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8/6/2019 Newsline China 09-08-2011 e
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ECONOMIC RESEARCH & CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT
The
NewsLineAugust 9, 2011} M A C R O E C O N O M I C S F I N A N C I A L M A R K E T S E C O N O M I C P O L I C Y S E C T O R S
C H I N A
Further signs of an economicslowdown
The economic data published today corroborate our view that
the trend towards slightly more moderate growth rates for the
Chinese economy will continue in the second half of the year. In
2011 as a whole, real gross domestic product is expected to
climb by 9.3%, following an increase to the tune of 9.6% in thefirst six months of the year.
As the National Statistics Office announced today, industrial production in July
was up by 14% in a year-on-year comparison, following an increase of 15.1% in
June. Based on seasonally adjusted figures, production growth in July slowed to
0.9% as against the previous month (June: 1.4%). Although we should not attach
too much importance to the fact that July's industrial production data fell short
of the market expectations - especially since developments in the previous
month had come as something of a positive surprise - today's production data,
coupled with the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector that
was published last week, provide further evidence that economic momentum islikely to continue to taper off slightly in the second half of 2011. At 50.7 points,
the purchasing managers' index is currently sitting at the lowest level since
February 2009, just a notch above the 50-point expansion threshold. The
optimism among Chinese companies as regards the export outlook, in
particular, is now only subdued.
Amidst all the talk of waning economic momentum, however, it is important to
remember that this economic slowdown is due not least to Chinese economic
policy, and is therefore entirely intentional. The government has been battling
with various signs of overheating on the Chinese economy for some time now. In
recent months, one of the main headaches for economic policy has been the
steep rise in consumer prices. In July, they increased by 6.5% year-on-year, the
8/6/2019 Newsline China 09-08-2011 e
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E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H & C O R P O R A T E D E V E L O P M E N T
The
NewsLine page 2 of 3August 9, 2011
steepest rise for three years. However, given the most recent developments in
energy prices, we expect the inflation rate to drift back towards the 4% mark in
the months to come.
Gregor Eder
Phone +49.69.263-53358
https://www.allianz.com/economic-research/en/
mailto:[email protected]://www.allianz.com/economic-research/en/https://www.allianz.com/economic-research/en/mailto:[email protected]8/6/2019 Newsline China 09-08-2011 e
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E C O N O M I C R E S E A R C H & C O R P O R A T E D E V E L O P M E N T
The
NewsLine page 3 of 3August 9, 2011
These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.
ABOUT ALLIANZ GROU P
Together with its customers and sales partners, Allianz is one of the strongest financial communities. More than 76
million private and corporate customers rely on Allianz's knowledge, global reach, capital strength and solidity to help
them make the most of f inancial opportunities and to avoid and safeguard themselves against risks.
In 2010 151,000 employees in 70 countries achieved total revenue of 106.5 billion Euros and an operating profit of 8.2
billion Euros. Benefits for our customers reached 91.4 billion Euros.
This business success with insurance, asset management and assistance services is based increasingly on customer
demand for crisis-proof financial solutions for an ageing society and the challenges of climate change. Transparency
and integrity are key components of sustainable corporate governance at Allianz SE.
CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements
that are based on managements current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and
uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or
implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are forward-looking by reason of context, the words "may",
"will", "should", "expects", "plans", "intends", "anticipates", "believes", "estimates", "predicts", "potential", or "continue" and
similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially
from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic conditions, including in particular
economic conditions in the Allianz Groups core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets,
including emerging markets, and including market volatility, liquidity and credit events (iii) the frequency and severity
of insured loss events, including from natural catastrophes and including the development of loss expenses, (iv)
mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate
levels, (viii) currency exchange rates including the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels of competition,
(x) changes in laws and regulations, including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes
in the policies of central banks and/or foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related
integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures, and (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local,
regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a
result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking
statement.
NO DUTY TO UPDATE
The company assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein.