十字路口，何去何從？

經濟資訊月刊二○二○年八月號

02

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今期內容

今期內容

在持續不確定性中反彈

華僑銀行財富管理專家團隊借鑒了華僑銀行集團財富管理專家(即來自

華僑銀行、華僑銀行投資研究部、利安資金管理公司及新加坡銀行的

專家)的集體智慧和經驗。憑藉在集體投資方面逾200年的經驗，華僑

銀行財富管理專家團隊致力為你提供及時的諮詢服務，以增加、管理

和保障你的財富。

保持中性持倉

美中緊張局勢升溫令不確定性加劇

繼續看好新興市場高收益債券

金價將長期居高不下

香港復蘇仍前路漫漫

全球前景

股市

香港 / 中國市場前景

債券

外匯及商品

專題

P 03-04

P 04-05

P 05-06

P 06

P 07

P 08

關於華僑銀行財富管理專家團隊

ELI LEE新加坡銀行投資策略主管

展望未來，經濟前景仍然充滿不確定性。新冠病毒疫情捲土重來，難以控制，令經濟復蘇步伐疑雲籠罩。

較為有利的發展是，歐洲多國就7,500億歐元的復蘇基金達成協議，增強了市場對當地經濟復蘇的信心。

全球經濟初期因放寬封鎖措施而強勁回升後，整體的復蘇步伐將變得較不平衡。目前看來，中國2020年全年的國內生產總值(GDP)有望錄得正增長，而同期歐洲GDP預計將萎縮7.9%，美國GDP則下跌5.1%，兩者均略遜於之前的預期。由於中國增長前景改善，2020年的全球GDP增長預測已由上月的-2.5%上調至-2.2%。

政策扶持減少，加上在某些情況下新冠病毒疫情再次爆發，將破壞增長勢頭。許多發達經濟體的經濟活動要到2021年底或2022年才能恢復到危機前的水平。因此，決策者在試圖取消政策扶持措施時可能會謹慎行事。

在持續不確定性中反彈

十字路口，何去何從？

全球前景

隨著限制措施放寬和經濟活動回暖，經濟衰退正式結束，但營商環境可能仍會困難重重。

• 儘管我們認為經濟週期的低谷已經過去，但經濟產值要到2022年才會完全恢復到新冠病毒疫情之前的水平。

• 目前看來，中國2020年全年的國內生產總值(GDP)有望錄得正增長，而同期歐洲GDP預計將萎縮7.9%，美國GDP則下跌5.1%，兩者均略遜於之前的預期。由於中國增長前景改善，2020年的全球GDP增長預測已由上月的-2.5%上調至-2.2%。

• 經過2020年第二季度的大幅度停運停擺之後，單靠復工就已令經濟在基數極低的情況下急劇反彈，這點不足為奇，但要小心的是不應把最初的急劇反彈推斷為完整的V型反彈。全球經濟復蘇之路仍然充滿不確定性，並且高度依賴持續的政策扶持。

• 政策扶持減少，加上在某些情況下新冠病毒疫情再次爆發，將破壞增長勢頭。許多發達經濟體的經濟活動要到2021年底或2022年才能恢復到危機前的水平。因此，決策者在試圖取消政策扶持措施時可能會謹慎行事。

• 全球經濟初期因放寬封鎖措施而強勁回升後，整體的復蘇步伐將變得較不平衡。

03全球前景

增長勢頭停滯不前• 根據我們假設的基本情境，當前市場

情緒樂觀，但實際上復蘇進程曠日持久，不免令人擔憂，且增長勢頭亦開始顯現停滯之象。

• 在美國勞動力市場上，首次申領失業救濟人數在15週期間從3月份的690萬頂峰回落至130萬後，於截至7月24日的兩週內又再上升。值得一提的是，美國經濟諮商會消費信心指數在連續三個月上升至6月份的98.3之後，於7月份亦回落至92.6。

• 即使是在疫情控制方面較為領先的中國，高頻指標監測亦顯示經濟活動正常化的步伐正在放緩。這並不足為奇，原因是國際貿易和出口是中國經濟的主要組成部分，故全球經濟疲軟對中國來說是一個重大的負面因素。

感染率的上升趨勢不太可能導致廣泛停擺• 各疫情熱點的感染率上升，阻礙了復

蘇勢頭。在美國，好消息是新增病例已開始減少。

• 鑑於政治意願減弱，加上感染者的平均年齡較低令死亡率平緩，我們預期美國

決策者不會恢復大範圍的封鎖措施。• 然而，由於缺乏有效疫苗，隨後疫情

爆發的威脅將依然嚴峻。這會繼續影響經濟重啟的速度，因而削弱消費者和投資者的信心。

保持廣泛的刺激措施 • 在7月份的聯邦公開市場委員會會議上，

聯儲局重申「採取一切措施」來支持經濟復蘇的立場。

• 聯儲局已延長今年七個危機計劃，其中包括一級和二級市場公司信貸計劃以及薪資保障計劃流動性貸款工具。所有這些計劃將於9月至12月底期間屆滿。

• 我們進一步預期聯儲局將在2020年下半年使用「平均通脹指標」框架，進一步加強貫徹將利率維持在接近零水平的承諾，這實際上等於進一步放寬美國的貨幣政策。

• 在財政方面，緊隨歐洲聯盟通過歷史性的7,500億歐元刺激計劃之後，我們預計美國很快會出台另一項財政方案。

疫苗競賽日益激烈• 新冠病毒療法的最終成功發布，應該

會減緩該病毒對全球經濟增長的長期

影響。• 在踏入2020年下半年後，全世界的科

學家都在爭分奪秒研製疫苗，以克服新冠病毒疫情對全球經濟全面重啟所造成的重重障礙。

• 截至7月底，至少有139種候選疫苗已處於臨床前評估階段，有26種候選疫苗處於臨床評估階段。

• 面對疫情危機不斷加劇，疫苗臨床試驗仍然進展緩慢。對於如何訂立可接受的標準來確定疫苗的安全和有效性，全球各監管機構並無清晰和一致的看法，這令人感到困惑。

• 成功疫苗的定義可能各異其趣，因為

有些疫苗的作用是觸發免疫系統進行對抗，而非預防感染，而其他疫苗則

無法透過殺滅病毒來提供免疫力(即產生中和抗體，阻止病毒進入細胞)。

ELI LEE新加坡銀行投資策略主管

• 儘管我們認為經濟週期的低谷已經過去，但經濟產值要到2022年才會完全恢復到新冠病毒疫情之前的水平。

• 目前看來，中國2020年全年的國內生產總值(GDP)有望錄得正增長，而同期歐洲GDP預計將萎縮7.9%，美國GDP則下跌5.1%，兩者均略遜於之前的預期。由於中國增長前景改善，2020年的全球GDP增長預測已由上月的-2.5%上調至-2.2%。

• 經過2020年第二季度的大幅度停運停擺之後，單靠復工就已令經濟在基數極低的情況下急劇反彈，這點不足為奇，但要小心的是不應把最初的急劇反彈推斷為完整的V型反彈。全球經濟復蘇之路仍然充滿不確定性，並且高度依賴持續的政策扶持。

• 政策扶持減少，加上在某些情況下新冠病毒疫情再次爆發，將破壞增長勢頭。許多發達經濟體的經濟活動要到2021年底或2022年才能恢復到危機前的水平。因此，決策者在試圖取消政策扶持措施時可能會謹慎行事。

• 全球經濟初期因放寬封鎖措施而強勁回升後，整體的復蘇步伐將變得較不平衡。

增長勢頭停滯不前• 根據我們假設的基本情境，當前市場

情緒樂觀，但實際上復蘇進程曠日持久，不免令人擔憂，且增長勢頭亦開始顯現停滯之象。

• 在美國勞動力市場上，首次申領失業救濟人數在15週期間從3月份的690萬頂峰回落至130萬後，於截至7月24日的兩週內又再上升。值得一提的是，美國經濟諮商會消費信心指數在連續三個月上升至6月份的98.3之後，於7月份亦回落至92.6。

• 即使是在疫情控制方面較為領先的中國，高頻指標監測亦顯示經濟活動正常化的步伐正在放緩。這並不足為奇，原因是國際貿易和出口是中國經濟的主要組成部分，故全球經濟疲軟對中國來說是一個重大的負面因素。

感染率的上升趨勢不太可能導致廣泛停擺• 各疫情熱點的感染率上升，阻礙了復

蘇勢頭。在美國，好消息是新增病例已開始減少。

• 鑑於政治意願減弱，加上感染者的平均年齡較低令死亡率平緩，我們預期美國

決策者不會恢復大範圍的封鎖措施。• 然而，由於缺乏有效疫苗，隨後疫情

爆發的威脅將依然嚴峻。這會繼續影響經濟重啟的速度，因而削弱消費者和投資者的信心。

保持廣泛的刺激措施 • 在7月份的聯邦公開市場委員會會議上，

聯儲局重申「採取一切措施」來支持經濟復蘇的立場。

• 聯儲局已延長今年七個危機計劃，其中包括一級和二級市場公司信貸計劃以及薪資保障計劃流動性貸款工具。所有這些計劃將於9月至12月底期間屆滿。

• 我們進一步預期聯儲局將在2020年下半年使用「平均通脹指標」框架，進一步加強貫徹將利率維持在接近零水平的承諾，這實際上等於進一步放寬美國的貨幣政策。

• 在財政方面，緊隨歐洲聯盟通過歷史性的7,500億歐元刺激計劃之後，我們預計美國很快會出台另一項財政方案。

疫苗競賽日益激烈• 新冠病毒療法的最終成功發布，應該

會減緩該病毒對全球經濟增長的長期

股市

04 全球前景 股市

影響。• 在踏入2020年下半年後，全世界的科

學家都在爭分奪秒研製疫苗，以克服新冠病毒疫情對全球經濟全面重啟所造成的重重障礙。

• 截至7月底，至少有139種候選疫苗已處於臨床前評估階段，有26種候選疫苗處於臨床評估階段。

• 面對疫情危機不斷加劇，疫苗臨床試驗仍然進展緩慢。對於如何訂立可接受的標準來確定疫苗的安全和有效性，全球各監管機構並無清晰和一致的看法，這令人感到困惑。

• 成功疫苗的定義可能各異其趣，因為

保持中性持倉 鑑於未來的風險和不確定性，即使經濟數據在經濟重啟時提供一定支持，但我們繼續維持中性的股票持倉。

• 股票方面，由於我們已擺脫新冠病毒疫情帶來的衰退並進入下一個擴張週期，我們認為長期風險回報將趨於穩健，因此在資產配置策略中維持中性的股票持倉。

• 然而，鑑於估值已大致反映經濟至2021年為止的初步復蘇，加上疫情再次爆發、美國大選和美中地緣政局等重大風險隱約可見，我們認為短期內股票波動的風險將高於平均水平。

• 我們認為，儘管投資者將需要維持在科技和醫療保健等增長行業的核心持倉，但現在正是重新平衡投資組合的恰當時機，沽出股價已大幅領先的增長股和動力股，轉而購入資產負債表穩健且業務模式穩定的週期股和價值股，原因是該等股票有望受惠於長期經濟復蘇。

美國• 對2020年第二季度業績期，市場普遍

預期標準普爾500指數的每股盈利將按年急挫42%。

• 數碼趨勢方興未艾及低利率環境，均是帶動美國增長股由年初至今取得強勁表現的利好因素。但是，市場集中度創下新高，對綜合指數表現構成風險。超大型科技股佔指數的權重異常

巨大，可能會導致標準普爾500指數容易受到行業或企業的非系統性風險衝擊。

• 我們認為，從增長股換馬至價值股/週期股的潛在催化因素包括：

(a) 美國的新增新冠病毒病例減少及疫苗開發取得進展；

(b) 受不利影響的行業受惠於盈利向上修訂；及

(c) 政府將於未來幾週出台進一步的財政刺激措施。

歐洲• 歐洲聯盟(歐盟)復蘇基金獲得所有成

員國一致批准，未有令人失望。該利好因素在外匯市場上得到充分反映，刺激歐元急升。

• 然而，在股票方面，由於估值已經偏高，MSCI歐洲等歐洲指數的價格走勢相對溫和。儘管上述事態應該會降低該地區的風險溢價，但有關措施的直接影響大多屬於中期性(而非短期性)，因此不大可能很快從盈利預測中反映出來。此外，歐元大幅反彈，對大部分收入來自海外的出口商不利。

• 由於撤回上一輪盈利指引的公司數目創下新高，投資者日後或會關注各經濟體復蘇軌跡的平穩程度，以及管理

層在本業績期對前景的評論。 日本• 在增長動力有限的情況下，日本股市

的表現落後於全球股市，7月在窄幅波動，且繼續有投資者有興趣換馬購入增長潛力較高的中小型股票。今月，東京因病毒感染病例復增而提高了警戒級別，令投資情緒受壓，風險胃納降低。

• 短期內，我們預計市場將因情緒低迷而進一步整固，原因是市場持續關注新冠病毒疫情復熾、中美緊張關係加劇，以及預計2020年第一季度業績期的盈利指引下調。市場應會注視日本企業首個全年度的業績指引及展望聲明，因為在此之前的2019財政年度報告期內，由於新冠病毒疫情令盈利狀況不明，日本企業並無發表有關指引。

• 總體而言，東證指數2021財政年度的估計遠期市盈率(PER)為16至17倍，似乎已經反映了經濟復蘇的利好因素，但強勁的市場流動性可能會繼續推高估值。在當前溫和增長的環境下，市場的普遍預測仍趨於樂觀，因此我們傾向於分階段累積優質股。

亞洲(日本除外）• 繼6月份強勁反彈之後， MSCI亞洲(日本

除外)指數於7月份連續第二個月上升。• 但是，正如印度儲備銀行最新的《金融

穩定報告》所述，新冠病毒疫情帶來的影響繼續對金融系統造成壓力。該報告指出，所有商業銀行的總不良貸款率可能從2020年3月的8.5%增至明年3月的12.5%到14.7%。

• 新加坡房地產投資信託為新加坡的業績期揭開序幕。物流和數據中心行業的堅穩走勢得到印證，而零售和酒店房地產投資信託的表現則乏善足陳。然而，就零售業而言，營運數據令人感到樂觀，市郊購物商場的出租率和租金僅輕微下降。不出所料，新加坡的資產估值亦出現了中低個位數的減值，主要是由於租金估算有所下調。

• 令市場感到驚訝的是，新加坡金融管理局(MAS)宣布，要求總部設在新加坡的當地註冊銀行將其2020財政年度的每股總股息(DPS)上限設定於2019財政年度水平的60％，並向股東提供以股代息的選擇。儘管當局今年為銀行業最新設定的股息上限令投資者感到失望，但對謹慎使用資本的規定，大致上符合全球各地監管機構在新冠病毒疫情期間採取的審慎態度。我們認為，儘管有上述最新事態，但與歐洲銀行比較，新加坡銀行受到的約束仍然相對較少。

中國• 2020年第二季度的宏觀數據顯示，中

國經濟繼續復蘇，其中基建和房地產活動勝於預期。儘管零售總值增長仍處於負區間，但線上零售的強勁勢頭保持不變。2020年第二季度的反彈，可能會減弱政府在短期內加大政策扶持力度的誘因，但我們認為下調政策利率的可能性仍然存在。

• 7月份，在岸A股市場跑贏離岸中國股票、香港及亞洲(日本除外)股市。我們將中國A股市場的強勁表現與上一次在2014-15年度的升勢進行比較，認為當前形勢相對健康，總體槓桿控制得當，而貨幣寬鬆政策更有針對性，也更加嚴謹。我們認為，政府將準備在必要時介入，防止「2015年的升市」

重演。• 以目前的水平來看，MSCI中國指數的

市盈率估值似乎偏高，較歷史平均水平高出+2個標準差水平。恆生科技指數的推出對市場情緒帶來利好影響，預計追蹤恆生科技指數的交易所買賣基金(ETF)的推出，將吸引被動資金流入這個市場。

• 除了估值偏高外，中美緊張關係復現以及2020年第二季度業績可能令人失望，因此市場的波動勢必加劇，而且容易受到整固和獲利回吐的影響。備受矚目的美中緊張局勢將令短期的不確定性加劇，這仍然是我們對中國股市最大的擔憂。

% 2019 2020 2021

發達市場 1.7 -5.5 4.4 美國 2.3 -5.1 4.4 歐元區 1.2 -7.9 5.5 日本 0.8 -3.6 3.0新興市場 3.6 0.0 6.0 中國 6.1 1.6 7.0 亞洲其他地區 4.9 0.7 7.5全球 2.9 -2.2 5.4

全球經濟增長前景

資料來源：新加坡銀行

有些疫苗的作用是觸發免疫系統進行對抗，而非預防感染，而其他疫苗則

無法透過殺滅病毒來提供免疫力(即產生中和抗體，阻止病毒進入細胞)。

ELI LEE新加坡銀行投資策略主管

股市 香港 ／中國市場前景 05

香港/中國市場前景

美中緊張局勢升溫令不確定性加劇

除了估值偏高外，中美緊張關係復現以及2020年第二季度業績可能令人失望，因此市場的波動勢必加劇，而且容易受到整固和獲利回吐的影響。備受矚目的美中緊張局勢將令短期的不確定性加劇，這仍然是我們對中國股市最大的擔憂。

• 第二季度的宏觀數據顯示，中國經濟繼續復蘇，其中基建和房地產活動勝於預期。儘管零售總值增長仍處於負區間，但線上零售的強勁勢頭保持不變。2020年第二季度的反彈，可能會減弱政府在短期內加大政策扶持力度的誘因，但我們認為下調政策利率的可能性仍然存在。

• 股票方面，由於我們已擺脫新冠病毒疫情帶來的衰退並進入下一個擴張週期，我們認為長期風險回報將趨於穩健，因此在資產配置策略中維持中性的股票持倉。

• 然而，鑑於估值已大致反映經濟至2021年為止的初步復蘇，加上疫情再次爆發、美國大選和美中地緣政局等重大風險隱約可見，我們認為短期內股票波動的風險將高於平均水平。

• 我們認為，儘管投資者將需要維持在科技和醫療保健等增長行業的核心持倉，但現在正是重新平衡投資組合的恰當時機，沽出股價已大幅領先的增長股和動力股，轉而購入資產負債表穩健且業務模式穩定的週期股和價值股，原因是該等股票有望受惠於長期經濟復蘇。

美國• 對2020年第二季度業績期，市場普遍

預期標準普爾500指數的每股盈利將按年急挫42%。

• 數碼趨勢方興未艾及低利率環境，均是帶動美國增長股由年初至今取得強勁表現的利好因素。但是，市場集中度創下新高，對綜合指數表現構成風險。超大型科技股佔指數的權重異常

巨大，可能會導致標準普爾500指數容易受到行業或企業的非系統性風險衝擊。

• 我們認為，從增長股換馬至價值股/週期股的潛在催化因素包括：

(a) 美國的新增新冠病毒病例減少及疫苗開發取得進展；

(b) 受不利影響的行業受惠於盈利向上修訂；及

(c) 政府將於未來幾週出台進一步的財政刺激措施。

歐洲• 歐洲聯盟(歐盟)復蘇基金獲得所有成

員國一致批准，未有令人失望。該利好因素在外匯市場上得到充分反映，刺激歐元急升。

• 然而，在股票方面，由於估值已經偏高，MSCI歐洲等歐洲指數的價格走勢相對溫和。儘管上述事態應該會降低該地區的風險溢價，但有關措施的直接影響大多屬於中期性(而非短期性)，因此不大可能很快從盈利預測中反映出來。此外，歐元大幅反彈，對大部分收入來自海外的出口商不利。

• 由於撤回上一輪盈利指引的公司數目創下新高，投資者日後或會關注各經濟體復蘇軌跡的平穩程度，以及管理

層在本業績期對前景的評論。 日本• 在增長動力有限的情況下，日本股市

的表現落後於全球股市，7月在窄幅波動，且繼續有投資者有興趣換馬購入增長潛力較高的中小型股票。今月，東京因病毒感染病例復增而提高了警戒級別，令投資情緒受壓，風險胃納降低。

• 短期內，我們預計市場將因情緒低迷而進一步整固，原因是市場持續關注新冠病毒疫情復熾、中美緊張關係加劇，以及預計2020年第一季度業績期的盈利指引下調。市場應會注視日本企業首個全年度的業績指引及展望聲明，因為在此之前的2019財政年度報告期內，由於新冠病毒疫情令盈利狀況不明，日本企業並無發表有關指引。

• 總體而言，東證指數2021財政年度的估計遠期市盈率(PER)為16至17倍，似乎已經反映了經濟復蘇的利好因素，但強勁的市場流動性可能會繼續推高估值。在當前溫和增長的環境下，市場的普遍預測仍趨於樂觀，因此我們傾向於分階段累積優質股。

亞洲(日本除外）• 繼6月份強勁反彈之後， MSCI亞洲(日本

除外)指數於7月份連續第二個月上升。• 但是，正如印度儲備銀行最新的《金融

穩定報告》所述，新冠病毒疫情帶來的影響繼續對金融系統造成壓力。該報告指出，所有商業銀行的總不良貸款率可能從2020年3月的8.5%增至明年3月的12.5%到14.7%。

• 新加坡房地產投資信託為新加坡的業績期揭開序幕。物流和數據中心行業的堅穩走勢得到印證，而零售和酒店房地產投資信託的表現則乏善足陳。然而，就零售業而言，營運數據令人感到樂觀，市郊購物商場的出租率和租金僅輕微下降。不出所料，新加坡的資產估值亦出現了中低個位數的減值，主要是由於租金估算有所下調。

• 令市場感到驚訝的是，新加坡金融管理局(MAS)宣布，要求總部設在新加坡的當地註冊銀行將其2020財政年度的每股總股息(DPS)上限設定於2019財政年度水平的60％，並向股東提供以股代息的選擇。儘管當局今年為銀行業最新設定的股息上限令投資者感到失望，但對謹慎使用資本的規定，大致上符合全球各地監管機構在新冠病毒疫情期間採取的審慎態度。我們認為，儘管有上述最新事態，但與歐洲銀行比較，新加坡銀行受到的約束仍然相對較少。

中國• 2020年第二季度的宏觀數據顯示，中

國經濟繼續復蘇，其中基建和房地產活動勝於預期。儘管零售總值增長仍處於負區間，但線上零售的強勁勢頭保持不變。2020年第二季度的反彈，可能會減弱政府在短期內加大政策扶持力度的誘因，但我們認為下調政策利率的可能性仍然存在。

• 7月份，在岸A股市場跑贏離岸中國股票、香港及亞洲(日本除外)股市。我們將中國A股市場的強勁表現與上一次在2014-15年度的升勢進行比較，認為當前形勢相對健康，總體槓桿控制得當，而貨幣寬鬆政策更有針對性，也更加嚴謹。我們認為，政府將準備在必要時介入，防止「2015年的升市」

重演。• 以目前的水平來看，MSCI中國指數的

市盈率估值似乎偏高，較歷史平均水平高出+2個標準差水平。恆生科技指數的推出對市場情緒帶來利好影響，預計追蹤恆生科技指數的交易所買賣基金(ETF)的推出，將吸引被動資金流入這個市場。

• 除了估值偏高外，中美緊張關係復現以及2020年第二季度業績可能令人失望，因此市場的波動勢必加劇，而且容易受到整固和獲利回吐的影響。備受矚目的美中緊張局勢將令短期的不確定性加劇，這仍然是我們對中國股市最大的擔憂。

附註：圖表顯示主要股票指數按當前價格及下個財政年度一般盈利預測計算的遠期市盈率與其各自的10年歷史高位及低位，以及與其10年歷史平均值上下一個標準差對應的水平。

資料來源：彭博、MSCI、新加坡銀行；截至2020年8月2日

• 7月份，在岸A股(CSI300)市場跑贏離岸中國股票、香港及亞洲（日本除外）股市。我們將中國A股市場的強勁表現與上一次在2014-15年度的升勢進行比較，認為當前形勢相對「健康」，總體槓桿控制得當，貨幣寬鬆政策更有針對性，也更嚴謹。我們認為，政府將準備在必要時介入，防止「2015年的升市」重演。

• 以目前的水平來看，MSCI中國指數的市盈率估值似乎偏高，較歷史平均水平高出+2個標準差水平。恆生科技指數的推出對市場情緒帶來利好影響，預計追蹤恆生科技指數的交易所買賣基金(ETF)的推出，將吸引被動資金流入這個市場。除了估值偏高外，中美緊張關係復現以及2020年第二季度業績可能令人失望，因此市場的波動勢必加劇，而且容易受到整固和獲利回吐的影響。備受矚目的美中緊張局勢將令短期的不確定性加劇，這仍然是我們對中國股市最大的擔憂。

• 如果地緣政治緊張局勢升級，A股市場的處境將比離岸中國股票市場為佳。我們建議投資者採用槓鈴策略，專注於估值合理的增長股和受益於週期性增長潛力的市場領導者。任何整固將是一次趁低吸納的機會。

• 除了之前強調的投資主題外，我們看好表現落後，但可能受惠於週期性增長潛力的市場領導者。在基建固定資產投資(FAI)保持堅穩且房地產固定資產投資增長加快的情況下，我們認為基建和建築相關行業，例如建築機械和材料行業也將受惠於週期性的上升趨勢。

• 我們亦看好澳門博彩業(在加強隔離規定的情況下，該股類將提供戰術性買賣機會)、中國保險業(業務活動將逐步恢復)，以及嚴選的若干中國房地產發展商。儘管我們繼續傾向於以線上業務日增的企業作為投資主題，但許多股票的股價已逼近我們估計的公允價值，我們建議投資者趁低吸納。

股票估值已大致反映經濟至2021年為止的初步復蘇

按來年盈利計算的市盈率22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6世界

10年高位

10年低位

當前水平

+1 標準差

-1 標準差

新興市場 美國 歐洲 亞洲(日本除外) 日本

債券

華素梅農華僑銀行執行董事，投資策略(新加坡財富管理）

繼續看好新興市場高收益債券

第二波新冠病毒疫情對全球經濟復蘇的衝擊程度，仍然是公司債券市場面臨的最大風險。

• 在美聯儲的政策支持下，全球公司債券連續第三個月暴漲。新興市場公司債券上升2.2%，高收益債券上升2.3%，而投資級債券則上升2.1%。在發達市場中，投資級債券上升3.1%，而美國高收益債券則上升4.4%。

新興市場利差大幅擴大• 7月份新興市場高收益債券的利差收窄

了26個基點(bps)至+630個基點，已收回自3月23日以來60%的失地。同時，新興市場投資級債券的利差收窄了20個基點至+270個基點，但仍拋離新冠病毒疫情之前的+190個基點甚遠。

技術因素隨資金流入增加而改善• 在截至7月29日的一週中，新興市場

債券錄得1.8億美元的資金淨流入，前兩週分別有12.2億美元及18.9億美元流入。儘管最近的數據較為樂觀，但2020年仍錄得474億美元的資金流出。然而，硬貨幣債券的資金流出遠

遠較少，僅佔總額的71億美元。

看好亞洲高收益債券• 我們繼續增持亞洲高收益債券，尤其

是中國高收益房地產債券。7月份，中國高收益債券的表現優於投資級債券，反映中國經濟重啟、房地產銷售持續復蘇、中央銀行刺激措施帶來充裕市場流動性等因素所引發的樂觀情緒。中國投資級債券和高收益債券之間的信用利差從6月底的671個基點收窄至587個基點，而年初時為473個基點。這意味著中國高收益債券的相對價值仍然較好。充裕的市場流動性也降低了高收益債券發行人的主要風險—再融資風險。在該等因素支持下，我們維持對中國高收益房地產行業的增持建議。

• 考慮到中美關係被視為贏取選票的策略，我們知道隨著今年11月美國總統大選臨近，下一季度的不確定性將會加劇。兩國之間衝突升級，可能引致

市場大幅波動，中國高收益債券尤其如此。因此，我們看好優質高收益債券，但鑑於高收益債券已從3月份低位顯著回升(相對投資級債券)，投資者在選擇高收益債券方面應比以往更為嚴格。

維持高收益債券的增持評級及對投資級債券的中性持倉• 1我們維持對新興市場高收益債券的

增持立場，以及對新興市場投資級債券的中性立場。然而，鑑於未來數月的經濟和政治噪音可能會不時令市場波動加劇，我們將聚焦貝塔系數較低的「BB」級債券。

• 最近數月，高收益債券表現優於大市，原因是市場已把注意力從最惡劣情況下的肥尾後果，轉向在聯儲局主導下，市場重開及央行不斷提供支持所帶來的較佳經濟數據。只要主要市場的疫情沒有顯著反彈，我們預計此趨勢在未來數月將會持續。

• 第二季度的宏觀數據顯示，中國經濟繼續復蘇，其中基建和房地產活動勝於預期。儘管零售總值增長仍處於負區間，但線上零售的強勁勢頭保持不變。2020年第二季度的反彈，可能會減弱政府在短期內加大政策扶持力度的誘因，但我們認為下調政策利率的可能性仍然存在。

06 香港 ／中國市場前景 債券

• 7月份，在岸A股(CSI300)市場跑贏離岸中國股票、香港及亞洲（日本除外）股市。我們將中國A股市場的強勁表現與上一次在2014-15年度的升勢進行比較，認為當前形勢相對「健康」，總體槓桿控制得當，貨幣寬鬆政策更有針對性，也更嚴謹。我們認為，政府將準備在必要時介入，防止「2015年的升市」重演。

• 以目前的水平來看，MSCI中國指數的市盈率估值似乎偏高，較歷史平均水平高出+2個標準差水平。恆生科技指數的推出對市場情緒帶來利好影響，預計追蹤恆生科技指數的交易所買賣基金(ETF)的推出，將吸引被動資金流入這個市場。除了估值偏高外，中美緊張關係復現以及2020年第二季度業績可能令人失望，因此市場的波動勢必加劇，而且容易受到整固和獲利回吐的影響。備受矚目的美中緊張局勢將令短期的不確定性加劇，這仍然是我們對中國股市最大的擔憂。

• 如果地緣政治緊張局勢升級，A股市場的處境將比離岸中國股票市場為佳。我們建議投資者採用槓鈴策略，專注於估值合理的增長股和受益於週期性增長潛力的市場領導者。任何整固將是一次趁低吸納的機會。

• 除了之前強調的投資主題外，我們看好表現落後，但可能受惠於週期性增長潛力的市場領導者。在基建固定資產投資(FAI)保持堅穩且房地產固定資產投資增長加快的情況下，我們認為基建和建築相關行業，例如建築機械和材料行業也將受惠於週期性的上升趨勢。

• 我們亦看好澳門博彩業(在加強隔離規定的情況下，該股類將提供戰術性買賣機會)、中國保險業(業務活動將逐步恢復)，以及嚴選的若干中國房地產發展商。儘管我們繼續傾向於以線上業務日增的企業作為投資主題，但許多股票的股價已逼近我們估計的公允價值，我們建議投資者趁低吸納。

華素梅農華僑銀行執行董事，投資策略(新加坡財富管理）

外匯及商品

07外匯及商品

金價將長期居高不下

在利率接近零和市場憂慮貨幣貶值的情況下，央行有可能試圖透過通脹來消除債務負擔，這意味著黃金將仍然是具吸引力的避險資產。

石油• 我們將布倫特原油的12個月目標價格

從之前的45美元/桶上調至50美元/桶。由於另一波疫情及北美原油恢復供應可能會壓抑油價情緒，油價波動可能還會持續較長一段時間。當美國的夏季駕駛季節來臨，石油需求通常會急劇上升，庫存通常會下降。但此時汽油和餾分油庫存反而增加，令我們警醒油價易升難跌的日子已一去不返了。這個情況在石油輸出國組織+聯盟(包括石油輸出國組織成員國及多個不屬於石油輸出國組織的石油出口大國)準備於8月份放棄空前的減產行動時出現。但是，油價的任何弱勢可能都是暫時的。

貨幣• 過去四週，美元出現更廣泛的跌勢，

目前沒有辦法可以遏止。美元可能出現非典型逐險/避險動態所能解釋的廣泛跌勢。

• 短期來看，美國的疫情仍然嚴峻，這對美元而言是一項不利因素。美國經濟得到的財政政策支持存在不確定性，亦對美元構成壓力，甚或對美元構成結構性負面影響。同時，聯儲局採取溫和立場，意味著美國國庫券收益率將被壓低，因而進一步損害美元的息差優勢。

• 因此，美元的負面因素顯而易見。問題是，現在每個人都坐上同一條船，

• 我們預計石油需求將繼續攀升，如果國際貿易恢復，明年的增長可能會超出預期。此外，石油輸出國組織+聯盟可能繼續嚴格遵守協議，因而為油價帶來支持，而全球各地的鑽探活動將繼續急劇減少，直至油價開始升越50美元/桶為止。

黃金• 今年，黃金的表現已經優於其他儲備

貨幣，例如美元(USD)、日元(JPY)、歐元(EUR)和瑞士法郎(CHF)。在利率接近零和市場憂慮貨幣貶值的情況下，央行可能試圖透過通脹來消除債務負擔，應會使黃金繼續成為首選的「避險」資產。

• 美國的實際收益率下降，為黃金提供有力支持。這將局限金價的調整空間，令黃金繼續成為相對其他傳統「安全資產」(如政府債券)的首選「避險」資產，原因是在美國利率接近零，且沒有跡象可見聯儲局打算將利率降至負區間之時，名義收益率下降所帶來的好處大部分已經耗盡。

• 黃金的升勢亦顯示，央行擴大資產負債表規模，引發了對貨幣貶值的憂慮。黃金並沒有美元、日元、歐元或瑞士法郎等其他「避險」貨幣的相對負面性質，因為央行可以印鈔，但無法印製黃金。

而美元價格走勢看來開始超出限度，因而為美元提供了反彈空間。特別是，主要貨幣兌美元匯率已達到關鍵的支持/阻力位，當投資者獲利回吐，任何疲軟的跡象可能迅速觸發美元走強。

• 在亞洲，美元的廣泛弱勢意味著亞洲貨幣兌美元走強。但是，我們亦看到若干支撐美元兌亞洲貨幣的因素。短期內，中美緊張局勢以及美元兌人民幣與若干美元—亞洲貨幣對之間的密切關係，可能會為美元兌亞洲貨幣提供支持。

• 流入亞洲的投資組合資金亦已放緩。此外，我們注意到相對美國和歐洲，

亞洲總體經濟格局(中國除外)持續疲軟。這點亦應會局限亞洲貨幣的升值空間。

• 在新加坡元(SGD)方面，即使美元/新加 坡 元 跌 破 支 持 位 ， 新 加 坡 元 的NEER(名義有效匯率)仍維持在同等水平。這點顯示，美元/新加坡元下跌並非受到國內利好新加坡元的因素推動，而是反映美元較廣泛的弱勢。

• 值 得 注 意 的 是 ， 美 元 /新 加 坡 元 與DXY(美元)指數之間的相關性亦很緊密。因此，我們不排除美元/新加坡元進一步下跌的可能，尤其是如果美元繼續全面下滑。

李若凡華僑永亨銀行財資處全球資金研究經濟師

專題

香港復蘇仍前路漫漫

儘管跌幅已由第一季度向下修訂的按年下跌9.1%略為收窄，但香港第二季度的GDP仍按年下跌9.0%，幅度令人詫異。在新冠病毒疫情下，私人消費(即使有積壓的需求及紓困措施，仍按年下降14.5%，為有記錄以來最大跌幅)、固定投資(按年下降20.6%，為自1999年第二季度以來最差劣的表現)和服務出口(按年下降46.6%，創下新低)仍然是拖累經濟的主要因素。貨物出口成為一個亮點，跌幅從第一季度的按年下降9.7%收窄至第二季度的按年下降2.1％。這可歸因於5月以來全球經濟重啟以及中國經濟復蘇。踏入第三季度後，新冠病毒疫情的反彈勢必令復蘇情況變得複雜。由於政府採取了自疫情爆發以來最嚴格的抗疫措施，大部分經濟活動已跡近停頓，本地消費、固定投資和服務出口可能仍處於下降趨勢。從積極的方面來看，考慮到低基數效應及其他主要經濟體的良性復蘇，第三季度的經濟收縮可能會繼續收窄。總而言之，視乎疫情發展而定，我們預計GDP將下降6%至7%。

• 香港經濟連續第四個季度萎縮，第二季度按年收縮9%，遜於預期，但跌幅已由第一季度向下修訂的按年下跌9.1%略為收窄。此外，季節性調整後按季(qoq)增長收縮0.1%，跌幅亦小於第一季度。

• 拉近來看，由於失業率惡化、工資前景疲弱和實施社交距離措施，第二季度的私人消費跌幅擴大至按年下跌14.5％的紀錄水平。這些情況反映，新增感染病例減少、積壓的需求、紓困措施，以及股市和樓市上升帶來的正面財富效應，並沒有徹底扭轉本地消費的弱勢。

• 更糟糕的是，由於疫情的持續影響和

嚴峻的經濟前景，企業信心仍然疲軟，固定投資按年下降20.6%，為自1999年第二季度以來的最大跌幅。

• 外圍方面，由於旅遊限制從3月下旬開始 收 緊 ， 服 務 出 口 創 下 按 年 下 跌46.6%的紀錄。相比之下，貨物出口成為一個亮點，跌幅從第一季度的按年下降9.7％收窄至第二季度的按年下降2.1％。這可歸因於自5月以來的全球經濟重啟以及中國經濟復蘇。

• 踏入第三季度後，新冠病毒疫情的反彈更加凸顯一個事實：復蘇之路將崎嶇不平。由於政府採取了自疫情爆發以來最嚴格的抗疫措施，大部分經濟活動已跡近停頓，新一波的破產和裁

員潮可能出現，特別是在受衝擊最嚴重的行業，包括餐飲、旅遊、零售和酒店業。我們預計整體失業率(第二季度為6.2%)將進一步攀升至7%。同時，由於疫情反彈，本地消費、固定投資和服務出口可能仍處於下降趨勢。

• 從積極的方面來看，考慮到低基數效應及主要經濟體的良性復蘇，第二季度的經濟收縮可能會繼續收窄。至於第四季度，其前景將主要取決於疫情的發展。總而言之，在假設會有更多紓困措施使受損的經濟不再下滑，我們預測2020年的本港經濟將倒退6%。但是，如果疫情繼續惡化，則經濟仍會有進一步下行的可能。

08 專題

免責聲明「全球前景」、「香港／中國市場前景」及「股市」部分內列明的資訊及／或表達的意見由新加坡銀行(「資料供應商」)根據認為可靠之資料來源所編製及提供。「債券」及「外匯及商品」部分內列明的資訊及／或表達的意見由華僑銀行(「資料供應商」)根據認為可靠之資料來源所編製及提供。華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司沒有參與編製有關資訊及／或意見。華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司及有關的資料供應商對該等資訊及意見之準確性或完整性並無作出任何申述亦不承擔任何責任，並不會就任何人因依賴該等資訊及／或意見而引致的任何損害或損失承擔任何責任(包括侵權行為責任、合約責任或任何其他責任)。在本文件內由第三方表達的任何意見或觀點是屬於該第三方，並非華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司的意見或觀點。本文件中提供的資訊僅供參考之用。它的內容並沒有考慮任何個別人士的特定投資目標、財務狀況或特殊需要。本文件的內容不構成、不擬作為亦不應被理解為任何專業或投資意見、或買賣或認購任何證券或金融產品或進行任何交易或建立任何法律關係或參與任何交易或投資策略的建議、要約、招攬、邀請或誘使。閣下應謹慎投資。 閣下應獨立評估每一投資產品及就本身的個別投資目標、投資經驗、財政狀況及/或特殊需要，衡量自己是否適合參與任何投資產品。如閣下對本文件的內容及/或本文件所提及的投資產品的適合性有任何疑問，請在進行任何投資決定前尋求有關的專業人士就財政、法律及/或稅務的獨立意見。本文件內的資訊及意見是根據認為可靠之資料來源所編製但華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司沒有核實本文件內所提供的資訊及意見。華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司及有關的資料供應商就本文件所提供的資訊(包括但不限於任何陳述、數字、觀點、意見、估算或預測)不會作出任何保證(包括但不限於其準確性、實用性、恰當性、可靠性、及時性或完整性)，故不應藉以依賴。華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司及有關的資料供應商可能曾發表與本文件內容觀點不同的其他報告、分析或文件。華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司及有關的資料供應商並無責任更新該等資訊或改正任何其後顯現之錯誤，並就此不承擔任何責任。本文件中所提供的所有資訊可隨時變更，恕不另行通知。華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司及有關的資料供應商，及其各自的董事、職員、僱員和代理人不會對任何人士因直接或間接使用本文件而引致的任何損失或損害負責。投資涉及風險。閣下應注意投資的價值可升可跌。本文件提供的資料可能包含對於國家、資產、市場或公司的未來事件或表現作出預測或其他前瞻性陳述，然而實際事件或結果可能大不相同。過往的表現並不一定預示未來有類似的表現。在本文件中提及的任何特定公司、金融產品或資產類別只用作說明用途，並不構成投資建議。本文件並不擬指出本文件內提及之證券或投資項目可能涉及的所有風險。如有興趣投資任何投資產品，客戶應閱讀有關要約文件的風險披露及條款及條件。若分發或使用本文件所載資訊違反任何管轄區或國家的法律或規例，則本文件所載資訊不得為任何人或實體在該管轄區或國家分發或使用，無論如何僅供收件人使用。華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司亦無就提供本文件收取獨立費用。除非獲得華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司的事先書面同意，否則本文件的內容不得以其他方式轉載、分發或傳送予任何其他人士，或以任何方式納入另一文件或其他材料中以作其他用途。華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司及其聯繫公司可以其名義買賣，可能有包銷或有持倉於所有或任何於本文件中提及的證券或投資項目。華僑永亨銀行股份有限公司及其聯繫公司可能就其於本文件所提及的所有或任何證券或投資專案的交易收取經紀佣金或費用。華僑銀行及其個別聯號及關聯公司，以及這些公司的個別董事與高層人員﹝簡稱 相關人士﹞在此報告中所述之證券或所提到之發行人中可能享有未來權益，並可能為此報告所提及之證券公司及其它各方提供或尋求提供經紀及投資或證券相關服務。華僑銀行及其相關人士亦可能就所提及之投資產品供應商有聯繫及收取費用。此免責聲明的條款及條件受中華人民共和國澳門特別行政區的法律管轄並據此解釋。此文件未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會審閱。如果閣下對於本文件的任何資訊或意見有任何疑問，閣下應該尋求專業人士意見。若本文件以電子傳送方式(例如電子郵件)分發，則不能保證傳送過程安全無誤，資訊有可能被攔截、毀壞、遺失、破壞、送達延誤、不完整或含有病毒。寄件人對本文件內容經由電子傳送所出現的任何錯誤或遺漏概不負責(在法律許可的範圍內)。如需核實，請索取印刷版本。

Markets at Crossroads

MONTHLY OUTLOOKAugust 2020

02

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IN THIS ISSUE

IN THIS ISSUE

The OCBC Wealth Panel draws on the collective expertise and experience of wealth management experts from the OCBC Group, namely OCBC Bank, OCBC Investment Research, Lion Global Investors and Bank of Singapore. With over 200 years of collective investment experience, the OCBC Wealth Panel is dedicated to provide timely advisory services to grow, manage and protect your wealth.

Rebound Amid Continued Uncertainty

Maintain Neutral Position

Escalating US-China Tensions Adds to Uncertainties

Still Positive on EM High Yield

Higher for Longer Gold Prices

GLOBAL OUTLOOK

EQUITIES

HONG KONG / CHINA MARKET OUTLOOK

BONDS

FX & COMMODITIES

P 04-05

P 06-07

P 08

P 09

P 10

Hong Kong’s Recovery Remains A Long Way O�

SPECIALS

P 11

About the OCBC Wealth Panel

The path ahead remains highly uncertain. Di�culties in controlling the renewed spread of Covid-19 have cast doubt on the pace of economic recovery.

More positively, con�dence in Europe’s recovery has been reinforced by an agreement over the €750 billion Recovery Fund.

Overall, the pace of economic recovery worldwide is set to become more uneven after the initial surge that followed the easing of lockdowns. China now seems likely to record positive Gross domestic product (GDP)growth for the full 2020 year, while Europe is set to contract by 7.9% and the US by 5.1%, both slightly worse than previously expected. As a result, world GDP is set to fall 2.2% in 2020, with the improved outlook for China accounting for an upward revision from last month’s forecast of -2.5% global GDP growth.

Reduced policy support and, in some cases, renewed outbreaks of Covid-19 will undermine momentum. In many developed economies, activity will not return to pre-crisis levels until late in 2021 or 2022. As a result, policymakers are likely to proceed with caution when attempting to unwind policy support measures.

Markets at Crossroads

03

ELI LEEHead of Investment Strategy, Bank of Singapore

Rebound Amid Continued Uncertainty

GLOBAL OUTLOOK

“The recession is o�cially over, as restrictions ease and economic activity picks up, but business conditions are likely to remain very di�cult.”

• While we believe the low of the cycle is behind us, a full recovery to pre-Covid-19 levels of output will not happen until 2022.

• China now seems likely to record positive GDP growth for the full 2020 year, while Europe is set to contract by 7.9% and the US by 5.1%, both slightly worse than previously expected. As a result, world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is set to fall 2.2% in 2020, with the improved outlook for China accounting for an upward revision from last month’s forecast of -2.5% global GDP growth.

• After widespread shutdowns in Q2 2020, we should not be surprised that simply turning the lights on again resulted in an initial sharp spike of growth from an extremely low base. The danger lies in extrapolating this initial sharp bounce to a complete V-shaped recovery. The path of the global recovery remains highly uncertain and heavily dependent on ongoing policy support.

• Reduced policy support and, in some cases, renewed outbreaks of Covid-19 will undermine momentum. In many developed economies, activity will not return to pre-crisis levels until late in 2021 or 2022. As a result, policymakers are likely to proceed with caution

when attempting to unwind policy support measures.

• Overall, the pace of economic recovery worldwide is set to become more uneven after the initial surge that followed the easing of lockdowns.

Growth momentum plateauing• In our base case, the reality of a

drawn-out recovery process will be uneasy with the optimism in markets today, and already we are beginning to see signs of growth momentum plateauing.

• In the US labour market, after 15 weeks of consecutive declines in initial jobless claims numbers, from its peak in March at 6.9 million to 1.3 million, the �gure has turned and increased in the two weeks to 24 July. Of note, the Conference Board Consumer Con�dence index also fell in July, to 92.6 after three consecutive months of increase to 98.3 in June.

• Even in China, which is more advanced in the process of controlling the pandemic, high frequency monitors suggest that the pace of normalisation in activity is moderating. This should not be surprising, given that global economic weakness is posing a signi�cant headwind for China, for which international trade and exports

are major economic components.

Rising infection trends unlikely to lead to widespread shutdowns• The recovery momentum has been

hindered by rising infection rates in various hotspots. In the US, the good news is that the rate of new cases has started to decline.

• We do not expect US policymakers to return to widespread lockdowns, given reduced political will and a more subdued death rate due to the lower average age of those infected.

• In the absence of an e�ective vaccine however, the threat of subsequent waves of infection will continue to loom large. This continues to a�ect the pace of re-opening and negatively impact consumer and investor con�dence.

Wide-ranging stimulus to remain• At the July Federal Open Market

Committee meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated their “whatever it takes” stance to support the recovery.

• The Fed also extended seven of this year’s crisis programmes, including the Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit programmes and the Paycheque Protection Programme Liquidity Facility, all due to expire over

04 GLOBAL OUTLOOK

September to end-December.• In 2H 2020, we further expect the Fed

to further strengthen their commitment to keeping rates at near-zero levels, using an ‘average in�ation targeting’ framework which e�ectively represents a further easing in US monetary policy.

• On the �scal side, coming on the heels of the historic €750 billion stimulus passed in the European Union, we expect another US �scal package soon.

Vaccine race gathers momentum • The successful eventual release of

Covid-19 treatments should limit the long term impact of the virus on global growth.

• As we move through the second half of 2020, scientists around the world are racing against time to overcome the overwhelming Covid-19 related hurdles that stand in the way of a full

re-opening of the global economy.• At the end of July, there were at least

139 candidate vaccines in pre-clinical evaluation, and 26 candidate vaccines in the clinical evaluation stage.

• Given the speed of clinical trials progression amid the deepening health crisis, there is limited clarity and alignment at this point from various regulators globally on what constitutes acceptable standards for a

safe and e�ective vaccine. This poses a challenge.

• De�nitions of a successful vaccine can vary as well, given that some vaccines work on triggering the immune system to �ght as opposed to preventing infection, while others do not produce sterilising immunity (production of neutralising antibodies blocking the virus from entering the cells).

• While we believe the low of the cycle is behind us, a full recovery to pre-Covid-19 levels of output will not happen until 2022.

• China now seems likely to record positive GDP growth for the full 2020 year, while Europe is set to contract by 7.9% and the US by 5.1%, both slightly worse than previously expected. As a result, world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is set to fall 2.2% in 2020, with the improved outlook for China accounting for an upward revision from last month’s forecast of -2.5% global GDP growth.

• After widespread shutdowns in Q2 2020, we should not be surprised that simply turning the lights on again resulted in an initial sharp spike of growth from an extremely low base. The danger lies in extrapolating this initial sharp bounce to a complete V-shaped recovery. The path of the global recovery remains highly uncertain and heavily dependent on ongoing policy support.

• Reduced policy support and, in some cases, renewed outbreaks of Covid-19 will undermine momentum. In many developed economies, activity will not return to pre-crisis levels until late in 2021 or 2022. As a result, policymakers are likely to proceed with caution

05GLOBAL OUTLOOK

when attempting to unwind policy support measures.

• Overall, the pace of economic recovery worldwide is set to become more uneven after the initial surge that followed the easing of lockdowns.

Growth momentum plateauing• In our base case, the reality of a

drawn-out recovery process will be uneasy with the optimism in markets today, and already we are beginning to see signs of growth momentum plateauing.

• In the US labour market, after 15 weeks of consecutive declines in initial jobless claims numbers, from its peak in March at 6.9 million to 1.3 million, the �gure has turned and increased in the two weeks to 24 July. Of note, the Conference Board Consumer Con�dence index also fell in July, to 92.6 after three consecutive months of increase to 98.3 in June.

• Even in China, which is more advanced in the process of controlling the pandemic, high frequency monitors suggest that the pace of normalisation in activity is moderating. This should not be surprising, given that global economic weakness is posing a signi�cant headwind for China, for which international trade and exports

are major economic components.

Rising infection trends unlikely to lead to widespread shutdowns• The recovery momentum has been

hindered by rising infection rates in various hotspots. In the US, the good news is that the rate of new cases has started to decline.

• We do not expect US policymakers to return to widespread lockdowns, given reduced political will and a more subdued death rate due to the lower average age of those infected.

• In the absence of an e�ective vaccine however, the threat of subsequent waves of infection will continue to loom large. This continues to a�ect the pace of re-opening and negatively impact consumer and investor con�dence.

Wide-ranging stimulus to remain• At the July Federal Open Market

Committee meeting, the Federal Reserve reiterated their “whatever it takes” stance to support the recovery.

• The Fed also extended seven of this year’s crisis programmes, including the Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit programmes and the Paycheque Protection Programme Liquidity Facility, all due to expire over

September to end-December.• In 2H 2020, we further expect the Fed

to further strengthen their commitment to keeping rates at near-zero levels, using an ‘average in�ation targeting’ framework which e�ectively represents a further easing in US monetary policy.

• On the �scal side, coming on the heels of the historic €750 billion stimulus passed in the European Union, we expect another US �scal package soon.

Vaccine race gathers momentum • The successful eventual release of

Covid-19 treatments should limit the long term impact of the virus on global growth.

• As we move through the second half of 2020, scientists around the world are racing against time to overcome the overwhelming Covid-19 related hurdles that stand in the way of a full

% 2019 2020 2021

Developed Markets 1.7 -5.5 4.4 US 2.3 -5.1 4.4 Eurozone 1.2 -7.9 5.5 Japan 0.8 -3.6 3.0Emerging Markets 3.6 0.0 6.0 China 6.1 1.6 7.0 Rest of Asia 4.9 0.7 7.5World 2.9 -2.2 5.4

Global growth outlook

Source: Bank of Singapore

re-opening of the global economy.• At the end of July, there were at least

139 candidate vaccines in pre-clinical evaluation, and 26 candidate vaccines in the clinical evaluation stage.

• Given the speed of clinical trials progression amid the deepening health crisis, there is limited clarity and alignment at this point from various regulators globally on what constitutes acceptable standards for a

safe and e�ective vaccine. This poses a challenge.

• De�nitions of a successful vaccine can vary as well, given that some vaccines work on triggering the immune system to �ght as opposed to preventing infection, while others do not produce sterilising immunity (production of neutralising antibodies blocking the virus from entering the cells).

ELI LEEHead of Investment Strategy, Bank of Singapore

EQUITIES

06 EQUITIES

• For equities, we see the longer-term risk-reward to be sound as we emerge from the Covid-19 recession and enter the next expansionary cycle, and this underpins our equal weight stance in equities in our asset allocation strategy.

• Over the near term, however, we see the risks of equity volatility to be higher than average, considering that valuations have largely priced in the initial phase of the recovery to 2021, and that major risks related to renewed Covid-19 infections, the US elections and US-China geopolitics loom in the backdrop.

• In our view, while investors will need to maintain core positions in growth sectors such as technology and healthcare, this is an opportune time to rebalance portfolio weights out of growth and momentum stocks that have outperformed dramatically, and move into cyclical and value names with resilient balance sheets and stable business models, as these are expected to bene�t from the long-term economic recovery.

United States• The 2Q2020 reporting season saw

consensus expecting a deep 42% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in earnings per share for the S&P500 index.

• The pull-forward of digital trends, as well as an environment of low rates

provide conducive conditions for the strong year-to-date performance of growth stocks in the US. However, record market concentration represents a risk to aggregate index performance. Exceptionally large index weights of mega-cap technolo-gy names could result in the S&P500 index being susceptible to sector- or company-idiosyncratic shocks.

• In our view, potential catalysts for a rotation from growth to value/ cyclicals include

(a) an abatement in new Covid-19 cases in the US and advances in a vaccine development

(b) positive earnings revision for adversely a�ected sectors, and

(c) further �scal stimulus in coming weeks.

Europe• Europe did not disappoint when all

came together to approve the European Union (EU) Recovery Fund. The approval was amply re�ected in the foreign exchange market with the prompt appreciation of the EUR.

• In equities, however, the price action of European indices such as MSCI Europe has been relatively muted, with the already rich valuations. Though this development should lower the risk premium of the region, the direct impact of the measures is more medium-term in nature (rather

than short-term) and hence is unlikely to be re�ected in earnings forecasts anytime soon. Furthermore, the massive Euro rally would be negative for exporters that derive a signi�cant portion of revenue overseas.

• Looking ahead, investors are likely to focus on how smooth the recovery trajectory will be for various economies, and managements’ commentary on the outlook during this earnings season, after a record number of companies withdrew guidance in the last round of earnings.

Japan• With limited growth drivers, Japan’s

equities trailed its global peers and moved in a tight range for July, with some rotational buying interest continuing in small and mid-cap stocks with higher growth exposure. During the month, the raising of the alert level in Tokyo on renewed viral infection cases weighed on investor sentiment and diminished some of the risk-on appetite.

• Near term, we expect further market consolidation with subdued sentiment, due to ongoing concerns over Covid-19 resurgence, heightened US-China tensions and subdued guidance expected from the 1Q2020 reporting season. Attention should focus on Japanese corporates’ �rst full year guidance and outlook statement,

Maintain Neutral Position

“We continue to maintain our equal-weight position in equities given the risks and uncertainties ahead, even as economic data o�er some support as economies re-open.”

given this was previously put on hold due to dim visibility from the Covid-19 outbreak during the FY2019 reporting period.

• Overall, valuations of the Topix index at 16-17 times forward FY2021E price-to-earnings ratio (PER) level appears to have priced in recovery scenarios, although buoyant market liquidity could continue to lend support to extended valuations. Within the current modest growth environment, we prefer accumulating quality names in stages, given our view that consensus estimates remain on the optimistic end.

Asia ex-Japan• The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index

appreciated for a second consecutive month in July, following a �rm rebound in June.

• However, the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic has continued to exert pressure on the �nancial system, as illustrated by the Reserve Bank of India’s latest Financial Stability Report. It highlighted that the gross non-performing ratio of all commer-cial banks may increase from 8.5% in March 2020 to 12.5-14.7% by March next year.

• S-REITs kickstarted the earnings season in Singapore. What we have seen is an a�rmation of the trend where the logistics and data centre sub-sectors have been resilient, while performance for the retail and hospitality REITs were lacklustre. However, for retail, there is some optimism based on operational data, where occupancy rates and rents have only come o� slightly for the suburban malls. Asset valuations in Singapore have also unsurprisingly seen some impairment by low-to-mid single-digits. This was largely due to rental assumptions being moderated.

• What did come as a surprise to the market was the announcement by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to call for the locally-incorporated

banks headquartered in Singapore to cap their total dividends per share (DPS) for FY2020 at 60% of FY2019’s DPS, and also to o�er shareholders the option of receiving their dividends in scrip instead. While the latest dividend cap for the banking sector is a disappointment for investors this year, mandating prudence on capital usage is largely in line with regulators’ cautious stance globally amid the Covid-19 outbreak. We believe Singapore banks are still relatively less constrained than European banks despite this latest development.

China• 2Q2020 macro data showed economic

activities continuing the path to recovery, with better-than-expected infrastructure and property activities. While headline retail growth was still in negative territory, the robust momentum for online retail sales remained intact. The rebound in 2Q2020 could lower the government’s incentive to ramp up the intensity of policy support in the near term, but we believe the possibility of lowering policy rates remains.

• The onshore A-share market outperformed o�shore China

equities, Hong Kong and Asia ex-Japan in July. Comparing the strong outperformance of the China A-shares market with the previous rally in 2014-15, our view is that the current situation is relatively healthy, with better control in overall leverage and a more targeted and disciplined monetary easing. We believe the government would be ready to step in to pre-empt a replay of the “2015-rally” if needed.

• At current levels, PER valuations of MSCI China index look stretched and are beyond the +2 standard deviation level to historical average. The launch of the Hang Seng TECH Index would be positive for market sentiment and is expected to draw passive fund �ows with the expected launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the HS TECH index.

• Given the stretched valuations, the market is set to be more volatile and vulnerable to consolidation and pro�t taking on the back of renewed US-China tensions and potentially disappointing 2Q2020 results. Multiple headlines on US-China tensions would add to uncertainties in the near-term and this remains our biggest concern for the Chinese equities market.

07EQUITIES

• For equities, we see the longer-term risk-reward to be sound as we emerge from the Covid-19 recession and enter the next expansionary cycle, and this underpins our equal weight stance in equities in our asset allocation strategy.

• Over the near term, however, we see the risks of equity volatility to be higher than average, considering that valuations have largely priced in the initial phase of the recovery to 2021, and that major risks related to renewed Covid-19 infections, the US elections and US-China geopolitics loom in the backdrop.

• In our view, while investors will need to maintain core positions in growth sectors such as technology and healthcare, this is an opportune time to rebalance portfolio weights out of growth and momentum stocks that have outperformed dramatically, and move into cyclical and value names with resilient balance sheets and stable business models, as these are expected to bene�t from the long-term economic recovery.

United States• The 2Q2020 reporting season saw

consensus expecting a deep 42% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in earnings per share for the S&P500 index.

• The pull-forward of digital trends, as well as an environment of low rates

provide conducive conditions for the strong year-to-date performance of growth stocks in the US. However, record market concentration represents a risk to aggregate index performance. Exceptionally large index weights of mega-cap technolo-gy names could result in the S&P500 index being susceptible to sector- or company-idiosyncratic shocks.

• In our view, potential catalysts for a rotation from growth to value/ cyclicals include

(a) an abatement in new Covid-19 cases in the US and advances in a vaccine development

(b) positive earnings revision for adversely a�ected sectors, and

(c) further �scal stimulus in coming weeks.

Europe• Europe did not disappoint when all

came together to approve the European Union (EU) Recovery Fund. The approval was amply re�ected in the foreign exchange market with the prompt appreciation of the EUR.

• In equities, however, the price action of European indices such as MSCI Europe has been relatively muted, with the already rich valuations. Though this development should lower the risk premium of the region, the direct impact of the measures is more medium-term in nature (rather

than short-term) and hence is unlikely to be re�ected in earnings forecasts anytime soon. Furthermore, the massive Euro rally would be negative for exporters that derive a signi�cant portion of revenue overseas.

• Looking ahead, investors are likely to focus on how smooth the recovery trajectory will be for various economies, and managements’ commentary on the outlook during this earnings season, after a record number of companies withdrew guidance in the last round of earnings.

Japan• With limited growth drivers, Japan’s

equities trailed its global peers and moved in a tight range for July, with some rotational buying interest continuing in small and mid-cap stocks with higher growth exposure. During the month, the raising of the alert level in Tokyo on renewed viral infection cases weighed on investor sentiment and diminished some of the risk-on appetite.

• Near term, we expect further market consolidation with subdued sentiment, due to ongoing concerns over Covid-19 resurgence, heightened US-China tensions and subdued guidance expected from the 1Q2020 reporting season. Attention should focus on Japanese corporates’ �rst full year guidance and outlook statement,

given this was previously put on hold due to dim visibility from the Covid-19 outbreak during the FY2019 reporting period.

• Overall, valuations of the Topix index at 16-17 times forward FY2021E price-to-earnings ratio (PER) level appears to have priced in recovery scenarios, although buoyant market liquidity could continue to lend support to extended valuations. Within the current modest growth environment, we prefer accumulating quality names in stages, given our view that consensus estimates remain on the optimistic end.

Asia ex-Japan• The MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index

appreciated for a second consecutive month in July, following a �rm rebound in June.

• However, the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic has continued to exert pressure on the �nancial system, as illustrated by the Reserve Bank of India’s latest Financial Stability Report. It highlighted that the gross non-performing ratio of all commer-cial banks may increase from 8.5% in March 2020 to 12.5-14.7% by March next year.

• S-REITs kickstarted the earnings season in Singapore. What we have seen is an a�rmation of the trend where the logistics and data centre sub-sectors have been resilient, while performance for the retail and hospitality REITs were lacklustre. However, for retail, there is some optimism based on operational data, where occupancy rates and rents have only come o� slightly for the suburban malls. Asset valuations in Singapore have also unsurprisingly seen some impairment by low-to-mid single-digits. This was largely due to rental assumptions being moderated.

• What did come as a surprise to the market was the announcement by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to call for the locally-incorporated

banks headquartered in Singapore to cap their total dividends per share (DPS) for FY2020 at 60% of FY2019’s DPS, and also to o�er shareholders the option of receiving their dividends in scrip instead. While the latest dividend cap for the banking sector is a disappointment for investors this year, mandating prudence on capital usage is largely in line with regulators’ cautious stance globally amid the Covid-19 outbreak. We believe Singapore banks are still relatively less constrained than European banks despite this latest development.

China• 2Q2020 macro data showed economic

activities continuing the path to recovery, with better-than-expected infrastructure and property activities. While headline retail growth was still in negative territory, the robust momentum for online retail sales remained intact. The rebound in 2Q2020 could lower the government’s incentive to ramp up the intensity of policy support in the near term, but we believe the possibility of lowering policy rates remains.

• The onshore A-share market outperformed o�shore China

equities, Hong Kong and Asia ex-Japan in July. Comparing the strong outperformance of the China A-shares market with the previous rally in 2014-15, our view is that the current situation is relatively healthy, with better control in overall leverage and a more targeted and disciplined monetary easing. We believe the government would be ready to step in to pre-empt a replay of the “2015-rally” if needed.

• At current levels, PER valuations of MSCI China index look stretched and are beyond the +2 standard deviation level to historical average. The launch of the Hang Seng TECH Index would be positive for market sentiment and is expected to draw passive fund �ows with the expected launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the HS TECH index.

• Given the stretched valuations, the market is set to be more volatile and vulnerable to consolidation and pro�t taking on the back of renewed US-China tensions and potentially disappointing 2Q2020 results. Multiple headlines on US-China tensions would add to uncertainties in the near-term and this remains our biggest concern for the Chinese equities market.

Equity valuations have largely priced in the initial phase of the recovery to 2021

P/E ratios based on next year’s earnings22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

World

10-year high

10-year low

Current levels

+1 s.d.

-1 s.d.

Emerging Markets US Europe

Asia ex-Japan Japan

Note: Chart shows the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of major equity indices based on current prices and consensus earnings estimates for the next �nancial year, vs. their respective 10-year historical highs and lows, as well as levels corresponding to one standard deviation above and below their 10-year historical averages.Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Bank of Singapore; as at 2 August 2020

ELI LEEHead of Investment Strategy, Bank of Singapore

HONG KONG / CHINA MARKET OUTLOOK 08

HONG KONG / CHINA MARKET OUTLOOK

• 2Q macro data showed economic activities continuing on the path to recovery, with better-than-expected infrastructure and property activities. While headline retail growth was still in negative territory, the robust momentum for online retail sales remained intact. While the rebound in 2Q could lower the government’s incentive to ramp up the intensity of policy support in the near term, we believe the possibility of lowering policy rates remains.

• The onshore A-share (CSI300) market has outperformed o�shore China equities, HK and Asia ex-Japan in July. Comparing the strong outperformance of the China A-shares market with the previous rally in 2014-15, our view is that the current situation is relatively more “healthy”, with better control in overall leverage and a more targeted and disciplined monetary easing. We believe the government would be ready to step in to pre-empt a replay of the “2015-rally” if needed.

• At current levels, PER valuations of MSCI China look stretched and are beyond the +2 s.d. level to historical average. The launch of the Hang Seng TECH Index would be positive for market sentiment and is expected to draw passive fund �ows with the expected launch of exchange-trade funds (ETFs) tracking the HS TECH index. Given the stretched valuations, the market is set to be more volatile and vulnerable to consolidation and pro�t taking on the back of renewed US-China tensions and potentially disappointing 2Q results. Multiple headlines on US-China tensions would add to uncertainties in the near-term and this remains our biggest concern for the Chinese equities market.

• Should geopolitical tensions escalate, the A-shares market would be better positioned than the o�shore Chinese equities markets. We recommend that investors deploy a barbell strategy focusing on reasonably valued growth stocks and market leaders that would bene�t from cyclical growth upside. Any consolidation would be an opportunity to accumulate on a dip.

• In addition to the investment themes highlighted previously, we prefer laggards that are market leaders and could bene�t from cyclical growth upside. With infrastructure �xed asset investment (FAI) remaining solid and property FAI growth accelerating, we believe infrastructure and construction-related sectors, such as construction machinery and materials would also bene�t from the cyclical pick up.

• We also prefer Macau gaming, which would o�er tactical trading opportunities with an uplift of quarantine requirements, China insurance for a gradual recovery, and selective Chinese property developers. While we maintain our preference for rising online engagement as an investment theme, the share prices of many players are approaching our fair value estimates, and we recommend that investors accumulate on dips.

Escalating US-China Tensions Adds to Uncertainties

“Given the stretched valuations, the market is set to be more volatile and vulnerable to consolidation and pro�t taking on the back of renewed US-China tensions and potentially disappointing 2Q results. Multiple headlines on US-China tensions would add to uncertainties in the near-term and this remains our biggest concern for the Chinese equities market.”

VASU MENONExecutive Director, Investment Strategy, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

BONDS

09BONDS

Still Positive on EM High Yield

“The extent to which the second wave of Covid-19 infections adversely impacts the global economic recovery remains the biggest risk facing corporate bond markets.”

• For the third straight month, global corporate bonds rallied strongly, helped by policy support from the Federal Reserve. Emerging Market (EM) corporate bonds was up 2.2%, with High Yield (HY) up 2.3% and Investment Grade (IG) up 2.1%. In Developed Markets (DM), IG rose 3.1% while US HY rose a remarkable 4.4%.

Emerging Market spreads stage big rally• EM HY spreads tightened 26 basis points

(bps) in July and at +630 bps have erased around 60% of the loss since 23 March. Meanwhile, EM IG spreads tightened 20 bps to +270 bps, still well o� the pre-Covid-19 tight of +190 bps.

Technical picture improves with positive in�ows• For the week ending 29 July, EM

bonds recorded net in�ows of US$0.18 billion on top of the US$ 1.22 billion and US$1.89 billion in positive in�ows the previous weeks. Despite the more positive recent numbers, there has still been out�ows of US$47.4 billion during 2020. However, out�ows in hard currency bonds have been much more muted,

accounting for only US$7.1 billion of this total.

Prefer Asian High Yield• We remain overweight in Asian HY,

especially Chinese HY property bonds. During July, Chinese HY outperformed its IG counterparts, re�ecting the optimism from the reopening of China’s economy, continuous recovery in sales for the property development sector, and the abundance of market liquidity from central bank stimulus. The credit spread margins between Chinese IG and HY sector tightened to 587bp from 671bp at end-June. This compares to 473bp at the beginning of the year. It means Chinese HY bonds are still better relative value. The plentiful market liquidity also limits a major risk – re�nancing risk – for HY issuers. These factors continue to support our overweight call for the Chinese HY property sector.

• We acknowledge intensifying uncertainties in the coming quarter as the US presidential election in November this year approaches, given that China-US relations is perceived to be a strategy to win votes. Any escalation of con�ict between the

two countries could cause volatility, more so in Chinese HY bonds. As a result, we prefer quality HY names and investors should become more selective than previously, given the rally of HY bonds verses IG bonds since the March low.

Maintain overweight rating on High Yield and market weight on Investment grade• We are maintaining our overweight

stance on EM HY and neutral stance on EM IG. However, given the potential for periods of higher volatility emanating from both economic and political noise in the coming months, we would focus on the lower-beta “BB” portion of the market.

• HY has outperformed in recent months as the markets have pivoted from focusing on worst-case fat-tail outcomes to better economic data from re-opening of markets and ongoing central bank support, anchored by the Fed. In the absence of a signi�cant recurrence of the pandemic in key markets, we expect this trend to continue in the coming months.

10 FX & COMMODITIES

VASU MENONExecutive Director, Investment Strategy, Wealth Management Singapore, OCBC Bank

FX & COMMODITIES

Higher For Longer Gold Prices

“The possibility of central banks attempting to in�ate away a debt overhang in a world of near-zero interest rates and worries of currency debasement, means that gold will remain attractive as a safe-haven.”

Oil• We are raising 12-month Brent oil price

target to US$50/barrel versus US$45/barrel previously. Oil prices could be choppy for a bit longer as another wave of infections and recovering North American oil supply will likely weigh on oil price sentiment. The rise in gasoline and distillate inventories, which come amid the US summer driving season – when demand usually rises sharply, and inventories normally fall – also warns that easy gains in oil prices are behind us. This all comes as the market is preparing for the OPEC+ alliance to pull back from unprecedented production cuts in August. But any weakness in oil prices is likely to be temporary.

Currency• The broad US Dollar (USD) decline has

accelerated over the past four weeks, and there may be little in the horizon that could halt this decline. What we may be seeing is a broad-based USD sell-o� beyond the typical risk-on/risk-o� dynamics.

• In the near term, the virus situation in the US remains severe, and it is a negative factor for the USD. Uncertainty about �scal policy support for the US economy also weighs on the greenback and may even be structural negative for the greenback. Meanwhile, a dovish Federal Reserve means US Treasury yields will be depressed, further compromising the rate di�erential advantage of the USD.

• Thus, USD-negative drivers are in plain sight. The issue is that everyone

• We expect oil demand to continue to grind higher and next year might surprise on the upside if international trade recovers. In addition, OPEC+ compliance is likely to remain strong and support oil prices, while radical reductions in drilling across the world should remain in place until oil prices start to rise above US$50/barrel.

Gold• Gold has outshone other reserve

currencies such as the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR) and Swiss Franc (CHF) this year. Risk of central banks attempting to in�ate away a debt overhang in a world of near-zero interest rates and worries of currency debasement should keep gold as a “haven” asset of choice.

• Gold is well supported by falling US real yields. This will limit corrections and keep gold as a “haven” asset of choice versus other traditional “safe assets” such as government bonds, given that the bene�ts of declining nominal yields are mostly exhausted with interest rates at virtually zero in the US and little indication that the Fed intends to drop them into negative territory.

• Gold’s rise is also an indication of currency debasement fears stoked by expansion of central bank balance sheets. Gold does not have the comparative negatives of other “haven” currencies such as the USD, JPY, EUR or CHF, as central banks can print money but cannot print gold.

is on the same side of the boat now, and price movements are starting to look stretched. This leaves room for a potential USD rebound. In particular, the major currencies are running into key support/resistance levels against the USD, and any sign of fatigue may quickly develop into a stronger USD as pro�t-taking kicks in.

• In Asia, broad-based USD weakness means stronger Asian currencies against the greenback. However, we see several factors that are also supportive of the USD vis-à-vis Asian currencies. In the near term, Sino-US tension and a tight correlation between USD-CNH (Chinese currency) and selected USD-Asia currency pairs, may o�er support to the USD vis-à-vis Asian currencies.

• Portfolio in�ows into Asia have also

softened. In addition, we note the ongoing weakness of aggregate Asian economic prints (except for China) relative to US and Europe. This should also limit the room that Asian currencies have to appreciate.

• On the Singapore Dollar (SGD) front, even though the USD/SGD has broken lower, the SGD NEER (nominal e�ective exchange rate) remains anchored to the parity level. This suggests that the USD/SGD decline re�ects broader USD weakness, rather than any domestic SGD-positive drivers.

• Note that the correlation between the USD/SGD and the DXY (USD) Index is also tight. Thus, do not rule out further declines in the USD/SGD, especially if the broad USD continues to capitulate.

“Hong Kong’s GDP surprised on the downside with a contraction of 9.0% year-on-year (YoY) although the decline narrowed slightly from the downwardly revised growth of -9.1% YoY in the �rst quarter. Private consumption (-14.5% YoY, largest fall on record despite pent-up demand and relief measures), �xed investments (-20.6% YoY, the worst since the second quarter of 1999) and the exports of services (record -46.6 per cent YoY) remained the main drags amid the Covid-19 shock. The exports of goods turned out to be a bright spot with the decline narrowing from 9.7% YoY in the �rst quarter to 2.1% YoY in the second quarter. This could be attributed to the re-opening of the global economy from May and China’s recovery. Moving into the third quarter, the resurgence of Covid-19 is set to complicate the recovery. With most of the economic activities coming to a near-standstill amid the strictest containment measures since the coronavirus outbreak, local consumption, �xed investments and exports of services may remain mired in a downtrend. On a positive note, the economic contraction in the third quarter may still narrow from here given the low base e�ect and the benign recovery of other major economies. In conclusion, we expect GDP to fall by 6 to 7% depending on the Covid-19 development.”

• Hong Kong’s economy shrank for the fourth consecutive quarter and missed expectation by contracting 9% YoY in the second quarter. The decline narrowed slightly from the down-wardly revised growth of -9.1% YoY in the �rst quarter. Also, the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter (qoq) growth contracted at a milder rate than in the �rst quarter by 0.1%.

• Zooming in, the decline in private consumption widened to a record 14.5% YoY in the second quarter, due to worsening unemployment, weak wage prospects and social-distancing measures. These indicate that a combination of slowdown in new infections, pent-up demand, relief measures and positive wealth e�ect from the stock market and housing market rally were not a game changer for the local consumption.

• Worse still, �xed investments plunged by 20.6% YoY, the worst since the

second quarter of 1999 as business sentiment remained soft amid the lingering e�ects of the Covid-19 shock and dire economic outlook.

• Externally, as the travel restrictions were tightened from late March, exports of services shrank by record 46.6% YoY. By contrast, the exports of goods turned out to be a bright spot with the decline narrowing from 9.7% YoY in the �rst quarter to 2.1% YoY in the second quarter. This could be attributed to the re-opening of global economy from May and the China’s recovery.

• Moving into the third quarter, the resurgence of Covid-19 reinforces the fact that the road to recovery will be a bumpy ride. With most of the economic activities coming to a near-standstill amid the strictest containment measures since the coronavirus outbreak, we may see a new wave of bankruptcies and layo�s

especially in the hardest-hit sectors including F&B, tourism, retail and hospitality. We expect overall unemployment rate (6.2% in the second quarter) will rise further towards 7%. Meanwhile, local consumption, �xed investments and exports of services may remain mired in a downtrend as a result of virus resurgence.

• On a positive note, the economic contraction in the second quarter may still narrow from here given the low base e�ect and the benign recovery of major economies. For the fourth quarter, the outlook will hinge largely on the Covid-19 development. In conclusion, we tip a recession of 6% for 2020 on the assumption that there will be additional relief measures to help put a �oor under the damaged economy. However, further downside is still possible should Covid-19 situation keep worsening.

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CARIE LIEconomist, Treasury Research, Treasury Division, OCBC Wing Hang

Hong Kong’s Recovery Remains A Long Way O�

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