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2/2/2016 Congress citadel faces collapse: The India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll finds that Congress is losing its grip on Andhra Pradesh after creating Telang...
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/congress-andhra-pradesh-telangana-seemandhra-and-rayalaseema-regions/1/356447.html 1/7
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News Archive NATION April 28, 2014
April 18, 2014 | UPDATED 11:17 IST
In Andhra Pradesh, since its creation on October 1, 1953, the Congress never got less than38 per cent of the votes in Lok Sabha polls. Even in the historic post-Emergency 1977election, when it lost practically every major state, Andhra stood by Indira Gandhi and gaveher party a phenomenal 56 per cent votes and 41 of the 42 seats. But with the imminentbifurcation of the state on June 2, Andhra appears to be slipping out of the party's hold.
Congress
According to the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll conducted during April 2-10, 2014among 1,793 respondents in Andhra, Congress is likely to win 5 (plus minus 1) seats out ofthe 42 seats, down from 33 in 2009. Its vote share (together with the merged Praja RajyamParty) is likely to come down from almost 57 per cent to 16 per cent. The swing away of 39per cent is more than two-and-a-half times the maximum 14.5 per cent (1980 to 1984) itever suffered. The loss of popularity is across caste, age and gender categories, butparticularly pronounced among the Reddys and in rural areas.
The large swing away from the Congress is in spite of the fact that, according to the opinionpoll, almost 60 per cent of the voters are satisfied with the UPA Government's performancein the past 10 years.
The reasons for the Congress's likely poor performance are different in Seemandhra andRayalaseema regions (for brevity, Seemandhra henceforth) and in Telangana. In
Congress citadel faces collapse: TheIndia Today Group-Cicero opinion pollfinds that Congress is losing its grip onAndhra Pradesh after creating TelanganaReasons for the Congress's likely poor performance are different in Seemandhra andRayalaseema regions and in Telangana.
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2/2/2016 Congress citadel faces collapse: The India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll finds that Congress is losing its grip on Andhra Pradesh after creating Telang...
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/congress-andhra-pradesh-telangana-seemandhra-and-rayalaseema-regions/1/356447.html 2/7
N.Chandrababu Naidu at an election rally in Hyderabad
Seemandhra, which has 25 of the 42 seats, there appears to be a complete collapse ofCongress support. After former chief minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy died in a helicoptercrash in September 2009, the party was already suffering a revolt by his son Y.S. JaganMohan Reddy. Jagan Reddy resigned from the Congress and his Kadapa Lok Sabha seat,and trounced his opponents in the by-poll for Kadapa in May 2011. The Congress andTelugu Desam Party (TDP) candidates forfeited their deposits.
Jagan founded the YSR Congress, faced CBI charges for amassing wealth by questionablemeans, and spent 16 months in judicial custody under the Prevention of Corruption Act,1988. There appears to be some sympathy for Jagan in Seemandhra. According to the IndiaToday Group-Cicero opinion poll, Jagan is the favourite choice of 33 per cent of the votersfor the chief minister's post, way above N. Kiran Reddy (9 per cent), the Congress CM untilmid-February when he quit the party, or even TDP leader N. Chandrababu Naidu (29 percent).
The Telangana issue has also done serious damage to the Congress in Seemandhra.According to an earlier poll, two-thirds of the people of Seemandhra blame the Congress forthe bifurcation of the state. After the Lok Sabha passed the bill to create Telangana,Congress MP from Vijayawada, Lagadapati Rajagopal, also known as "pepper-spray MP",resigned and announced that he was quitting politics. His was a spectacular performance,but he was not alone in expressing his displeasure.
The Praja Rajyam Party, led by actor , which secured 15.7 per cent of the votes inthe 2009 Lok Sabha polls but no seats, merged with the Congress in August 2011.Chiranjeevi, who became a Rajya Sabha member and Union minister of state, was seenprotesting in Parliament against the split. His flock is reported to have deserted theCongress. Several Congress MPs, including Union ministers, also resigned. With KiranReddy formally launching the Jai Samaikyandhra Party on March 12, the implosion ofCongress in Seemandhra seems imminent.
Unfortunately for the Congress, while it is blamed in Seemandhra for dividing Andhra, it isgetting hardly any credit in Telangana for creating a new state. The credit seems to be goingto K. Chandrasekhar Rao's (KCR) Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). The expectation of theCongress that TRS would merge, or at least have a seat adjustment, with it has not beenfulfilled.
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2/2/2016 Congress citadel faces collapse: The India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll finds that Congress is losing its grip on Andhra Pradesh after creating Telang...
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/congress-andhra-pradesh-telangana-seemandhra-and-rayalaseema-regions/1/356447.html 3/7
Divide and rule
TRS
KCR, the founder and president of TRS, was a member of TDP until he quit due todifferences with Chandrababu Naidu and formed TRS in 2001. KCR and TRS have acted verydifferently from Dr M. Channa Reddy and his Telangana Praja Samithi (TPS) formed in thelate 1960s with Congress legislators from Telangana region to demand a separate state. ByNovember 1969, TPS split when dissident Congress legislators realised that Prime MinisterIndira Gandhi was not in favour of a separate state. The movement petered out. This time,however, it is different. The TRS-led statehood movement has succeeded and there is nostrong Congress leader like Indira Gandhi.
The strategy of TRS appears to be paying dividends. Mostly on the basis of its performancein the 17 Lok Sabha constituencies in Telangana, according to the India Today Group-Ciceroopinion poll, the TRS is likely to more than double its vote share in undivided Andhra from 6per cent in 2009 to 13 per cent. The corresponding increase in Telengana is from a littleover 15.5 to 32 per cent. Its seat tally is likely to go up from 3 in 2009 to 8 (plus minus 2).
BJP-TDP and YSR Congress
BJP has a small base in Andhra Pradesh. Except in 1998, it has never managed to get morethan 10 per cent of the votes. In terms of Lok Sabha seats, its best performance was 7 outof 42 in 1999 when it had a pre-poll alliance with TDP. The BJP-TDP alliance broke downafter the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.
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2/2/2016 Congress citadel faces collapse: The India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll finds that Congress is losing its grip on Andhra Pradesh after creating Telang...
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BJP faced a tricky situation with the Telangana issue. It had supported the creation ofTelangana as a separate state, but asked for appropriate compensation for the new state ofSeemandhra. By doing so, and also restoring its pre-poll alliance with TDP, it wanted to dowell in both Telangana and Seemandhra regions.
According to the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll, in Andhra, 47 per cent of therespondents support as PM, far ahead of anyone else. With the perception ofa 'Modi wave', and having been out of power for 10 years, TDP may have seen advantage ina 'Modi as PM and Babu as CM' strategy. It has joined the BJP-led National DemocraticAlliance (NDA). The Jana Sena Party, led by actor Pawan Kalyan, and Lok Satta Party ofJayaprakash Narayan are also part of NDA.
According to the India Today Group-Cicero opinion poll, NDA is likely to increase its voteshare from almost 29 per cent in 2009 to 37 per cent and win 19 (plus minus 2) seats. YSRCongress will make a spectacular entry in the Seemandhra electoral scene by grabbing 24per cent of the votes and 9 (plus minus 2) seats. With Jagan leading Naidu in the electionsfor the chief minister's post, the contest between YSR Congress and TDP in the VidhanSabha elections in Seemandhra may be a tight one indeed.
Narendra Modi
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