflict, it now has the political stability to begin tapping the Nile for irrigation and hydropower. It has begun toupdate a 1964 plan by the US Bureau of Reclamation, which proposed 33 irrigation andhydropower projects for the Blue Nile. Alltogether, the dams and irrigation worksenvisioned under this plan would decrease theflow of the Nile by 4-8 billion cubic meters ayear. 1 In addition, it has been reported thatEthiopia is building numerous small irrigationdams, which combined can also seriously reduce

the rivers flow.

In recent years, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzaniahave also expressed their desire for a moreequitable agreement over use of the Nileswaters, and have even asked for compensationfrom Egypt for its constraints on their development. 2 In 2003, Kenya threatened to pullout of the treaty, which Egypts Minister for

Water Resources and Natural Resources calledan act of war. 3 At this writing, the two nationswere trying to work out their differences.

Despite the obvious inequities, agreement over solutions may be hard to come by. Egypt is anextremely dry place; 86% of its land is classifiedas very arid, and the rest as arid. The nations

population is growing faster than its ability to produce food, and the threat of climate changecould worsen the situation. Pollution is alsolowering the quality of the Niles waters. Givenall these factors, Egypt has aggressively resistedallowing upstream nations to divert more water.In March 2004, it was reported that Egypt isurging thirsty upstream nations to do a better

job of conserving and distributing their ownabundant rains. 4

The Nile Basin InitiativeEstablished in 1999, the Nile Basin Initiative

jointly developed by the World Bank, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), andCanadian International Development Agency(CIDA) was devised to help reduce tensionsand create a framework for equitable sharing andcooperative development of Nile water resources. The NBI also serves as the fundingconduit for financial institutions interested in theregion. At this writing, it had the support of 16

donors, including Canada, Denmark, Finland,Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway,Sweden, the UK, the US, the AfricanDevelopment Bank, FAO, Global EnvironmentFacility (GEF), UNDP and the World Bank,with strong interest from France and theEuropean Union. 5 According to the NBI officialwebsite, the Nile holds significant opportunitiesfor win-win development that could enhancefood production, energy availability,transportation, industrial development,environmental conservation, and other related

development activities in the region.

The NBIs ambitious program includes projectsin fisheries, watershed management,desertification control, flood management,

pollution reduction, water-use efficiency andwaterborne disease control. Such projects havegreat potential to improve cooperation among


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the basin states, as well as improve the lives of the regions residents.

There appears to be equal amounts of hope andskepticism about the NBI effort. In a recentarticle on the NBI, the Kenyan businessmagazine the Financial Standard stated:Despite the optimism and the high level of donor funding, the programme faces major risksranging from conflict, lack of institutional andhuman capacity and commitment of the NileBasin countries. According to the master projectappraisal document, seven of the 10

participating countries are, or have recently been, involved in internal or external conflict Nile Basin countries are currently facing political uncertainty, extreme poverty, andvulnerability to climatic variation, disease, andother painful challenges. Such conditions are notconducive to implementing a complex

programme aimed at building an enablingenvironment on a regional basis.

The NBI is promoting both large-scale irrigationand hydropower plans (including a regionalelectricity grid, or Power Trade Project) as

part of its shared vision. The NBIs Power Trade Project has stated that there is a need for about 12,000 MW of new capacity to beinstalled every five years in the region. The

projects work will include a blue chip study on public-private partnership models for financinghydropower projects. 6 The large-dam industryis gleeful about the prospect of a dam-building

boom on the Nile. There are promising signsthat by mid-decade the Nile Basin Initiativecould provide a launchpad for a multi-billion-dollar raft of projects, states an article inAfrican Energy (October 2003).

The NBI includes regional development programs for the Northern region (called the

NELSAP program), and the Eastern region (theENSAP program). The hydropower program of

NELSAP currently consists of a 80-100 MWhydropower project at Rusumo Falls onRwandas Kagera River, and a ranking andfeasibility study of all hydropower projectslarger than 50 MW proposed for the Northernregion. ENSAPs first project is actually acluster of projects called the Integrated

Development of the Eastern Nile project(IDEN). Hydropower projects under IDENinclude the Baro-Akobo Multipurpose Water Resources Development Sub-Project, and theEastern Nile Power Trade Investment Program.Other projects proposed by member governments for inclusion under IDEN include ahydropower and flood control project in Egypt;45 projects in Ethiopia (including 12hydropower and eight irrigation projects), andsix projects from Sudan (including twohydropower projects).

Numerous other dams on the Nile have been proposed separate from the NBI for example,Ugandas Bujagali and Karuma hydropower dam projects, Ethiopias Tekeze and Geba dams,and Sudans Merowe and Kajbar Dam, to name

just a few. The Ugandan government has statedthat its portion of the Nile has more than 2,000megawatts of potential hydropower capacity,and has expressed great interest in developinghydropower projects both for domestic use andexport. The regions real powerhouse, Ethiopia,has an estimated 45,000 megawatts of economically feasible hydropower potential,according to dam industry journals.

The NBIs proposal for a regional grid throughwhich power from dams can be sold is no doubt

influencing decision-making on some of these projects. But if nations take a unilateralapproach to building dams with the hope of tying into a regional grid, the planning processwill certainly become more complicated. As oneWorld Bank expert on the NBI said, We cannot

pretend this doesnt have an impact. Merowe,for example, would install some 1,000megawatts of regional generation capacity thatwill reduce the need for additional regionalgeneration capacity. However, Ethiopia is also

proceeding with several hydro feasibility studies

with full NBI support.

The World Banks RoleThe World Bank the largest internationallender for water projects is an enthusiastic

backer of the NBI, and is especially interested inits potential for big construction projects such aslarge dams. The Bank has recently renewed itscommitment to large dams, after years of


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declining investment for these oftencontroversial projects. The NBI program is the

perfect opportunity to use regionalcooperation goals as cover to get back into dam

building in a big way.

Notes from a Bank internal meeting on the NBIstate: major opportunities exist for win/wingains from cooperative development. There is avery large potential for hydropower development, which has barely been exploited todate. This is also the case for water storage andirrigation The NBI offers a shared programfor addressing this situation. 7 A Bank

background report on the NBI makes it clear thatthe Bank considers dam-development projectsunder the NBI as a way to restore faith among

borrowing nations that it is willing to buildlarge, controversial projects: World Bank support for developing hydraulic infrastructure(including potentially controversial works suchas dams) and for mobilizing public and privatefinance for this is critical The Banksreputation as a prominent development player,able to engage seriously in truly difficultdevelopment projects, should be upheld. 8

The Bank has publicly promised US$2 billion tofinance projects under the NBI, according to anarticle in the Financial Times .9 The first eight

projects are expected to be rolled out in 2003,according to the Bank, with financing for concrete infrastructure projects beginning inFY 05. 10

The World Bank states that its work on NBIrepresents a demonstration of the water sector strategy in practice with its emphasis on

building high risk/high reward dams. Thestrategy calls on the Bank to supporthydropower ensuring, of course, that this is themost appropriate option and that good

environmental and social practices arefollowed. 11 But the Bank has repeatedlysupported dam projects that are not the bestoption and do not follow good practices. Morerecently, the institution has made it clear it willnot incorporate the recommendations of theWorld Commission on Dams (WCD) into itsown policies. Despite the Banks statedcommitment to follow the strategic priorities

of the WCD, there is concern that the institutionwill continue to overstate the benefits of anddownplay the costs of large dams, and ignore

better alternatives to them.

A recent NGO report on the Banks new highrisk/high reward strategy notes that this shift instrategy compounds the mistakes of the pastwith high costs to the environment and to poor communities. It asks: Who will bear the risksand who is likely to reap the rewards of a high-risk strategy? Typically, such project benefitsaccrue to private investors, equipment suppliers,the state, and in the case of infrastructureservices, to industrial, urban and rich ruralconsumers. The costs are typically borne by

poor rural communities, and most of all byvulnerable groups women, children, landless

peoples and indigenous communities Most of the players involved in World Bank projects areinsured against risks. Poor, project-affected

people, who are the most vulnerable groupsocially and economically, do not receive suchguarantees. 12 It further notes that the high-risk

projects that the Bank has recently promotedresulted in stalemate rather than improvedservice delivery for governments andcommunities. The report calls on the WorldBank to cease funding large dams until itincorporates the WCDs recommendations into

its safeguard policies.

Citizen and NGO Involvement in the NBIThe WCD emphasizes the importance of transparency and public participation throughoutthe decision-making process for water andenergy projects. But the NBI has gotten mixedreviews thus far for its approach to citizen

participation. While it has incorporated conceptsof openness and public participation into itsmandate, citizens and NGOs have not yet beengiven meaningful roles in the process of

deciding how development projects are chosenand how they proceed. Critics of the NBI haveargued that the initiative has been a closed affair in which only the states involved and the WorldBank have had input into decision making,largely ignoring the voices of ordinary peoplewhose livelihoods depend on use of the Nile

basins resources, according to an article by theUN news service IRIN. Elizabeth Birabwa, a


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writer on environmental issues, told IRIN therewas hardly any information flowing between the

NBI secretariat and the media, because thelanguage used by the secretariat was tootechnical and distanced from us. She continued,Few journalists know what is happening as far as the Nile is concerned. If you go there, they

just give you the colonial treaties and somedifficult-to-understand documents. We arehitting a wall. 13

A paper by Ugandan academics, submitted tothe Third World Water Forum in Japan, states,NBI is no doubt a top-down arrangement that is

a partnership between the [East African]governments, donor institutions and thegovernments of the West NBI may be said to

be a conduit for huge infrastructuredevelopments rather than a new strategy indevelopment in the Nile Basin. 14 The paper further states that NGOs [are] being used for window dressing only [in the NBI] What isimportant is the quality of citizen involvement indecision-making, but given the nature andcontent of both NEPAD 15 and NBI, it is clear current development strategies in Africa ingeneral and the Nile Basin in particular areunaccommodative to genuine citizen

A Primer on the WCDExcerpted from Citizens Guide to the World Commission on Dams, published by IRN.What were the WCDs main findings? The WCD found that while dams have made an important and significant contribution to humandevelopment, and benefits derived from them have been considerable in too many cases anunacceptable and often unnecessary price has been paid to secure those benefits, especially insocial and environmental terms, by people displaced, by communities downstream, by taxpayers andby the natural environment. Applying a balance-sheet approach to assess the costs and benefits of large dams that trades off one groups loss with anothers gain is seen as unacceptable, particularlygiven existing commitments to human rights and sustainable development. The WCDs final reportprovides ample evidence that large dams have failed to produce as much electricity, provide as muchwater, or control as much flood damage as their supporters originally predicted. In addition, theseprojects regularly suffer major cost overruns and time delays. Furthermore, the report found that:

Large dams have forced 40-80 million people from their homes and lands, with impactsincluding extreme economic hardship, community disintegration, and an increase in mentaland physical health problems. Indigenous, tribal, and peasant communities have suffereddisproportionately. People living downstream of dams have also suffered from water-bornediseases and the loss of natural resources upon which their livelihoods depended.

Large dams cause great environmental damage, including the extinction of many fish andother aquatic species, huge losses of forest, wetlands and farmland.

The benefits of large dams have largely gone to the rich while the poor have borne the costs.What were the WCDs recommendations? The Commission provides a new framework for decision-making on water and energy projects basedon recognising the rights of, and assessing the risks to, all stakeholders. Those who would beadversely affected should participate in the planning and decision-making process and have a sharein project benefits. The Commissions main recommendations include the following:

- No dam should be built without the demonstrable acceptance of the affected people, andwithout the free, prior and informed consent of affected indigenous and tribal peoples.- Comprehensive and participatory assessments of peoples water and energy needs, anddifferent options for meeting these needs, should be developed before proceeding with anyproject.- Priority should be given to maximising the efficiency of existing water and energy systemsbefore building any new projects.- Periodic participatory reviews should be done for existing dams to assess such issues as damsafety, and possible decommissioning.- Mechanisms should be developed to provide reparations, or retroactive compensation, for those who are suffering from existing dams, and to restore damaged ecosystems.

Visit the WCDs own website for more information: www.dams.org


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participation. The authors recommend arethinking of citizen participation on the NBIand NEPAD so that the citizens for whomdevelopment is said to be done are brought tothe center rather that being pushed to the

periphery of the development process.

Because of such criticism, the IUCN has formeda parallel initiative that it believes will allow

better participation in the NBI process. The NileInternational Discourse Desk 16 is a loosecoalition of non-governmental organizations andcivil society groups, hosted by the IUCN. It has

begun to establish national discourses on the NBI, and has an office in Uganda. It is too earlyto say whether this initiative will be able toovercome the divisions between the govern-mental bodies and multilateral funding agencies

behind the NBI and those citizens in the regionwho wish to be more fully engaged in decision-making about development in the Basin.

Will Dams Lead to Cooperation?While many of the NBI proposals are expectedto truly promote cooperation among the variousstates, building large dams could prove a poor choice for reducing friction, given the currenttensions over the use of the Nile and the natureof the water problems in the region. In fact, if the NBI sets off a poorly planned dam-building

boom, tensions are likely to increase. The NBIfaces many serious water-related issues,including unfair allocation of the Niles waters;the impacts of climate change, water-bornediseases and other health issues; the widespreadlack of access to drinking water, irrigation water and sanitation; flooding, and the over-subscription of the regions rivers by planneddevelopment schemes, to name just a few.Although large dams could possibly improvesome aspects of the regions water situation,they are likely to worsen the most intractable

problems facing the Nile basin. For example,relying on large hydro for more of the regions

power will only increase its vulnerability toclimate change. When a serious drought strikes,a hydro-dependent country has to cope with not

just water shortages and reduced agricultural production, but also cutbacks in industrial outputdue to energy shortages. Already, most of the

NBIs member states are dangerously hydro-dependent, including Burundi (98.4% of itselectricity comes from hydropower), theDemocratic Republic of Congo (99.7%),Ethiopia (94.2%), Kenya (73.9%), Rwanda(97.6%), Sudan (70.6%), Tanzania (86.2%), andUganda (99.6%) 17 Climate change experts

believe that dry parts of Africa will seereductions in precipitation. In the Nile basin,according to the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change, there has been a reduction inrunoff of 20% between 1972 and 1987,corresponding to a general decrease in

precipitation in the tributary basins calculatedIn recent years there have been significantinterruptions in hydropower generation as aresult of severe droughts. 18

The World Bank appears to be convinced thatthe proposed system of linked grids and morehydropower dams will reduce the regions risksin the energy sector. Africa has an extremelyvolatile climate and it needs reliable power,said David Grey, a World Bank water specialistwho is a key player in the Banks work on the

NBI. The Nile [power] pool is thus a survivalrequisite. 19 Ironically, Grey cites the example

of a hydropower project on the Shire River inMalawi, which faces extinction because theriver is drying up, as justification for more

power pooling in Africa, rather than as a reasonto move away from hydropower. While it is truethat linked grids can reduce some risks andallow power-sharing, their effectiveness isreduced if they are accompanied by increasedreliance on hydropower. The fact is thatincreasing hydropower dependency will worsenthe risks of climate change. Hydro-dependentcountries will need serious efforts to improve the

efficiency and diversification of their energysupply, especially by developing new renewablesources not just an interconnected grid.


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Many observers believe the inequity of water allocation in the basin will prove particularlysticky for the NBI. An article published by theUN notes the high stakes involved, and theweakness of the approach being taken by NBI toresolve this contentious issue: It is no secretthat the unwritten but real strategy of NBI is tosecure the consensus of all the riparian countrieson the less controversial issues by postponing

the key but difficult issues of the Nile to a futuredate or for succeeding generations. There is nodisagreement on the fact that the projects under

NBI essentially have confidence-building astheir main objective. Questions, therefore, ariseon whether these confidence-buildingmeasures stand a chance to improve the chronicstate of mutual mistrust and suspicion that havecharacterized the development of the Nile

A Sampling of Dams Proposed for the NileNone of the dams described below are currently part of the official NBI roster of projects, yet they willcertainly have an impact on the health of the Nile and the people who depend upon it impacts that willbe compounded by the additional dams proposed under the NBI. These dams are expected to worsenexisting social and environmental problems in the Nile Basin, undercut the power of the NBI to come upwith sustainable solutions for the regions water and power needs, and increase the regionsvulnerability to climate change.

Sudan: The Sudanese government, with the assistance of China and Arab development banks,is moving forward on two large dams on the Nile to supply electricity to Khartoum. These dams, Kajbar (300 megawatts) and Merowe (1,000 MW), would have serious social, environmental and culturalimpacts. Both projects have reportedly led to human rights abuses of those who speak out against theproject. Merowe will displace approximately 50,000 people, and flood agricultural land and culturalheritage sites. The reservoir is expected to have evaporative losses of approximately 2 BCM/yr. Already,as the resettlement program begins, communities have voiced concerns about poor compensation andresettlement procedures. Kajbar Dam has prompted much protest. The main group representingaffected people, the Nubian Alliance, says the Nubian people have been resettled four times in the 20 th

century, and Kajbar would force them to relocate for a fifth time. Some 60,000 Nubian people live in thearea. Local people have staged rallies and sit-ins and vowed not to leave their lands.

Ethiopia: At 185 meters, the Tekeze Dam, now under construction, would be one of the tallestdams in Africa. It is estimated to cost US$224 million, and will generate 300 megawatts, primarily for export to neighboring countries. The dam is being built by a Chinese construction firm that has beenresponsible for much of the work on Chinas massive Three Gorges Dam. Ethiopia has reportedlyneglected to formally consult with downstream Sudan and Egypt on the scheme, a decision which couldfurther strain relations between the countries.

More generally, the national hydropower agency has stated that Ethiopia has 102 favorablesites for Large Scale Hydropower Development Schemes which it would like to develop. Studies revealthat the Blue Nile has a power potential of 172 billion kilowatt-hours twice the combined nationalhydroelectric output of both Sudan and Egypt. Uganda: The Ugandan government has plans for up to six dams on the White Nile. The mostadvanced is the 200-MW Bujagali Dam, on hold since mid-2002. The project has been marred bycorruption, lack of transparency, and misleading economic analysis by its main sponsor, the WorldBank. At this writing, the government was intent on finding a new investor since the pull-out of the US-based AES. There are better alternatives to this costly dam project, including geothermal (which couldbe developed more cheaply than Bujagali). Local and international groups have been lobbying for a fulland fair review of the various energy options available to Uganda for years. But the projects backer have subverted efforts to analyze non-hydropower options. The World Bank took extraordinary steps tokeep Bujagali on the top of the list: it actually manipulated data to justify Bujagali as the least-costoption for Uganda after its consultants pointed to other projects as cheaper; hired a dam-building firm toproduce an energy alternatives report that analyzed primarily only hydropower projects, and hasconsistently dismissed (without justification) the promising option of geothermal power. The Bank wasalso misleading in its analysis that showed Bujagali as least-cost, and as a result, Uganda will be facedwith $20-40 million in excessive payments each year if the dam moves forward.


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Waters. Would NBI help the riparian Statesaddress the unjust status quo prevailing over the

Nile? More specifically, would Egypt be readyto settle for a lesser flow of the Nile Waters infavour of these being used by countries likeEthiopia? Would Ethiopia be able to pursue itsdevelopment agenda without significantlyreducing the flow of the Nile Waters? 20 If NBIcannot answer these questions in the affirmative,the author states, it could lead to more mistrustand suspicion among the riparian States,frustration on the part of the facilitators, and afull-fledged unilateralism.

If the NBI does lead to fewer, better-planned,more equitable river-development projects thanare currently envisioned, and to intelligentadaptation plans that do not increase theregions vulnerability to climate change, it couldindeed lead to more sustainable use of the Nile.But this seems rather optimistic given the NBIscurrent plans to use large development projectsas incentive to cooperate, its lack of authority to

prevent projects from being developed outsideits auspices, and the top down nature of its

planning process.

Finding the Best OptionComprehensive needs and options assessmentsmay conclude that some new dams are necessary

in the Nile Basin. The key will be to use anopen, transparent, thorough review process asrecommended by the WCD to determine the bestway to meet water and energy needs. The WCDreport notes, Given concerns about a number of

barriers that have led to limited assessment of options in the past, it is not enough simply toidentify the technologies and policies that cansatisfy water and energy needs. It is alsonecessary to identify the obstacles that preventthe more widespread adoption and use of variousoptions.

While the World Bank the NBIs key backer and a major strategic player in the developmentside of its program has professed itsacceptance of the WCDs core values andstrategic priorities, it has indicated it will stayaway from the stricter and more detailed WCDguidelines. While the Bank has begun toacknowledge the importance of options

assessments in planning for water and energy projects a key recommendation of the WCD it has not yet demonstrated that it will actuallyfollow up with comprehensive optionsassessments.

A new World Bank sourcebook on the topic,Stakeholder Involvement in Options Assessment:

Promoting Dialogue in Meeting Water and Energy Needs , states that: all reasonableoptions need to be investigated before a decisionis made to proceed with a dam, and thoselikely to be affected by such decisions should beencouraged to participate actively in the makingof the decisions. The credibility of thesourcebook and the Banks commitment to

participation and transparency is called intoquestion by the inclusion of Ugandas Bujagali

project as a case study representing good participatory options assessment process. Nomention is made of the fact that planning for Bujagali has been mired in corruption, secrecy,repeated attempts by government and WorldBank officials to discredit project critics, and anoptions assessment process which fully reviewedonly large hydro projects and largely ignoredapparently cheaper and quicker to implementoptions such as geothermal power.

A 2002 report on power options for the North

Nile area, prepared for the World Bank 21

, purports to describe how options assessmentscould work for some NBI projects, but clearlyindicates that hydropower is already a favoredchoice for electricity. The NELSAP grid projectis referred to as the Hydropower Developmentand Transmission Interconnection Program.The report notes that The Bank has proposed tothe NELSAP countries that in order tosuccessfully move an investment program of thisnature towards implementation it is necessary tofirst carry out a comprehensive power options

analysis in the NEL-region The analysiswould include a ranking study of a broad set of

power development opportunities such ashydropower development and possiblyalternative energy sources such as small hydro

power plants, geothermal, coal, natural gas,wind, solar, biomass gasification, and fuelcells. The report further indicates that suchoptions assessments can be used to get local


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buy-in on hydropower plans: Regional andnational power development strategies are

particularly important for investors who areconsidering hydropower projects. Investorsfavour low-risk projects, which are not capitalintensive, with short construction times andquick return on investment. In these respects,most hydropower projects are at a disadvantagewhen compared to fossil-fuelled thermal plants,and particularly to gas fired combined cycle

plants. Investors would thus consider hydropower projects only in regions andcountries where there is a power developmentstrategy that strongly supports hydropower development. Such a strategy would have to bedeveloped in concert with industry and civilsociety so that it truly reflects a generalconsensus and avoids the re-questioning of

power generation options at the onset of projects.

A report on the NBIs Power Trade Projectstates that it will undertake a comprehensive

basin-wide power study, which will seek tofollow best practices in options analysis,including extensive stakeholder investment andmulti-criteria options assessments. 22 But again,it is not clear if there will be a sincere effort tofairly evaluate options other than large dams.

The Nile Basin states could take another path,one that would protect the Nile River ecosystemfrom further long-term harm, and provideneeded energy and water supply that is better

protected against the vagaries of climate change.A clear process for evaluating the variousoptions is critical to ensure that decisions arefully informed, fairly reached and balanced bycitizens voices as well as those who hold the

purse-strings.

Alternatives to Dams

The Nile Basin has a number of goodalternatives to large dams for meeting at leastsome of its energy and water needs, and indeed afew countries have already begun to developthem to varying degrees. Alternativetechnologies will be part of the NBIs plans, butthe emphasis on large dams will reduce thefunds available for renewable energy optionsand decentralized, lower-tech solutions to water

supply. The Kenya-based Financial Standard has reported that funding for NBI projects fromEuropean nations will include water harvesting,community-managed irrigation and public-managed irrigation and community land andwater conservation. They will also engage thecommunities in environmental education and

public awareness as well as in wetland and biodiversity conservation. The funds now beingdevoted to all of these programs will be muchless than what it costs to build a single largedam. 23

The region has the potential to meet much moreof its power needs with renewable energy. Egyptis the farthest along in establishing renewablesin its energy mix, and has become the largestwind-generating country in the region. It intendsto install 600 megawatts of wind by 2005. Egyptalso has very high potential for solar power. Thenation already produces domestic solar water heaters, and is considering solar thermal for industrial applications as well, according toEgypts Ministry of Electricity & Energy Newand Renewable Energy Authority. The agencynotes that the potential for grid-connected solar-thermal towers in Egypt is tremendous and far exceeds all practical expectations for implementation. 24 The Authority states that thegovernment hopes to build up to 750MW of

hybrid solar-thermal/fossil fuel power plants bythe year 2010. Egypt also has an energyconservation plan.

Eritrea, too, has very good wind and solar power potential. Uganda has an estimated 450megawatts of geothermal reserves that could

probably be developed more cheaply than largehydropower dams. Kenya is currently generatingabout 60 MW of electricity from its geothermalreserves, and plans to draw another 576 MW by2019. Its geothermal potential is estimated at

2,000-3,000 MW.25

Recently, the head of thenational utility KenGen told the Financial Newsthat it will re-focus on geothermal power as itsleast-cost base load supplier, rather thanhydropower. Ethiopia is thought to have some of the regions best geothermal reserves, whichhave been estimated at 4,000MW. Eritrea andTanzania also have good geothermal reserves.


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most fresh water is used for low-valueagriculture. To ensure that water is used moreefficiently, attention must be focused onreducing subsidies and encouraging newagricultural technologies, such as drip irrigation,and improving municipal water supply systems.To reduce pollution, the reuse of treatedwastewater and drainage water, particularly inagriculture, can release freshwater for humanconsumption. 29

ConclusionThe NBI has an admirable ultimate goal: to

provide a peaceful means to reduce conflict inthe Nile Basin. It certainly will not be anovernight success, and must be given time for its

programs and plans to be fleshed out and tested.But that said, its current direction is of concern.Like its Africa-wide counterpart NEPAD, the

NBI may be trying to accomplish too much,while relying too heavily on luring largedevelopment schemes to the region as a panaceafor entrenched problems such as poverty.

The NBI would have a much greater chance of success if it did not repeat the mistakes of the

past era of unconstrained dam-building, and if,in the end, it left a healthier Nile River and

Nile River communities as a legacy. To lay thegroundwork for such an outcome, the NBI

would benefit from embracing the lessons of theWorld Commission on Dams. As a first step, the

NBI could follow the example of variouscountries (including South Africa) which haveset up inclusive multi-stakeholder processeson the WCD, to discuss how best to incorporate

the findings into planning processes in the basin.Similarly, workshops to explain the WCD would

be useful for the civil society groups involvedwith the IUCN Nile Discourse Desk. Such

programs could take advantage of the Nairobilocation of the Dams and Development Project,a UNEP-sponsored group that is the follow-up

program to the WCD.

By taking these steps before making concrete plans to build numerous dams on the Nile, the NBI is more likely to find true win/winsolutions to some of the seemingly intractable

problems affecting the people of the Nile.

CONTACTSThe Nile Basin Initiative SecretariatP.O.Box 192EntebbeUgandaPhone: +256 (41) 321 329 / 321 424Fax: +256 (41) 320 971E-mail: [email protected]://www.nilebasin.org/

Nile Basin Discourse Desk Circular Road Plot 56P.O.Box. 852Entebbe, Uganda

Phone:- +256 (0)41 322 433Fax:- +256 (0)41 322 432Email: f [email protected]: http://www.nilediscourse.org/desk.htm

1 Pillar of Sand: Can the Irrigation Miracle Last?by Sandra Postel. WW Norton and Co., 1999.2 Colonial-era agreements outdated,http://www.scienceinafrica.co.za/2003/may/nile.htm)3 Egypt Talks Tough Over Nile Treaty, The EastAfrican Standard (Nairobi)December 12, 20034 Egypt urges upstream Nile countries toconserve water, March 17, 2004, SABC News5 Notes from a meeting of the World Bank Boardof Executive Directors, March 4, 2003.6 seehttp://www.nilebasin.org/Documents/Documents/svp_power.pdf

7 Notes from a meeting of the World Bank Boardof Executive Directors, March 4, 2003.8 The Nile Basin Initiative: Sharing the Benefitsof Cooperation on International Waters: Note for Executive Directors, Feb. 20039 Nile Nations Funded to Aid Water Sharing,

The Financial Times, by Warren Giles, 3 July200110 Notes from a meeting of the World Bank Boardof Executive Directors, March 4, 2003.11 World Bank Water Strategy Is Reactionary,Dishonest And Cynical, IRN, 27 Feb. 2003.http://www.irn.org/programs/finance/index.asp?id=030228.pr.html12 Gambling with Peoples Lives: What the WorldBanks New High-Risk/High-Reward StrategyMeans for the Poor and the Environment, by


12/12

Environmental Defense, Friends of the Earth andIRN, 2003.13 Ordinary people ignored,http://www.scienceinafrica.co.za/2003/may/nile.htm)14 NGO-nising The Nile Basin Initiative: A MythOr Reality? by F.C. Oweyegha-Afunaduula,Isaac Afunaduula and Mahiri Balunywa (all withMakarere University), Kampala, Uganda, 200315 NEPAD is the New Partnership for AfricasDevelopment, an Africa-wide development effortthat is also targeting rivers for large dams, andthe interconnection of electricity supplies.16 See http://www.nilediscourse.org/desk.htm17 Africas International Rivers: An economicperspective, by David Grey and Claudia Sadoff,The World Bank (2002).18 Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation andVulnerability,http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/384.htm19 Nile Basin Initiative promotes idea whose timehas come, African Energy, Oct. 2003.20 Cooperating on the Nile: Not a Zero-sumGame, by Seifeselassie Lemma.http://www.un.org/Pubs/chronicle/2001/issue3/0103p65.html21 NELSAP Power Options Analysis, byDominique Egre, Canada, May 2002. Preparedfor The World Bank. See: www.nilebasin.org/nelsap/documents/0205%20Report_Options_ Asst_Concept_Note.pdf 22 Project document, page 16, seehttp://www.nilebasin.org/Documents/Documents/svp_power.pdf 23 The Financial Standard, Oct. 14-20, 2003. Thearticle notes that these first programs, whichinclude a regional environmental action plan, NileBasin Regional Power Trade plan, and water efficiency programs, are estimated to costUS$131 million.24 http://www.nrea.gov.eg/solar_energy.htm25 Proceedings, Geothermal Energy Conference,April 2003, Kenya and Uganda.26 See Harvesting Rain, Transforming Lives, byPatrick McCully, World Rivers Review, Dec.2002.27 Hope in a Time of Drought, BBC, 2003,http://www.developments.org.uk/data/issue21/drought.htm28

http://www.nrea.gov.eg/solar_energy.htm2929 1996 World Bank press release, seehttp://usembassy-israel.org.il/publish/press/worldbnk/archive/march/wb1_3-20.htm