12
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research Result Update July 24, 2019 CMP: | 1342 Target: | 1345 ( 0%) Target Period: 12 months NIIT Technologies (NIITEC) HOLD Healthy performance… NIIT Technologies reported a healthy performance with revenue, margins above our estimates. US$ revenues grew 0.4% QoQ to $138.5 million (vs. our expectation of $135.4 million) while EBITDA margins ex one-off came in at 16.9% (vs. our estimate of 15.5%). Revenue growth was led by growth in insurance (4% QoQ) and transportation vertical (4.1% QoQ). Further, digital (34% of revenues) growth of 13.8% QoQ, 40.3% YoY supported revenue growth. Going forward, based on order book momentum, healthy deal pipeline, Wishworks acquisition, we expect revenue growth of 11.4% CAGR in FY19-21E to surpass growth in most mid-tiers. Expect double digit revenue growth in FY19-21E Going by the commentary, the company’s top five clients are facing some headwinds on account of softness in BFS space (largely in capital markets). This is reflected in top five clients, which declined 6.5% QoQ in the quarter. On the positive side, insurance and travel vertical are doing well on the back of deal wins. Further, order intake has been consistently showing healthy position. Order intake grew 3% sequentially to $175 million implying book to bill ratio of 1.26x. On the deal front, the company won three deals of US$10 million+ each with two in insurance space and one in travel space. From the year perspective, the company expects to maintain healthy revenue growth in FY20E mainly led by healthy deal pipeline, hiring of lateral leadership in the last quarter and new logo acquisitions. We incorporate Wishworks acquisition into our estimates. This has led to upwards revision in FY20E revenue growth estimates. Better-than-expected margins excluding one-off Wage hike and visa cost impacted EBITDA margins by 240 bps and 90 bps, respectively. This was partially offset by positive impact of 90 bps due to Ind-As 116 and 120 bps up-tick in utilisation. One time impact of 240 bps on account of ex-gratia payouts and M&A related charges led to reported margins of 14.4%. Excluding this one-off, EBITDA margins for the quarter were at 16.9%. The company aims to achieve EBITDA margin of 18% for FY20E although it did not provide the respective guidance for the same. We believe the company will be able to achieve the target mark led by revenue growth, high margin digital segments and benefit of Ind-As 116. Hence, we expect EBITDA margin of 18%, 18.2% in FY20E and FY21E, respectively. Valuation & Outlook We like NIIT Tech based on digital revenue trajectory, healthy deal wins and better growth profile than peers. However, near term concerns in top five clients on account of softness in BFS vertical prompt us to maintain our HOLD recommendation with a revised target price of | 1345 per share (PE of 16x on FY21E EPS). Key Financial Summary Financials FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR (FY19-21E) Net Sales 2,802 2,991 3,676 4,117 4,587 11.7% EBITDA 485 501 645 741 835 13.8% EBITDA Margins (%) 17.3 16.8 17.6 18.0 18.2 Net Profit 228 280 398 462 515 13.8% EPS (|) 40.8 45.6 65.7 74.3 83.9 P/E 32.6 29.4 20.1 18.3 16.0 RoNW (%) 14.8 15.8 19.9 19.8 19.7 RoCE (%) 18.7 19.4 24.2 23.5 23.8 *P&L actual, BS, CF calculated; Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Particulars Particular Amount Market Capitalization (| Crore) 8,125.5 Total Debt (| Crore) 6.4 Cash & Investments (| Crore) 410.8 EV (| Crore) 7,721.1 52 week H/L 1425 / 1031 Equity capital 61.2 Face value 10.0 Key Highlights Order intake grew 3% QoQ to $175 million implying book to bill ratio of 1.26x. Executable order book over next 12 months grew 1.3% sequentially to US$395 million Better-than-expected EBITDA margin Maintain HOLD recommendation with revised target price of | 1345 Research Analyst Devang Bhatt [email protected] Deepti Tayal [email protected]

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Page 1: NIIT Technologies NIITEC)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_NIITTech_Q1FY... · 2019-07-26 · believe the company will be able to achieve the target mark led by revenue growth,

ICIC

I S

ecurit

ies –

Retail E

quit

y R

esearch

Result

Update

July 24, 2019

CMP: | 1342 Target: | 1345 ( 0%) Target Period: 12 months

NIIT Technologies (NIITEC)

HOLD

Healthy performance…

NIIT Technologies reported a healthy performance with revenue, margins

above our estimates. US$ revenues grew 0.4% QoQ to $138.5 million (vs.

our expectation of $135.4 million) while EBITDA margins ex one-off came in

at 16.9% (vs. our estimate of 15.5%). Revenue growth was led by growth in

insurance (4% QoQ) and transportation vertical (4.1% QoQ). Further, digital

(34% of revenues) growth of 13.8% QoQ, 40.3% YoY supported revenue

growth. Going forward, based on order book momentum, healthy deal

pipeline, Wishworks acquisition, we expect revenue growth of 11.4% CAGR

in FY19-21E to surpass growth in most mid-tiers.

Expect double digit revenue growth in FY19-21E

Going by the commentary, the company’s top five clients are facing some

headwinds on account of softness in BFS space (largely in capital markets).

This is reflected in top five clients, which declined 6.5% QoQ in the quarter.

On the positive side, insurance and travel vertical are doing well on the back

of deal wins. Further, order intake has been consistently showing healthy

position. Order intake grew 3% sequentially to $175 million implying book

to bill ratio of 1.26x. On the deal front, the company won three deals of

US$10 million+ each with two in insurance space and one in travel space.

From the year perspective, the company expects to maintain healthy

revenue growth in FY20E mainly led by healthy deal pipeline, hiring of lateral

leadership in the last quarter and new logo acquisitions. We incorporate

Wishworks acquisition into our estimates. This has led to upwards revision

in FY20E revenue growth estimates.

Better-than-expected margins excluding one-off

Wage hike and visa cost impacted EBITDA margins by 240 bps and 90 bps,

respectively. This was partially offset by positive impact of 90 bps due to

Ind-As 116 and 120 bps up-tick in utilisation. One time impact of 240 bps on

account of ex-gratia payouts and M&A related charges led to reported

margins of 14.4%. Excluding this one-off, EBITDA margins for the quarter

were at 16.9%. The company aims to achieve EBITDA margin of 18% for

FY20E although it did not provide the respective guidance for the same. We

believe the company will be able to achieve the target mark led by revenue

growth, high margin digital segments and benefit of Ind-As 116. Hence, we

expect EBITDA margin of 18%, 18.2% in FY20E and FY21E, respectively.

Valuation & Outlook

We like NIIT Tech based on digital revenue trajectory, healthy deal wins and

better growth profile than peers. However, near term concerns in top five

clients on account of softness in BFS vertical prompt us to maintain our

HOLD recommendation with a revised target price of | 1345 per share (PE

of 16x on FY21E EPS).

Key Financial Summary

s\

Financials FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR (FY19-21E)

Net Sales 2,802 2,991 3,676 4,117 4,587 11.7%

EBITDA 485 501 645 741 835 13.8%

EBITDA Margins (%) 17.3 16.8 17.6 18.0 18.2

Net Profit 228 280 398 462 515 13.8%

EPS (|) 40.8 45.6 65.7 74.3 83.9

P/E 32.6 29.4 20.1 18.3 16.0

RoNW (%) 14.8 15.8 19.9 19.8 19.7

RoCE (%) 18.7 19.4 24.2 23.5 23.8

*P&L actual, BS, CF calculated; Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Particulars

Particular Amount

Market Capitalization (| Crore) 8,125.5

Total Debt (| Crore) 6.4

Cash & Investments (| Crore) 410.8

EV (| Crore) 7,721.1

52 week H/L 1425 / 1031

Equity capital 61.2

Face value 10.0

Key Highlights

Order intake grew 3% QoQ to $175

million implying book to bill ratio of

1.26x. Executable order book over

next 12 months grew 1.3%

sequentially to US$395 million

Better-than-expected EBITDA margin

Maintain HOLD recommendation

with revised target price of | 1345

Research Analyst

Devang Bhatt

[email protected]

Deepti Tayal

[email protected]

Page 2: NIIT Technologies NIITEC)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_NIITTech_Q1FY... · 2019-07-26 · believe the company will be able to achieve the target mark led by revenue growth,

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2

ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | NIIT Technologies

Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis

Q1FY20 Q1FY20E Q1FY19 YoY (%) Q4FY19QoQ (%) Comments

Revenue 962.7 941.6 824.9 16.7 972.2 -1.0

Dollar revenue growth led by healthy growth in insurance and

transportation vertical. Further, digital (34% of revenues)

supported revenue growth

Employee expenses 637.4 630.8 543.7 17.2 629.3 1.3

Gross Margin 325.3 310.7 281.2 15.7 342.9 -5.1

Gross margin (%) 33.8 33.0 34.1 -30 bps 35.3 -148 bps

SG&A expenses 186.4 164.8 150.5 23.9 172.2 8.2

EBITDA 138.9 145.9 130.7 6.3 170.7 -18.6

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.4 15.5 15.8 -142 bps 17.6 -313 bpsAdjusting for one-off, EBITDA margin came in at 16.9%, better

than our expectation

Depreciation & amortisation 40.1 29.2 31.2 28.5 30.3 32.3

EBIT 98.8 116.8 99.5 -0.7 140.4 -29.6

EBIT Margin (%) 10.3 12.4 12.1 -180 bps 14.4 -418 bps

Other income (less interest) 17.2 10.1 20.9 -17.7 4.7 266.0

PBT 121.7 126.9 120.4 1.1 139.5 -12.8

Tax paid 31.8 31.1 30.0 6.0 29.6 7.4

PAT 87.7 91.4 85.8 2.2 105.5 -16.9

Key Metrics

Closing employees 10,297 10,200 9,764 5.5 10,263 0.3

Addition of 275 employees on account of Wishworks

acquisition and reduction of 363 employees due to GIS

business disinvestment

Attrition (%) 12.9 11.7 10.1 280 bps 12.2 70 bps

Overall utilisation (%) 80.5 80.0 80.1 40 bps 79.3 120 bps

Average $/| 69.5 69.5 66.4 4.7 70.5 -1.4

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 2: Change in estimates

FY19 Comments

(| Crore) Current Old New % Change Old New % Change

Revenue 3,676 4,089 4,117 0.7 4,554 4,587 0.7Revision of FY20E revenue estimates taking into

account impact of Whishworks acquisition

EBITDA 645 720 741 3.0 811 835 3.0

EBITDA Margin (%) 17.6 17.6 18.0 37 bps 17.8 18.2 37 bpsRevision in revenue growth estimates and Ind-As

116 leads to change in margin estimates

PAT 403 467 456 -2.4 535 515 -3.7

EPS (|) 65.7 76.1 74.3 -2.4 87.2 83.9 -3.7

FY21EFY20E

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3

ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | NIIT Technologies

Conference Call Highlights

Revenue outlook – As anticipated, divestment of GIS business (~4%

of revenue) impacted revenue growth but was partly aided by 15-16

days acquisition consolidation of Wishworks (| 10.8 crore). Further,

the said acquisition would lead to incremental contribution for 2.5

months in Q2FY20E

Margin trajectory – The company aims to achieve EBITDA margin of

18% for FY20E although it did not provide the respective guidance

for the same. Divestment of high margin GIS business would be

offset by Wishworks acquisition, which has similar margin profile

(EBITDA margin of 21%)

Vertical wise commentary – The company indicated that BFS growth

was muted in the quarter due to weakness in capital markets

segment. The same is reflected in top five client’s decline. On the

other hand, travel & transport and insurance are doing better on the

back of deal wins. The same is reflected in growth in EMEA region.

The company’s verticals (insurance, travel) are still not impacted by

the ongoing Brexit related issues

Digital business - Digital business now contributing 34% to revenues

grew 13.8% QoQ and strong 40.3% YoY in this quarter. The

acquisition of Whishworks will also augment the company’s digital

revenues

Improving deal wins – The company’s order intake has been

consistently showing a healthy position. Order intake grew 3%

sequentially to $175 million while the executable order book over

the next 12 months grew 1.3% sequentially to US$395 million. The

company added 11 new customers of which five were from the US,

three from RoW and Europe each. The company won three deals of

US$10 million+ each with two in insurance space and one in travel

space

Client position – The company added 11 new clients in the quarter.

In terms of client metrics, the client size increased by one to 91.

Revenues from top five customers (27% of revenues) declined 6.5%

QoQ mainly on account of softness in BFS space within this client

category. Top 6-10 customers (39% of revenues) was up 0.4%

sequentially

Employee update - Employee strength was at 10,297 with net

addition of 34 employees in the quarter. This includes addition of

275 employees from Wishworks and reduction of 363 employees

due to GIS divestment business. Attrition rate increased 70 bps QoQ

to 12.9% in the quarter while utilisation increased 120 bps

sequentially to 80.5%

Page 4: NIIT Technologies NIITEC)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_NIITTech_Q1FY... · 2019-07-26 · believe the company will be able to achieve the target mark led by revenue growth,

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4

ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | NIIT Technologies

Key Metrics

Exhibit 3: Geography-wise split up

Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20

Revenue by geography (%)

America 48.0 50.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0

EMEA 32.0 32.0 34.0 33.0 33.0 35.0

RoW 20.0 18.0 17.0 18.0 18.0 16.0

Growth QoQ (%)

America 0.5 6.0 3.2 3.0 2.3 0.4

EMEA 11.7 1.7 11.9 0.0 2.3 6.5

RoW 4.7 -8.4 -0.5 9.1 2.3 -10.8

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 4: Vertical wise split up

Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20

Revenue by verticals (%)

Banking & financial services 16.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 16.0 16.0

Insurance 28.0 29.0 29.0 30.0 28.0 29.0

Transport 26.0 27.0 27.0 26.0 27.0 28.0

Others 30.0 28.0 28.0 29.0 29.0 27.0

Growth QoQ (%)

Banking & financial services -1.4 8.1 -0.9 -3.4 9.1 0.4

Insurance 12.8 5.4 5.3 6.6 -4.5 4.0

Transport 0.9 5.7 5.3 -0.8 6.2 4.1

Others 4.7 -5.0 5.3 6.7 2.3 -6.5

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 5: Service-wise split up

Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20

Revenue by service mix (%)

SI & PI 4.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.0

IP Assets 7.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 6.0

Managed Services 19.0 19.0 18.0 18.0 17.0 17.0

Application Development & Management 66.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 70.0 72.0

BPO 4.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0

Growth QoQ (%)

SI & PI -16.2 -23.7 40.4 3.0 2.3 -74.9

IP Assets 4.7 1.7 -9.7 3.0 -14.7 20.5

Managed Services 4.7 1.7 -0.2 3.0 -3.4 0.4

Application Development & Management 6.3 4.8 5.3 3.0 5.3 3.3

BPO 4.7 -23.7 40.4 3.0 2.3 0.4

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Growth in EMEA due to growth in insurance, travel

verticals and supported by ~15 days contribution

from Wishworks acquisition. Decline in RoW mainly

due to divestment of GIS business

Decline in others business due to divestment of GIS

business

Decline in SI & PI business due to divestment of GIS

business

Page 5: NIIT Technologies NIITEC)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_NIITTech_Q1FY... · 2019-07-26 · believe the company will be able to achieve the target mark led by revenue growth,

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5

ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | NIIT Technologies

Exhibit 6: Client & human resource matrix es

Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20

Client metrics

Between 1 to 5 million 60 63 63 62 66 66

Between 5 to 10 million 13 14 18 20 16 17

Above 10 million 7 7 7 8 8 8

Headcount, Utilization, Attrition

Total Employees 9,423 9,764 10,025 10,144 10,263 10,297

Utilization 79.5 80.1 80.4 79 79.3 80.5

Attrition 10.5 10.1 10.8 11.7 12.2 12.9

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Increase of one client in $5-10 million category. Total

11 new clients added in the quarter

Page 6: NIIT Technologies NIITEC)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_NIITTech_Q1FY... · 2019-07-26 · believe the company will be able to achieve the target mark led by revenue growth,

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6

ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | NIIT Technologies

Financial story in charts

Exhibit 7: Digital contribution as percentage of overall revenue continues to inch up

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 8: Dollar revenues may grow at 11.4% CAGR in FY19-21E

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 9: Change in margin estimates for FY20E and FY21E

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

18.0%19.0% 19.0%

21.0% 21.0%

23.0%

25.0%26.0%

27.0%28.0%

29.0%30.0%

34.0%

10.0%8.8%

-0.4%

18.9%

-0.6%

14.0%

11.0%

8.9%

5.7%

9.2%

6.7%5.8%

13.8%

-2.0%

8.0%

18.0%

28.0%

Q1FY17

Q2FY17

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

%

Digital as a % of revenue Growth, QoQ

388 411416

464

124 131 135 138

528

139

588

655

1.1

6.0

1.3

11.3

13.114.1

15.6

12.913.9

11.4 11.4 11.4

0

5

10

15

20

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

FY19

Q1FY20

FY20E

FY21E

%$ million

Dollar revenue Growth, YoY

14.6

17.3 17.316.8

15.8

18.018.6

17.6 17.6

14.4

18.0 18.2

10

13

16

19

22

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

FY19

Q1FY20

FY20E

FY21E

%

EBITDA margin

Page 7: NIIT Technologies NIITEC)content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/IDirect_NIITTech_Q1FY... · 2019-07-26 · believe the company will be able to achieve the target mark led by revenue growth,

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7

ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | NIIT Technologies

Exhibit 10: PAT trend

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 11: One year forward rolling PE

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 12: Valuation

Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE

(| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)

FY17 2,802 4.5 40.8 (5.7) 32.6 15.3 14.8 18.7

FY18 2,991 6.8 45.6 11.9 29.4 14.7 15.8 19.4

FY19 3,676 22.9 65.7 43.9 20.1 11.1 19.9 24.2

FY20E 4,117 12.0 74.3 13.1 18.3 9.3 19.8 23.5

FY21E 4,587 11.4 83.9 13.0 16.0 7.9 19.7 23.8

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

194

264250

280

86112 100 106

403

88

456

515

0

100

200

300

400

500

600FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

FY19

Q1FY20

FY20E

FY21E

| c

rore

PAT

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Price 15 12 9 6 3

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ICICI Securities | Retail Research 8

ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | NIIT Technologies

Exhibit 13: Recommendation History vs. Consensus

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

100

400

700

1,000

1,300

1,600

1,900

Jul-

19

May-

19

Apr-

19

Feb-

19

Jan-

19

Nov-

18

Oct-

18

Aug-

18

Jun-

18

May-

18

Mar-

18

Feb-

18

Dec-

17

Nov-

17

Sep-

17

Aug-

17

Jun-

17

May-

17

Mar-

17

Jan-

17

Dec-

16

Oct-

16

Sep-

16

Jul-

16

Jun-

16

(%

)

(|)

Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 14: Top 10 Shareholders

Rank Name Latest Filing Date% O/S Position (m) Change (m)

1 Hulst (B V) 28-Jun-19 34.9% 21.6 1.1

2 Baring Private Equity Asia Ltd. 17-May-19 30.6% 18.9 18.9

3 HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd. 31-May-19 8.9% 5.5 0.1

4 UTI Asset Management Co. Ltd. 30-Jun-19 3.0% 1.9 0.0

5 Goldman Sachs Asset Management International 31-Mar-19 2.0% 1.3 -0.3

6 Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. 31-May-19 2.0% 1.2 0.0

7 Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C. 31-Mar-19 1.6% 1.0 0.2

8 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 30-Jun-19 1.5% 0.9 0.0

9 Polaris Capital Management, LLC 31-Mar-19 1.4% 0.9 0.0

10 APG Asset Management N.V. 31-Mar-19 1.4% 0.8 0.4

Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 15: Recent Activity

Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares

Baring Private Equity Asia Ltd. 354.9m 18.9m Scantech Evaluation Services, Ltd. -272.2m -14.5m

Hulst (B V) 22.1m 1.1m Thadani (Vijay K) -40.9m -2.2m

Al Mehwar Commercial Investments LLC 12.2m 0.6m Pawar (Rajendra Singh) -40.9m -2.2m

Lazard Asset Management, L.L.C. 12.1m 0.6m Ocean Dial Asset Management Limited -13.2m -0.7m

Acadian Asset Management LLC 11.7m 0.6m JPMorgan Asset Management U.K. Limited -7.3m -0.4m

Buys Sells

Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 16: Shareholding Pattern

(in %) Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19

Promoter 30.65 30.51 33.91

Public 69.35 69.49 66.09

Others 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total 100.00 100.00 100.00

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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ICICI Securities | Retail Research 9

ICICI Direct Research

Result Update | NIIT Technologies

Financial summary

Exhibit 17: Profit and loss statement | crore

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Total operating Income 2,991 3,676 4,117 4,587

Growth (%) 6.8 22.9 12.0 11.4

COGS (employee expenses) 1,918 2,391 2,676 2,973

S,G&A expenses 572 640 700 780

Total Operating Expenditure 2,490 3,031 3,376 3,752

EBITDA 501 645 741 835

Growth (%) 3.4 28.7 14.9 12.7

Depreciation 127 125 173 193

Other Income 30 48 54 68

PBT 404 568 623 710

Total Tax 95 140 153 174

Adjusted 'PAT 280 403 456 515

Growth (%) 12 44 13 13

Adjusted EPS (|) 45.6 65.7 74.3 83.9

Exceptional loss - 6 (6) -

Reported PAT 280 398 462 515

Reported EPS (|) 45.6 65.7 74.3 83.9

Growth (%) 11.9 43.9 13.1 13.0

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 18: Cash flow statement | crore

FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Profit before Tax 404 568 623 710

Add: Depreciation 127 125 173 193

(Inc)/dec in Current Assets (83) (192) (140) (148)

Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions - 134 58 75

Taxes paid (111) (140) (153) (174)

CF from operating activities 382 441 512 588

(Inc)/dec in Investments (561) - - -

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets (89) (115) (128) (143)

Others 6 48 54 68

CF from investing activities (270) (67) (74) (75)

Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 7 - - -

Inc/(dec) in loan funds 1 - - -

Dividend paid & dividend tax (81) (156) (176) (199)

CF from financing activities (74) (156) (176) (199)

Net Cash flow 38 218 262 314

Exchange difference 17 - - -

Opening Cash 408 418 637 898

Closing Cash 418 637 898 1,213

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 19: Balance sheet | crore

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Liabilities

Equity Capital 62 62 62 62

Reserve and Surplus 1,713 1,960 2,240 2,556

Total Shareholders funds 1,774 2,022 2,301 2,618

Total Debt 18 18 18 18

Provisions 74 74 74 74

Minority Interest / Other non CL 219 238 258 278

Total Liabilities 2,085 2,351 2,651 2,988

Assets

Net Block 636 626 581 532

Capital WIP 1 1 1 1

Total Fixed Assets 637 627 582 532

Goodwill 243 243 243 243

Deferred tax assets 123 123 123 123

Debtors 591 726 814 906

Other Current Assets 248 305 358 413

Cash 418 637 898 1,213

Current Investments 365 365 365 365

Total Current Assets 1,623 2,034 2,436 2,898

Trade payables 145 179 200 223

Other current liabities 369 453 494 537

Short term provisions 71 87 82 92

Total Current Liabilities 585 719 776 851

Net Current Assets 1,039 1,315 1,659 2,046

Application of Funds 2,085 2,351 2,651 2,988

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 20: Key ratios | crore

(Year-end March) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

Per share data (|)

Adjusted EPS (Diluted) 45.6 65.7 74.3 83.9

DPS 15.0 21.7 24.5 27.7

Cash per Share 68.1 105.1 144.5 197.5

BV per share (Diluted) 288.9 333.9 370.2 426.4

Operating Ratios (%)

EBITDA Margin 16.8 17.6 18.0 18.2

PBT Margin 13.5 15.5 15.1 15.5

PAT Margin 9.4 11.0 11.1 11.2

Debtor days 72 72 72 72

Creditor days 18 18 18 18

Return Ratios (%)

RoE 15.8 19.9 19.8 19.7

RoCE 19.4 24.2 23.5 23.8

RoIC 28.7 38.6 41.0 45.6

Valuation Ratios (x)

P/E (Adjusted) 29.4 20.1 18.3 16.0

EV / EBITDA 14.7 11.1 9.3 7.9

EV / Net Sales 2.5 1.9 1.7 1.4

Market Cap / Sales 2.7 2.2 2.0 1.8

Price to Book Value 4.6 4.0 3.6 3.1

Solvency Ratios

Debt/EBITDA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Debt / Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Current Ratio 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5

Quick Ratio 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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Exhibit 21: ICICI Direct coverage universe (IT)

CMP M Cap

(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY18 FY19 FY20E

Cyient (INFENT) 487 475 Hold 5,371 36.0 42.4 38.6 13.3 11.3 12.4 8.2 7.3 7.2 21.4 21.4 17.7 17.3 18.7 15.2

Eclerx (ECLSER) 607 860Reduce 3,532 72.9 60.0 63.1 12.7 15.5 14.7 8.0 9.1 9.2 28.2 21.5 24.8 24.1 16.5 18.9

Firstsource (FIRSOU) 49 60 Buy 3,502 4.8 5.4 5.9 10.7 9.4 8.6 8.8 7.2 6.2 13.0 14.0 15.7 13.9 13.9 13.8

HCL Tech (HCLTEC) 1,016 1,190 Hold 146,833 62.6 74.7 76.7 17.3 14.5 14.1 12.5 10.1 9.1 27.4 26.5 26.0 23.8 24.5 22.5

Infosys (INFTEC) 786 845 Hold 335,118 32.3 35.4 39.4 23.8 21.7 19.5 16.2 14.8 13.0 30.9 32.9 32.8 22.5 23.7 24.3

MindTree (MINCON) 690 635Reduce 11,313 34.3 45.9 37.7 20.1 15.0 18.3 14.3 9.7 10.0 24.9 29.8 24.4 20.8 22.8 17.0

L&T Intotech (LTINFO) 1,449 1,710 Hold 26,301 64.7 87.3 84.1 23.4 17.4 18.0 20.8 12.8 12.1 36.0 40.4 33.0 28.8 31.0 25.1

NIIT Tech (NIITEC) 1,342 1,345 Hold 8,125 45.6 65.7 74.3 29.4 20.1 18.3 14.7 11.1 9.3 19.4 24.2 23.5 15.8 19.9 19.8

Persistent (PSYS) 565 650 Hold 5,119 40.5 44.0 48.7 15.8 14.6 13.2 9.1 7.1 6.4 19.8 20.5 20.5 15.2 15.0 14.9

TCS (TCS) 2,106 2,080 Hold 790,125 67.4 83.8 88.8 31.2 25.0 23.7 23.0 18.9 17.2 37.6 43.8 43.2 29.6 34.4 33.9

Tech M (TECMAH) 663 845 Hold 67,723 42.8 47.7 51.4 17.6 15.8 14.6 13.4 9.5 8.2 21.5 23.6 23.2 20.2 21.2 19.8

Wipro (WIPRO) 263 315 Buy 160,796 12.7 14.9 16.4 21.1 17.9 16.2 13.8 11.1 10.0 16.9 17.8 17.3 16.6 15.8 15.9

EV/EBITDA (x)P/E (x)

Sector / Company

RoE (%)RoCE (%)EPS (|)

Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its

stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,

Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined

as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

[email protected]

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