NEW HAMPSHIRES 2nd
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
EARLY FRONTLINE INTEL PACKET
MATERIALS PREPARED FOR REPRESENTATIVE ANN MCLANE KUSTER
DCCC ANALYTICS & TARGETING DEPARTMENT
APRIL 2015
April 23, 2015
Dear Frontline Members,
Im proud to share with you these Early Frontline Intel packets, designed by our Analytics Department to arm you with the strategic understanding of your district youll need to be successful in your voter outreach efforts this year.
These packets are a sign of my commitment to your success and the expanded emphasis the DCCC is placing on data-driven strategy and programs. I heard from several of you how helpful similar packets were in the summer of 2013, so I am pleased to bring this information to you earlier than ever before. In these packets you will find:
Analysis of Trends in Democratic Support to help you identify opportunities to further strengthen your own support and mitigate potential areas of vulnerability.
Analysis of Voter Turnout Patterns, including the most extreme areas of voter drop off in 2014 and areas for you to reengage sporadic voting communities heading into 2016.
Analysis of Recent Campaign Activity, showing the focus of your 2014 field efforts and where that might have contributed to higher support and or/ turnout.
A Preliminary Look Ahead to 2016, previewing areas of your district where the overall vote, as well as the votes of key demographic groups, are concentrated, and how the upcoming electorate compares to that of recent elections.
These packets are the first in a series of state of the art tools the Analytics Department is building for you and your campaigns this cycle. In the months ahead, you can look forward to additional tools, such as:
Win Calculator, a tool to pinpoint how many votes youll need to win in 2016, and how to find those votes through a combination of tools (field, direct mail, television, digital) and tactics (persuasion, turnout, voter registration).
National Turnout and Support Models, to focus your voter contact programs on those who are likely to vote and open to voting for you.
National Ticket Splitter Model, to identify persuasion targets who support a presidential nominee of a different party than the candidate they may support in the congressional election.
Should you have any questions regarding about this material, please contact our National Analytics Director, Christina Coloroso, via email at [email protected].
Sincerely,
Representative Ben Ray Lujan
Chairman, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
PART 1: DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT TRENDS
HOW TO USE THIS SECTION:
THIS SECTION HIGHLIGHTS PATTERNS IN DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT IN RECENT ELECTION CYCLES AND ACROSS SEVERAL LEVELS OF ELECTED OFFICE.
THE MAPS THAT FOLLOW HELP IDENTIFY AREAS OF YOUR DISTRICT THAT CONSISTENTLY VOTE DEMOCRATIC (YOUR BASE), CONSISTENTLY VOTE REPUBLICAN (THE OTHER SIDES BASE), OR SWING BACK AND FORTH DEPENDING ON THE CANDIDATES AND ELECTION CYCLE (KEY PERSUASION TARGETS). IN LOOKING AT EACH MAP ON ITS OWN AND IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER MAPS, YOU WILL FIND OPPORTUNITIES TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN YOUR OWN LEVEL OF SUPPORT AND MITIGATE POTENTIAL AREAS OF VULNERABILITY.
SPECIFICALLY, THIS SECTION CONTAINS:
2014 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT MAP: THIS MAP VISUALIZES THE PERCENT OF THE MAJOR PARTY VOTE YOU RECEIVED IN EACH TOWN IN YOUR DISTRICT IN THE 2014 GENERAL ELECTION. USE THIS MAP AS A STARTING POINT FOR UNDERSTANDING YOUR OVERALL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES RELATIVE TO YOUR 2014 REPUBLICAN OPPONENT.
2014 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT VS. 2014 TOP OF TICKET MAPS: THESE MAPS COMPARE YOUR LEVEL OF SUPPORT IN THE 2014 GENERAL ELECTION TO THAT OF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES IN THE 2014 GUBERNATORIAL AND SENATORIAL RACES. USE THESE MAPS TO LOCATE AREAS WHERE YOU OVERPERFORMED THE TOP OF THE TICKET (SHADED IN BLUE), AS WELL AS AREAS WHERE YOU MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE YOUR SUPPORT BASED ON HOW WELL OTHER DEMOCRATS HAVE DONE THERE (SHADED IN RED).
2014 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT VS. 2012 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT MAP: THIS MAP COMPARES YOUR LEVEL OF SUPPORT IN THE 2014 GENERAL ELECTION TO THE LEVEL OF SUPPORT YOU RECEIVED IN THOSE SAME TOWNS IN 2012. USE THIS MAP TO IDENTIFY TOWNS WHERE YOUR SUPPORT MAY HAVE DECLINED OVER TIME, AS WELL AS AREAS WHICH ARE GENERALLY MORE DEMOCRATIC IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLES LIKE 2012 AND 2016.
2014 ACTUAL CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT VS. MODELED SUPPORT MAP: THE FINAL MAP IN THIS SECTION COMPARES THE ACTUAL LEVEL OF SUPPORT YOU RECEIVED IN THE 2014 GENERAL ELECTION AGAINST THAT WHICH WAS PROJECTED BASED ON DCCC MODELING. USE THIS MAP TO FIND AREAS WHERE YOU OVERPERFORMED (SHADED IN BLUE) OR UNDERPERFORMED (SHADED IN RED) PROJECTIONS. THE DCCC WILL USE THIS MAP TO FURTHER IMPROVE OUR SUPPORT MODELING.
2014 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT
OVERALL RESULTS SUMMARY: KUSTER 55.0%, GARCIA 45.0%
2014 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT vs.
2014 SENATORIAL SUPPORT
CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS SUMMARY: KUSTER 55.0%, GARCIA 45.0%
SENATORIAL RESULTS SUMMARY: SHAHEEN 53.9%, BROWN 46.1%
2014 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT vs.
2014 GUBERNATORIAL SUPPORT
CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS SUMMARY: KUSTER 55.0%, GARCIA 45.0%
GUBERNATORIAL RESULTS SUMMARY: HASSAN 54.1%, HAVENSTEIN 45.9%
2014 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT vs.
2012 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT
2014 RESULTS SUMMARY: KUSTER 55.0%, GARCIA 45.0%
2012 RESULTS SUMMARY: KUSTER 52.5%, BASS 47.5%
2014 CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT vs. MODELED SUPPORT
ACTUAL RESULTS SUMMARY: KUSTER 55.0%, GARCIA 45.0%
MODELED SUPPORT: KUSTER: 49.8%, GARCIA 50.2%
PART 2: VOTER TURNOUT TRENDS
HOW TO USE THIS SECTION:
THIS SECTION HIGHLIGHTS PATTERNS IN VOTER TURNOUT IN RECENT ELECTION CYCLES.
THE MAPS THAT FOLLOW BRING ATTENTION TO AREAS WHICH SHOWED THE MOST EXTREME RATES OF VOTER DROP OFF IN THE 2014 ELECTION. THESE AREAS PROVIDE YOU THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO REENGAGE SPORADIC SUPPORTERS HEADING IN TO 2016.
SPECIFICALLY, THIS SECTION CONTAINS:
2014 TURNOUT MAP: THIS MAP VISUALIZES THE PERCENT OF REGISTERED VOTERS WHO VOTED IN THE 2014 GENERAL ELECTION IN EACH TOWN OF YOUR DISTRICT. USE THIS MAP AS A STARTING POINT FOR UNDERSTANDING AREAS OF HIGH OR LOW TURNOUT IN A MIDTERM ELECTION.
2014 TURNOUT VS. 2012 TURNOUT MAP: THIS MAP COMPARES VOTER TURNOUT IN THE 2014 AND 2012 GENERAL ELECTIONS. USE THIS MAP TO LOCATE TOWNS WHERE TURNOUT WAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN A MIDTERM ELECTION RELATIVE TO THE PRIOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. SUPPORTIVE TOWNS WITH HIGH VOTER DROP OFF ARE HIGH PRIORITY GOTV TARGETS FOR YOUR CAMPAIGN.
SUMMARY SPREADSHEET: 2014 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS BY PRECINCT: THIS SPREADSHEET SUMMARIZES SUPPORT LEVELS IN THE 2014 GENERAL ELECTION BY TWON. USE THIS SPREADSHEET TO ISOLATE SPECIFIC RESULTS BY TOWN/COUNTY AND SORT THE RESULTS BY SUPPORT
2014 TURNOUT
2014 TURNOUT: 54.2% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
2014 TURNOUT vs. 2012 TURNOUT
2014 TURNOUT: 54.2% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
2012 TURNOUT: 80.3% OF REGISTERED VOTERS
PART 3: RECENT CAMPAIGN ACTIVITY
HOW TO USE THIS SECTION:
THIS SECTION VISUALIZES THE FOCUS OF YOUR 2014 FIELD PROGRAM.
THE ACTIVITY REFLECTED COVERS BOTH THE PERSUASION AND TURNOUT ELEMENTS OF THE FIELD PROGRAM, AS APPROPRIATE. AS YOU LOOK AT THIS MAP, YOU WILL SEE HOW WELL-TARGETED PROGRAMS PLACE THE GREATEST EMPHASIS ON SWING AREAS OF THE DISTRICT, AS WELL AS AREAS WITH VOLATILE TURNOUT. AREAS OF HEAVY ACTIVITY MAY ALSO OVERLAP WITH THE DISTRICTS POPULATION CENTERS.
SPECIFICALLY, THIS SECTION CONTAINS:
2014 VOTERS ATTEMPTED THROUGH FIELD MAP: THIS MAP SHOWS THE NUMBER OF VOTERS ATTEMPTED BY THE NH-02 FIELD TEAM IN EACH TOWN OF THE DISTRICT IN 2014. USE THIS MAP IN TANDEM WITH THE SUPPORT AND TURNOUT MAPS IN EARLIER SECTIONS TO SEE PLACES WHERE YOUR CAMPAIGNS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SUPPORT AND TURNOUT, AS WELL AS UNCULTIVATED AREAS WHERE ADDITIONAL VOTER ENGAGEMENT MAY BE NEEDED.
2014 VOTERS ATTEMPTED THROUGH FIELD
2014 TOTAL VOTERS ATTEMPTED: 145,811
PART 4: LOOK AHEAD TO 2016
HOW TO USE THIS SECTION:
THIS SECTION IS A FIRST LOOK AT WHAT THE 2016 ELECTORATE IS LIKELY TO LOOK LIKE IN YOUR DISTRICT, GIVEN THE PATTERNS SHOWN IN THE MOST RECENT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2012.
THE MATERIALS THAT FOLLOW HIGHLIGHT AREAS WHICH CONTAIN THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF LIKELY VOTERS OVERALL, AS WELL AS KEY POCKETS OF MINORITY AND YOUTH VOTERS. USE THESE TOOLS TO BETTER FOCUS YOUR TIME AND ENERGY, AND TO PLAN TO FIND APPROPRIATE COMMUNITY VALIDATORS TO HELP YOU ENGAGE THESE COMMUNITIES ACROSS YOUR DISTRICT.
AS ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE, WE WILL UPDATE THESE PROJECTIONS TO BETTER REFLECT THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENT.
SPECIFICALLY, THIS SECTION CONTAINS:
ELECTORATE COMPOSITION CALCULATOR: THIS SPREADSHEET HAS TWO PARTS. THE SECTION ON THE RIGHT CONTAINS ACTUAL COUNTS AND PERCENTAGES OF REGISTERED VOTERS AND VOTES CAST IN THE 2010, 2012, AND 2014 GENERAL ELECTIONS. THE SECTION ON THE LEFT IS A DYNAMIC TOOL TO HELP YOU CALCULATE WHAT THE 2016 ELECTORATE WILL LOOK LIKE BASED ON THESE HISTORICAL ELECTION RESULTS. BY CHANGING HOW CLOSELY YOUR PROJECTION MIRRORS THE 2012 AND 2014 ELECTIONS, THIS CALCULATOR WILL AUTOMATICALLY RECALCULATE THE ELECTORATE COMPOSITION FOR 2016. USE THIS TOOL TO CREATE MULTIPLE 2016 SCENARIOS FROM BEST CASE TO WORST CASE FOR YOUR DISTRICT.
TOTAL SHARE OF ELECTORATE IN PRESIDENTIAL CYCLES MAP: THIS MAP SHOWS THE TOTAL SHARE OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORATE BROKEN DOWN WITHIN EACH TOWN OF YOUR DISTRICT. USE THIS MAP TO VISUALIZE TOWNS THAT MADE UP A L
